NorthHillsWx

The trends (within 24 hrs of start time) have been very favorable for this system. I think start time is important, but it's also early February and the cold air is in place, so I don't think it's as detrimental as it would be a few weeks from now (still not ideal but I don't think that is the deal breaker). Moisture is the biggest concern (and seeing what boundary temps are at start time). Not much moisture to burn with this system so every flake counts, literally. I think accumulating snow outside of NE GA and the highlands of SC is less likely, but systems like this can spring surprises. Hi-res and short range models are certainly beefing up precip and this has even translated to the GFS, EUR), ICON, and CMC. All things are trending better for some potential advisory-level snows and that is pretty exciting this year. With this system, I'd look for the moisture then worry about the temps. Thermals are as good as you could want for snow in the deep south besides the boundary layer.

Someone should start a thread for this event and go ahead and curse it... JK pulling for you NE GA guys and the Upstate to squeak out something. I'd focus on the hi-res modeling with these type of systems and the most consistent model has been the NAM to the point that other models seem to be playing catch up. I lived the Cumming area for a year working with Sawnee EMC and I think that spot to Dahlonega, Franklin NC, and up towards Cesar's Head all look like a good spot to be. Boundary layer warmth is going to be hard to model in this but the upper levels are extremely favorable. I would expect at least some white rain in the upstate areas. If its in the 33-34 degree range then some slushy accumulations could occur there. Outside of the surprise snow a week ago, this is the best chance this season for several members of this sub forum. I think some 2-3 in amounts could happen in higher elevations in the areas I outlined. 

From rainfall and flooding, tornadoes, a widespread severe squall line, to a post-frontal wind event, I'd say this system has overperformed or at least met expectations for almost all areas of the sub forum. Anyone notice the 68 mph wind gust at Hatteras last hour? We just had what I assume to be the last of the rain from the system. Winds are gusty, but nothing compared to 6:30 this morning. Too bad it wasn't snow but this has been an exciting couple days on the weather front.

I know no one wants to believe it, but the 3K Nam, ICON and GFS show a decent snow event, not 5 days+ out, but tomorrow for NE Ga and the Upstate of SC (mostly mountains unless you truly believe the NAM). At worst, this looks interesting and some could get a nice little surprise. Seems the models juiced up the system on overnight runs.

3.85" of rain in the bucket. Winds gusting over 40 this morning I'd say. More impactful than a lot of tropical systems here. Many trees down, power outages, and some flooding. Quite the day. Still ongoing unless these winds slacked too...

Friend is reporting numerous trees down in his neighborhood off Falls of the Neuse near Ravenscroft. Fiance says power has come back on in our neighborhood but a lot of branches down and trashcans blown over. Sounds like quite the windstorm with the northern part of that bend as it pushed through

7 minutes ago, Solak said:

Forward progression seems to be temporarily halted at the Wake/JoCo line. Still dry here in Clayton.

Yep- training here in Garner. Absolutely dumping

Lost connection to my home camera in North Hills. Assuming power's out. In Garner we missed most of the wind but it's pouring.

Can you imagine if it was only 40 degree cooler and we had this moisture????  

36 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

12z GFS actually has decent HP's coming down for a change.

Until next run

Just now, downeastnc said:

Yeah easily the worst I can remember for the Charlotte metro area in a long while....if it don't calm down soon it will end up being a big day for the entire state.....we are getting a few breaks in the clouds down here in the east.

Today has produced more tornadoes based on OTG calls by the NWS and now some ground confirmation reports coming out than some of our more well-advertised spring systems of late. And it's only a little past noon.

10 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

That’s what I was thinking. It may be the worst severe weather day for Charlotte since one of those mid 80s outbreaks. I am talking about Charlotte specifically. I could care less about outbreaks anywhere else in the state in this instance. 

Saw some snapchats from co-workers in uptown when the second line came through. Wow is all I can say. 

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1122 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Cabarrus County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...
  Central Mecklenburg County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...
  Southeastern Gaston County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...

