NorthHillsWx

19 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah temp is 88 DP is 77 heat index is 100 lol......I love NC but man I hate June-Aug outside of thunderstorms.....which I havent had a good one IMBY in ages......I suspect today will follow that pattern again but maybe I will get lucky. 

 

I hear ya! I had been in the same boat for awhile until yesterday saw one storm blow up right over my house and sit, dropping an inch of much, much needed rain, 30-35 mph gusts, and close ctg lightning.  Had a good storm a week ago but not as much rain. Can't wait for the, gasp, 70's tomorrow! Hope to see a blossoming radar shortly and maybe a cool, light, drizzly rain type of day tomorrow

1 hour ago, shaggy said:

12z 3k nam kills the squall line and shows very few storms. Not sure what's going on with this run.

I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through.

I'm surprised no one mentioned the severe weather from Monday. Drove through the Southwestern side of Raleigh (Centennial Campus Area) and there was a good amount of tree damage (Leaves, branches, and full trees blown down). Seemed like there were several storms of this magnitude around that afternoon so I'd expect similar damage. We had nearly 20k outages that afternoon too and many of our crews worked into the night to get power back on. 

77 atm. Low cloud cover and it honestly doesn't feel nearly as miserable as last few mornings, oddly, even though DP is still up. That low feature really fell apart moving into NC yesterday. Very little rain in the Raleigh area though some showers worked in west of here, much less convection that NWS was advertising yesterday morning. Models never really brought much rain into here with that feature, so I was surprised they held onto the 50% + chances for so long yesterday. Funny after the active pattern Monday with much greater coverage and storm intensity and only a 20% rain chance! 

I'm a little surprised the Low that went up the coast was not classified as of this morning. Seems to have, for a period, really gotten it's act together. This screams like one we will hear about in the post-season recap as at least a depression (looks like a storm to me). Thoughts?

Worked from home today and was treated to good mid-afternoon storm. Not much wind but pretty good structure, some heavy rain, and close lightning. 0.61" most of which fell rather abrubtly. Humid out this evening for sure

11 hours ago, downeastnc said:

the Hi Res models have a interesting little swirl off the NC coast this weekend....

Saw that on the NAM for a few runs now. We've many instances of tropical lows developing right on the coast within a dying frontal boundary almost out of nowhere, though few get beyond depression (or to depression) status. Will be an interesting feature for the outer banks Sun-Mon. Ruined my offshore fishing plans already!

0.55" imby from the storm yesterday afternoon and overnight rain. Honestly was expecting more from radar return yesterday but I must have been fringed as we were never really able to keep up the heavy stuff other than a few brief "spurts." Still, anything over 1/2 an inch is a good rain in my book. Mowed my yard twice in last week and half (it had been more than a month since I'd needed to mow it before). Hot outside currently 88 with a lot of humidity. Storm chances have dwindled for the daylight hours today

Well, well, well, that walking into a wall of humidity feeling opening the door I had so hoped was gone for the year was back with a vengeance this morning in my neck of the woods! Maybe it seems worse as I had fully thought we were done with this type oppressive heat for the summer (why I get my hopes up in August in the south, I will never know). Oh well, looks like today is the peak of it. I think with strong moisture in low levels tomorrow and the front hanging around, cloud cover will certainly be impressive tomorrow and may be the saving grace for a repeat of today, though it will still be in the miserable range. Mid 80's in the forecast have been replaced with 90's through the period. In my experience with southeast weather during these summer patterns, sometimes it takes a tropical system to fully "break" the cycle and pull a front all the way through the area. Otherwise, looks like more of the same!

23 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Hrrr is uninspiring.

Most short-range modelling seems to have backed off on storm chances today from Triangle south. Still seems the storms that do fire will have the potential to be strong, especially with the extreme heat today. We will have to watch the 3-5:00 timeframe closely today to see where storms do fire on the southern outflow from the convection moving through VA and also where localized enhancement takes place. Me thinks a few good storms are possible, though widespread aerial coverage seems lackluster

Well, the "wet" period continued overnight. Received and additional 0.22" on top of the 0.16" from the storms earlier in the day for a daily total of 0.38." Really surprised storms were able to keep going overnight, with some strong ones in the Apex area. Seemed the convection earlier in the day had stabilized the atmosphere. Did not feel like it would rain again. I guess the earlier arrival of the first round allowed the full sunshine to generate enough instability that whatever feature that moved through was able to generate, maintain, and even strengthen convection across parts of central NC. Don't see that too often in these patterns overnight in this area. Some areas, my office in Garner included, seem to have really been dumped on overnight. Standing water everywhere

Finally got a gullywasher. 1.70" imby yesterday. .04 from the morning's showers and 1.66" from the 2 storms in the afternoon, followed by a long period of cool, light rain. Actually have puddles in the low spot in my backyard this morning

Picked up an additional .05" overnight. 1.02" for the day. Great start to August. Let's see if we can get an aerial rain, these summertime pop up patterns can be very unfair over short distances. My farm in Franklin county is DRYYYYY. Food plots are withering, really hope they get something to stay green going into hunting season

Just got home and checked the rain gauge. Just under 1.00." Great lightning display at the office today too

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I'm hoping all storms turn away this year. My group was overwhelmed last year during/after the hurricanes. I want nothing to do with these storms again.

