NorthHillsWx

If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes

Big, wet flakes now mixed in. Got the Carolina special ongoing: rain/sleet/snow Edit: now mostly snow, 70% flakes, 30% slop. Definitely rate driven as expected

Rain/sleet mix in north hills area. Temp dropped a couple degrees when it started, down to 37 from 39

For the Raleigh area, the storm will be a: BOOM if we see 2 inches BUST if we only receive token flakes Always gotta set those expectations!

My Final Call: Raleigh: 1/2-1 Durham: 1-2 Greensboro: 2-4 Charlotte: T-1/2 Asheville: 3-5

Latest HRRR looks to be good for central N.C.

Exactly what the Euro depicts. I didn’t think we’d start as snow but I guess that’s on the table now

Always exciting to be under the first winter weather headline of the year. Liking the trends today in the Raleigh area. Think my odds of getting the grass covered are north of 50% now

That’s pretty conservative, even for RAH lol

The Canadian was a very good run for N.C. the Triad into SW Va would have warning level snows and the triangle would be advisory level for the most part. Gets that deform band going and goes across the whole state pretty much. Amounts not high East of Triad but widespread snow, and less splotchy. Sorry upstate, tho

My thoughts are NWS Raleigh will issue a WWA from Randolph through Durham and up to Vance county tonight at some point for 1-2” of snow. East of there I doubt anything gets issued unless a deform band sets up and it will be a quick fire issuance. I’m actually feeling better about most areas in the triangle getting at least a coating of snow which is a win and some areas could have a few surprises.

Haha. I doubt we will ever be able to accurately forecast where they will setup in advance, but we can nail down the most likely areas for them to do so given the placement of the ULL. Beyond that it’s all now casting and I guess that was my point that overall this system has been very much locked in for days now

Has trended better and better with the formation of that deformation band. I mentioned that the other day as being a possibility as the energy transfers to the coastal and that area of dynamic forcing moves East but it’s only now been consistently showing up on the hi-res models. Triangle-East hinges on this development

These ULL situations are modeled so much better than so many other winter storms. Details certainly have changed run to run and if you’re living and dying by snow maps you’re probably on about you last thread by this point but the storm track and most other synoptic features have been locked in for several days. Forecasting the mesoscale environment and features will be the challenge for sure and that’s ultimately what will define this storm but overall I can go back 3-4 days and models don’t look much different than they do now

3K Nam would make a lot of people happy on here

Awesome work. This all seems reasonable at this point

Turned on the news... Had to head back to the storm page, quickly. Good lord. I haven’t seen any significant changes in overall modeling and this system looks on track. It will be a foothills, eastern slopes jackpot. Outside of there will be rate dependent and pretty much anyone along from Salisbury to Raleigh could see a C-2” snow but it will be localized and difficult to pin down. Most will not have accumulation. Triad and southern VA will have 1-3” maybe a few 4” totals if banding sets up. Better timing, ULL support, and more widespread snow. It will be more patchy East

I don’t think this snow map is very far off from what reality will be given this setup. Northern Triad/eastern foothills seem to consistently be the areas where it wants to snow on most models and 1-4 inch amounts seem reasonable there. Given the easterly flow, some elevation bonus, the foothills and eastern slopes look to be the jackpot. As the precip works East, an increasing them has been an area where precip falls off as the energy transfer occurs. This is a very common look with ULL energy transferring to a surface low off the coast. There will definitely be a “screw zone” or cutoff area to the east of the first thump of precip. This area may not get rates to overcome the warm BL and likely sees little to no accumulation. Further East, triangle/NE NC, everything will depend on what particular bands do. The euro has this well represented with some pockets of 1”+. Given the time of day, marginal to poor airmass, and relative lack of duration, it would take the SLP to get cranking and the formation of a DZ to produce more snow than shown. The GFS actually shows this but the column is just a hair too warm several thousand feet up. The GFS solution, if a hair cooler, would produce a nice secondary band further East. I think, my first call will and relative max of 4-8” on the eastern slopes and foothills including Asheville and hickory. I think the 85 and north area of the upstate sees 1-2 inches north of Greenville to Charlotte with little to no accumulation in those cities. There will be a sharp cutoff to this snow on the southern end but I think western Oconee county will see you to 2-4 inches while eastern parts don’t have any. This will progress through the extreme western upstate and into N.C. the triad will be a north of 85 event and I can see 2-4” there. For the immediate 85 area, mooresville, high point, Greensboro, East to roxboro, it’ll depend on where the energy transfer takes place and where a relative lack of dynamic banding occurs. This will extend into SW VA. Amounts will taper off north and East with Lynchburg to Richmond the cutoff for any snowfall accumulation of a coating or more. I’m going C-2” for these areas. East of there is more of a crapshoot and more dependent of small scale factors we can’t see yet. I’m thinking the triangle to NE NC and extreme SE VA will see highly localized snowfall of a C-1.5” max UNLESS that energy transfer happens sooner and the SL slings moisture in a deformation setup where rates overcome warm BL and last long enough. The other issue in this area will be getting sustained bands. There may be some pockets of heavy snow that taper to rain between bands. It is very hard to accumulate snow if it changes to rain on n lighter returns. I think the area that has the highest potential for this would be NE NC, Ricky Mount-Williamston-Roanoke rapids. I’m not forecasting that atm and will stick with a generic 0-1.5” across the entire area east of 85 with more areas in the 0” range and only localized accumulation elsewhere. Another negative of this storm will be the tendency for it to change to rain after the snowfall has ended. Some of these accumulations will certainly be short lived and with hours until the boundary falls below freezing and warm ground temps, much of this will be gone by Saturday.

One side of my yard has 6 inches but the other side gets 1!

NAM was... not good

It’ll be funny when we get a 60 page storm thread that devolves into observations including the terms “ripping” “fatties” then actually seeing pics of someone’s car topped and white trash cans and someone claiming they got an inch somewhere in the sub forum, ahh winter in the SE page

The splotchy appearance on the models indicates a truth with an ULL setup and limited cold air: accumulations are likely to be localized and not widespread. It may end up difficult to pin down where they will occur bc rates will need to overcome warm BL temps to get snow to the ground and even more so for accumulation to occur. I do not doubt someone sees some snow stick outside of the mountains but nothing in this setup screams a widespread storm and it may be county-wide or smaller meso scale banding features that setup that will be difficulty to pinpoint and offer very small windows for snow to fall and stick. Obviously the chance for these features to setup decreases with less dynamics and less moisture and lift as some overnight guidance has trended. Interesting system but I wouldn’t bet the house on seeing anything past token flakes outside of the mountains almost until we are now casting

I know posting long range snow maps is a lesson in futility but this highlights the upcoming potential to have multiple storms through the period. Looks to be an exciting couple of weeks ahead

Any model that nails the Raleigh snow hole so perfectly has to verify 100% of the time I’d think

Love when this board comes alive. I’m still skeptical about this coming fridays system given the lack of cold air around but looks like we may have several shots down the road. I’ll let the experts continue and I love the discussion. Thanks everyone!