NorthHillsWx

Details at range = non important. Pattern, trends, fact it shows a storm = very important. Atmosphere is a river and models predict downstream currents and seeing anything show consistent on a model is gold to hone in on. As for the details (like clown maps, reason we call them clown maps), no model is even half decent until 5 days out. That’s just where we are with technology these days

34.7 now, crashing. Wish we had precip

Wow, temp had crashed recently. I drove home at 5:45 and (car thermometer) it was 41 when I pulled up. Now reading 36.4 on the weather station

Would not shock me to hit that tomorrow. Gut feeling ratios will bring us to the promised land

Fish: forecasting is hard, there are mixed signals, I have no confidence in any scenario. We could get 5 inches, we could get a flake. 1-3” is my call. Lol

As eyewall pointed out, it was much closer to phasing like some of the other models did. This was a good run in the correct direction

From my personal experience with freezing rain, it matters A LOT at ground level but not at all in the trees. To get ice to accumulate on the ground it generally needs to be in the 20’s and the freezing rain needs to be light. Overpasses are a different story

EURO holds serve, still a bit on the eastern edge. Good snows through coastal plain

I was going to say… it’s like the only one that had the rapid snow transition down to Richmond. Everything else looks about right

Oh I was bobbing in the wake

Well, this escalated quickly

Man that’s a beautiful shift

Excellent analysis and posts! Thanks for all you contribute

Slowed down, further west, better downstream moisture. Everything we needed it to do

Definitely another non-insignificant westward shift. Don’t look at the red L. Pressure falls MUCH closer to the coast

Holy moly the GFS drops a good storm BEFORE the storm, then goes boom!

One other note before I have to go back to work- these “clown maps” will likely verify with this storm being the high ratios we should have with pure arctic air. Usually you shave a good % off those maps due to warm ground/borderline temps/mixed precip, but in the all-snow areas we actually don’t have anything I see to negate accumulation. By the time this starts it will have been in the 20’s for hours and will be falling into temps in the lower-mid 20’s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some people shocked with how well this piles up under those conditions compared to a “normal” event here

Check, please

RGEM has been rock solid. If it scores the coup here I think I’ll have to reevaluate it vs the NAM. That’s a heck of a Carolina’s/SE Virginia snowstorm right there folks

Oh I’m in no way saying that. Yesterday there was the question of whether we’d get ANYTHING other than the fropa. Now it’s looking more likely to have a decent snow. I’ll be so happy with 2 inches of snow falling into 25 degrees I can’t even tell y’all

ICON came in just about the same. Held serve

The dam has burst and the NW trend has hit

None who jumped ship yesterday are allowed back onboard. Oh, crap

Well well well, we may be approaching a little model consensus at 0 hour???

Nope, way slower, much further west. Way more amped too. 06z had it well off of Virginia Beach 12z has it sitting off hatteras and wayyy closer and I’m not just talking about the red L