NorthHillsWx

That is a snow sounding all day. Hi-res models will sniff that out when they get in range. Key is seeing a N/W expansion of precip trending over time.

Bottom line after today's runs is that a coastal low appears to be our best chance now and coastal lows do have a tendency to trend NW. Modeling will bounce around for the next few days but the players have entered the field from all camps and we are finally able to track something inside 4 days. Not every run is going to be better than the last one but I'd say overall the trends today have been encouraging. Obviously the CMC, which had a beautiful run last night, wasn't as good but it still had the same idea. Starting to see agreement 4 days out which to me is as good as we could ask for in this timeframe.

I think you will be able to tell the state of the Thurs system entirely based on whether this thread turns "hot" after the 12Z model runs tomorrow

I would not say it was more suppressed. The LP location remained nearly identical, if not a tick further North, but the precip was not nearly as expansive. All things considered, still not a bad run imho.

Also, the 12Z CMC cut back the northern extent of the precip area somewhat but otherwise remained mostly unchanged from 00Z. Still same setup and general idea. Not really sure why it scaled the precip back as much as the vort max and formulative LP appeared to be a hair further north than the previous run.

Agreed if you're only talking about seeing snow fall. For accumulations, temps are always an issue. Take the 2.8 system for example. Many areas outside of North Georgia and Oconee and Pickens counties saw snow fall with no mixing, but very minimal accumulations. Mid and upper levels were excellent so it stayed snow but temps at the ground never fully cooled below the 32-34 range and really cut into accumulations. With a system like this where precip looks to be meager at best, wasting any precip waiting for temps to drop that extra degree will significantly cut into snow accumulations. I agree the atmosphere is not an issue but the fact is the baseline temps are going to rely on evaporative cooling and rates to reach a point where accumulations are possible. It's not going to start snowing at 32 degrees and temps fall from there. I'm not going to be the "ground temp" and "sun angle" guy, but those in the upstate and charlotte areas might have something to say about that from the last system as the only efficient accumulations occurred at night or early morning (I know that's also when precip peaked with that system, but it does matter). That being said, the focus continues to be on pushing more moisture further north and letting the temp battle play out from there. That has been the limiting factor with this setup and continues to be so. The trends have been positive today from that angle. I know the take the cold first then worry about moisture approach, but to the previous post's point, cold is not an issue for it to snow with this system. It only will become an issue if we get to the stage of talking accumulations.

WRAL is next-level conservative when it comes to forecasting snow. Usually the correct approach being they are based firmly behind the Raleigh snow shield

I'm not even going to entertain the theory of hope... I know I will get blanked this season. Damn you ICON and CMC, damn you!!!

26 at the house this morning. Thinking we'll bottom out around 24 which, sadly, will make this a tie for second coldest night of the season here

Overnight runs stuck a fork in this system. EURO has a heck of a coastal storm at the end of the run. Too bad the freezing line is in Canada...

I know there are years where RDU got blanked, but has there been an entire winter season where no measurable snow was recorded in the entire forecast area? Furthermore, has there even been a season where the Raleigh NWS didn't issue a single winter weather product throughout? We may be in rare territory here

The NAM crushed it on the last event. Euro saw it but the NAM locked it in. Every now and then a blind squirrel finds a nut

Only thing with HP's that strong is what we're seeing with such a weak system: suppression

That is a big, glorious HP. I forgot what they look like

START A THREAD! lol some short range models have an area of precip coming in from the NE, oddly, after midnight tonight

POTD!

Got down to 38 this morning. Picked up 0.76" yesterday for a "storm total" of 1.08" last 3 days. That band of showers brought some really heavy rain when it first moved in

After we get through the disappointment of next week's rain, I think we can all move to spring mode

A lot of moving pieces for the system next week. One thing to pay attention to this far out more so than fantasy maps and exact placement of precip as modeled is the mode of cold air transport. This cannot be emphasized enough that even the best runs the last 2 days, especially east of the mountains, are highly dependent on the ~1040 mb High able to efficiently push cold air in-time to meet with the precip. This cold-chasing rain approach very rarely works out especially when the cold is coming from the NW. A backdoor front with cold air established in the NE usually works better (CAD). THAT being said, this is one of the strongest highs we've seen modeled this season. If we can get a long-duration overunning event, those can work in this setup. An amped low can also work to pull and manufacture some of it's own cold air (But we all know the mid level implications of an amped SE storm with marginal cold to begin with). Verdict: this situation is borderline at best. The Euro appeared to be onto something with runs yesterday before going to suppression city today. But the storm is still there. It did not lose it. GFS obviously was more in line with the EURO runs, but is delayed with the cold air (likely not incorrect). This is probably our best "threat" this season, but it has much less going for it than it does going against it and that's just the truth.

Down by 12 TD's, 2 min left. 4th and 22 from your 1 yard line... Let 'er rip

I love the enthusiasm on the main board but chasing these D10 storms is the definition of insanity. Same thing happens and people expect different results. Hey- at least it's something pretty to look at! I am 100% convinced we are getting blanked. This winter's grade is a N/A. It never showed up. I walked out my door this morning at 6:30 to 68 degrees...

The Euro control run... Given the above, not in "scientific" terms though highly accurate, NOTHING outside of D3 deserves any credence showing any sustained cold or a fluke snowstorm until proven otherwise

When was the last strong CAD ice storm for the RDU area? I feel like they used to be way more common. Even minimal events with front end Freezing Rain seemed to occur more frequently. We haven't had ice issues (power outages) in some time, not that I'd want them, but it just seems there always used to be stronger CAD on the front end of most rain systems than now. I can't tell you the last time I saw freezing rain

Terrible pattern, absolutely nothing supporting sustained cold. But something catches a 12 hour window at D10+ and gets shown on 1-2 model runs before turning into a MW cutter. Sigh... Onto severe season for me. Only way to get snow here is what happened in GA/SC the other day, something pops up in D3 range

Can't complain about boring weather in your neck of the woods