NorthHillsWx

Neuse River at Clayton just below major flood stage

5.18” in the rain bucket. Looks to be finished up here. Pretty significant rain event lots of small scale flooding around the neighborhood including creeks and street flooding

This is going to be an impressive event given most of the state if not all will see at least 2-3 inches of rainfall with many areas in the 4-6”+ range. Definitely widespread and trended/verified on high end of every forecast. Widespread flood reports across the state with Charlotte and NW piedmont hit especially hard

Looks like western wake has seen a relative rainfall minimum. RDU is reposting only a hair above 2.5” for the event whereas areas east of there in the county are in the 4-7” range

Pushing towards the 5” mark. Thankfully the dry conditions we’ve had the last two months seems to be mitigating the flood risk. Still, plenty of small creek flooding in my neighborhood and standing water on roads. Mod-heavy rain continues

Rainfall rates have picked back up last 30 min after a relative lull. Ticking over the 4.5” mark at the house now

Crabtree Creek is approaching flood stage. The deluge has transitioned to a steady moderate-heavy rain. Looks to continue for better part of the day.

I think maybe the Danville Regional Airport reporting site would be a good nearby source. They’ve had over 5.25” so far

Had to recheck the rain gauge. Now over 4.00” giving me over 1” in last 50 minutes, downpour continues

Looks rather juicy

Current warnings

Starting a thread for observations from last night/today’s heavy rain event. Looks like widespread totals of 3-6 inches will verify and some heavier amounts likely. Here in Raleigh were quickly adding up the total. Up to 3.5” and lots to come. Widespread flash flood warnings now up

Bad reports of flooding in Iredell county

Strangely it’s been very dry here compared to the western half of the state. I think we’ve been in a two month deficit for the first time in what feels like forever. That will definitely help mitigate the flood potential here somewhat though with the current rates it may not matter much

Almost 3 inches in the rain bucket and the good stuff is just now getting to the triangle area. I think we’re going to land on the high end. I’d be shocked at less than 5 inches storm total looking at the radar here. Oh yea, 65 degrees and pouring atm

I’d rather be burning days in this pattern now than in December or January. I guess that’s my point. If it doesn’t change (last year) then we can sulk in March. Patterns that actually allow sustained cold are so fleeting in the south I feel the odds are greater we get it in the good months if we don’t waste it now. Absolutely no science or anecdotal evidence to that statement just a gut feeling I’ve had having lived my life in the south. If we were locked in an arctic pattern now we’d be enjoying our November morning freezes for a week then hoping for the pattern to “reload” until January

Already over an inch of rain here. Had some good thunder earlier. Rain bands look to be setting up nicely to our south. Feels like this has the markings of being an overachiever in the rainfall department

Eta is now the second highest ACE producing storm of the season. Pretty respectable for November 11

Convection has really collapsed on IR looks to be short lived at hurricane intensity

Any recon scheduled for Eta? Looks like the H word on sat even with the slight displacement of the center

There should be a pinned thread at the end of the year and awards given out for posts that aged the worst. Some of the ones from August complaining that the long range GFS not showing development meant 2020 was going to be a dud of a tropical season belong there as well

Some pretty decent footage from key largo last night. As I mentioned before this is evidence the system was very near a cat 1 when that core briefly wrapped up last night. Some of these winds certainly seem to be close hurricane strength. Doesn’t really matter but would’ve made for yet another hurricane landfall in the US during this crazy season. Certainly came close

Radar looks like the storm ramped up right at landfall and probably was near hurricane strength. Given the low topped storms, it’s unlikely sustained hurricane force winds occurred or mixed down effectively but it was probably close. Some gusts to near hurricane force were recorded. Key largo looks to have taken the brunt of that. Since then dry air choked off the core that had formed, a process we will likely see play out over and over again next couple days. Beyond that, guidance has definitely trended towards the storm missing the connection with the passing trough and in turn meandering and winding down harmlessly in the gulf as it feels the influence of dry continental air, shear, and decreasing SSTs. Still not certain but that’s been the trend overnight

11/9 looking more like a mid-season tropical outlook

Had to turn AC back on yesterday. Inside temp had risen to 78. High of 79 low of 54. Torch continues