NorthHillsWx

Great video, I had actually just watched this before I saw your post. The only other similar pressure drop at landfall was with Michael, but still, Andrew reigns king in the modern era

We’re starting to hone in on the August 29-first week of September period for a MDR storm (Multiple models showing development of the same waves in this period and strong ensemble support). Will be a race to see if we can get a name by the end of the month, but suffice it to say, I expect September to start much differently than the way August has gone. Interestingly, the 00z GFS developed that disturbance coming off S America that the Icon has shown for a couple days, before the AEWs in question develop. There has periodically been some ensemble support for this system, though shear in the eastern Caribbean looks less favorable than other parts of the basin (But it avoids the suffocating SAL). Something to watch as it’s getting into closer range at least. Lastly, I haven’t given up on the GOM this weekend yet. There looks to be at least some form of an active west Caribbean gyre and models have periodically shown some development out of this feature. Very low chance at this point, but it’s something to watch on the models as we get through this week. On another note, the global dry spell for hurricanes/typhoons was ended this morning in the western pacific.

Picked up 0.08” this evening from a decaying shower

They also had that last gulf system as >70% haha

This will be the first one to set the table for future AEWs. GFS does a good job showing how the SAL circulating through the MDR is modified after each wave passage and the environment becomes better and better. The end of the GFS run shows a very moist environment after the passage of subsequent waves that should lead to MDR development coinciding with peak season.

GFS pushing back the development of the lead AEW even further and kinda splits the next wave. Not looking for specifics at that range but the trend with the first wave is definitely much, much more delayed development if any. The chances of going 0-0-0 in August are slowly creeping up unless something in the Caribbean, GOM, or mid latitudes pops up

0.06” last night/this morning, not sure when, but MTD 2.57”. Hoping for another couple rounds of rain this week especially at my farm where our fall food plots are getting ready to go in.

Not entirely accurate. We’re way below average on most counts. On average a hurricane forms in the Atlantic by August 11, which were 10 days past and adding to that. Also, yes there have been 3 storms, but none made it 2 days and one was a TS for like 6 hours. Our seasonal ACE is at a anemic, bottom % for this time of year, level. There have been 3 (3!) August’s in history without a named storm, and we are going to be flirting with rarified territory there. I think we’ll get a NS but we’re running out of wiggle room on that front, rapidly. Lastly, this was forecast to be a “hyperactive” year, so seasonal #’s are and will continue to be more scrutinized than say if the forecasts predicted an average season. 1999 is a popular analog, but by the end of this week that year we had 3 cat 4’s. That’s not happening this year. Maybe the script flips but we are starting WAY behind the 8-ball

Loving this below average stretch!

Raise your hand if a few weeks ago you thought we’d be sitting on August 21st looking past hour 220 on the 18z GFS run trying to find our “D” storm… It’s going to pick up but my oh my what a lackluster stretch

0.68” of rain today brings us to 2.51” for the month. High of 83 but spent the majority of the day in the 70’s. Very widespread rain today across NC

I’ll give myself kudos here: I never bit, especially after they flew that plane in there I did think it had a chance while it was still over the Yucatán but it clearly was sheared and disorganized after it entered BOC. Lesson for all: wait for recon/ascat before jumping to conclusions on convection

I know it’s going to change, but long term average ACE for today’s date is around 20. We’re sitting at 2.8….

Yep, MLC is further south and showing pretty clearly on radar. You can see the disorganization beyond that

I think we’re in for some big east coast impacts over the remainder of the season, though I would drastically cut season numbers based on when the season looks to get going. I think this season ends up with 14-16 NS, 7-8 hurricanes, and 3 majors. And I think at least 3 hurricanes will threaten the east coast with at least 1 actual landfall. Not hype, just looking at the basin, upper air pattern and consistent HP placement, and lack of significant shear especially with that large HP entrenched over the mid latitudes. As floydbyster points out, there are some great analog years for this season with loaded September and octobers. Dry, stable air can be overcome, and the wave train that is almost unanimously forecast to accelerate off the African coast in the coming weeks will fix that issue. This will still be a very significant season with major impact potential, and higher than normal impacts between cape hatteras through the east coast of Florida

I agree with the safety factor but we’re talking worst case scenario here a quick short lived 35-40kt storm. That’s not something the public needs to be aware of, despite gale warnings for sea and flash flood watches. If it had TS force winds I’d agree with the PTC designation. Why was the last system not designated a PTC while this was? That one was more organized and caused more rain than this will?

