NorthHillsWx

Dropped down right to the freezing mark last night. 32.0 on the nose. Heavy frost this morning too

Every year I always think about what a “good” winter means to me. Being from central NC and having spent my full life either here or the upstate of South Carolina, I know the difficulties in getting sustained cold or any winter weather. With that being said, to me a “good” winter features: 1 winter storm warning that actually verifies 2 WWA events At least two Arctic shots per month (3-4 days of really cold air in a row from December through February). Usually winters like these also have 4-5 events that we track for days that just don’t pan out once we get inside 72 hours, but they are fun to track regardless. The last few winters (going back to the December 2018 snow) have been lacking those nuisance events or even close calls. Last year had more model snow “chances” but very few had any shot outside maybe 24 hours of model runs. That’s really what separates this current stretch from years past is the lack of nuisance events or borderline tracking systems. Growing up it seemed every couple of weeks we had a WWA for snow or FRZ that would change to rain. We haven’t even had that. We haven’t had any big coastal storms where Raleigh was borderline and the triad got smoked. That seemed to happen at least once a year. I guess the moral of my story is I know we statistically see little snow or cold air, but even that being said, the complete lack or borderline or even minimal events for all of central NC, not just my yard, has been noticeable for several years. Here’s to hoping 2021-2 is the year that breaks that trend!

Yes! My first 1” of digital snowfall! Hopefully I break 100” again this year!

We were a little bit of a warm outlier for the area with a low of 31.5 but it was our first freeze of the year

Best fall colors in Raleigh in years

Picked up a measly 0.07” overnight. Currently a “humid” 64.8 out. Now 0.15” mtd

Even if you take out all the “junk” storms we still had above normal ACE. Numbers wise it was certainly above average though you could argue maybe 5-6 storms BARELY met naming convention or were named for such a short period of time it almost feels wrong counting them, but I regress. Throw in a bonafide cat 4 US landfall and another major strike in Mexico and at a minimum this was a significant hurricane season. The long trackers and a rare Canadian hurricane impact also gave the season a little more credit. Only thing that docks it a few notches in my opinion was the lack of a Caribbean season especially in October and a few long dry spells with no storms of significance to track. I’ll give it an above average grade of a B+. It would’ve cracked an “A” with just 1 October hurricane

Finished with 0.08” yesterday and only made it down to 34.7 this morning. There was some frost though so we have had our first frost. Made it to 52.4 this afternoon now down to 50. Looking like another cold damp day tomorrow

45.5 currently with 0.05” of rain so far. High this morning was 47.1. CAD at its finest for early November. Give me this same setup in a month so I can have 34 degrees and an even colder rain

I’ll give Wanda credit: pretty decent looking high latitude late season storm today

Another good rain event. Right at an inch here. Maybe a few more showers

Feels like a CAD environment this afternoon with cooler temps and east wind

Though I agree somewhat, I think a better solution would be to look at revising the wind speed category system. To me, cat 4 should comprise 130-150 mph, cat 5 should be 150-170 mph and there should be a cat 6, for storms such as Dorian and Irma. I think the difference in wind magnitude between a 160 mph hurricane and a 180 mph hurricane is enough to justify a separate category for only the strongest storms on earth.

Some of the videos from this system from New England are more impressive than either of the storms Josh chased in Mexico recently and much more so than the tropical systems that impacted the northeast earlier this year. Pretty high end nor’easter for sure! Seeing lots of gusts in the 90’s and widespread hurricane force winds recorded on land! I love these bombs. Funny thing is if this does acquire subtropical characteristics later on, it will likely be substantially weaker than when it was an unnamed bomb cyclone

I did not realize how dry it had been that way this month

Yesterday was the first borderline severe storm conditions I’ve witnessed imby in at least a year. We weren’t even under a warning but on radar a cell seemed to pop up over my house as part of the line and intensified with a lot of lightning. Probably resulted in localized severe conditions. Lots of leaves, branches down around my neighborhood this morning and part of it lost electricity last night for a few hours. Also some incredibly close lightning strikes. I’m sure I saw some gusts over 40 and there likely were some higher ones around given some of the tree and branch damage on the eastern part of my neighborhood to millbrook rd. Anyways, it was a great storm for the weather geeks in my area and best storm of the year for sure

I was wrong about the evening storms, they did hold together well through the Triangle. It was rocking and rolling here for a minute. Finished to 1.32” for the day

Picked up 0.30” from showers earlier. CAMs have really backed off on the line of storms predicted for this evening, but satisfied with the unexpected rain from earlier

Might not even be a hurricane at landfall lol. This is the second East Pac storm in a row that failed to strengthen despite aggressive forecasts

Picked up 0.21” from the frontal passage this afternoon. 3.53” for the month now. Temp has crashed to 65.1 from a high earlier today of 84.0

I know no one wants to hear this but this is a pretty substantial extended dry streak we’re in. I know some areas got a ton of rain last week but it all feel in a few hours. Outside of that, and for areas that missed the heaviest of that, it’s been exceptionally dry going back to the second half of September. Looking at models, many areas may not see appreciable rain going into the end of the month. I think we’ve had 4 days total with measurable rain going back almost 4 weeks, albeit 2 of those were significant amounts. The lack of consistency of rain has been noticeable. At my farm in Franklin county, all ponds are several feet down as of this morning

Last year never really had any Arctic air, just average temps. Models did give me a historic season, which materialized into one 1.2” overnight snow that was gone by 10 am the next day

Being from NC with property in Carteret county, it’s pretty dang hard to see Florence and “bust” in same sentence but I guess if we’re going off pure LF intensity than I’ll agree haha! Florence slowed down to a crawl which meant it’s intensity was not sustainable over shelf waters but it became one of the most damaging storms in history due to that slow speed. Also, it at least attained and maintained cat 4 multiple times. Pamela made it to 70 kts

I know no one is following this thread but this could be one of the worst landfalling intensity busts in recent memory. Forecasting a 120 mph hurricane and noting it could be higher and realizing a TS-minimal hurricane would be a nightmare for publicity if this was happening in the US inside 36 hours. I know intensity forecasts are tough, but yikes

While I’m sure this strengthens when it turns northeast this is one of the worst model/forecast intensity performances of the season. SHIPS had a very high chance of RI even 24 hours ago for the present time. Seems everything underestimated the north, NW shear. That being said, the system has a vigorous circulation and with shear vector improving and bath tub water beneath it this should still be a strengthing hurricane through LF though it will definitely be a half-a-cane and 85 kts seems like a reasonable ceiling, which is far less than what it seemed most of the week