NorthHillsWx

@GaWx since I have no idea where you get your data, how many times has RDU had two snowless winters in a row?

You can go ahead and say no measurable snow in 10 of 32 now

Fixed it for you No one expects wall to wall cold, that’s not the problem. It’s purely that we simply haven’t had many cold shots and have had well fewer than normal opportunities to track since December 2018. We just spent 2 months discussing a pattern change that led to this week which clearly wasn’t the cold outbreak we expected. With 70’s showing up next week and the next chance at wintry weather looking like February at the earliest, it’s pretty safe to say that 2/3 of our best wintry months will have been wasted. And before anyone tells me it can snow in march, I DO NOT CARE. Banking snow in march is like playing the lottery here. Heck, in our new climate, past Valentine’s Day seems almost impossible. If this was year 2 or 3 of the snow drought, yea I’d be gaslighting. But year 6 and this is feeling like less of a drought and more like the new norm. It sucks but that’s where we are at

We (anyone outside of mountains and south of Virginia) are cooked. Looking at burning 2 more weeks of prime climo with nothing showing besides historical analogs and LR pattern analysis. Seriously, there has been so much time spent over the last month analyzing what will turn out to be 4 below normal days with a warmup for next week.

My “less than a .10” of rain” forecast for today has already been passed. Every single rainfall since the start of November has over performed the forecast

3 days and only 2 days in the 30’s, allegedly. Interesting trend to watch for this evening in central NC is some models (led by GFS) have trended towards a later exit for rain today. Combined with an actual arctic surge, if these trends continue, there is a non-zero chance of frozen/freezing precip before the precip moves out. While best case scenario, amounts would be light, but with temps forecast to literally crash into the mid teens, even if it stays rain we will have black ice issues tonight and tomorrow morning. The later the precip moves out the greater the chance of road issues (even for triangle and points east)

Greetings from the snowless south. Happy yall are finally cashing in! I’ve been following your discussion through this period and, as others have said, there are some fantastic posters in the MA. Glad y’all have a decent storm and hope everyone enjoys it!

Mix of everything in rich square

70’s showing up on GFS to end the month. Maybe we will be watching trees bloom in February again

So you’re saying… Fabulous February will save us???

Hello darkness my old friend

Our “.25-.50” from NWS turned into 1.14” today

Literally gone… poof

Better luck next year, non mountain folks

Writing is on the wall. All these posts for a 3 day cold snap then back to the drawing board till it “reloads”. Really not sure it can still snow here

GFS has also warmed tremendously in LT. it screamed a multi week cold snap as recently as yesterday now looks like a 3 day cold period followed by a huge warmup. What a dumpster fire of a winter

Agreed. Todays 12z and tonight’s 0z had better show some movement away from what the GFS just showed or this one might be DOA. The trend is not your friend when those two models are against you 3 days out. Still time and today’s system plays a big part in the final solution. I have never jumped on this system tho. I still believe the following storm is the one to watch

People were a bit too quick to discredit the King ehhh?

I do, and I don’t think Tuesday is the Triads storm either. Maybe some token flakes or ice there? Sure.

I really feel like if it’s going to happen in central NC, it will not be from Tuesdays storm, but the system on the 20th. Tuesday is cold chasing moisture at best for most of the piedmont and that just doesn’t end well here. The 20th intrigues me. Cold will be entrenched and I do not think any models have a handle on that energy yet

This was probably the coldest GFS run since January 2018. Just keeps reinforcing cold shots the entire time after the 17th

Bad hurricane season incoming

Now do temps….

Yea I agree, I’ve just given up. Patterns and the term favorable don’t mean anything unless we get something and we’ve gone over over half a decade since the last big snow in my area and even that one was mostly washed away by rain that afternoon. We need something to start showing soon or we’ve officially punted till February

We have long range models now and have learned through pain and disappointment that in the south, if it’s showing rain at 384, it gonna rain. If there’s no snowstorm, dont expect a surprise. Models say punt till February so maybe February will save us