NorthHillsWx

Spent the weekend with the in-laws and they were convinced a hurricane was approaching NC. I think there is doom-casting (the tweet above) and then also just pure lack of knowledge among many people who do not follow the weather like we do. If they hear about a storm and hear the mention of their state, some people don't listen or just assume it's coming. With the rash of destructive storms the last few years, this may be a side effect. Every storm that forms, people ASSUME the worst now. A cat 1 slamming into Hispanola with plenty of dry and and shear before that is not means to get me overly concerned AT THIS POINT (for SE US impact). As with any tropical system, it needs to be heeded, but anyone predicting any sort of impact at this point is simply spewing. On Dorian- first of all, he is looking progressively better as of this morning. On Water Vapor, the dry air remains apparent, but it seems he has established a CDO and decent outflow, something with the bursts of convection we had not seen to this point. Given his small size, we know that RI is not out of the question. However, here is what I see: 1) small storm very susceptible to intensity swings 2) Good outflow but shear is certainly not too far to the N and W and very much in the forecast path (see above concerningsize) 3) Opportunity for a brief spinup quickly followed by weakening. Very real possibility we see this thing shoot up to a hurricane but weaken markedly before making it to the islands (if this thing gets sheared apart, it will likely drift west south of the islands in the easterlies and never reach there, as we've seen before) 4) IF and I mean IF this does ramp up to a hurricane, very good chance it is a shell of itself post-land interaction. Even if hit hit as a cat 3 (VERY unlikely) due to its small size, it would likely be a depression (Meaning LF intensity doesn't matter as much as if this was a large storm with broader circulation IE more resilient to a LF or interaction) upon entry to the Atlantic Side 5) We have seen time and time again post land interaction these type of storms struggle to get re-organized. Also, though the shear in that area is light at the moment, there is a TON of time for that forecast to change. Everything considered, this is a VERY challenging forecast due to small size, dry air, very sharp pockets of shear, degree of land interaction, and environment post-Hispanola. Certainly bears watching but I would not sound the alarm for any threat to the US east coast at this point. I think, as always, the flooding and impact to Hispanola and Puerto Rico (especially post-Maria) needs to be the main news story. Any storm of any intensity causes destruction to these areas and can cause loss of life. Much to come in the coming days.

Well the tropics certainly came alive in the last few days! Chantal, weakening depression, a home-grown TS looking likely off the SE coast, potential hurricane (99L) in MDR, and a successive wave train coming off the African coast. Get your popcorn ready.

I hear ya! I had been in the same boat for awhile until yesterday saw one storm blow up right over my house and sit, dropping an inch of much, much needed rain, 30-35 mph gusts, and close ctg lightning. Had a good storm a week ago but not as much rain. Can't wait for the, gasp, 70's tomorrow! Hope to see a blossoming radar shortly and maybe a cool, light, drizzly rain type of day tomorrow

I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through.

I'm surprised no one mentioned the severe weather from Monday. Drove through the Southwestern side of Raleigh (Centennial Campus Area) and there was a good amount of tree damage (Leaves, branches, and full trees blown down). Seemed like there were several storms of this magnitude around that afternoon so I'd expect similar damage. We had nearly 20k outages that afternoon too and many of our crews worked into the night to get power back on.

77 atm. Low cloud cover and it honestly doesn't feel nearly as miserable as last few mornings, oddly, even though DP is still up. That low feature really fell apart moving into NC yesterday. Very little rain in the Raleigh area though some showers worked in west of here, much less convection that NWS was advertising yesterday morning. Models never really brought much rain into here with that feature, so I was surprised they held onto the 50% + chances for so long yesterday. Funny after the active pattern Monday with much greater coverage and storm intensity and only a 20% rain chance!

I'm a little surprised the Low that went up the coast was not classified as of this morning. Seems to have, for a period, really gotten it's act together. This screams like one we will hear about in the post-season recap as at least a depression (looks like a storm to me). Thoughts?

Worked from home today and was treated to good mid-afternoon storm. Not much wind but pretty good structure, some heavy rain, and close lightning. 0.61" most of which fell rather abrubtly. Humid out this evening for sure

Saw that on the NAM for a few runs now. We've many instances of tropical lows developing right on the coast within a dying frontal boundary almost out of nowhere, though few get beyond depression (or to depression) status. Will be an interesting feature for the outer banks Sun-Mon. Ruined my offshore fishing plans already!

