NorthHillsWx

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Absolutely puking snow here. Temp 33

Is it sticking? 

I think today we can all press the “cancel winter” button. Long range looks warm, even torchy. That brings us into March. Glad we all got some winter weather this season. One day I’m sure RDU will have a big storm again. Maybe… 

And an all-snow event with snow falling in the lower 20’s. Honestly that hasn’t happened many times in my life here

17 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Nah, not really. 3 years below average. 

3 years below average but I have to say I did enjoy the snow this year. Cold before and after, finally got to shovel my driveway, and felt like a win after we thought we’d lost it the day before

HRRR has precip from the coastal back to the triangle. Just a hair too late for anything significant there but it’s a much more potent storm for just about everyone else and would certainly have a higher ceiling. On its island but definitely interesting to see nonetheless 

10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Really the only thing that intrigues me at this point are Monday morning commute implications.  Some models (GFS) shows potential for some stuff Sunday night and temperatures will dip below freezing.

That band of heavy snow showers it keeps trying to swing through after the main system has certainly piqued my interest. As you noted, it comes through in dark with temps well below freezing and right before the commute. The main system Sunday has certainly trended to a daylight event and I think central VA is the most likely candidate for a couple inches of snow but even there it will be low impact as it will be falling in daylight with temps at most near freezing if not a hair or two above

7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

I don’t want to be Debbie downer but I smell a bust on this one. After seeing the 6z gfs just kinda go poof with the qpf it kinda put the nail in the coffin for me 

Ensembles looked better than the Op and Euro actually improved. Hard to call a 1-2” advisory snow a bust if it doesn’t amount to that much haha

2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Ever since it’s “upgrade” it’s had a dry bias for sure. 

Other than the lowly ICON the NAM has been the absolute worst model this year 

4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

It’s pretty remarkable to see the 180 the NAM has taken from previous years. Use to be way overdone with qpf, now has to play catch-up and increase qpf up to go time with each storm.

I’ve been thinking this all season. It’s done that literally every storm this year. Usually way too amped at long range with every low but the opposite this year

While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” 
 

Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there 

Last 2 HRRR runs are trying to get a coastal cranking at the end 

ANDDDDD FROM WAY OUT IN LEFT FIELD HERE COMES THE NAAAAAMMMMM!!! Almost looks like it tried to get a coastal involved, kinda a hybrid system… oh poor NAM, you terrible model you

22 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Good Lord man, I wouldn't trade Carolina weather with ANYONE!  And I've lived here all 51 years of my life..

I’ll trade about 20 of my 90+ degree days for some 70’s with someone. Anyone? 

22 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Yea I gotta agree…. Im

NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above  75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao 

You live in the wrong region my friend… 

Not going to lie, how nice it is outside right now makes me ready to move onto spring. Might be the nicest day of the year so far with the full sunshine 

32 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

This is what I was alluding to. I’m so far on the nw fringe of the forum no one can really relate. Still a 2-5” type ordeal here but it’s still on an island with that. 

I’m not sold this is an event even your way. This is a very fragile setup for snow much less accumulating snow. RGEM depicts how these usually end up and it shows serious temperature issues. No one’s going to hop on board a system on this forum where only a few locations have any chance to see accumulation in NC and VA with a very low high end even if all things break correct. No disrespect to you fringe folks, this just isn’t a good event! 

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

That's round two. Don't feel like posting from my phone, but for the main event a sizeable improvement, bringing the energy south. One more shift and Raleigh would be in business. Looking decent up this way for a sloppy inch. 

One more shift and Raleigh would be in business for white rain. Look at your surface temp maps for that portion, everyone’s above freezing (even into Virginia) and rates look light. 

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

That image is showing snow in central NC at 1AM on Monday morning.  The timing is good and that could put down a quick dusting or so.

Honestly that portion of this “event” is most interesting. With the upper level trough and cold pool going directly overhead there would be convective elements and you could get some heavy snow showers. That’s not really shown on other guidance but to me thar has a higher chance of producing accumulating snow than anything with this 

Widespread flizzard incoming on the GFS! Seriously, this threat is dead unless some dramatic shift happens bc 1) snowing in the afternoon lightly with surface temps above freezing will not stick and 2) the upper level system though strong is strung out and lacking moisture meaning the ceiling is extremely low even if all available  factors in this setup were favorable. There’s no costal influence and waiting on a lee-side trough to develop enough forcing to squeeze whatever little moisture is available with downsloping and delayed cold to produce accumulating snow is like hoping your high school girlfriend will call you back. When the coastal left the chat a couple days ago this threat died. 

IMO, RGEM is a very realistic looking output. 

6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Overall axis/focus point of the precip is the same...difference is QPF.

Honestly, despite differences in surface map and precip depiction, the above statement has been mostly true for several days. SW to central VA has been the focal point for whatever QPF this upper level system will bring and it’s been that way across most modeling (NAM and it’s mood swings not included) 

Just imagine the pattern for the last month if we had any semblance of blocking…

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea that baby is pretty amped

Very similar look to Canadian 

RGEM looks like it was about to produce a big storm but it was also going to be pretty far north 

I think the big issue with guidance is the current pattern we’re in. With no blocking and short waves flying around like mosquitoes I think guidance struggles and what you’re seeing mostly in mid-range model outputs has to do with seemingly subtle differences in timing in short range. Progressive patterns are notoriously hard to model and that’s why I think this season has had wild swings until the last minute