NorthHillsWx

A measly 0.02” last night brings us to 0.29” MTD. Looks extremely dry going forward. For areas that missed out on all the rain over the last month, get those sprinklers ready. GFS brings us <0.50” through the run and Euro and CMC are completely dry. Going into the last few days of June with under 1/2” mtd total is a possibility here

I feel like this summers going to turn me into the new Shetley. We’ve been on the outside looking in from every rain event and are probably running about a foot and a half below what folks in triad and upstate have this year

Measly 0.07” here. Got the split, 1”+ amounts north and south of us. 0.27” MTD

I don’t want to get into the CC debate but when you look at the east coast as a whole, the record sea temps, and some pattern anomalies that seem to have more influence over our ability to snow than in years past, there’s a reason the entire east coast is in rarified air when it comes to snow droughts extending multi-years. There’s a very strong argument that our fragile baseline state for snow (usually 32-33 degrees through the column even for some major events in the past) may be too warm now simply bc the water temps storms have to work with warm us above that fragile dance. There’s a reason that in the south at least there hasn’t been a coastal storm since 2017 outside some areas of the triad in 2018 that didn’t end up raining. The few snows we’ve had since then have all come from modes other coastals. Watch our 100, 50 year averages decline and you start to realize this is a very strong trend. Seeing your average snow decrease from 7 to 5” over 50 years may not sound like a lot but losing 30% of your seasonal total on average means a lot of snowless years will come given 1 storm can send you above that. I worry we may be shattering snow drought records by the end of this season. Now I know it can still snow and all this is thrown out the table for a while if we do luck into one so I’ll be right there tracking once November rolls around, but the long term trends and prospects for snow in the future are pretty bleak

Just picked up .20” of rain from a very heavy shower. Temp made it up to 92 before the rain. Extremely muggy 79 now with steam rising from everything. First rain since May 27

El Niño La Niña, doesn’t matter, there’s nothing we can get snow from anymore

Just saw the NWS monthly report and RDU never hit freezing the entire month, marking the first time since 1945 and only the 2nd time in history that the site failed to fall to 32 degrees for the month of March. Overall it was the 9th warmest March in history for RDU

Yep

Some hints of tropical development next week in the SW Atlantic near the Bahamas

Irma actually weakened to a 4 over the water before re-intensifying into a 5 before landfall in Cuba. As it moved over the Florida straights post-Cuba, it re-attained cat 4 status before making LF in the keys, but the core became disrupted due to dry air and modest NW wind shear. Watch a radar loop of the storm approaching the keys, it is evident when the core becomes disrupted. It was a half-a-cane from the keys to Naples LF. While the Cuban disruption certainly kept intensity down, it did have time to reorganize and reintensify to a 4 while on approach, but shear and drier air were more an issue as it approached the US as it did reform a beautiful symmetrical core after Cuba, briefly. If the storm had tracked further north towards Miami instead of brushing Cuba, it may have weakened from the same factors that weakened it dramatically from the keys to Naples. Or it may have missed those as it arrived before they did. My money is on Irma being a monster cat 5 if it had stayed north and hadn’t slowed down while hitting Cuba, but there were variables other than land at play that contributed to the weakening before US landfall

.46” yesterday and today

Definitely feel that way. Last week areas in Durham county (one county over) picked up 4-5” and we didn’t even get one quarter on an inch from the entire two day event

It is wild how much wetter western areas have been.

Picked up 0.12” last evening

Missed out on everything last few days. Just 0.08” from showers last night

First 1”+ rainfall since March Finished with 1.38” yesterday

Picked up a whopping 0.02” over last two days. Much cooler than forecast today, sitting at 82 (forecast had been 90)

0.04” overnight. Waiting on afternoon storms. Currently 75 with 82% humidity and mostly cloudy. Picked up an additional 0.23” with the evening storms for a 2-day total of 0.87”.

Picked up .60” of rain yesterday

We dodged ducked dipped dove and dodged our way to 0.00” today

First 90 for us. Currently 90.7 and extremely hot. Here it comes!

61% of NC is now in “Abnormally Dry” category of drought monitor, up from 40% last week. Does look like western areas of the state could pick up widespread rains over the next 5 days but central and eastern areas could remain dry. This obviously is not what we want heading into summer

Never cracked 90 for the month. Lowest temp was 33. Rainfall was paltry, just 1.36” and nearly an inch of that fell on the 4th

With no rain in the forecast through the end of the month, looks likely our current 1.36” mtd total will remain our paltry total for the month. This is quite the contrast to last year, when we finished with 10.94” for April!

40% of NC in the “abnormally dry” category in this weeks drought monitor, that’s up from 28% last week. With little to no rain in the forecast I expect drought conditions to redevelop in a lot of central/eastern NC. Thankfully this is somewhat localized and much of the region is in a surplus of rain this spring