First week of February alternating between 70 degree torches and snow and ice storms depending on which model and run you want to look at. Should be interesting at least
Sometime between Jan 26-Feb 2 will feature a widespread SE winter storm for parts of the forum. You heard it here first folks. #optimistic #turnthatfrownupsidedown
Surprisingly there seems to be some consensus growing from the 27th-on as being an active period with a much colder look. EPS and GEFS on the same page… The previous “pattern change” that failed to materialize never featured consensus between those two. This may be a good sign for the end of the month. We laugh at fantasy storms but the fact we’re getting them on op runs is a very good sign as well that there is some potential during that period.
EPS is now honking a SE death ridge for the end of January. Other than today, it has 850 temp anomalies above average for the SE every. Single. Day. Through the end of the run. If there’s a cancel winter button it may have just been pressed. Euro and EPS folded like a lawn chair for the 22-27th period pattern change and now look abysmal beyond that. Hate to say it but this feels like we’re going to get blanked in the pure winter months.
Moneys on PAC winning out and a continuation of the same pattern. Active cutters and brief cooldowns with no arctic connection. EPS has oversold cold all year I see no reason to expect it to change
If the pattern change doesn’t happen in the 22-27 timeframe than the GEFS wins bc the EPS has been honking that timeframe for days. Beyond that who knows at this point
Pretty epic outbreak for January. Selma damage doesn’t look above EF3 but that’s a bad hit and it doesn’t matter if your house is totaled, slabbed or walls still standing, it’s still totaled. Hopefully deaths and injuries are at a minimum
Today is definitely producing. Multiple PDS and tornado emergency warnings issued so far and some pretty scary video starting to show up online. These storms mean business
That would be one of the funnier random events to see new Bern get 3-4 inches out of an unexpected isolated snow band while most of the MA heads into February snowless