NorthHillsWx

Pretty epic outbreak for January. Selma damage doesn’t look above EF3 but that’s a bad hit and it doesn’t matter if your house is totaled, slabbed or walls still standing, it’s still totaled. Hopefully deaths and injuries are at a minimum

Today is definitely producing. Multiple PDS and tornado emergency warnings issued so far and some pretty scary video starting to show up online. These storms mean business

Well, the 6z Euro has it now too all the way back into central NC

That would be one of the funnier random events to see new Bern get 3-4 inches out of an unexpected isolated snow band while most of the MA heads into February snowless

NAM and GFS have actually made significant westward shifts over the last 24 hours with the LP Saturday. Euro and CMC aren’t far off either. Wouldn’t shock me for a surprise somewhere in eastern NC, especially near Hwy 17

If the NAM is correct there would actually be some heavier squalls with some isolated accumulation with that look. Too bad the trough is positively tilted and this runs out not up, that’s a banger low that gets going quickly along the frontal boundary

GFS and some of the hi-res models throw a little moisture back into eastern NC as the shortwave digs strengthening the LP offshore Saturday. This has trended with more lift/moisture in recent runs. Won’t be a big deal but with cold air rushing in there could be some snow showers over eastern NC Saturday

One interesting note about the pattern change around the 22nd- that’s the same day last year NC picked up a widespread snowstorm after a very bleak winter to that point.

GEFS definitely improved a little. Hopefully the Op starts to pick up on something before there’s no more room left to jump to at the bottom of the cliff

Shew discredit it if you want but good lord the 18z GFS is a dumpster fire actually getting worse towards the end of the month. I’m telling y’all the EPS looks great but I won’t believe it till Ops of any suite at least try to pick up on it.

Long story short, it’s a very good look

Midwest source of cold just doesn’t cut it east of the mountains especially with height anomalies remaining high in the SER area. I may have made it sound worse than it is but it’s not a good look and not what I’d call a definitive change to cold in the SE. That look could throw in some CAD events though so it’s not the current pattern. I guess everyone just wants a return to winter after this hellish start and that’s not a sure fire look and usually means cutters

EPS looks fantastic starting 1-22

I’m waiting for the EPS to come out but until we get within a week and something is still showing a pattern change I’m putting my money on anything that delays or denies it.

12z GEFS was in a word: BAD Reverts back to a western trough. Pacific reigns supreme through the run. Hopefully it remains on an island

We’ll just have to see who wins this one I guess!

GEFS gets a western ridge, but it’s situated too far west. That’s a cutter look late January

06z GFS punts the pattern change till February, if at all

28.8 with probably the heaviest frost of the year this morning. At least it looked wintry out

18z GFS op run might be the worst mid January run from end to end I have ever seen. Absolutely not even close to anything anywhere in SE. GEFS was slightly better towards the end of the month

Agree with this. I think the problem is all of us want to enter February with “money in the bank” (at least one event in the December-January period). Getting blanked through 2-3 of our best climo doesn’t sit well with anyone and relying on February for all of our winter weather threats doesn’t work out well. So far, any pattern change or threat remains more than 2 weeks down the road and the period until then is absolutely garbage with cutter after cutter and zero cold air anywhere near the east coast. That’s a fact.

This may be the post of the winter

Might be the first snowless winter I can remember

March will save us this winter

I got weenied for saying this period (11th-on) looked interesting a few days ago. Now we’ve got a whole page devoted to it. I’m calling this a win already!