NorthHillsWx

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Looks more amplified to me but LP further east than 06z?

Nope, way slower, much further west. Way more amped too. 06z had it well off of Virginia Beach 12z has it sitting off hatteras and wayyy closer and I’m not just talking about the red L 

NAM was a GREAT run for I-95 and was almost back to the Triangle! That’s a massive improvement across the board

EDIT: It snows to Raleigh/Henderson line

At this point, which models have had the least run to run volatility? That’s what I would pay attention to. I’m looking at you, RGEM/CMC and GFS/EURO to an extent. Blend those and I believe you have your answer here. NAM has been all over the place and I do not trust any other short range CAM inside of 12 hours

NAM getting back in the game!!!!

Before this begins, whatever way this breaks, just want to thank the Mets on here for posting and helping us amateurs interpret a challenging setup. This is one well look back on for sure as one of the more complex winter storms in terms of late development and lack of consistent model support all the way through to 0 hour. I love the conversation on this board and appreciate the insight from those posters who know much more about our atmosphere than I ever will. Now let’s reel this one in for someone! 

One thing I’ve noticed on a lot of the modeling is to slow down the frontal passage (100% believe this). What this allows for is the changeover to snow to occur for a longer duration for the Northern piedmont areas. It also looks like one of those shortwaves tries to inject a little energy at this time as well. We kinda looked past this first round yesterday, but it may really have the potential for areas west of 95 to be the main event. Some modeling is showing a 1-3 inch snow with this. The RAP and the GFS both have trended this way specifically. Something to watch but I can tell you if I got a 1-3” snow I don’t care what happens in the afternoon that would just be gravy 

13 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Was hoping the Euro would hold serve and not go the wrong way. Not a good sign.

It did hold serve

10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The local mets are really going to take a hit with the public saying the snow chances are increasing to we're not getting anything in less than 24 hours. Now if they have to change tune again today, oh boy. 

I know haha I saved some screenshots from WRAL over the last 24 hours. “Biggest storm in 3 years” “Increasing snowfall for the Triangle”

All I’ll say for my Triangle folks is if we reel this storm in, we’ve earned it. It is so hard to get a few inches of snow here and this storm is the embodiment of our frustration for the last 4 years

1 minute ago, Beach Snow said:

I feel like we would all be way more comfortable and confident if it was the opposite 

I like having the RGEM in our wheelhouse. It’s been very consistent with this storm 

GFS/ICON/CMC/RGEM all show a significant winter storm for central NC. EURO has it too but it’s a little further east. NAM/HRRR/ and a selection of CAMs have nothing. 

We’re inside 24 hours now and there is a suite of models thar gives me anywhere between 4-8 inches of snow and another suite that doesn’t have anything. No in between. At this stage I have no idea what to trust. This is that rare setup where you’re going to have to have to go against a significant amount of modeling either way you forecast this storm inside 24 hours. One of these scenarios will be right and one will be completely wrong and we still don’t know which to roll with inside 24 hours, amazing 

Pretty Euro run. The fact most of this board has jumped off the cliff due to the NAM (which went from a major storm to no storm in 2 runs) while the Euro has been relatively stable shows how much pain central NC folks have endured the last 4 years 

I think models will come back some overnight. 9 times out of 10 in the SE the NW precip shield is under modeled. It usually benefits our posters in SW VA so we (triangle) rarely see it. I like a 1-3” event across most of central NC falling into the mid 20’s. BRING IT! I think there is still some potential for more but this looks to be lessening. A 1-3” snow where everything sticks is a great storm

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This is a weird run. Brings back moisture at 57 largely due to a strong vort overhead. Would likely wring out all the moisture. This honestly isn't the worst solution. Especially compared to the NAM run. 

Yea- that would be pure powder too

8 minutes ago, WolfCraig said:

 

Looks like they bit on the “no storm” idea if Friday morning is the timeframe. That would be the precip from the front 

Probably be partly cloudy Friday afternoon now! 
 

We can’t even get a sleet storm in Raleigh! Only cold rain and ice

May have to delete this thread since there literally may not be a storm. Don’t want to remember this one. Good lord! I get this was/is a complex setup but to go from this morning’s runs to now inside 36 hours is insane!!!

NAM says “no storm for you, no storm for you either” blanks the whole area with literally no storm hahaha

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

What are you looking at?  I'm watching the NAM and it is getting cranked up with the precip shield by 9Z

It literally develops a lp from the front Friday morning then nothing afterwards. There is no storm. Just mood flakes in Raleigh and light accumulation east of there

Don’t look at the NAM of you wanted warm and fuzzy feelings to start 18z

1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

A “Moms Basement Met” He’s basically a 2yr old with computer access 

He’s got an enjoyable website and social media pages, I’ll give him that. I enjoy the rare Richmond perspective too 

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

The 18z NAM just gave mby 1-2" with the front. I'll take that and run...

I reserve the right to be suspicious about that frontal passage snow as shown haha 

18z NAM a little slower and beefier with QPF from the fropa 

2 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Eastern/southeastern NC.

New Bern may actually be in a great spot. I feel like you are sneaky good at catching snows that way. Been several “last second” snows there that showed up in this range