NorthHillsWx

Yea we were in between. Happy we got the 6.5” we did but man it was frustrating seeing posters near you seeing snow most of the day while mine turned to puddles in the downpour. We only picked up a dusting too the next day, that missed us to the north and west

Agreed- didn’t panic and have only changed their call map from 3-4”, to 1-2”, to 2-3”. A spread of 1-4” is not bad considering the hand we’ve been dealt the last 36 hours. Looks like we’re locked in to a 2-4” storm for many in central/eastern NC and I hope everyone on here enjoys every second of it even if 6”+ Maps from a few days ago don’t happen and it’s unlikely they will. This will be our best storm since January 2018 (I hate the December storm bc it snowed only at night and poured rain here all day while places 20 miles away got dumped on all day). This frankly given the cold air and chance for rapid accumulation will be a fantastic storm regardless our final tally

I think RAH is spot on with their call. I don’t see Raleigh busting too much higher than the 2-3” forecast. With that even if we get 4” will it be a bust from impacts? Nope. Only those on here will know the difference. This will be a high impact event though given cold antecedent temps and cold temps during snow, much higher impact than 2 inches normally would be

Woke up to a dusting. 26.6 out this morning.

Below freezing now- all frozen falling too. 32.0, still falling. Could get a little interesting if we spend any time under some returns. Some accumulation showing

Literally depends on your returns overhead. We’re cooled enough for all snow but not getting the saturation needed at height for flakes to form

I can confirm that it only snowed with the high returns. Actually good sized flakes too. We’re back to mostly sleet with a few mangled flakes. Wish we had real precip

Upstream around Charlotte looks a little juicier than I thought it would

Sleet/Snow mix in north hills now, temp still crashing, 32.9

Wish we had precip… Mist and 33.2, crashing still

Flizzard

Details at range = non important. Pattern, trends, fact it shows a storm = very important. Atmosphere is a river and models predict downstream currents and seeing anything show consistent on a model is gold to hone in on. As for the details (like clown maps, reason we call them clown maps), no model is even half decent until 5 days out. That’s just where we are with technology these days

34.7 now, crashing. Wish we had precip

Wow, temp had crashed recently. I drove home at 5:45 and (car thermometer) it was 41 when I pulled up. Now reading 36.4 on the weather station

Would not shock me to hit that tomorrow. Gut feeling ratios will bring us to the promised land

Fish: forecasting is hard, there are mixed signals, I have no confidence in any scenario. We could get 5 inches, we could get a flake. 1-3” is my call. Lol

As eyewall pointed out, it was much closer to phasing like some of the other models did. This was a good run in the correct direction

From my personal experience with freezing rain, it matters A LOT at ground level but not at all in the trees. To get ice to accumulate on the ground it generally needs to be in the 20’s and the freezing rain needs to be light. Overpasses are a different story

EURO holds serve, still a bit on the eastern edge. Good snows through coastal plain

I was going to say… it’s like the only one that had the rapid snow transition down to Richmond. Everything else looks about right

Oh I was bobbing in the wake

Well, this escalated quickly

Man that’s a beautiful shift

Excellent analysis and posts! Thanks for all you contribute

Slowed down, further west, better downstream moisture. Everything we needed it to do