IMO- this should never have been designated a PTC. Recon clearly revealed an open wave yesterday, it had limited time over water, absolutely no model support even after being labeled an Invest, and a marginal shear environment to work with. I understand it was close to land but we can’t label every wave close to land a PTC. If it had TS force winds already (Like PTC 1) or some model support or some semblance of a developing circulation per recon, I wouldn’t question this. However lacking all of the above, the decision was questionable

0.09” overnight brings monthly total to 1.83”

Guarantee if that scenario happened the storm would slow down about 80-100 miles east of the Florida coast, teasing this board for days with model runs of a major into Miami-Jacksonville somewhere, then end up actually going across the NC outer banks… haha. I think our first US threat will be a gulf system. All models are forecasting an active west Caribbean gyre, even the Euro without explicitly developing it. This seems very likely as we get into the heart of hurricane season to produce at least a TS that would threaten the gulf coast and this idea has been getting plenty of ensemble love. In a La Niña year this is a very common mode for storm formation, and I think as we get further into the season we will see several threats originate from the west Caribbean moving N/NW into the gulf. As for the AEWs, that stable dry air must be overcome. Notice even the GFS is representing the feedback from this stable dry mid level layer by holding off real development until the waves are approaching the Bahamas. The HP setup over the Atlantic is extremely favorable for east coast threats. What does come off the African coast very likely will end up far enough west to be a problem. I believe, still, that the pool of dry air recirculating in the MDR will take a few waves to moisten up and allow development further east. However, the SAL west of roughly the West Indies (60 degrees) is significantly less of a factor and anything making it this far will have a real chance of development. Low Shear and water temps at peak season levels mean anything that survives the hostile MDR will develop. I think after around the 26th-27th we will have our first potential trouble in this area and at a minimum it will pose a threat to the southeast. Long story short, I expect our first US threat to be something that forms out of the west Caribbean gyre, followed by something in the SW Atlantic thar probably won’t get it’s act together until it crosses 60 west. Which wave that will be is unknown. Those two areas will be our focal points through the first part of September. I expect a true MDR system in the first 5-8 days of September.

Lol what? It got shredded this morning and is just an open wave… I’m honestly shocked they designed this as a PTC. Maybe I’m wrong and this blows up to a 35-40 kt micro TS right before landfall but this is not the look of something developing. It’s had nice convective flare ups for days and I did think that strong MLC meant it could take off after the peninsula but it got sheared this morning and now has <24 hrs to do anything and looks like it’s going through a convective minimum at the moment. Tiny system though, these are hard to forecast especially if you’re talking the difference between a 30 kt wave and a 40 kt TS. Name is the only difference at this point

Believe 99L has hit the shear factory. I thought it was further north than it was until the mid level center got exposed last night. Getting clobbered by shear this morning. Next.

You can see the shear affecting the cloud tops west of it. Imo it would need to be further north to offset that pocket of shear, which may be retrograding SW, but it’ll be close

I willed it to an Invest

I’m really not sure why the system over the Yucatán has not been designated as an Invest yet. Looks to me if it emerges off the coast in the same condition it’s currently in it would develop quickly. I don’t see a lot of shear in that part of the Gulf and it is in a favorable area for quick spinups. I saw they increased it to 30% of developing over the next couple days. I may even go higher than that. Unless it dies off overnight while over land

It does have “the look” of one that might develop. I’m honestly shocked models haven’t really picked up on it. Seems to be more organized than any modeling would indicate at this point.