NorthHillsWx

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Once again, while the models did have a signal for development, virtually every global not named the Para GFS failed to develop a truly coherent tropical cyclone in the days leading up to development.

The models continue to struggle across the board with regard to TC genesis. Something to really pay attention to as we move into the next two weeks where there are a lot of impulses in the flow. 

NHC earning their pay this season. Every one of their forecasts defied the models up until the very end for Nana. They’ve been incredible this season

Hurricane Nana

Yep, shear is going to win on this one. Levi’s discussion last night about the northerly shear imparted on the system by the ULL was spot on. Center has become exposed. 

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

11am update now has it maxing out at 70 mph.

In the discussion it says the system is expected to become a hurricane though the time interval this will happen is not shown 

Picked up right at 4.00” yesterday. Though humid, was nice today with low stratus cloud cover hanging on past noon. Currently 81 with a pretty sunset on the way 

Nice blowup of convection over the COC. Let’s see what happens with it. Still some E, NE shear present. Rapid motion isn’t helping either but system still looks well positioned for strengthening 

3 US hurricane landfalls (all strengthening on approach), one of the strongest storms to ever hit the US, and being on the “N” storm by September 1st sure doesn’t feel like a season bust!!!

The fact they found 60kt FL winds is amazing. Can’t think of a season where the global shave faired worse than this year 

Small core of this system + improving shear conditions until landfall could lead to a quick intensification. These smaller systems can give us some surprises! I like that NHC went above the guidance with the intensity forecast. After seeing what recon found (tight core, high FL wind) this seems like one with the potential to ramp up quickly. I think we’ll be looking at a strong C1 by landfall 

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

AF307 is almost in 99L. We'll know what we're dealing with soon enough. I still think winds on the north side will be strong enough to classify as a named storm if they find a closed vortex.

 

I’m anxiously watching to see what they find. This is a beautiful satellite appearance to not have a closed center. Has expanding outflow and persistent deep convection where you’d think the center should be

3.19” for the day and still coming down. Over 2.50” last 2 hours 

99L looks healthy tonight.

Could see 2 more named storms in the next 12-24 hours. 99L has some potential to make a run at becoming a hurricane. 90 will be a wave producer on the east coast. Both look robust at the moment for invests. Hopefully 99L continues its rapid pace of movement to decrease strengthening and also flooding issues where it makes landfall in Central America 

Hot towers going up over the center. First time this system has looked like a TD. Let’s see if it can continue the organizational trend. 

I think the potential for both of these systems to be much ado about nothing has increased markedly in last 24 hours

1) Laura- IF the system had organized and developed stacked vortices, it would have gone north of the islands. It did not and got whipped westward with the trade winds. It, still resembling garbage, has been named but it has guaranteed itself significant land interaction with possibly every major landmass in the Caribbean. This system had potential entirely based on it staying north of the islands and interacting with an upper level snticyclone with potential for optimal outflow and light shear an a few days in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas. Given that did not happen, this system is doa until *possibly* entering the gulf if it can keep somewhat of a circulation it can build off of once it leaves interaction with Cuba. 

2) TD 14- this system is a prime example that it takes prior organization to exploit favorable environmental conditions. If this had been an organized TC in its current location, it would be strengthening on approach to the Yucatán, possibly significantly. It, however, is using its time over water just to organize into TC. Unfortunately for the system, it’s time over water will be cut short so the bar for strengthening is lower. After LF in the Yucatán, it will once again depend on the storms structure for how quickly and how much strengthening can occur. Though I believe the models to be overdone on the amount of shear, there will still be considerable SW shear, continental dry air, and possible negative interaction with whatever remains of Laura. This system will not look like a classic cyclone on approach to the gulf coast and interaction with the trough and shear will probably make this a comma system. We’ve seen these Max out as low category hurricanes but that’s it. Simply put, the bar is not high for this one either. 
 

Im not ruling out the possibility one or both of these systems reach hurricane status (I think TD 14 has best chance) and a lot can change, but I do not think either storm has a high ceiling given the above factors. Laura’s Achilles heel being lack of organization at present and then land battles and TD 14’s being Yucatán and then a hostile gulf on approach to the US. I don’t see anyway either makes a run at a significant hurricane now and I think most guidance has performed fairly well with keeping these systems in check for a reason. 

59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sleeper, sleeper, sleeper. TD 13 gets all the love but this one could surprise too. NHC seems to think so. The environment early on at least is favorable for this one to develop. 

Still needs to do so, but what an atrocious performance by both the GFS and especially Euro on these two latest threats. 

Props to NHC for forecasting and not Just model watching. This system had very little model support when NHC gave it the cherry

CMC solution of multiple TC’s in GOM at same time is quite interesting. No reason to focus on model to model runs though. Signal is there for tropical cyclone genesis and very little to no chance of recurvature with that massive blocking ridge in place. As said above, could get interesting this week. 

Based on satellite and radar, I believe we have another storm off the east coast... Here in Nags Head for the week and you wouldn’t know it. Very little swell, few rain bands moving through.

Love people declaring the season a bust when we’ve already had over $5 billion in US damages alone, record breaking 10th named storm by August 13, more than a week ahead of 2005, and seen storms popping in even unfavorable conditions. Wait till the Atlantic gets right here in a couple weeks... 

Small low pressure formed just off the N.C. coast south of cape lookout this morning. If this had more time I’d bet we’d have a quick TS spinup again. Accompanied by 30-35 mph wind reports. 

16 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

So are the models just that bad this year?  The GFS now goes out to August 27 and the Euro/CMC go out to August 21, all showing absolutely nothing.  Do you think it blows before those dates or after?

They’ve been atrocious with storms this year. But, they do not get into the meat of the favorable period as advertised by the above posts even in their longest range. 

33 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Lost power at 3am got it back about a hr ago.....hear some chainsaws around the neighborhood and I smelled the pines and heard several trees come down, I think the forward speed kept this thing in check, 4-5 hrs of winds like we had at peak and there would be trees down all over and everyone without power, but it was maybe 2 hrs from the first gust to 40 to the last.....peak was maybe 55-65 mph, it got legit for about 30-45 mins, when the center was almost directly to my west 20 miles or so....and then it was over with winds tapering off to barely TS force again in gust....

I thought y'all would see hurricane force gusts the way this was intensifying coming ashore. Glad it wasn't as bad as it could have been!

Picked up 3.20" imby. No sign of any wind coming through and central NC gusts I've seen were less than impressive, highest I've seen was 47mph in Goldsboro. Higher Wind gusts from this storm seem to have been extremely spotty and mostly relegated to the coast. Some scary pictures of tornado damage coming in. Just saw the Bertie county tornado damage on WRAL 

Pouring rain. We’re around 1.25” so far. No wind yet. Going to bed, stay safe everyone 

Track has shifted ever so slightly East again. Also now explicitly forecasting a hurricane at landfall. The East shift may spare the immediate triangle area the worst of the damaging gusts. I think 50-60 mph would be high end with this track but likely 45-50 mph. Places further east say Goldsboro/Wilson could see gusts to 70. This could be a very disruptive system for central N.C.