NorthHillsWx

Total costs of this storm are going to be absurd. It’s kind of that hurricane that had it all: catastrophic wind and surge at landfall, damaging winds in a major metropolitan area, and now widespread historic flooding in the most densely populated part of the country. Also, a fairly significant tornado outbreak from Virginia to the northeast

12/5/2 (about to be 3). Puts us at about the exact average for the entire season and it’s only first week in September

Finished with 0.28” of rainfall yesterday

Fits the term “catastrophic” for me. What’s crazy is surge looked to be very high and caused a large portion of the damage, but wind damage looks just as severe with many homes having their entire second stories shredded away and even apparent well-built homes having major damage as well. This was one of the most high-end wind impacts in history for the US. Just a historic storm all around

0.09” for the day, currently 82.2. High earlier was 86.7

4.16” MYD Highest Temp 99.4 Lowest Temp 60.3

Serious damage in Grand Isle:

Larry looks primed this morning. This will be a fun one to watch for a long time. NHC disco this morning really gives this the impression we will be watching a sprawling major hurricane for some time

GFS op has another cat 3/4 headed for Louisiana…

Here you go!

One thing I’ll say- though that’s a lot of damage in Grande Isle, that’s not nearly the surge damage I had expected for being in that location. Some houses clearly did get washed away, but not nearly what you’d expect from a 15 foot (predicted) surge. Good news on that front. Still the town looks like a complete mess and I’m sure every property has moderate to severe damage.

Original post likely targeted at New Orleans proper. Outside of New Orleans, a lot of towns are unrecognizable today. Good fortune was that the storm took about the best path to minimize the amount of population the destructive (and from what I’ve seen destructive undersells those winds) core passed over.

Agreed. No clue how that happened. It became unreadable last night. As for flooding threats, some areas in Mississippi and Alabama are under the fire hose this morning

I know impacts are still ongoing, but here are the highlights of this storm so far: 1) incredible model consistency on rapid strengthening prior to landfall, verified 2) the rate of strengthening in last 12 hours prior to landfall 3) durability of the circulation while technically inland (marsh). I know there’s a lot of water in SE LA but we’ve seen major hurricanes weaken faster in the ocean with actual heat content. I think the storm was able to generate so much energy and under pristine environmental conditions it allowed it to remain at its peak for hours after its first landfall and this was in no small part due to it rapidly strengthening immediately up to landfall. We’ve seen it with some other storms, but this was impressive 4) actually getting what appears to be a verifiable reading of a high end hurricane matching its estimated wind speed at landfall. Getting a reading of 149 mph sustained wind is absurd 5) numerous gusts over 100 kts inland. It seems with so many majors we have to search just to find a single reading or two over 100 kts. Even in a remote and swampy area, this storm dished out dozens, and some well inland Ida may not have been Katrina (fingers still crossed) from the death and destruction standpoint but this will go down as one of the greats. It certainly from a wind perspective will end up towards the top of the list and I’m sure as the day goes on some of the images of structural damage from the ground zero areas near the coast are going to be sickening. An incredible storm and a absolute textbook example of what can happen in the GOM with the correct conditions. A+ forecasts from the NHC and many on this board. This will be one we remember Edit: had to add 1 more: 6) watching an ERC with a high end major hurricane begin to occur from a freaking continental US radar! You kidding me?! That was wild yesterday watching the powerful inner eyewall pinballing around in the formative outer eyewall! Can’t ever remember that happening with such a powerful well formed storm (maybe Matthew) especially at the beginning of an erc

Still sitting at 4.16” for the month. No rain in last week +. Looking like we’ll snap our streak of 6”+ monthly rainfall totals imby

Idas radar and satellite presentation are just disgustingly pretty for a high end hurricane over an hour after landfall. No degradation yet. Still lots of lightning in the eyewall too

Mercifully it looks like Ida has leveled off. Unfortunately, it happened too late to keep this from being a catastrophic event where the storm comes ashore. Good news- the westward ticks this morning will keep the most dangerous impacts west of the city proper. I still expect gusts over 100 across the city, but the destructive core looks to just miss at this point

The deepening depicted on these models in the 12 hours before landfall is absolutely astonishing

I completely disagree. This storm has had little lead time. Also, due to covid, finding places to evacuate to or convincing people to leave will be that much more challenging than normal. TS force winds sill arrive by Sunday morning, giving the rest of today and tomorrow all they have to evacuate. This is going to be a powerful, scary storm and leaving this one to chance is not wise. Very happy to see the evacuations popping up today.

Ida is intensifying at an incredible rate going into landfall

Would not shock me to find a hurricane on this next pass. Ida has clearly continued to intensify and with the small core I would not be surprised to find hurricane force winds

As if we needed another level of concern, Ida has continued to lean towards the eastern side of the track envelope. Recon has confirmed this again with their center fixes. These slight eastward adjustments are increasing the risk of New Orleans getting the direct impact of the right front eyewall, and more importantly the mouth of the Mississippi. A strong southerly to southeasterly fetch (potentially from a cat 4+) hurricane would be devastating if the eyewall takes that track. Once again, I am not trying to engage in hyperbole, but this is a growing possibility with a storm of this magnitude and that is track trajectory. Hopefully it corrects westward under the ridge once in the gulf

Yes but that doesn’t always mean a vertically aligned (stacked) circulation and established core. It’s going over a “easy” spot of Cuba for storms to maintain intensity without much disruption and will not need to reorganize or form a core once in the Gulf in a highly divergent and light shear environment. Also, it’s track literally follows the loop current. This is going to be a monster hurricane, I am incredibly confident. As someone stated earlier, it’s rare on this forum or in any tropical weather discussion to have to look for reasons the storm will not strengthen rapidly. Models have been locked in unanimously for days and what we’re seeing this morning was the one thing I believed could slow it down: lack of an inner core before it could fully take advantage of its environment. Also- the outflow from the pacific system which was a possible detriment to intensification has been nullified by the more northern and eastern track. If this was going into Texas it would likely hand encountered some shear from that, or at least some outflow restriction, but it’s a non factor on the current track. I usually refrain from hyperbole on this site, but this has the hallmarks of another historic Gulf hurricane in the making.

This thing may be going through RI before Cuba… I’m siding with the higher intensity guidance on this storm given the structure at present. This is ahead of modeling

Now explicitly forecast to become a major before landfall: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.0N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH 24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND