NorthHillsWx

A couple weeks ago, making a factual assessment of what the Atlantic looks like today and going forward 10 days would probably have been considered banter. Season is on life support

I should’ve stuck with my original assessment

Guidance has, um, apparently forgotten it’s hurricane season. Takeaways: 1. EC trough will continue to offer protection from anything that forms from the east 2. No MDR season this year. Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Wave breaking continues and it seems guidance has picked up on the hostile conditions. 3. TUTT will continue to hinder development from eastern Caribbean through the middle of the basin 4. Some hints at a more active western Caribbean though few members are showing actual development. I’m really thinking our only threats this year will originate here. Ensemble guidance 3 or 4 days ago, especially EPS, really looked like the proverbial switch had flipped as most members developed 95L, the current lemon, and the following wave. No more. We’re back to the doldrums in peak season. I have officially declared MDR dead. Thinking our season shifts with climo to western Caribbean and GOM but will be slow for next 10 days. We’ve probably surpassed 2013 bc of Earl, but at this point it may be a stretch to get double digit NS numbers. Never count out late September and October in the aforementioned areas though. It only takes one. I just don’t see it yet on any of the guidance this morning

Everything this season is a struggle. We have a hurricane in an extremely favorable environment that seemed to fend off shear for days sitting with a pressure of 961 and a recon mission that failed to find surface winds much above 65 kts….

Winds will catch up to these pressure falls but it will take time. This is a very broad circulation. Perhaps ingesting that dry air led to the giant eye seen. Will take Earl longer than normal to increase wind speeds, I’m thinking the chance of a cat 4 is decreasing just purely based on the storm’s current structure

This should be a great pass to see current intensity. First impression: this is a huge hurricane. That’s a very broad area of near-hurricane force winds!

Was quite the run for this arctic hurricane

First true eye of the season popping now. All this talk about “fish storms” and people not caring about it unless it’s hitting a populated coastline and none of them can appreciate a monster storm forming in their backyard basin. Quite sad honestly for people who claim to be interested in severe weather. Oh, and we even have radar to watch this one Earl may not hit cat 4 (definitely has a chance but will need to tighten up a bit) but it’s about to be a beast of a hurricane. Love watching this sh*t in the Atlantic

It’s going to be tough to get a cat 4 to blossom out of a 50 mi diameter truck tire eye

Also- core of Earl just now sliding onto Bermuda radar. Here’s a link for anyone who wants to geek out watching a major on radar later today http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM SRI (CROPPED)&user=

Earl is starting to look formidable. Should be a beaut by this evening

0.30” today from the southern edge of a storm complex that blew up over my house. Wasn’t expecting anything looking at radar 20 min before so happy to get what we got. 0.47” for the month

Great surf in NC outer banks already

Amazingly, Danielle looks very potent this morning. The presentation of the system is as good as it has looked to date. At such a high latitude, it’s days are numbered, but this has been an impressive and anomalous system

Earl is steadily strengthening. This is a robust circulation to be holding its own and actually intensify in the face of extremely strong shear. I take back what I said, I am now fully expecting this to become a major. I did not expect the system to maintain or strengthen until the shear decreased given the look it had and now that it has its foundation it should be able to capitalize on the short window of favorable conditions. Earl and Danielle being extremely slow moving storms are racking up ACE for the basin. After Earl’s final act, we may not be much below average seasonal ACE to this point. Pretty remarkable feat for a slow season.

Imagine if this storm had sufficient warm water under it… Shed be a beaut

I just want to mention that Earl is far from a lock to become a MH. It has a VERY short window to attain major status, will be doing so at an unusually high latitude to support a major, and will need several complex interactions in a quasi favorable environment for this to happen. I think the storm becomes a strong hurricane but I would expect guidance to tick down a few notches before earl gets into its intensifying phase, due to a complex upper level environment and marginal SSTs and shear conditions.

Picked up a much needed 0.12” this morning, our first rainfall this month. Has certainly dried out since our July soaking Edit: 0.17” for the day

Not sure there would be weather forums if all the bad weather stayed out in the Atlantic in summer or around the North Pole in winter…

Definitely a significant uptick in activity on GEFS and EPS. Only saving grace appears to be east coast trough breaks down the Atlantic ridge allowing most members to recurve. Some activity showing in western Caribbean especially on GEFS. First time in a while anything has shown there and the GFS op picked up on this with most recent run. The “dead” season is not dead, by any means, as we continue to move through peak climo. Most development may be fish food but from an ensemble perspective this is the most active look we have seen this season and there is agreement between different suites, something we were lacking last month. It would not surprise me if we were constantly tracking active systems from now through the end of the month

Danielle looks worlds better today. May have a shot at cat 2. I think it gets there.

I honestly cannot believe they named this. Looking at recon there’s barely a breath of wind around a very broad center. I’m going the opposite. I think this stays a middling cloud mass until it dissipates. First named swirl of the season.

This things either wide right or a band of showers heading through the Florida straights. Lotta digging going on to make this a threat

Lol even Danielle has entered the struggle bus. No major coming here. I thought this would be a decent little storm, but looks like a typical mid latitude minimal hurricane

Ensemble guidance is pretty meh long range after 91L. Nothing, to me, looks to be changing to flip the Atlantic towards a more active look. The same features today largely remain in place 10 days from now. Yes we can get a strong hurricane this year but I do not see it in the next 2 weeks.