NorthHillsWx

I just want to mention that Earl is far from a lock to become a MH. It has a VERY short window to attain major status, will be doing so at an unusually high latitude to support a major, and will need several complex interactions in a quasi favorable environment for this to happen. I think the storm becomes a strong hurricane but I would expect guidance to tick down a few notches before earl gets into its intensifying phase, due to a complex upper level environment and marginal SSTs and shear conditions.

Picked up a much needed 0.12” this morning, our first rainfall this month. Has certainly dried out since our July soaking Edit: 0.17” for the day

Not sure there would be weather forums if all the bad weather stayed out in the Atlantic in summer or around the North Pole in winter…

Definitely a significant uptick in activity on GEFS and EPS. Only saving grace appears to be east coast trough breaks down the Atlantic ridge allowing most members to recurve. Some activity showing in western Caribbean especially on GEFS. First time in a while anything has shown there and the GFS op picked up on this with most recent run. The “dead” season is not dead, by any means, as we continue to move through peak climo. Most development may be fish food but from an ensemble perspective this is the most active look we have seen this season and there is agreement between different suites, something we were lacking last month. It would not surprise me if we were constantly tracking active systems from now through the end of the month

Danielle looks worlds better today. May have a shot at cat 2. I think it gets there.

I honestly cannot believe they named this. Looking at recon there’s barely a breath of wind around a very broad center. I’m going the opposite. I think this stays a middling cloud mass until it dissipates. First named swirl of the season.

This things either wide right or a band of showers heading through the Florida straights. Lotta digging going on to make this a threat

Lol even Danielle has entered the struggle bus. No major coming here. I thought this would be a decent little storm, but looks like a typical mid latitude minimal hurricane

Ensemble guidance is pretty meh long range after 91L. Nothing, to me, looks to be changing to flip the Atlantic towards a more active look. The same features today largely remain in place 10 days from now. Yes we can get a strong hurricane this year but I do not see it in the next 2 weeks.

And we have our first hurricane of the season It developed on September 2 at about the same latitude as Philadelphia, just like everyone predicted!

The “A” storm this year was a cherry/PTC for a very long time Seasons been a struggle for everything except Danielle

After watching this for days, I am inclined to side with the EURO/UK solutions showing a much weaker cyclone. Other guidance has repeatedly tried to develop this system too quickly and up to this point the EURO has handled its evolution the best

At the current rate with the increasingly impressive satellite image, it would not shock me if this system was a hurricane at the next advisory. I wonder what is the furthest north a system has undergone RI? From a TD to a hurricane at this latitude in under 24 hours would be incredibly impressive

Very pretty formative core. Could spin up quickly I just don’t think SSTs would allow it to reach MH intensity. Cat 2 certainly on the table with this one. Maybe we crack double digit ACE on the season by September 10, LOL

Danielle is working on establishing a CDO this afternoon. Definitely some light to moderate shear but it’s also helping to establish a divergent, venting flow aloft which really helps these mid latitude systems over slightly cooler set’s. Everything continues to progress nicely for a decent little fish hurricane

3.33” for August. Had a lot of rain events just very few that added up to much.

I am just going to say I was wrong. I went with something like 23/9/3 thinking a bunch of worthless swirls would get named. I forgot that there are in fact seasons that don’t even feature worthless swirls to name

Pretty good structure on this one. Cool evolution. Mid latitude cane formation always interests me

Lol. Looking at long range, the MDR looks to remain remarkably quiet. It would take a frantic second half of September and October to even approach normal season activity, we’ve fallen that far behind. Our first hurricane will come from a mid-latitude system in September. Doubt DT and many of the others hyping August thought we’d be saying that a month ago

It’s actually found itself in a pretty good spot (really an island) of moderately warm water and good upper level divergent flow. Looks to be on its way to being our first hurricane of the year.

@ldub23 Congrats on getting August correct. I know many people had some of your posts from late July/early August saved to deploy when August went sideways. It did not. You certainly have a history of downplaying very active seasons and looking the other way when you’re wrong, some call it trolling, but you were correct this month. Enjoy the limelight. Also, you may be a professional troll, I don’t know the intent and I don’t care about the spirit of your posts, but you do an excellent job of keeping this board active when the tropics are dead. So thanks for that

It’s definitely made for a photo finish to the month. Half the board wants it so one poster can be proven wrong, half the board wants to keep the shutout through the day. Get your popcorn ready

It would be an absolute travesty to get a mid latitude sheared spin up to sugarcoat the historic ineptitude of this season to this point, but that’s a TD. It had better convection this morning but you can see what’s under the hood, that’s a classifiable tropical system and has been all day I take it.

If anyone wants to watch a textbook ERC complete tune into the western pacific right now.

Looking at visible, our August shutout is going to end at 5pm from 93L. That’s a TD. Mid latitude fish storm to the rescue. Also one of my favorite TCG to watch unfold from old boundaries.