NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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This is a really strong winter storm signal. That is all.
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With all that being said, the ICON, GFS, and CMC were all colder than their previous runs and all had major winter storms for central NC. CMC and ICON are even more expansive winter storms, but are both trash models
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It just wants to snow in Virginia this year. DC-Fredericksburg has had a banner year for a Nina
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If you’re referring to 12z yesterday then yes but it is colder than 0z with much more snow even here in triangle where we didn’t have any at 0z
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Canadian wasn’t warmer. It’s acceptable. 24+ hour storm
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CMC with a 1052 dropping into the dakotas lol
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If the GFS slows down 12 hours that’s a snowstorm for NC, not ice. Track is good
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GFS looks like it will be a major winter storm for the northern half of NC into VA. Big improvements. Still too fast
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GFS gonna be colder. Looks more amped so far
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I may be wrong, but amped might be better here given the airmass north of the storm. Assuming amped doesn’t bring it inland, the more amped solutions seem to be pulling cold air in more efficiently vs the strung out solutions. All I’ll say about the southern jet and I’ve been saying this for a few days, this is a big dog pattern
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Icon really slowed down. That’s going to be our key here. It’s starting to seem simple how we get a big storm. As for track, small differences matter. ICON rides the coast, mixed bag for us. I don’t care about that at this point. Give me a slowed down, phased storm that can actually play with what looks like a primo airmass, worry about specifics later
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Every model has now thrown out at least 1 weenie solution for this system lol
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ICON a little different from earlier…. Huge storm
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@BornAgain13sitting pretty
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It hasn’t been very accurate of late with a couple recent systems but it has been very similar to EPS with this upcoming storm. Maybe a blind squirrel will find a nut this time?
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Y’all are underselling the AI model… that’s about as cold as look as we can get for the storm.
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6z Euro looked much improved up top and seemed to be setting up further south less amped and colder… Markedly different than 0z
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We’re at day 7 we couldn’t trust it if we were in the bullseye right now. Euro and UK are concerning, they don’t get it done with the cold. Thankfully eps and GEFS are colder than their ops. I’d hug ensembles at this range, also ensembles seem to be in fairly good agreement across suites
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Finished with 2.06” of rain. Temp up to a balmy 42.6
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EURO sucked but EPS looked like a significant storm. H5 on euro is completely different then everything else, it dumps the cold straight into Texas with a mega high centered near Oklahoma, hence we get a cutter. EURO AI was a major snowstorm. GFS still strung out.
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We never cracked 40. High of 39.4 and a low of 33.6 1.73” in the rain gauge for the event. We’ll see how much more we get through the morning
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I still feel pretty good. The overall setup looks great and the storm is still showing. 7-8 days out that’s where we want to be. Definitely want to see a slower more consolidated storm start to show but euro and Canadian are showing that and GFS took baby steps that direction this evening
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Agreed this is a beautiful setup. Especially in a Nina. This one will sting if we don’t capitalize because this is a major winter storm pattern and given the timing it is very likely our last chance this year.
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CMC is an epic sleet bomb for a lot on NC and then turns into a nor easter and big storm for MA Agreed. A strung out mess isn’t going to do it. Canadian and Euro are what we want. Gfs from last night developed the second wave, kind of like the Canadian is doing
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Agreed, but there were some positive changes as well. Slightly slower, stronger HP and better ridging north of us. Leads to a colder solution. It also hangs some energy back, which could be the way we get a storm here. Not an awesome run but not a total disaster like 18z
