NorthHillsWx

The threat for a fairly significant inland impact with this system is increasing in central North Carolina. The entry region of the jet streak combined with the track of the system is set up well to expand impacts on the western side of the storm. This may also lead to a period of intensification on approach to landfall. HWRF and ukie cannot be completely ignored. Tropical storm watch was just issued for wake county and this setup really reminds me in a lot of ways  of the Matthew setup but the storm track is inland this time. I would expect some areas in central N.C. see gusty winds up to 50 mph which, combined with 2-4 in of rain may be enough for power outages. At a minimum this will saturate the eastern half of the state which has missed out on most of the recent rain and could set the table for more impactful rain events as we move into the meat of an active hurricane season. Long story short, I am anticipating an enhanced impact in central NC than we would usually expect for a system of this intensity 

Our wet period advertised all week has fizzled to 20-40% chances on NWS as most of the energy impulses look to stay in Virginia. Funny how all these advertised big rain events have quite literally dried up and we get our most widespread rain event of the summer with a modest 30% rain chance the other day... A humid 81 at the moment praying for some clouds this afternoon otherwise we will be roasting in this humidity 

2 hours ago, SENC said:

Eyes wide open here on the Coast..  

Yep going to get the boat off the lift in Morehead. Don’t expect anything crazy though 

Wonderful:

It`s looking increasingly likely central NC will remain under the
stronger influence of subtropical ridging, which will keep the
majority of upper impulses north and west of the area. So what look
like a fairly wet and active a few days ago, is now looking more
like a typical summer day, with the Piedmont trough and strong
daytime heating providing the focus for isolated to scattered
convection.

Cannot rule an isolated severe storm, mainly near the VA border
where models show a band of enhanced shear of 25 kts.

One negative aspect of the lower rain chances, is that it will be
hotter, with afternoon highs back in the lower to mid 90s and heat
indices back in the 102 to 105 across the central Piedmont,
Sandhills and coastal plain counties. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

NAM doing NAM things this run, lol

High of 89 today and picked up a measly 0.01” though I’m not terribly upset after getting dumped on yesterday. Had storms literally collapse at my doorstep and reform on the belt line. So goes the best with the outflow pulse storms 

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

The vortex was devoid of convection for long enough time that 30kt winds likely were not mixing down below 960 hPa. So it wasn't really premature on their part. However, as these things sometimes can do, convection has reformed near maximum vorticity. Could they reclassify it? The system is still sheared, though it looks like the southerly mid-to-upper flow may have backed down some. It's about to pass the dateline and out of the NHC/CPHC/TAFB responsibility. JTWC may pick it up if the trend continues. It would also be renamed if it reintensified into a TS. This should turn NW and then N around an retreating ridge and head off into the northern Pacific, regardless.

Zombie storm 

Excuse the commentary haha but here’s the first part of yesterday’s storm from my house

1 hour ago, calculus1 said:

Really strange evening on the storm front:

Storm blew up right over my house around 8:30.  Radar returns showed bright yellows over me, and yet not a drop fell from the skies.  Then, as I was falling asleep around 10:30, I was rattled back awake by loud cracks of thunder, as another storm had developed over me.  This one dropped a little over a tenth of inch.  Finally, I was awakened around 1:00 AM, with very heavy rain, lightning, and thunder for another 0.68 inch of rain.

Typically, the storm activity diminishes as the evening wears on, but last night it seemed to do the exact opposite and get stronger as the hours passed.  Weird.

