NorthHillsWx

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I was just about to make a funny post saying not to look at the 384 hour GFS if you didn't want to see another I40/85 N special but too late.

One odd thing though C.A.P.E posted a map of the same model run at the same 384 hour time stamp but it was from WeatherBell.  It had a much less of the good stuff south of 40/85.  Wonder what the difference is.

Not sure but the one on TT definitely factored in a lot of mixed precip as snow for the I-85 corridor south. The weatherbell one being more believable lol. Not going to lie, it just feels good seeing something, anything on the models even in LALA land smh

Well, here's a first for me. Pulled a tick off my dog. January 6th... If that's not telling towards the weather we've had this "winter", I don't know what is

The 17th-18th period looks interesting at least. Some cold air and southern energy playing around. At this stage, I'd say suppression is a good thing. With al the doom and gloom (me included) this is at least something to look at. 

1 hour ago, Solak said:

GFS has been all over the place with precip amounts for this coming weekend.

RDU has gone from 4.52" on yesterday's 06z to 0.24" this morning for the same time period.

Wouldn't mind the 0.24 to verify... My yard is soup from the past couple weeks and 1.5"+ from Friday/Saturday

Can't decide what is more comical today, a low near 70 on December 30th or Ohio State fans complaining about officiating after blowing a 16-0 lead...

LOW of 68 this morning. SHEESH

One word for the upcoming/current pattern: Bleak

When storms are showing in the beginning of January and the rain/snow line is 200 miles into Canada, our chances don't look great...

29 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

In all my years I have never heard of a coastal cutter

I consider it a fast-developing coastal storm with little/no blocking that is extremely transient. The type where the cold usually comes in to late or at the very end.

15 minutes ago, Solak said:

Storm on 1/3-4, Storm on 1/11-12. Cold sandwiched in between them.

If the piece of energy that gets left behind from the 1/3-4 system hooks up with any northern stream energy, the  on 1/5 system may have a chance at 1) heading further north than shown 2) pulling down the limited cold air more efficiently 3) spread some precip inland. However, with no blocking HP it would be a coastal cutter at best and a very transient system. We know we don't do well with transient systems without cold air already entrenched. At best this would be a rain system but for now, just another dry, average day...

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Still think the 5-10th period bares watching!

I know. It has a push of cold and a signal for at least a southern stream system of some sort but... it'd take perfect timing and low placement and even then with the cold coming not having a sustained artic source, it'd be (my favorite word for this area) marginal. Punting it, waiting till the week of the 13th!

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

That’s a lot of doom and gloom! How can you not like February snows!?? We’re due a Feb 73 redux!

It's OUR time! Bank on it. Fabulous February will save us!

The lack of any sustained cold in ANY model is much more concerning than lack of storms showing. No COLD = no CHANCE, even if a storm pops up. Just bleak right now. And it being north of 60 next few days aint helping my mood! I remember in the beginning December we were talking about "at least there's no torch showing." Well, no torch showing means it'll definitely torch. 67 in Elkins is INSANE. 60+ here, unfortunately, is becoming normal.... Hate to say it, but I'm about ready to stick a fork in this winter. February and March snows aren't all that good anyway. Sun angle really screws with them. Were in the prime climo and sun angle season right now and I BARELY see lows below freezing, lows!, for the next 10+ days... Buckle up, the sanitarium is going to be fun!

Guess we punt peak climo and hope for a bottom of the 9th, 2 strikes miracle! Never fails in the South!

Positivity from early December is turning into reality that (as usual) we punt December and the first week of January. No good source of cold air throughout this period means that even if a storm pops up, it'll rain. Welcome to the South

.40" in the rain bucket. Seems like the back edge has passed and that might be the storm total. Another good soaking rain.

57 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

!!!!!!!

hr144

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HOW is THAT look unable to produce snow in late December?!?!?!?!?!?! It doesn't get more classic for a major in these parts, albeit better HP placement (and stronger) but that is pretty close to textbook. I'd continue to watch this for sure.

The setup the week of the 20th is certainly intriguing. A lot of moving pieces but I do especially like the blocking showing up, as outlined above, and the NAO going from strongly positive to neutral (or perhaps negative). The southern storm track from the GFS isn't bad, just need cold air transport. I think there is potential.

18 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Appreciate your input. My concern is I'm in a rock and a hard place because I could qualify per say for both SE forum and Mid Atlantic with my geography. A lot of times more of the concern in this sub forum is for Raleigh/Charlotte and I-40 and south. Dewpoints up my way are single numbers to low teens signaling this could be more than a nuisance or minor as you cross the NC/VA border with potential for prolonged icing. 

I would agree with you there. Salem looks to be one area I'd flag as still having the potential for a significant event here. Just because it may be more localized and fewer posters on this forum will see much of anything, it does not mean some areas could receive a significant storm. 

For this late-week storm, I think we are seeing a general consensus forming in the models where there will be, at least during the onset, so freezing/frozen precip especially in the favored CAD areas (NW of 85). With the HP moving out to sea and limited blocking, there will not be sufficient cold air transport to sustain sub freezing temps for very long. This system, to me, looks entirely dependent on how low DP's get the evening before precip arrives and whether evap cooling can take place before the HP scoots out, losing the cold/dry source. These systems are extremely frequent here and can lead to WWA being issued. I do not see any reason to expect more than that as the colder Canadian seems to be an outlier at this time. Without a continued NE flow of cold air I do not see how sub 32 temps hang on long outside of the absolute most favored CAD regions. Even the Canadian switches wind to the NNW rather quickly.

Low of 42. 0.22" in the rain bucket. Very thick fog this morning on the drive to work. Also made it feel like it was midnight still for my morning coffee. Stayed dark way too late to get going on a Monday!

10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Great advice! Right now there's nothing to specifically focus on except (as you said) for the overall pattern configuration. We need to get one of these (10/12 day) fantasy storms to within 6/7 days, and then have support from other models before we truly bit on a potential storm.

It might be frustrating to see these storms pop up and then disappear, but it is a function of being in a cold/active pattern; whereas the models will spit out potential winter storms because the pattern does support the potential.   

Couldn't agree more. The pattern is not half bad and the fact we are going into Christmas week with at least a storm signal and cold (and no impending blowtorch) is exciting. How often does it snow here before Christmas on even the best winters? A lot of people already worrying at the very onset of the climo season for snow with a decent pattern upcoming. 

Cold morning, down to 27 last night. Ground was completely frozen and crunchy. Looks like a beautiful weekend is in store

Low of 30 this morning. Been a lot of sub freezing mornings this year for it being only December 5th. 

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro is very similar to yesterday's wintry 12z run at 500mb, but not as cold.  At hr186, sfc low in NE gulf and cold high over New England.  hr186-192 there is what looks to be frz rain from I-85 and NW in North Carolina

Something you just get used to saying...

Also, I guess no one stuck around this run beyond hour 270 haha.... I'll take snow then ice then 72 hours below freezing!  

Feels good to have winter weather threats show up, even in LR. Feel like we barely had even that last season!