NorthHillsWx

This was probably the coldest GFS run since January 2018. Just keeps reinforcing cold shots the entire time after the 17th

Bad hurricane season incoming

Now do temps….

Yea I agree, I’ve just given up. Patterns and the term favorable don’t mean anything unless we get something and we’ve gone over over half a decade since the last big snow in my area and even that one was mostly washed away by rain that afternoon. We need something to start showing soon or we’ve officially punted till February

We have long range models now and have learned through pain and disappointment that in the south, if it’s showing rain at 384, it gonna rain. If there’s no snowstorm, dont expect a surprise. Models say punt till February so maybe February will save us

It’s hard to need a sanitarium when everyone simply gave up a month ago

For what it’s worth the GFS/GEFS just want to keep reloading cold past mid month

It’s bc the evolution as modeled by all of those is not a mode for accumulating snow here. It’s NS energy playing catch up and wringing out limited moisture as the main low deepens too far away. We need more NS interaction but, as mentioned earlier with the orientation of this cold press, that would almost definitely mean rain. For areas outside mountains, NC is out of the game for this system

Yes! The two models you want in your corner against the GFS/EURO!

We can’t do anything right. I’ve given up. This is a good pattern and we just cannot time anything up right.

Cold gets here right as the fire hose shuts off

RDU with a 65 kt gust

EPS has been ticking in the right direction with that storm. I guess im just glad there’s at least cold air in the vicinity this time

Over 100 kt velocities on radar scope. Thats pretty indicative of a strong tornado EDIT: Confirmed large are dangerous tornado. PDS added to warning. I hope folks are taking this one seriously there

Pretty high end velocities showing up SE of Marianna. Debris ball even evident on radar, CC drop for a long time as well

That might be a strong tornado otg near Marianna

SER flexing that run!

It’s ok. We can still afford to burn 5 more storms in peak climo before I get worried! We’re the south, we rock at getting snowfall!

I think what’s burned us as much as not actually getting snow is the complete lack of anything interesting to track during this extended snow drought. I remember tracking last Decembers storm but it was lost a week out and yes, the cold and wind was interesting, but there wasn’t any snow in the picture for a very long lead up. I feel like growing up here there were many many storms we got nothing out of, but were glued to weather channel and wral because the R/S line was in the general area. We haven’t even had any close calls. January 2022’s storm was the only thing since 2018 where a WSW was even a possibility 3 days out. This forum has devolved into LR pattern analysis and pessimism. Now, we’re in a decent pattern but the pacific is yanking the carpet out time and time again. I just don’t know if it can snow here anymore, especially from a coastal storm. La Niña doesn’t work, El Niño doesn’t work, what does?

This is beginning to get that desperation feel to it. Cutter after cutter after cutter. There is no way every one of these storms is modeled perfectly but as depicted at 12z, I just don’t think we are capable of winning in the SE anymore. I’ve got no words.

Lots of CAD possibilities but we just cannot time any right with a HP for anything substantial per current modeling.

If I was in the mid Atlantic I’d be pressing the panic button hard as it relates to this weekends system. It has really become a progressive strung out mess. Pretty much everyone outside the mountains/foothills going to struggle with BL issues even up north unless the storm winds up as it looked like it would do past couple days. For us, the can has been kicked to late month

Lots of rain on GFS

I know everyone is fixated on the systems this week, but you have to love the long range look. The amped apps runner after the storm on the 7th really helps to set the stage for a real arctic outbreak and with snow cover north of us it really helps that cold air to make it south and east. Also, the niño effect on STJ is going strong through the period. I am extremely confident this forum will have multiple threats mid month and beyond and there are no signs that will be a short period either. So far, LR guidance has been extremely accurate with this pattern. From the flip we are experiencing now, to the brief warmup, then the real show begins. Save this post and bash me later, but I am becoming more and more bullish that the second half of January will bring us our shots.

In the 0Z ICON we trust