NorthHillsWx

FL winds around 75kt and surface winds around 60kt so far. Definitely on the cusp

About to make the first pass through the rough stuff. I’m thinking we get a quick update statement separate from the 2pm if they find hurricane force winds

Really thinking they’re going to find hurricane force winds in the NE quad. Looking as healthy on radar as it’s looked

Yep, pretty impressive wind values for outside the convection. With radar velocities remaining steady I think there’s a likelihood this is a very odd looking hurricane atm

Stronger more stacked cylclone= greater influence from mid level/upper level steering flow out of SW, more easterly track. Weak/exposed system= LLC riding more easterly components in low level steering flow, coc much further west Impacts for Tampa will be same regardless and likely maximized if the COC goes west of there by 20 miles bc that puts the strongest banding over the bay/city

And not one part of me would disagree unless they find definitive hurricane force winds at the time of the flight: call it what it is. I’m glad they held off, likely for the reason above, about increasing wind speeds based purely on radar data earlier. I think this storms window to be a hurricane is short. Increasing shear, decreasing oceanic heat content, and increasing influence from the eastern circulation being ashore means it has between now and when it passes offshore or near tampa to be a hurricane

Yea the radar velocities would seem to indicate that this is likely a hurricane, and if this storm continues to pull *some* convection westward enough to maintain that strong band near the center, the hurricane hunters will likely verify this is a minimal hurricane at this juncture. I’m pretty sure this is about the ceiling for Elsa though and that “eyewall” is very fragile. This will likely go through periods where the shear wins and it erodes just to have another convective burst make another attempt. In other words, she’s likely a minimal hurricane right now and I’d be expecting fluctuations in intensity through landfall though I could also see weakening once it passes Tampa and a lot of the circulation moves on land. Impacts will be the same regardless

Definitely making an attempt at a formative eyewall this hour. Wrapping some convection to the NW side of the circulation. Some pretty significant wind reports from the keys indicate it would not take a terrible amount of intensification for this to briefly become a minimal cane. Definitely would have the half-a-cane look though

It’s all east of the center, which is exposed

A lot if lightning near the center this morning. Elsa is clearly being hampered by the wind shear, and the center is partially exposed to the west of the convection. However, as it continues to pull away from cuba, and the shear vector aligns more with the forward motion, while traversing some hot water, I could see a small uptick in intensity. Likely would occur as the system moves north then north-northeast

RAH going with a wide swath of 1-3” from the western triangle eastward in NC

Qualifies as tightly clustered guidance

Remember when watching radar tonight, the MLC and SLC were NOT aligned when the storm made landfall. I think what a lot of folks are seeing as the surface low is actually the mid level rotation, noted in just about every reconnaissance flight leading to landfall

Verbatim this would be a fairly impactful storm for the Tampa bay metro area given the angle of approach, long fetch, and remaining in the strongest bands on the eastern side of the system for a long time. I could see some decent surge values and extended period of 50-70 mph gusts in this scenario, certainly nothing to scoff at for a major metro area

I’d be shocked if the triangle missed out on rain from this system given the track and angle of approach with an approaching trough that usually pulls moisture a bit north as the system interacts with it. Models have really not shown that but from experience that usually happens with tropical systems hitting the gulf coast and moving through our area, and the rain shield almost always ends up further north and west than forecast due to that interaction

WPC not enthralled with the western tracks

True, but it looks like Elsa is going to be really the only widespread source of rain through the forecast period. Subsidence on the backside of the system will limit what the trough moving through (feature kicking the system out) can produce. Beyond Elsa, models have been showing very few features that would promote anything other than isolated storms. So if Elsa doesn’t pan out for some areas, it’s looking like a dry stretch for those places

It is down, just such an abnormally high pressure for a 50 kt storm. Has been higher than you’d expect the entire life of the system even when it was a hurricane.

Grade A+ forecast on this one, even with gigantic model disagreement for days

“Down to 1005 mb” sounds like a typo

If the remnants of Elsa miss us to the east this will not come true

Elsa’s moment has come and gone. Going to take too much time given the poor convective envelope to organize and increase the intensity. It does seem to have become a much larger circulation so I bet it maintains through Cuba. Mid grade tropical storm for Florida

The development of an inflow channel on the south side of the system is a good sign of continued organization. Still a long way to go but this is the look of another intensifying phase

It does appear to have a nice burst of convection over the center, and maybe slightly less of the popcorn look. Let’s see if can maintain and we see corresponding pressure falls and contraction of the wind field. I’m still surprised to see a pressure above 1005 mb, meaning this thing has a lot of work to do and not much time to do it

Just off the northeastern coast of Jamaica