0.55" imby from the storm yesterday afternoon and overnight rain. Honestly was expecting more from radar return yesterday but I must have been fringed as we were never really able to keep up the heavy stuff other than a few brief "spurts." Still, anything over 1/2 an inch is a good rain in my book. Mowed my yard twice in last week and half (it had been more than a month since I'd needed to mow it before). Hot outside currently 88 with a lot of humidity. Storm chances have dwindled for the daylight hours today

Well, well, well, that walking into a wall of humidity feeling opening the door I had so hoped was gone for the year was back with a vengeance this morning in my neck of the woods! Maybe it seems worse as I had fully thought we were done with this type oppressive heat for the summer (why I get my hopes up in August in the south, I will never know). Oh well, looks like today is the peak of it. I think with strong moisture in low levels tomorrow and the front hanging around, cloud cover will certainly be impressive tomorrow and may be the saving grace for a repeat of today, though it will still be in the miserable range. Mid 80's in the forecast have been replaced with 90's through the period. In my experience with southeast weather during these summer patterns, sometimes it takes a tropical system to fully "break" the cycle and pull a front all the way through the area. Otherwise, looks like more of the same!

Most short-range modelling seems to have backed off on storm chances today from Triangle south. Still seems the storms that do fire will have the potential to be strong, especially with the extreme heat today. We will have to watch the 3-5:00 timeframe closely today to see where storms do fire on the southern outflow from the convection moving through VA and also where localized enhancement takes place. Me thinks a few good storms are possible, though widespread aerial coverage seems lackluster

Well, the "wet" period continued overnight. Received and additional 0.22" on top of the 0.16" from the storms earlier in the day for a daily total of 0.38." Really surprised storms were able to keep going overnight, with some strong ones in the Apex area. Seemed the convection earlier in the day had stabilized the atmosphere. Did not feel like it would rain again. I guess the earlier arrival of the first round allowed the full sunshine to generate enough instability that whatever feature that moved through was able to generate, maintain, and even strengthen convection across parts of central NC. Don't see that too often in these patterns overnight in this area. Some areas, my office in Garner included, seem to have really been dumped on overnight. Standing water everywhere

Finally got a gullywasher. 1.70" imby yesterday. .04 from the morning's showers and 1.66" from the 2 storms in the afternoon, followed by a long period of cool, light rain. Actually have puddles in the low spot in my backyard this morning

Picked up an additional .05" overnight. 1.02" for the day. Great start to August. Let's see if we can get an aerial rain, these summertime pop up patterns can be very unfair over short distances. My farm in Franklin county is DRYYYYY. Food plots are withering, really hope they get something to stay green going into hunting season

Just got home and checked the rain gauge. Just under 1.00." Great lightning display at the office today too

The "Old" GFS has it too, albeit closer to the coast. I work for Duke Energy and am part of the storm response team so, trust me, I hope everything recurves this year! It's been a whirlwind for us last few years between Matthew, Nate, Irma, Florence, and Michael! I do enjoy tracking these storms, especially Cape Verde ones. I hope it's a busy season but only with fish storms!

Here is the shear I was referring to. It has a narrow finger of somewhat favorable winds but is not consolidated enough to take advantage before it enters that large area of 30-40kt shear. Should it travel slightly further south, however, it may spend more time in that finger of lighter winds, affording the opportunity for some consolidation of convection

That strong wave that came off of Africa recently has been upgraded to 40% chance of development in 5 days. It has dry air in front of it and some hostile winds it will have to navigate but does have model support for development in the long range. The GFS, in particular, has been fairly consistent showing a moderately strong cane recurving off the SE coast in 10-11 days. I feel like this is one that may bide it's time until it gets into the vicinity of the lesser Antilles. Way far out but something to watch and probably signals the beginning of our cape verde tracking season

I'm in Charlotte (Huntersville) for work today and I just stepped outside and it felt, gasp, cool outside. Not sure the temp but definitely in the 60's. Almost jacket-worthy with the rain and NE breeze. RIP heatwave you have been CRUSHED!!!

I noticed that too, but if you look at the point forecast and read the discussion, it seems they expect a later arrival of the rainfall and are now advertising .75-1” overnight which, combined with the daily gives us a 1.5-2” estimate which is about what they were saying earlier and about what the models look like. It is funny how the point forecasts jump around though, especially for snowfall (usually downward)

I’m not sure I would call it a bust bc a fortuitous t-storm line sat over a sliver of the state. I can tell you those on all sides of that line suffered, I went to a wedding just south of it and it was 99 degrees. I am thankful that a decent portion of the most populated areas of the state got lucky though.

0.62” of beautiful glorious rain. Sitting at 79 with nearby anvils continuing to provide overcast. Been in the 70’s for 2 hours now in the middle of the afternoon on the hottest day of the year I’ll take it! Had to get lucky one of these days. Also brings me up over an inch for the month, lol

Just had a great summer thunderstorm. Still lightly raining with extremely close lighting. Going to check the rain guage after it ends but I’d say at least a half an inch. Literally getting more storms with 20% rain chances than that week of 50-70% chances. High of 92 so far but currently sitting at a rain cooled 81. When the sun comes back out help us with this added humidity!!!

Picked up a surprise .11" last night making 3 straight days with rain imby. Albeit small amounts but much needed. Walking out the door this morning was like walking into a wall. Really sucks the life out of you when it's like this. Can't wait for that trough to set up Early next week. Tuesday-Wednesday look awesome. Going to be a long 5 days to get there!