NorthHillsWx

18z is an absolute clinic on how to flex the SER

18z GFS says SER wins out and no one is even close to frozen/freezing precip lol. Absolute worst pattern to be in, cold tempting us nearby but a SER just making sure we get no legitimate threats so we end up with rain after rain

Euro gets cold but *extremely* transient.

With the way it’s been and storms continuing to cut we end up with a lot of rain but nowhere near the modeled amounts just a lot of 0.5” - 1” rains frequently enough to keep everything soaked but no flooding, thankfully. Mountains obviously are seeing more but these giant modeled amounts east of there you can usually cut 3/4 out to get the actual rainfall totals with systems that end up west of the mountains

This is such a sh*t show pattern it’s not even funny

18z GFS says lights out for the piedmont with back to back ice storms

February 1-5 is our window for wintry weather in the southeast. Models have been extremely volatile but for the most part they are showing some love during this period, though each model differs significantly on which wave/timeframe that is. My take is that there is potential and we are just now getting into the 7-day window where models should begin to hone in a bit more on the evolution of smaller scale factors that will dictate our final outcome. SER will not be denied but the PAC is finally favorable and the active pattern persists. We need an overrunning scenario to score imo. Anything too amped is going to end up west of the Apps and I just don’t think we have the cold air supply with +NAO for a Miller B with freezing/frozen precipitation to work out east of the mountains. I was hoping for a full scale flip to cold with the pattern change but unfortunately it looks like it’s just going to be a 5-6 day window then a big warmup again. We can score during this timeframe, however, and there is potential showing up on all modeling with huge variance of how it plays out. Next 2 days will be critical as we sort out a hectic wave pattern in the 7-12 day timeframe

Holy hell a 1050 mb HP sitting over WV

GFS has some of the coldest air I’ve ever seen modeled for my area around February 5

First week of February alternating between 70 degree torches and snow and ice storms depending on which model and run you want to look at. Should be interesting at least

Picked up 1.11” of rain yesterday and into this morning complete with some pretty good lightning and thunder

I’m in Boone, everything has a glaze on it this morning with light rain falling

And Brown L is closing out close games. Something’s bound to give

IMO overnight runs confirmed the window is from the 26th-2nd. After that we likely warm.

Picked up 0.20” yesterday. Low of 49.8 this morning

If the EURO solution tor the 26th verified and we (central NC) rained with that track and strength of LP, go ahead and hang it up for the winter

Sometime between Jan 26-Feb 2 will feature a widespread SE winter storm for parts of the forum. You heard it here first folks. #optimistic #turnthatfrownupsidedown

Surprisingly there seems to be some consensus growing from the 27th-on as being an active period with a much colder look. EPS and GEFS on the same page… The previous “pattern change” that failed to materialize never featured consensus between those two. This may be a good sign for the end of the month. We laugh at fantasy storms but the fact we’re getting them on op runs is a very good sign as well that there is some potential during that period.

Radar presentation is quite impressive as it makes landfall

EPS is now honking a SE death ridge for the end of January. Other than today, it has 850 temp anomalies above average for the SE every. Single. Day. Through the end of the run. If there’s a cancel winter button it may have just been pressed. Euro and EPS folded like a lawn chair for the 22-27th period pattern change and now look abysmal beyond that. Hate to say it but this feels like we’re going to get blanked in the pure winter months.

I stayed up to midnight last night and watched it snow in Raleigh. It snowed again this morning. It reminded me how much I miss a real snow

Well, looks like the mighty Euro and EPS caved to the model that shall not be named

Mostly snow in Raleigh now.

Holds serve on the colder look but still nothing of interest winter weather wise

Moneys on PAC winning out and a continuation of the same pattern. Active cutters and brief cooldowns with no arctic connection. EPS has oversold cold all year I see no reason to expect it to change