NorthHillsWx

None of us are truly out, regardless what we say

The mid-long range does not look boring on on the GFS

Well, at least we didn’t go from days and days of modeling showing a foot plus to a crusty 2-4”

I was up there all weekend and it was a good storm from what I saw. I guarantee you some places had 6+ just not reported. Deep winter all weekend, ground covered and in the teens Saturday morning with deep snowpack in shaded areas.

Had a deck covered with sleet and a glaze of ice this morning near rich square NC this morning was at freezing but rising when I left. Bout it, miserable weather day in Raleigh

It took all of 5 minutes to cover everything and now it looks like a legit snowstorm. Wind is pretty strong too. 32 degrees and SN+

Euro looks slightly improved to me just not the snow map. Better ridging, slightly more south, and the secondary gets going close enough that we may get in the party. Front end thump is diminished somewhat but if we could get the secondary involved further south I don’t think anyone would complain

Man, why did that Sunday threat have to pop up??? We almost made it to day of with no jinx

Up, slightly

I mean, as we get inside 24 hours that’s pretty solid. The trend has also been ticking up. This could be either a huge fail or a massive coup from the V16 as it’s been rock steady on this one

NWS will wait till the 00z suite before they cave. Having the euro/NAM on the low end is definitely disconcerting but even the euro has made great strides over the last 24 hours. Not an easy forecast

Finally...

Think a lot of people on here are going to like the 18z GFS... and v16...

0.74” in rain bucket. 48 and cloudy with mist at the moment. Temps edging closer to 50 but still a huge 24 hour forecast bust

These runs set some up for the very rare possibility in the southeast of snow on snow

Dew points in teens and temps in 20’s at start time... yea I’m gonna err on the side of cold with that look

Lights out indeed. And I believe with that CAD signal the freezing rain would be further south and east than indicated by the models. This has the look of a classic Carolina ice storm. Been a long time since we’ve had a Miller B plus established cold air in place

May just have to hop on over to the MA forum to see some reactions to this run

Now THAT is how you set the stage for an ice storm

That was not the nail in the coffin EURO run many were expecting. This thing officially has legs. Every model has trended better since yesterday or at least stayed the same in CMC and V16’s case. Trying hard not to get at least a little excited

Definitely trended in the right direction. Falling in line with other guidance. Dynamics will make or break this storm.

Don’t think we’re headed to the mid 60’s as the models had shown as recently as yesterday. Cloudy, misty 46 right now

If someone makes a thread after 00z runs it’ll be a day of obs thread. This is going down tomorrow, not 3 days out. That’s what’s shocking about some of the models trending in our favor inside 36 hours from go time. Euro will be telling. But seeing some short range guidance jump on board in addition to gfs and v16 and the Canadian remaining steady, there is a chance this thing pulls the comeback. I know the storm totals on those 10:1 models are way overblown but even a widespread 1-3” storm would be welcome by every member on here in their back yard

In any other storm I’d say this has legs. Trending correctly inside 36 hours. In this situation, it’s more of a WTH is happening feeling

Canadian has remained fairly consistent. Widespread light accumulation from triad east through triangle. Maybe slightly more in NE N.C.