NorthHillsWx

It’s funny because every storm is different but seasonal trends oftentimes win out.

This is just and observation and not any sort of discussion but I love how the Canadian breaks out cold smoke over the Carolina’s as the coastal is pulling away as the ULL with the NS energy is passing by. Would be a nice way to end the event though very unlikely

Wind underperformed big time here. Not sure we gusted over 40 and it hasn’t even been that breezy since

Juicy here

EURO is a Raleigh-northeast storm

I’ll take my 2-4” glacier and call it a season lol. Very bad trends west of triangle and in most of Virginia

I’ll take my 2-4” glacier and call it a season lol. Very bad trends west of triangle and in most of Virginia

Va Beach sweet spot

Say about it what you will, but the GFS has been rock steady for several runs

I’m not going to speak for everyone bc the storm has definitely trended a little weaker and this is an IMBY post but RDU has probably been the biggest benefactor of trends since yesterday. It’s gone from a plain rain/ice look to crippling ice storm to now better chance of a sleet/snow event. QPF has gone down but I can speak for everyone when I say we’ll take that as a trade off for colder mid levels. Now we don’t want this to trend strung out but imo thats not likely. It wants to strengthen on the coast. Starting to think the triad-southeastern VA and the top two counties of NC below the border will be the sweet spot. There will likely be a nasty cutoff south of there. Not buying the all snow idea in Raleigh unless drastic changes occur the next couple days, it will be a mixed bag

The GFS, though still the warmest at mid levels, continues to chisel away at the warm nose from below. You’re starting to see the ZR area collapse and more sleet. This was discussed the past few days as a trend with miller-As and we’re now seeing it on the model. What was once a thick warm nose across a lot of the piedmont is now looking like a relatively narrow transition zone (expected) with more sleet than ZR

Canadian all snow for northern 1/2 of NC but definitely less precip than 0z. GFS was less precip but once again colder. CMC will not be well received west of triangle…

I think everyone on here, me included, is guilty of IMBY posting and the RDU crowd can hijack a storm thread from time to time. As @strongwxnc just said knowing poster locations usually helps. If y’all wanna see a sh*t show hop over to the MA forum starting with the 0z runs from last night

There’s no doubt trends are not good in foothills and western VA. Also the extreme HECS solutions seem to be fading. But this looks nothing like a nothing burger for the eastern 2/3 of NC and VA. Need the better models to report in shortly

But it is significantly colder and winds up into a major storm for central and eastern areas. I get it, trends aren’t good for WNC. But that was the best run yet for a lot of folks here from that (crappy) model

ICON was not weaker and is a major storm for the eastern 2/3 on NC and SE Virginia. Also much colder

What could slow this down/cause a pivot

Terrible trends for WNC

Not sure I’ve seen a wedge scoured this quickly. We’ve jumped from a low of 42 this morning to nearly 65

Saw some high gusts in N Georgia overnight from the line of storms. Might be a precursor to todays wind event

The energy that becomes our system is moving ashore today

Disappointing 06z runs to wake up to after the 0z party last night but we’re in the 3-4 day timeframe now so changes are to be expected but trends need to be accounted for. Hopefully this sped up/strung out look isn’t the trend but literally last cycle everything was looking better so it may just be a blip

The faster trend is not what we want

Man the GFS is fast with the storm. It’s over before it really begins. Still big differences between it and other guidance

Warm nose is again chiseled away on the GFS. 925s are cooler too. Sleet for most of triangle