NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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18z GFS for 12z Tuesday
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Most insane temp gradient I’ve seen in N.C. Mid 20’s at Kerr lake and 60’s wake county
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18z gfs keeps Tuesday in play. Watch the NAM when it gets in range. It’s close
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18z gfs is, uh, just a little south
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Heavy thunder claps in north hills at home. Downpour. Got my rain gauge working just in time for the flood
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Guilty
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GFS run has cancelled winter. Some might see some light ice over next couple days but we go into a spring pattern beyond that. Once what’s left of this artic air in the MW gets ejected it looks very spring like here later on.
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Coldest arctic air in YEARS in the lower 48, active southern jet, near constant systems/impulses, below average temps most of winter, and we rain.
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06z GFS considerably colder than 00z with the Tuesday system. Has HP slightly stronger and further south and maintains a wedge look through the system. Verbatim freezing line stays on va border instead of shooting north in other runs
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Pennsylvania
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If anyone fails to understand the frustration on the board, the current gfs has Memphis at -4 and Raleigh at 60 Tuesday morning
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This gfs run doesn’t get Raleigh below freezing through the next 7 days
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Yea, that HP has trended weaker from the mid 1040’s from a couple days ago. Also, the arctic air orientation continues to bury it due south into the southern plains, so any high to the north of us is working with table scraps to send our way. I’m sure the CAD is underdone but the setup is fading for us to stand a chance against these more amped solutions. I think the slp track on this run was more reasonable than the euro but, yea, we don’t have much to work with on the cold air front
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This GFS run is not going to be what we wanted. Everything’s evolving further west
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@ILMRoss awesome post! Thanks for the insight!
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GFS coming in warmer, more amped. Sigh
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I was just hoping for some interesting weather we don’t get frequently. People here hate on ice storms but I haven’t seen one in twenty years so it’s definitely a unique and rare event. Feels like it might be another 20 years at this rate...
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Fat lady has stepped on the stage and is warming up her vocals
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Forecasting in areas that aren’t sandwiched between mountains on one side and the ocean on the other must be nice...
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People love getting their power knocked out by storms and hurricanes yet don’t want it knocked out by an ice storm...
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It does for a Miller B coastal... but waits to do it till it’s off the NJ/NY coast
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If I had to make a forecast for this event that’s exactly what I would do for this: trust climo. Seems to fit well averaging all model solutions as well
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Slightly colder for CAD regions on the Tuesday system.
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Toss the CMC there too for major winter storms
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Per that run this is falling into mid-upper 20’s in central N.C. Some sleet may be in play but those are the temps you need to maximize accrual and have these maps come even close to verifying. Takeaway is winter storm options are on the table
