NorthHillsWx

Holy moly the GFS drops a good storm BEFORE the storm, then goes boom!

One other note before I have to go back to work- these “clown maps” will likely verify with this storm being the high ratios we should have with pure arctic air. Usually you shave a good % off those maps due to warm ground/borderline temps/mixed precip, but in the all-snow areas we actually don’t have anything I see to negate accumulation. By the time this starts it will have been in the 20’s for hours and will be falling into temps in the lower-mid 20’s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some people shocked with how well this piles up under those conditions compared to a “normal” event here

Check, please

RGEM has been rock solid. If it scores the coup here I think I’ll have to reevaluate it vs the NAM. That’s a heck of a Carolina’s/SE Virginia snowstorm right there folks

Oh I’m in no way saying that. Yesterday there was the question of whether we’d get ANYTHING other than the fropa. Now it’s looking more likely to have a decent snow. I’ll be so happy with 2 inches of snow falling into 25 degrees I can’t even tell y’all

ICON came in just about the same. Held serve

The dam has burst and the NW trend has hit

None who jumped ship yesterday are allowed back onboard. Oh, crap

Well well well, we may be approaching a little model consensus at 0 hour???

Nope, way slower, much further west. Way more amped too. 06z had it well off of Virginia Beach 12z has it sitting off hatteras and wayyy closer and I’m not just talking about the red L

NAM was a GREAT run for I-95 and was almost back to the Triangle! That’s a massive improvement across the board EDIT: It snows to Raleigh/Henderson line

At this point, which models have had the least run to run volatility? That’s what I would pay attention to. I’m looking at you, RGEM/CMC and GFS/EURO to an extent. Blend those and I believe you have your answer here. NAM has been all over the place and I do not trust any other short range CAM inside of 12 hours

NAM getting back in the game!!!!

Before this begins, whatever way this breaks, just want to thank the Mets on here for posting and helping us amateurs interpret a challenging setup. This is one well look back on for sure as one of the more complex winter storms in terms of late development and lack of consistent model support all the way through to 0 hour. I love the conversation on this board and appreciate the insight from those posters who know much more about our atmosphere than I ever will. Now let’s reel this one in for someone!

One thing I’ve noticed on a lot of the modeling is to slow down the frontal passage (100% believe this). What this allows for is the changeover to snow to occur for a longer duration for the Northern piedmont areas. It also looks like one of those shortwaves tries to inject a little energy at this time as well. We kinda looked past this first round yesterday, but it may really have the potential for areas west of 95 to be the main event. Some modeling is showing a 1-3 inch snow with this. The RAP and the GFS both have trended this way specifically. Something to watch but I can tell you if I got a 1-3” snow I don’t care what happens in the afternoon that would just be gravy

It did hold serve

I know haha I saved some screenshots from WRAL over the last 24 hours. “Biggest storm in 3 years” “Increasing snowfall for the Triangle”

All I’ll say for my Triangle folks is if we reel this storm in, we’ve earned it. It is so hard to get a few inches of snow here and this storm is the embodiment of our frustration for the last 4 years

I like having the RGEM in our wheelhouse. It’s been very consistent with this storm

GFS/ICON/CMC/RGEM all show a significant winter storm for central NC. EURO has it too but it’s a little further east. NAM/HRRR/ and a selection of CAMs have nothing.

We’re inside 24 hours now and there is a suite of models thar gives me anywhere between 4-8 inches of snow and another suite that doesn’t have anything. No in between. At this stage I have no idea what to trust. This is that rare setup where you’re going to have to have to go against a significant amount of modeling either way you forecast this storm inside 24 hours. One of these scenarios will be right and one will be completely wrong and we still don’t know which to roll with inside 24 hours, amazing

Pretty Euro run. The fact most of this board has jumped off the cliff due to the NAM (which went from a major storm to no storm in 2 runs) while the Euro has been relatively stable shows how much pain central NC folks have endured the last 4 years

I think models will come back some overnight. 9 times out of 10 in the SE the NW precip shield is under modeled. It usually benefits our posters in SW VA so we (triangle) rarely see it. I like a 1-3” event across most of central NC falling into the mid 20’s. BRING IT! I think there is still some potential for more but this looks to be lessening. A 1-3” snow where everything sticks is a great storm

Yea- that would be pure powder too

Looks like they bit on the “no storm” idea if Friday morning is the timeframe. That would be the precip from the front