NorthHillsWx

I guess the GFS decided to reward us for sacrificing the three systems before

Need to save this run for the archives. Agreed, might be the best I’ve ever seen

And that is a big dog

Almost always HP seems to be over modeled at this range. Still, even if it lowers 10mb that’s still a stout high. I doubt 1050+ actually happens. I bet this trends north. I’ll take the cold look though. That’s pure arctic ice air floating around Canada and spilling into the lower 48, geeze

Life comes at you fast

Can’t go much longer with the 8-10 day range threats staying that far out. We’re literally running out of winter unless we want to add sun angle and poor climatology to the list of factors working against us. Has the now or never feel this time

Average HP...

Feb 13-15 on the GFS looks like that one wild ensemble run from a couple days ago. Long duration overrunning event capped by the development of a NE GOM low and a 1055 banana high from the MW to the east coast. Sign me up! Only problem is the storm is more than a week away (insert laughs)

No cold air source for Sunday’s system. The issue exists in the mid and upper levels. That trough passing through the GL at that times keeps mid and upper level flow west to East, thus bottling up cold air from infiltrating. Storm track is good but it would need to slow down a lot for anything to happen frozen. Essentially, it would need to phase with that mid level energy or allow it to pass by for us to have any shot of cold air becoming involved. And that would need to be a situation of the storm producing its own cold air in the best case scenario. There is no high to force lower level cold into the area. I hate to say it but Sunday’s system is DOA even if it tracks perfect with the mid and upper levels so screwed up

27 for the low. Sitting at 30 with brilliant sunshine currently

Yep. Par for the course here. Pretty crazy to go from a high below freezing on Monday to a high in the 50’s. Hell the low on Monday may not even get below freezing. GFS is special

Also has a snowstorm for savannah ga and an ice storm to the Gulf of Mexico at the end of its run so does say cold is coming, but once again, delayed

Those on this board with expertise in pattern recognition have been honing in on this time period for weeks. To see it show up on modeling is pretty awesome. Hopefully we can score.

At least give me credit for the quote!

Storm still tries to blank @Grayman cannot imagine the mental breakdown if that map was correct

There is nothing to complain about with that system other than the fact it’s more than a week out

In my humble opinion, this isn’t a bad thing if we want snow. I know these super cold blasts usually mean suppression city. It’s not like the cold disappears from the guidance either, it just doesn’t bleed into our region to the extent it did in some previous runs. It doesn’t need to be 20 degrees to snow. It still shows a prolonged period of below normal temps and an extremely active southern jet. I think we are in as good a spot as we can get starting early next week going out through the following week at least,

Flurries flying around now

RDU recorded a couple hours of snow flurries overnight

Agreed. Already some showing on the ensembles. One of these models going going to suck everyone back onto this pages in next few days. Been fun seeing the mid-long range thread “hot” most of the day. This winter is already 100% better than last winter

HRRR swings some snow through central NC late tonight. Something to watch, especially with cold temps. Could be a surprise dusting

I’m just happy for the first time this year it looks like we will have a bonafide arctic airmass to work with. If last Thursday’s event had more cold air it could’ve been an area-wide warning level event. Was still a good storm. A few degrees makes all the difference as always

If that panned out I’d sell the next 2 winters and take 0” and 70’s every day and be totally content

Can’t get much better HP placement. Storm right where we want it at this stage lol. Those of you talking pattern recognition have been harping on this time period for awhile. Good to see models showing some love. I am as optimistic about the next two weeks as any winter period the last 3 years.

I wouldn’t worry about storm specifics at this point. In these parts let the cold come and worry about the storm later. Looks like our first real arctic push this season