NorthHillsWx

Pretty amazing we’re looking at our 6th US hurricane landfall this season. I know they haven’t all been blockbusters but Laura, delta, Isaias, sally, and now probably zeta would be bonafide headliners by themselves in any season on this forum. We’re spoiled 

27 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That certainly has dropped from earlier and honestly not surprised given how it looks

New, stronger convection is beginning to fire near and around the center. The next 8-10 hours should give us a good idea where the intensity bar is set, though I still think there are enough positive factors going for this to be a stronger system than what these show. I like 70-80kts 

Zeta has developed an extremely impressive outflow pattern since last night. However, convection is struggling mightily near the core and a large moat has developed between the central convection and a cyclonically curved outer band. I believe we’ll see the outer band structure decay over the next 12 hours and an increase in convection over the center as that occurs. SST are sufficient and with the outflow pattern, I do expect strengthening to occur. However, the system took more of a hit over land than it seemed while over land. This spread out structure will take much longer to coalesce and see a quick uptick in intensity. I predict a slowly organizing system to peak and then stay at similar intensity through landfall. Probably on the order of 70-80kts. If this had a better structure I would be concerned of a stronger system but it will take considerable time to reorganize in its current state 

6 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

 

 

 

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Getting in the eyes of both delta and zeta in Mexico with no radar, no well defined eye on satellite, and both being small eyes, is extremely impressive. This storm was ramping up it just ran out of water. GFS is interesting, it deepens the system through landfall. I’m wondering if the increased forward speed will mitigate the time zeta spends in the cooler water/higher shear environment thus negating those weakening factors. The shear vector also is in line with forward motion which could mitigate that impact as well. This to me looks like a “solid” cat 1 landfall in Louisiana 

Epsilon looks pretty healthy this morning. In a season where hurricanes have struggled to maintain an eye for long stretches, thus storm is the exception 

20 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Very nice presentation. Large outer band. Perhaps even some frontal characteristics in the outer fringes due to the large-scale trough / upper low, with of course the purely tropical Epsilon still powering on in the center.

This is a neat system. Definitely has some frontal look to it in the outer segments but that small core keeps roaring away 

9 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Could go up to 5 or 6 majors if reanalysis says Paulette or Sally reached minimal Cat 3 strength

It would not surprise me at all if sally was upgraded due to the large amount of damage to use as evidence. Plenty to judge max wind speeds with. 

This is that beautiful fish storm 2020 had been lacking. Awesome to watch this system evolve and take advantage of what it was given 

Looks like NHC making the upgrade to a major hurricane and 100kts at the next advisory 

About the prettiest Cat 1 you’ll ever see

One of the prettiest storms of the season. Going to be another wave producer for the East coast 

40 minutes ago, Amped said:

992mb  55kt?  It's got a warm core with a cold core wrapped around it and an eye. 

I'd have guessed it's somewhere near 980mb and 75kt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s improved significantly from the advisory time. This is definitely a hurricane now, probably close to your estimate though that would be a massive pressure fall 

I’m thinking this will be an 85-95 kt storm. Dry air intrusion going to be biggest limiting factor until it reaches cooler water. 

Day late but stayed at the farm in Louisburg Saturday night and woke up to first frost of the year! Bottomed out at 36 degrees at my house, 37 at the nearby airport. Was amazing weather, had a bonfire the night before. Unfortunately we will feel summer like again this week

Gotta hand it to the GFS if this system develops in the western Caribbean, it’s been showing it in long range, now medium range for endless runs now

2020 is determined to paint every mile of coast from brownsville to Massachusetts in some sort of tropical watch/warning 

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

The GFS 06z run was just posted above by Prospero.  Could be a Wilma part 2 exactly 15 years later to the day.  (Wilma struck Florida on October 24)

I was about to say... that’s one of the most Wilma-like runs we’ve had since... Wilma. Think the moral of the story is there is an increasing signal for development in the place you’d expect it this time of year. I didn’t think 2020 would let the season end without a bang! Ensembles have been holding onto the idea of development in the W Caribbean for a few days now so seeing it show on the ops for several runs is not unexpected. I don’t think we’re done yet...

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Heh, was I analyzing frame by frame?

How about noting the obviously clear symmetrical eye at the end of that animation and obvious continued improvement. You know, the first clear eye we've had since Delta existed? 

I’d say you’ve been consistent in pointing out the gradual organizational trend of the storm today. Your posts have been bookended multiple times in the exact opposite observation by someone else thinking the storm is weakening after strengthening for 3 frames. Haha. Point is- we’re seeing a gradually strengthening system. Pressure falls and winds gradually responding. I think NHC forecast is on point though I can also see the storm failing to attain major again but barely. Large Ike-like storm at landfall so exact intensity is not that important anyways, other than for us weenies. 

Loving the frame by frame analysis of the IR appearance of the storm here... looks great... looks like crap... looks great again taking off now... it fell apart 

lol

Got a friend who just got to Cancun yesterday for his honeymoon. Why he went, I have no clue. He is reporting they have evacuated his entire resort inland. 

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Southern around to northeastern semicircle of the eyeband is going bananas on GLM flash count over the past 20 minutes. Great time for one more pass.

This is going to be an awesome pass 

Well y’all wedding went off without a hitch! Rained Friday before, a lot, but elected to forego a tented ceremony for Saturday instead opting for a (cheaper) tent for the cocktail hour area. Probably a good call as even though the rain had stopped well before the wedding I’m sure it would’ve been wet where everyone was walking around. Have been honeymooning in Antigua and just got home to a beautiful fall day, though it looks like I missed the really cool weather. 46 here this morning, felt amazing especially after having been in the tropics for 8 days! Got to witness the precursor to Delta roll through and actually had some wind damage (broken trees, palm fronds everywhere, and furniture blown into pools) as some heavy squalls pushed through for a couple days. Probably had some 50-60 mph gusts just with the tropical wave moving through! Don’t worry, 80% of the trip was beautiful weather and my wife understands my weather obsession and that I enjoyed watching the heavy weather push through a few times! Hard to be down due to any weather when you’re in a place like that! Back home, looks like we will actually have a fall this year! Leaves have begun turning at my house (maples, dogwoods) and the air has remained off for 2 weeks now. Delta’s remnants factor into the forecast this week though they should be rocketing through. Looks like a return to fall next week after this brief warmup. Can’t wait!

Thank you for you all who reached out with the wedding planning on tent decision. It all worked out and was a beautiful day and perfect weekend! 

This is likely a hurricane. If this had another 24 hours over water this system would be a beast, has “the look” 

0.22” so far since yesterday. Absolutely pouring at the moment. I’d imagine well go north of an inch today 

And.... the basin’s dead