Very impressive convective day yesterday and it continued through the night as you mentioned. We had thunder from 3pm to when I woke up at 3am. Storms consistently were developing in what appeared to be rain cooled air and end up training. We got nearly 2” of rain but I believe places just to the north of my may have gotten double that. Also, some very strong storms two. We had the VERY rare (first time in my life) occurrence of multiple hail events in the same day. First storm hit about 3:30-4 and it produced up to some size hail then again around 6:00 another cell blew up and we got pea sized hail. All the while it never stopped raining and dropped into the seemingly stable 70’s

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Norfolk is simmering this month 

Very impressive heat for being so close to the water but I guess they maximize heat out of a southerly flow if no sea breeze is able to develop 

Whatever becomes of 92L, the weaker the system stays the further west it'll be able to go. Even if this maxes out as a weak TS, it may make its way into the Gulf before turning north. Canadian model shows this the best and would give central NC a widespread rain event. That seems to be the greatest potential impact from this system. Just too much shear and land in it's way not to mention the fact it still has not consolidated. I cannot see a path to a strong system at this point. It's also moving and forecast to remain moving extremely quick, which can make it tough to organize substantially given the initial organization, or lack there of

Picked up an additional 0.28” overnight for a 24-hr total of 1.90”

Big, Big storms this afternoon. May finally jackpot on rainfall. Been pouring for 2.5 hours. Also had pea-dime sized hail and some gusty winds I'd say were in the neighborhood of 50mph with the initial storm. Some great CTG lighting as well and it's been thundering since 3 pm. Great storm day, finally! Well over 1 inch, will check when the downpour ends but coming down hard still. 
 

EDIT storms have moved on but not before dumping 1.62” of much needed rain. Bout to go take a walk and check out the roaring creek down the hill 

Getting close to finishing July with under an inch of rain at the farm in Franklin County. 0.94." Beans are exceptionally dry. Western half of the farm, away from rain gauge, got a heavy storm over the weekend while eastern half was dry. Comparatively better at the house in Wake county but still a very dry month. Issue with relying on pop up showers all month with minimal forcing for rainfall. Maybe the next few days can help on that front

System has really faded on modelling, has more dry air to contend with that we thought earlier, and now looks to be shear-plagued until it gets to about the area of the Bahamas. Also may have limitations due to land impacts if something can even get going. The ceiling is much lower for this system than what it looked yesterday. Very similar setup that led to the demise of Gonzalo. Only thing I'll say though is these two back to back systems are priming the atmosphere somewhat. Next system coming off the coast seems to have a more moist environment ahead of it. In the MDR region, it seems it takes a wave train sometimes before a system can break through, especially early in the season. I believe these systems are doing just that.

Very impressive system for its location. I did not expect the storm to remain this intact through the cooler waters. Luckily it looks like the core will remain offshore sparing Hawaii from major impacts. Awesome to watch storms on radar though

It’s amazing how naturally protected Hawaii is from hurricanes despite being in the middle of the tropical pacific. 

0.24” at the house. High of “only” 92. Currently a very pleasant 76, where it’s been since about 3:00

40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

This looks like a 4 almost 5 right now

Absolutely. She's a beaut, Clark

Douglas has gone beast mode this morning. We’ve seen this story plenty of times before though with storms approaching from the East, they usually are well on their way to becoming devoid of convection by the time they reach the islands, no matter how strong they get before. I can’t argue against history and cold water, this will be a minimal TS by the time of its nearest approach to the islands 

I forgot what rain was here. We have dipped, ducked, and dodged every meaningful storm or shower over the last week. Watering just to keep yard on life support at this time with this heat and sun baking it

99L looks like it’s on it’s way to becoming a depression. Very much improved convection overnight 

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a powder keg setup. 

Things are gonna pick up in a hurry in a few weeks. 

Bathtub water in all the places where it’s most dangerous 

Looks like, in addition to being brutally hot, models have dried out significantly this week, decreasing our chances at any afternoon relief. Yesterday and today have been unbearably hot, the type of heat that you just can’t be outside in. 

Invest 99L has my attention. Decent mid level rotation and not ridiculous amounts of shear. If it can overcome some dry air, especially to its north, and a relatively stable atmosphere, it may be our first shot at a MDR storm as it heads generally towards the windward islands. Has held its own despite unfavorable conditions thus far