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NorthHillsWx

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  1. NorthHillsWx
    This. Freezing rain maps are BY FAR the most unreliable maps produced by forecast models. Freezing rain is self limiting and highly dependent on both mid levels and BL temp. There is no algorithm that could possibly predict the variables that need to be accounted for in actual ice accrual that could be applied to every situation. CAD events are even more difficult because of the localized nature and remarkable number of variables that any location has for ice to accumulate. However, seeing these extreme totals on many different models suites and cutting them in half still gets us over 0.5” for many areas. IMO, this storm has a real threat to be one where some areas to see high end amounts we normally regurgitate as garbage from the models. Surface cold between 28-30, light precip for a large portion of the storm, and thermal profile that is not conducive for sleet make the Triad in an extremely high risk area for a high-end ice event. This storm, unlike the last one, has an incredibly high ceiling for ice impacts. I think anyone in the Triad should be prepared for extended outages and making preparations accordingly at this juncture. The trends across all modeling have not stopped and it is becoming clear that a significant ice storm is on the way. Do we cross into the generational category? That’s tbd but this has a real threat to do so
  2. NorthHillsWx
    1”+ totals, if realized, would destroy the energy grid. That’s enough to down wires without any trees being involved. Generational would be an understatement. Look what <0.50” just did
  3. NorthHillsWx
    This is shaping up to be a devastating ice event for someone in the Triad
  4. NorthHillsWx
    12k NAM very similar to the last run overall. No significant changes imo. Maybe a hair colder
  5. NorthHillsWx
    HR 42 and pretty much the border north is sleet. Some sleet even down into the northern triad. Definitely positive trends for those areas. Freezing line looks to line up about with the current watch package
  6. NorthHillsWx
    NAM dew points are much Lower Thursday 03z than the 12z run. Teens and low 20’s to the border. That’s going to lock in a wedge with wet bulbs
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Thanks. This SLP track is one we’ve seen many times produce the Carolina mixed bag of snow/sleet/zr. The warm 850’s in this setup create the fly in the ointment. They are anomalous for a slp track such as this
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Eric Webb (@webberweather) Tweeted: Last 4 days of 12z UKMET runs. Yea, this trend can stop now... #ncwx https://t.co/u1Kt7P0aNS
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Wasn’t he the one yesterday saying models and were trending away from an ice storm and the threat was diminishing?
  10. NorthHillsWx
    I would, personally, if the decision had to be made today.
  11. NorthHillsWx
    EURO was definitely cooler for almost all areas from 0z. One thing to note is timing of precip on Thursday means much will fall in daylight. EURO seems to notice that and nips the 32 line but brings it right back after 18z. Daylight and sun angle may help some of the marginal areas during this event
  12. NorthHillsWx
    Looking hard to avoid a damaging ice storm for the triad and SW Va at this juncture. Potentially a devastating ice storm for some areas. For points S and E it looks to be nuisance to moderate but as always it will be an extremely tight gradient between damaging and nothing.
  13. NorthHillsWx
    Friend in Columbus Ohio just had freezing rain and 17 degrees while just a day earlier they’d expected all snow. Thankfully it switched over to mostly sleet but it did rain well into the teens...
  14. NorthHillsWx
    CMC is a major ice storm. Maybe a degree or two cooler than previous run for CAD areas.
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Significantly colder than 00z for sure
  16. NorthHillsWx
    ICON keeps much of Triad in the 29-30 range for much of the event.
  17. NorthHillsWx
    If I was making a forecast for this based on WSW criteria at this juncture, I’d draw a line from Henderson to Hickory. North of that would be a WSW with a >50% confidence of verifying. Go one county south and east (watches just issued) and I would put your odds of verifying at 30-50%, decreasing from NW to SE. Next tier of counties (including Wake) just outside the current watch would be <30%. WSW gradient would likely be somewhere in the most recent watches posted (like Durham county). Thats how I see things and I think RAH has it right. GSP seems to be waiting to pull the trigger but I would expect watches with the afternoon package. To be frank, I’m surprised RAH issued watches this early in the game. They usually are more conservative
  18. NorthHillsWx
    +10 850’s would seem to be anomalous in this setup
  19. NorthHillsWx
    ICON is a HELLACIOUS ice storm. It actually has lighter precipitation for a long duration before bringing the firehose, IE efficient ice accumulation for extended period
  20. NorthHillsWx
    I don’t want to get too IMBY specific, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Wake got a warning just due to northern part of the county. Obviously most of the county would not verify, but based on what I’m seeing this event definitely looks to be more impactful further south and east than the last one. Raleigh proper I wouldn’t expect much in besides a light glaze, however. Could change but I had written the last one off already at this time. This one still piques my interest for mby
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Yep, this watch aligns well with modeling for this event. Think northern parts of Wake could be near the warning threshold though given current looks. RAH is staying on top of this one, unlike the last one where it felt they were more reactive once the precipitation started
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Man, 850’s are an absolute torch on both NAM and GFS. With the lack of an apps runner, what is causing this surge? I think combined with heavier rates that leads to higher BL temps on some modeling as it eats into the wedge from above.
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Goodness. That’s not what you want to see getting close to game time. Cut those totals in half and you have 2002...
  24. NorthHillsWx
    We missed (thankfully) on the rain last night. Probably the first Underperformer of the year in the rainfall department. Only 0.11” overnight
  25. NorthHillsWx
    From some of the pics and videos showing vehicles thrown I’d say this will likely end up as an EF-3 based on that alone. Some terrible pics and videos emerging this morning. Really confirming radar imagery from last night
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