NorthHillsWx

It does appear to have a nice burst of convection over the center, and maybe slightly less of the popcorn look. Let’s see if can maintain and we see corresponding pressure falls and contraction of the wind field. I’m still surprised to see a pressure above 1005 mb, meaning this thing has a lot of work to do and not much time to do it

Just off the northeastern coast of Jamaica

Shewww, that’s a disorganized system per recon. High pressure, and all significant wind located far away in eastern semicircle. Was not really expecting that, in fact I was wondering if their wind sensors were malfunctioning. Not sure exactly what is inhibiting Elsa this morning but it may open into a trough after landfall in Cubs if it can’t get it’s act together before then. That’s a storm on life support, despite what looked like a better sat presentation

Recon didn’t find anything over 50 kts flight level winds on first pass but it was not in the northeastern quad. Definitely extremely weak in the western and southern part of the circulation. If this thing hits land in this state I’d expect it to open up rather quickly

I’m sure the folks in Barbados were caught a little off guard with how strong Elsa was when passing the island. Getting sustained hurricane force winds actually measured on land rarely happens even with some stronger land falling canes, not to mention several gusts over 85. No doubt a good blow down there

I know Elsa is struggling and likely to continue to do so while dealing with shear, forward speed, and land issues, but most models do show some impact for the Carolinas. At a minimum it looks like some good rains for the area, but some models like the Canadian actually reform the center east of Florida and bring a strengthening tropical system ashore in the Carolinas. Something to watch at least

As expected, recon is finding a much weaker storm and higher pressure

Faded while moving over me. Only picked up an additional 0.13” for a storm and July total of 1.31”

Is this the same storm we were watching yesterday? Similar appearance to Isaias last season east of Florida when it completely collapsed for a period. Models have really trended weaker too and maximized land interaction. Me thinks this storm will be a mid grade TS as most when it impacts Florida

Mid level shear/rapid forward progress is winning. All of the strides Elsa made earlier in the day at forming an inner core has been erased

Hurricane Elsa really reminds me of hurricane Nate whereas they were both in favorable environments but forward speed capped their development as they struggled to keep fully vertically stacked over time. Similar satellite presentations as well. I think Elsa should maintain current intensity up until the islands and I doubt she’ll strengthen much more given the rapid forward speed. Beyond that, land impacts and shear (GFS greatly increased the shear after the system interacts with Hispaniola) will clearly be the driving factors intensity wise. Pretty potent little mdr system for this early in the season and I’m truly impressed it strengthened into a bona fide hurricane in the eastern Caribbean

Storm total of 1.18” here. Looks to be done unless something develops in the subsidence. One interesting thing is many models predicted it’d rain through tonight and into tomorrow. This thing moved through in a hurry

The storm has impressive upper level outflow in basically all quadrants

Can already tell where today’s going: currently 77 with a sultry dew point of 75. Looks to be a dry, hot, and excessively humid end to June. Likely going to end the month at 6.21” which has done wonders to help alleviate the dry conditions following our rainless spring

Remnants of Danny looking remarkably well organized over Alabama this morning

Every now and then you get lucky Edit: Ended with an unexpected 0.18” today, up to 6.21” for June

With the cutoff low in the Ohio valley, we could enter into an extended wet period as well. Below average and wet, I’ll take it going into the peak of summer

Looking like we’ll have a named storm before landfall. Weak and limited impacts but always fun to watch tropical on radar

We have officially broken the 6” mark! 0.01” but still raining puts us at 6.00” on the month! Edit: Only very light rain today. Ended with 0.04” and 6.03” for the month

0.13” was the total yesterday. Now at 5.99” for the month.

Just had a heavy shower push through. 0.12” in about 5 min

Watch the low pressure system that has formed off the Carolina coastline. Very common spot for quick spin ups

.38” today. 5.86” on the month now

We’re at 0.09”. Hopefully we get in on it this evening