NorthHillsWx

I think it's a bit larger than that...

All rain in Garner. About to head home to take my last meetings from the house before Raleigh panics and everyone hits the road at once.

I agree on the DP front. Just ready to see appreciable precip blossoming as the coastal takes over and we start to see some moisture transport. At work in Garner I can confirm that light rain has started. No flurries or sleet pellets here. Not sure the temp

DP continues to fall at RDU, down to 25. Precip is sure having a tough time advancing N and to the west. Not sure if this is a bad omen for less moisture or a delayed arrival...

I'm not sure where you're going to manufacture crashing surface temps down there but good luck! Pays to be optimistic

When people are posting about there maybe being an extra "slop" to a raindrop when it hits their car, you know we're desperate to see a flake

Sleet/Graupel in Garner. No rain mixed in. Dry air doing its thang

EXACTLY. My only disappointment was this may not turn into the higher end weenie storm. This is still going to be a good snow for much of the state and I think every county will see flakes. That's pretty rare! If we get 2" in Raleigh I'll be happy. 4" and I'll be ecstatic. Those are my thresholds here for the storm. I think everything is on track for the forecast.

I'm guilty… Only reason I did at work was it was within a degree of my home weather station which I've found to be accurate. Shows my mental state hoping for a flake and entering the anxiety period. Starting an event in the mid 40's, in the middle of the day, in late february is not great for that anxiety

Yep, I've thought it'll look impressive for y'all for a while tonight. I think you are set for this storm! Makes me miss my time living in Winterville.

44/28 at home. DP's come down from 36 this morning. Hoping DP's keep falling before the precip moves in. Need all the wetbulbing we can muster. NE wind has gotten gusty. Smells like snow even if it doesn't feel like it yet haha.

Where are you getting that? Huntsville and Florence are reading 39 each with Heavy Rain

At work in Garner and my house is 44.

WRAL's model has persistently pushed the start of snow back and the onset of rain earlier. Last night, for what it's worth, that model had the snow start time for Raleigh proper around 1-2. While I think it's bringing the rain in too early, especially based on downstream reports, it also may be capturing the fact that it is in the mid 40's at 9:30 AM and will probably rise a couple more degrees until precip sets in. I would not bank on an earlier switch to snow at this time given the warm BL that will take an army to overcome. That is the big change and I think some of the globals handled that better and were putting out lower snow totals accordingly. This is not all doom and gloom. I think current forecasts are right on track for this area and points east. This is ONLY in reference to being able to pick up the upper ends of some of the models we saw yesterday and last night (6 inch snows).

We got down to 38 and are already up to 45. I'm not going to sugarcoat it, that's not a good place to be with precip set to move in in the next 3 hours. Good news is DP's have FINALLY tanked into the 20's. That was a painful fall but they are crashing with the NE wind. I'm not model watching anymore they will bounce around with their clown maps until the very end but temp wise, we are running a couple degrees above where the globals (and NAM) had us yesterday and are in line with the HRRR. I did not think we'd exceed 41-42 today. Radar looks very NAM-like which is good but I am worried about folks west of the influence of the coastal. West of the Triangle may have more precip issues than we thought as even the NAM has trended more to the globals on that western cutoff. Radar watching will be the only way to confirm that. I would hit the panic button if precip is not gaining more of a WSW to ENE movement and pushing up into the Triad area by lunchtime. I like my forecast from yesterday and am sticking to it. I think RDU is a lock for 2-3 in and the coastal plain looks to be good for 4+ in. If we had better temps (as always) I think Max snow potential would be doubled at least but I know we will waste at least 0.25" here on wetbulbing and white rain. CLT-Upstate, I still don't think anyone outside of elevation will see any accumulation. Just not those areas' storm, unfortunately.

I think that is the most accurate snow map for this event I've seen.

Consistency...

Hard to melt rain puddles!

Sleeting in Garner at work. Just stepped outside

I don't know what their Warning criteria is but the text in the watch area sounds like they are expecting 2-3 in of snow which is in line with the WWA for the Raleigh forecast area

COLD NE wind is a blowing in! down to 48 and drizzly. Haven't checked the guage yet but it'll be around .25" I think.

I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm

What are we thinking temps will realistically be at go-time with this one across the board? Do we think BL temps warming into the 40's are going to be an issue? Models all over the place. Living here most of my life has taught me to usually go on the high end of guidance for an event starting in the afternoon, and low-end of guidance with the event starting in the morning (assuming radiational cooling took place without full cloud cover). I know we will wet bulb but, just from my experience, it usually takes much longer than we expect or models show.

If I'm chasing snow 800 miles away it will be done on an airplane and I will be going to a ski resort

2 days ago: "Temps are unequivocally not going to be an issue". I knew better: Agreed if you're only talking about seeing snow fall. For accumulations, temps are always an issue. Take the 2.8 system for example. Many areas outside of North Georgia and Oconee and Pickens counties saw snow fall with no mixing, but very minimal accumulations. Mid and upper levels were excellent so it stayed snow but temps at the ground never fully cooled below the 32-34 range and really cut into accumulations. With a system like this where precip looks to be meager at best, wasting any precip waiting for temps to drop that extra degree will significantly cut into snow accumulations. I agree the atmosphere is not an issue but the fact is the baseline temps are going to rely on evaporative cooling and rates to reach a point where accumulations are possible. It's not going to start snowing at 32 degrees and temps fall from there. I'm not going to be the "ground temp" and "sun angle" guy, but those in the upstate and charlotte areas might have something to say about that from the last system as the only efficient accumulations occurred at night or early morning (I know that's also when precip peaked with that system, but it does matter). That being said, the focus continues to be on pushing more moisture further north and letting the temp battle play out from there. That has been the limiting factor with this setup and continues to be so. The trends have been positive today from that angle. I know the take the cold first then worry about moisture approach, but to the previous post's point, cold is not an issue for it to snow with this system. It only will become an issue if we get to the stage of talking accumulations.