NorthHillsWx

Yea recon kinda aligns with what I posted about a little while ago. The dry air it sucked in earlier is entrained in the core. Storms are firing and not sustaining. Downdrafts are probably affecting the stability of any cohesive eyewall at the moment. Due to the overall improvement of the cyclones structure, I doubt dry air is still getting into the circulation, but it’s dealing with the effects from earlier. This will eventually mix out but until it does the storm will struggle. You can kinda see the popcorn storms within the CDO on satellite illustrating this. Recon timed it perfectly for when the most recent eyewall collapse occurred so it’s probably in a wind minimum at the moment.

Definitely improving structure but dry air is certainly entrained. Watch how unstable the eyewall is. Certainly seems like the storm has developed a solid core but until the dry air it sucked in earlier is fully mixed out I don’t see this strengthening too much. That can happen quick though- see Beryl

I freaking love watching these things strengthen inside radar range. We’ve gotten to see every stage of this one’s development on US radar. Excellent weather entertainment. This definitely looks like a hurricane now and one that’s wrapping up quickly

This looks like the “h” word on radar now

In my opinion this is organizing extremely quickly. Look at banding outside of the core. It’s setting itself up for rapid intensification. I’m actually impressed with how quickly this has come together since this time yesterday. Every time I look at satellite or radar it looks like a more mature system. I think cat 2 is attainable

It is honestly amazing how talented downtown Tampa is at avoiding tropical systems

1” exactly yesterday, 1.07” mtd

Recon should provide a well timed pass here in a bit

Yep it’s just continued to look more and more impressive since I posted too. This looks like a very clear attempt at an eyewall

It looks like a nascent eyewall is now forming. Once this develops a cohesive core it might be off to the races before landfall. Unlike that storm last year that peaked too early over the gulf, this looks like it will be strengthening into landfall. I really wouldn’t rule out this making a run at 85 kts

Nothing here. We got split.

SE NC and OBX really seem to be the places with the highest threat of hurricane conditions from this system. Guidance has really honed in on that area over the last 18 hours

Might have us a little tropical action next week in the Carolina’s. Starting to look like the Gulf threat has become a little more ominous for the Carolina coasts

ICON is a weenie run for a serious storm just pounding the SE NC coast for days

This thing has major 2005 Hurricane Ophelia vibes off the east coast

This ^^^

Happy hour GFS would nuke this board for days with the Gulf Stream stall then hesitant crawl towards NC

GFS with a hurricane landfall on both the gulf and Atlantic coasts of Florida

I wouldn’t discount the rotting front off NC for some short lived development over the next 48 hours.

2.56” today, all but about a half an inch fell in a 45 minute period. Significant flooding all over Raleigh when that band came through

It’s been down since late yesterday. It’s dumping. Edit: we have received 1.10” or rain in the last 20 minutes. This is one of the most extreme downpours I’ve seen. 9” in rear view mirror working on 10” for the month

Pushing 9” here mtd

It’s funny, we were much better at getting rain before they issued a flood watch! Just to 0.18” overnight with light rain falling this morning

Getting 7” of rain in a month is a good month. Getting over 7” of rain MORE than the previous month is absurd. Add my April + May + June totals and this month exceeds the sum. Incredible turnaround

I gave up too early 7” in rear view mirror, pushing 8” on the month. 0.67” and raining steady with more to come. Back to bed 0.84” was our total overnight