NorthHillsWx

Well someone already mentioned Sun angle the other day so that’s out of the way…

I felt that way too when I took my dog for a walk yesterday afternoon without a jacket. I’d rate this winter as a B- so far on the following conditions: Good: 1) warning level snow that was all snow from start to finish and preceded and followed by arctic temperatures 2) 2 advisory events with coatings of snow 3) WSW with probably right around warning criteria ice imby 4) best extended cold stretch since January 2018 Bad: 1) December 2) near misses on both advisory events and the ice storm where the system trended just too far west (that was a painful miss given modeling a few days prior. As was the one last weekend where we ended with a coating) 3) excellent pattern and still only half our seasonal snowfall 4) being a bit of a snow hole compared to eastern and western areas

Anyone know any way for the Monday/Tuesday system to trend colder? Would it require a stronger LP? It’s so close but temps up to 850 are isothermal so it’s not like there’s cold air just off the ground. The track the EURO shows is honestly ideal for snowfall in our area just can’t catch a break this year. Too far west, plenty of cold air but too Far East, now perfect track and no cold air. Such is life in the South

That’s crazy. The clouds broke and we topped out near 71 here yesterday and places in the NW triad were sitting around 40 at the same time

It’s probably the influence of that weak GL low but man if only there was SOME cold air Monday/Tuesday bc that system looks better and better. Gonna be tough seeing rain and 36 degrees with a coastal taking an ideal track in early February

From a Raleigh perspective I can’t hate too much on this winter. We had a good storm and we had sustained cold. Missing out narrowly on several events did stink and having a lot of opportunities and coming away with one real system definitely feels like a waste but it was fun tracking for an entire month and seeing flakes fly numerous times. Always want more but thankful for what we had

Hard to think about winter right now. Sun is out and pushing 70 at the moment! Took the dog for a walk during my lunch break and forgot how much I love these kind of days

Sun is out and we’re pushing 70! 69.4 at the moment Edit: we broke 70. 70.3 at the moment

The good news in the long range is overall I see no sign of an extended torch. The SER never looks to get established and we mostly keep the +PNA, though there are mixed signals with that mid month. Western ridging seems to be fairly prominent throughout so i don’t think winter is dead and we likely will have another shot at a storm

We’re at 3.4” here. 3.2” from one event and 2 small events where I measured 0.10” each time. We’re still below ours but what hurts is the potential. We had storms go east, west, and most recently south of us. We had a nice snow event and extended cold so our winter is definitely not a bust but man what could’ve been if any of the 4 events we just missed on had happened differently

Globals are now trying to pop a decent coastal system Monday/Tuesday. Sadly, there is no cold air and it’s all rain

Pretty warm here. 57 and cloudy. Low of 50 last night

Crickets this morning… telling

That’s called being burnt out from all the misses we endure every season and when forecasting the low end you’ll be correct 95% of the time in our forum outside the mountain folk

EURO definitely winning the battle on this storm. Hasn’t really budged. GFS has thrown about every possible solution out there

06z GFS has completely caved to other guidance. Flatter, warmer and weaker. Looks very similar to Euro and Ukie now

All I know is 5 straight weeks of winter storm tracking is ridiculous. I thought Mother Nature was giving us a break?!?! All this for 3.4” of snow and a couple flizzards

My brother lives in Urbana and they’ve had 2 5”+ events and a couple smaller events this year! This last one they had borderline blizzard conditions. Crazy the difference 45 minutes to your east

Sadly, if you didn’t capitalize on the pattern we are exiting, the odds are not in your favor going forward. Definitely feels like a bit of a wasted pattern, at least for RDU. I know Charlotte/triad/upstate/Virginia/South Carolina/NE NC/Va Beach folks are all happy, LOL. We had one decent event out of a month straight of chances. At least we had a good snow but man what could’ve been

It will get it done, but it’s 1038 over Maine at the beginning, it very quickly moves to Newfoundland. I should have elaborated. Big CAD need the high moving into that position with the precip, not leaving. Even with the cold push on the EURO it has nothing to sustain it and the only reason it hangs on is bc the system is so weak you don’t have the 850 warmth we always see with stronger systems. My point is, in this setup we’re going to have to thread the needle to see anything more than nuisance ice. The Euro is the best bet but sadly it’s on an island and not impressive to begin with

I think most in our forum would take this if presented Christmas week… Pretty amazing turnaround in January and forum-wide winter weather

29.3 this morning. Probably our last morning cracking the 20’s for a few days. I can’t even remember the last morning we weren’t in the 20’s or lower. Definitely had the cold air around this year, unfortunate we haven’t been able to cash in more but enjoyed our moderate snowstorm. Best winter since 2017-18 for sure and it’s not really close

The Euro definitely has a stronger cold push to begin- but 1038 over Maine is not going to get it done especially if the system is stronger than depicted.

I’m just not seeing anything that screams “major” ice storm. There is retreating HP, the timing will have to be perfect with the transient HP to have any frozen, the antecedent cold air is marginal, and this all relies on the system staying relatively weak and not routing the cold air before a wedge can get established. Long story short, this looks like in-situ CAD and some ice but I really doubt this is a major ice storm, at least from the setup I’m seeing

Yay?