NorthHillsWx

Looking long term, we may only have one or two rain chances through the end of the month. Barring any possible tropical activity, what you have now may be very close to what you end with for the month in the rain department. What a weird September

If you want a strong landfall you want this to get pulled up ahead of the trough and moving briskly in a NE direction into landfall so it’s going with the shear vector. You also don’t want a system going into the big bend area of Florida where there is extensive shelf water. A Charley like track would yield your strongest LF, in the situation as modeled. If this gets left behind the trough, it will be encircled in dry stable air, moving slower over shelf waters, and subject to NW shear. That’s why the GFS is showing rapid weakening. It is FAR too early to discuss these specifics. The storm isn’t even formed yet and the trough interaction is long range. My gut says whatever forms will end up further east, maybe Euro type track, as that has been the trend this year for models to go too far west then correct east, especially with unusually low heights on the east coast. Let’s monitor cyclone formation before nitpicking intensity at long range. Happy tracking.

Fiona looking a bit ragged at the moment. Believe our strengthening trend has ended

I think most on the forum thought 98L was destined to be Gaston… even after Gaston had been named

Hot and dry.

Yep. This is what it was missing this morning. I think they jumped the gun but it’s clear it was on the way so it doesn’t really matter

Yea, that’s probably stronger than 35 kts

Gaston might make a run at hurricane status just based on its rapidly improving presentation. Wow, this season has flipped the switch

Don’t discount the charley track on this one though this system might be much larger in size. The upper level environment and trough features in the SE US that affected charley are very similar to what is modeled on the Euro for this one. Too much time to get those specifics but that’s a plausible track and one the models have been hinting at. UK keeping this too low imo. Maybe a few weeks ago but there’s too much troughiness on the EC for this system to stay so suppressed and not get tugged north especially a large cyclone as depicted

Another eastern gulf monster

Needless to say, this one might be a season headliner. The model support is clearly there and it blows up in a climo-favored region. Watch out.

From a lemon to a cherry at warp speed

SFMR winds are known to overestimate intensity in shallow water and those highest values were noted in some of the reefs approaching grand Turk. There have been multiple flights into the storm since it was designated a major and just now did they find FL winds to 100kts. I doubt surface winds are 100kts if they cannot find FL winds to that magnitude. Don’t know of another major where we had recon and it was kept a major without FL winds over 100kts. Just my $0.02

New TD in the middle of the Atlantic

Also- per recon I have yet to see anything that confirms this as a major hurricane either yesterday or today. They may have jumped the gun a bit on that classification using satellite estimates.

Did this pass directly over grand Turk? Seems like that was unexpected per track from yesterday. Definitely leaning left. Good for Bermuda, not great for Atlantic Canada

Pretty sure Gaston is about to pop up and head towards the Azores…

97L looks very close to becoming our next NS. Obviously no threat to land. Our well-advertised wave continues to have consensus support for development. Welcome to the party, 2022 Hurricane season

Significant eyewall lightning too

Ready for liftoff.

Per Twitter, sounds like Josh nailed this one.

Significant signal…

Sickening radar returns across PR. This is going to be a devastating flooding impact there. Several gust reports over 100 mph, definitely a feisty storm. Will be interesting seeing if Josh can get the eye in DR

Per recon this is just a tick below a hurricane. Slowly but surely organizing a core. Good convective burst over the center right now. Looks like some mid level dry air is the biggest hindrance at the moment as, based on cloud pattern, shear has decreased. Still not an ideal shear environment by any means but not enough to stop this from slowly strengthening

Regardless of Fiona’s strength/land interaction/current location and heading, models are now showing a much deeper trough approaching the EC. This raises the probability of a recurve significantly. GEFS has been more adamant about this being a deeper trough and looks like other model suites are falling in-line. I expect windshield wiping to continue but not to the extent we’ve seen. I don’t want to rule anything off the table but in this setup I believe it’s a matter of how far west Fiona gets before it recurves vs whether or not the system recurves. An alternate but very unlikely scenario is the system opens up into a wave when you combine land interaction with current structure and ends up plodding west with the trade winds. That is the only way this avoids the trough given modeling trends. I don’t see an organized system of any intensity missing that trough connection