* Until noon EST.

* At 1121 AM EST, a confirmed dangerous tornado was located 7 miles
  east of Gastonia, or over Belmont, moving east at 45 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, Hidden Valley, The Plaza and
  Northwest Charlotte around 1140 AM EST.
  Harrisburg, University City, Reedy Creek Park, Charlotte Motor
  Speedway and East Charlotte around 1150 AM EST.
  Downtown Concord, West Concord, Mt Pleasant and Midland around
  1200 PM EST.

Don't see a PDS issued frequently for cities as large as Charlotte. Stay safe

Quickly turning dangerous in the western Carolinas. Storms seems to be efficiently producing tornadic spinups.

Same cell that hit Spartanburg

Tornado Warning
NCC025-071-119-061645-
/O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0013.200206T1604Z-200206T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1104 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Western Cabarrus County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...
  Central Mecklenburg County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...
  Southeastern Gaston County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...

* Until 1145 AM EST.

* At 1104 AM EST, a tornado producing storm was located 4 miles
  southwest of Gastonia, or near South Gastonia, moving east at 60
  mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Ranlo, Lowell and Dallas around 1110 AM EST.
  Southwest Charlotte, Paw Creek, Belmont, Lake Wylie and Charlotte
  Douglas Airport around 1120 AM EST.
  Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte, Hidden
  Valley and The Plaza around 1130 AM EST.
  Downtown Concord, Harrisburg, Charlotte Motor Speedway, West
  Concord and University City around 1140 AM EST.

Other locations impacted by this dangerous thunderstorm include
Crowders and Croft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 8123 3528 8126 3550 8061 3522 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 253DEG 50KT 3521 8124

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$
MANNING

Rumbles of thunder in Raleigh right now. 1.16" and about to rain some more

Any confirmation on the Spartanburg cell? Looked very defined and had an apparent TDS as it went right over the city. 

I have a feeling those 2-5 in totals are a lock to verify in the Triangle. It's 7:20 and we are pushing 0.75" and it is pouring atm and looks to for the next several hours before the main line gets here this evening.

Raining at work in Garner. A little bit before the NWS chance of rain "mainly after 1:00" forecast...

2 minutes ago, Solak said:

And just like a snow map, the 12z GFS has cut the rain totals by two thirds (at least for the RAH area). 3.5" is now 1.25"

Definitely looking like the heaviest rain will be west of here. Western Piedmont/Mountains will be a solid flood event

Was a "brisk" 58 when I left the house this morning. Currently sitting at 68, down a hair from 69 earlier. I'll take this weather... In May

14 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Just punt the whole damn winter like I did back in early January and people called me crazy. It'll save you a lot of headache. It's over!

I remember when some were posting snow maps for the 7th, now we're posting rain maps with rain totals looking like they should be snowfall totals instead

12 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I hear you. Part of my criteria for a good winter storm is how it affects the roads (or power lines). Years back we had a <1" (mid-day) event that stuck right to the roads and caused havoc. I consider that a great event. Other times we received >3" but it never stuck to the roads (forgettable).  

Oh I remember. The unexpected clipper where it was in the 20's, snow stuck instantly to everything, all schools and businesses let out, and the city was gridlocked. That was a major storm, regardless of accumulation. It was crazy to see Greg Fischel on air as it became apparent the band of snow was holding together and going to cause issues as it moved in, after advertising nothing but a chance of a flurry that morning!

37 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yep, it will be interesting (in a bad way) to see if we get blanked. 

**only thing I keep thinking about is with a warm winter, do we flip to a cold spring. If so, we could score an overnight event in March that at least gives an accumulating event.   

At this point, I almost don't even want a March novelty, nighttime, precipitation rate-dependent, grass-only, isolated, gone in 4 hours event to ruin the streak and give some credence to there having actually been a winter this year. Go big or go home, we're going for a full-season blanking on measurable snow! Gotta set the bar at the bottom so we won't be surprised when it happens again....