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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    Really a pretty impressive look on satellite atm. Don’t see any real change to environment between now and landfall, still will be limited by dry air. Don’t think anything inhibits gradual strengthening though. 70-80kts would be my guess with an 85 max and 65 minimum. Significant event for time of year and surge will be maximized by fetch, wind direction piling water up for days, and moon.
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Nicole Is getting its act together today. Bahamas radar shows an extremely pretty radar presentation. Gonna see if it can maintain convection through the minimum today unlike yesterday but hi res models are showing just that and have been by the time it reaches the Bahamas. It would not shock me to see cat 2 based on recon and radar trends if the storm can maintain deep convection
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Dry air and a stable environment are main inhibitors, per NHC. Dry air is extremely easy to see on water vapor
  4. NorthHillsWx
    https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/
  5. NorthHillsWx
    High of 82.1 imby yesterday
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Crazy too being one is forecast to reach cat 2 outside of the deep tropics in November
  7. NorthHillsWx
    It was a mad dash to 1” of rain for the month but dang if we didn’t make it by the skin of our teeth. Picked up 0.79” yesterday which brought our MTD total to 1.45”. Finished with 1.30” storm total
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Per Josh’s twitter, sounds like Roslyn delivered the goods
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Just 0.66” for the month. Don’t see us breaking 1”
  10. NorthHillsWx
    Beast. Wow
  11. NorthHillsWx
    34.3 for the low here this morning. Didn’t get to freezing either day. Light frost out, had to scrape the windshield for first time
  12. NorthHillsWx
    35.6 was the low this morning. Frost- mainly on the roof
  13. NorthHillsWx
    Very dry look going forward for the southeast.
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Pretty good rains this morning. Should break 0.50” EDIT: Finished with 0.52” which brings the MTD total to 0.61”. Obviously a much-needed rain. Currently a humid 66.0 out
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Honestly, not bad structure
  16. NorthHillsWx
    I’ve been fooled before without recon confirmation, but on visible, this looks like a TC.
  17. NorthHillsWx
    12 more hours and this thing would’ve been a major or dang close to it. Agreed with your discussion
  18. NorthHillsWx
    Last week I was in Yellowstone National park during hurricane Ian. I had very limited access to cell service, and obviously models and radar. I’d like to thank this board for an epic thread that needs to be saved. Since I got back, I’ve had time to go back and read discussion from Monday-Friday and it is absolutely a benchmark system both from strength, impact, and degree of forecasting difficulty. As always, excellent discussion on this board of another great American hurricane
  19. NorthHillsWx
    This season is very likely to finish BN for total named storms and ACE but it most certainly was backloaded. Where were we on August 31 and where are we now? That’s backloaded to me. We’ll see if October produces like it looks like it will. If October fails to produce, then there may be a debate as to how late September systems don’t really qualify as “backloaded” in a long season
  20. NorthHillsWx
    I was about to post that this looks better than the 20/30% odds NHC had for it, then noticed it got bumped back up to an orange at 8. If current convection persists into the afternoon this could be a cherry by tonight. I don’t expect additional development until it gets into the Caribbean but this one could, I suppose, spin up faster than models are showing given current appearance
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Sadly I don’t blame anyone but the people who choose to live in these hurricane prone areas and especially those who don’t evacuate. My family had property on the NC coast and we know the risks. TWC interviewed a couple who lost their house in a California Wildfire a few years ago. Their solution? Put everything into a house boat the left docked in fort myers… I mean I’m sorry they lost their boat (house) but at some point you just have to shake your head at the decisions some people make for their lives.
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Power came back sometime overnight. Still a lot of generators humming in the background so think we got a bit lucky.
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Was a rough descent and landing but not as bad as I was expecting. We don’t have power and there are a few big trees down across millbrook and in my neighborhood. Do not know rain total or wind gusts bc I forgot to put batteries in my station and with the power off…
  24. NorthHillsWx
    My house lost power per my in-laws staying there
  25. NorthHillsWx
    A ton of power outages piling up in the Carolina’s. My flight is still on time. I’ll give y’all my best hurricane hunter update when we do our center fix in a few hours over RDU haha
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