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NorthHillsWx

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  1. NorthHillsWx
    I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden.
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Tell me, what does the sanitarium trending “hot” after the 12z model runs mean?
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Let me be clear- these are not imby posts. This has shifted from Blacksburg Virginia to oriental NC in 24 hours. You’re talking hundreds of miles and also even in the heaviest areas just a fraction of the QPF outputs from yesterday. This is not saying trends aren’t good for some on the board. Down east folks looking good for sure
  4. NorthHillsWx
    I guess everyone is banking on more expansive precip shield. Interesting
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Burrel literally pumped it into reality
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Just remember guys, fabulous February will save us
  7. NorthHillsWx
    It really may never snow appreciably in Raleigh again. I just don’t know what it will take. Striking out last weekend hurt but was tolerable bc we had the rug pulled out on like day 4-5 but to have the rug pulled out at 36 hours is stupid bad. Going back your really have to go back a long time to find a good snow here. December 2018 was a hefty event but it almost all fell late at night and has changed to plain rain by mid morning which took a lot of luster from it
  8. NorthHillsWx
    This is one of the worst modeled events in a long time. To see such drastic shifts inside 48 hours is for sure not the norm.
  9. NorthHillsWx
    So ATL ended their snowless streak?
  10. NorthHillsWx
    December 2018. Then had 6” of puddles in my backyard that evening after all the rain
  11. NorthHillsWx
    Pathetic
  12. NorthHillsWx
    Not good. 1-3” and we’re on the line
  13. NorthHillsWx
    Given the 12z modeling and assuming these trends don’t correct this evening I could see RAH dropping watches west of Wake
  14. NorthHillsWx
    12z Euro is a dumpster fire for everyone outside the costal plain. Look away now if you had anything invested in this Triangle west…
  15. NorthHillsWx
    I claimed a spot at the first sign of trouble last storm but I’m staying out of the sanitarium this storm, going to stay positive. Oh wait, crap
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Almost identical to Canadian
  17. NorthHillsWx
    Yuck, talk about lack of saturation through the column. Definitely going to struggle on the outside edge of this. Very cold dry air
  18. NorthHillsWx
    This would align with my thoughts, just take 1 inch off every total there across the board
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Canadian STILL shows a 2-4” snowstorm for Raleigh. I get it, the trends are concerning. I feel the same way. But even so, all the reliable models still align for a 2-4” snowfall over central NC…. A month ago we’d all be jumping for joy
  20. NorthHillsWx
    ^^^this. We were looking at a 1-3” sleet storm 2 days ago now, a 2-4” snowstorm with arctic air and high ratios. I see nothing cataclysmic from the modeling at this point. Definitely on edge but we’re still in a good spot
  21. NorthHillsWx
    GFS held serve. Beggars can’t be choosers, yes totals are not super high but RDU looks really good for a 2-4” snowfall and temps in the 20’s STILL despite the doom and gloom here. That would be an awesome storm
  22. NorthHillsWx
    If y’all wanna see a migration to the sanitarium wait for the RDU folks to have gone through last weekends swing and whiff to the west then have a beautiful setup for days and days only to have the rug pulled out from under them inside 48 hours with a swing and whiff to the east
  23. NorthHillsWx
    I will say this- I’m not pushing the panic button yet unless the euro/cmc cave at 12z. CAMs struggle with LP development due to convective feedback and we really aren’t in the timeframe thar is considered to be their wheelhouse yet. The 6z euro and 0z Canadian had actually trended very favorably from their previous runs. Definitely more on edge than 24 hours ago but still feel like central NC-east is in a good spot
  24. NorthHillsWx
    A VERY good analog of this system in the January 28 event last year. Arctic front with late LP development along it. This storm has colder air to work with but dang the Synoptics line up incredibly similar to this setup and the snow map is very similar to what modeling is showing
  25. NorthHillsWx
    An amazing run for that area. Just hours and hours of light-moderate snow. Would be an incredible event
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