But the 12z GFS still shows the storm. It still recurves, but we all know that can change if the high to the east is closer or stronger. 

 

 

The "Old" GFS has it too, albeit closer to the coast. I work for Duke Energy and am part of the storm response team so, trust me, I hope everything recurves this year! It's been a whirlwind for us last few years between Matthew, Nate, Irma, Florence, and Michael! I do enjoy tracking these storms, especially Cape Verde ones. I hope it's a busy season but only with fish storms!

Here is the shear I was referring to. It has a narrow finger of somewhat favorable winds but is not consolidated enough to take advantage before it enters that large area of 30-40kt shear. Should it travel slightly further south, however, it may spend more time in that finger of lighter winds, affording the opportunity for some consolidation of convection

That strong wave that came off of Africa recently has been upgraded to 40% chance of development in 5 days. It has dry air in front of it and some hostile winds it will have to navigate but does have model support for development in the long range. The GFS, in particular, has been fairly consistent showing a moderately strong cane recurving off the SE coast in 10-11 days. I feel like this is one that may bide it's time until it gets into the vicinity of the lesser Antilles. Way far out but something to watch and probably signals the beginning of our cape verde tracking season

I'm in Charlotte (Huntersville) for work today and I just stepped outside and it felt, gasp, cool outside. Not sure the temp but definitely in the 60's. Almost jacket-worthy with the rain and NE breeze. RIP heatwave you have been CRUSHED!!!

38 minutes ago, Solak said:

0.05" yesterday.

Love watching the point forecast changes today.

After 8AM, After 2PM, after 11AM

3/4" - 1", 1" - 2", 3/4" - 1" .... all in the last 3 hours.

Meanwhile, parts of central NC are under a Flash Flood Watch. No amounts given...

Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain will develop and
  spread into the northern Coastal Plain, the northeast Piedmont,
  and the Triangle area this afternoon. The showers and storms
  will become more widespread during the late afternoon and
  evening hours. The combination of high rainfall rates and the
  potential for multiple rounds of storms will result in the
  potential for flash flooding.

I noticed that too, but if you look at the point forecast and read the discussion, it seems they expect a later arrival of the rainfall and are now advertising .75-1” overnight which, combined with the daily gives us a 1.5-2” estimate which is about what they were saying earlier and about what the models look like. It is funny how the point forecasts jump around though, especially for snowfall (usually downward)

13 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Major forecasted heat (air temp) bust in central NC today 

I’m not sure I would call it a bust bc a fortuitous t-storm line sat over a sliver of the state. I can tell you those on all sides of that line suffered, I went to a wedding just south of it and it was 99 degrees. I am thankful that a decent portion of the most populated areas of the state got lucky though. 

0.62” of beautiful glorious rain. Sitting at 79 with nearby anvils continuing to provide overcast. Been in the 70’s for 2 hours now in the middle of the afternoon on the hottest day of the year I’ll take it! Had to get lucky one of these days. Also brings me up over an inch for the month, lol

Just had a great summer thunderstorm. Still lightly raining with extremely close lighting. Going to check the rain guage after it ends but I’d say at least a half an inch. Literally getting more storms with 20% rain chances than that week of 50-70% chances. High of 92 so far but currently sitting at a rain cooled 81. When the sun comes back out help us with this added humidity!!!

Picked up a surprise .11" last night making 3 straight days with rain imby. Albeit small amounts but much needed. Walking out the door this morning was like walking into a wall. Really sucks the life out of you when it's like this. Can't wait for that trough to set up Early next week. Tuesday-Wednesday look awesome. Going to be a long 5 days to get there!

High of 96 today but got lucky with a T-storm that dropped it to 79 and has stayed in the lower 80’s since. Picked up another .20” from the storm, think areas around my neighborhood got more based on puddles. Good coverage today for only an aerial 30% chance. Hope this keeps up with some added moisture from Barry

Got lucky yesterday and got a heavy shower that produced a quick 0.28" which, amazingly, was my biggest total in over 4 weeks and came on a day with <30% rain chances (as compared to all the days with 40-70% that didn't pan out imby. Much needed and was pleasant afterwards as it occurred late enough to provide a nice "cool" evening!