NorthHillsWx

Mid 80’s this week and folks are still trying to sniff out snow. It’s over folks, not that it ever even began

Grass needs mowing and trees are budding. It’s spring time folks. Maybe we get a freak snow event but winter is over

Watch us get some crap white rain event in mid March that leads to 25 pages of posts and then some whitened mulch. That would send this winter out in the style it deserves

December 2018 was the last time my street was plowed. That shows the kind of rut we’re in.

They’ll be back here shortly

I don’t buy it at all. It’s just simply not cold enough for freezing rain and it will now be falling in daylight. I had held out hope that folks outside of the mountains would get a decent thump and it looked very promising as recently as 12z yesterday but models have trended: 1) Even slower. Now a daytime event Sunday and it gives the cool pool everyone outside the mountains is totally relying on more time to moderate 2) much drier in deform area. Mid levels dry out when you’d think precip would be solid and you end up with no snow to bring cold air down, a huge issue with temps 3) Further NW with low tracking inland 4) Presence of the dreaded warm nose Im not saying it’s impossible someone gets lucky but it would seem this threat is dead outside the mountains and even there the snow potential seems half of what it was yesterday through 12z

12z NAM went the wrong way. Everything has gone the wrong way since noon yesterday. Looking more and more like a mountains-only deal and even there they will have mixing issues. What a disaster the last 18 hours of model runs has been

It’s absurd. We’ve unlocked a new way to fail: a cool pool ULL that’s not even cold enough for snow even in foothills with a strong LP blossoming along the coast in early February

Ouch, long range ensembles now mostly hold onto the SE ridge idea through the end of the month. Ugly doesn’t do it justice. Not sure if the fat lady has sung but she’s warming up, as we do too.

Ouch… overnight and morning runs were not good for anyone. Hope something changes otherwise this is a novelty event for anyone who even sees snow outside the mountains. Here in Raleigh we’ll enjoy our not-even-that-cold rain

Usually it does a terrible job showing precipitation coverage (usually way underdone) but an above average job at depicting precip type

It’s usually very useful for thermals.

EPS has a different look but GFS is definitely trying to press the cold at the end of the month. Hopefully it settles further east but at range it’s a very good look. I still think we have a small shot of something during the 17-19th period followed by a warmup and then the final week of the month will need to be watched.

Upstate areas better be smiling after that Euro run. That’s a positive trend. NC mountain areas are about to get smoked! If there was a Storm anyone wanted to drive up for it would be this one. Wet snow is going to look beautiful up there

Canadian just continues to want no part of this

I think we (triangle) can throw in the towel. Probably could’ve yesterday but I was hanging onto hope. Really pulling for upstate and Georgia folks. Plenty of non-mountain areas still in play for a good storm!

Someone in the mountains is going to get a foot of snow out of this

Gotta say, for once a more progressive solution would’ve worked out a lot better for most areas. Saturday looks completely dry here now, this thing has slowed wayyyy down

I honestly think mesoscale models may be better for this event given how localized it is going to be. We’re starting to get to the period where I look at NAM thermals more than GFS and Euro and it certainly is maximizing dynamic cooling in the upstate/western piedmont area. For the mountains, I don’t want to jinx it, but this is looking more and more like a lock for a moderate-major snowstorm. KGSP has some of the most entertaining AFD’s of any office and this event is absolutely no different. I totally agree, this is going to be a nightmare to forecast outside the mountains up until it does what it does. Would not surprise me if this is an event a few counties go from a Special Weather statement to a WSW based on what’s actually happening and if the NAMs correct, those rates will overwhelm melting on everything. I think it’s either going to be ridiculously heavy snow with parachutes falling or cold rain. Nothing in between for upstate areas

Gfs keeps the 17th-19th window open at 18z. There is also a signal on the GEFS for this timeframe

18z GFS is much further south and a hair slower. If you live from Augusta to greenwood to Charlotte, 18z is about as good as you can ask for

18z NAM says what’s up eastern TN!

If the antecedent airmass around this storm was even close to what you’d expect for the time of year the H5 setup on GEFS is just about textbook for an area-wide major snow. Too bad there just isn’t any cold air available north of the system or this thing could’ve gone bonkers with the qpf forecast

If I’m in the mountains or SW Virginia, I’m feeling really really good right now for snow, possibly significant. If I’m along the 85 corridor from the upstate through Charlotte to the triad, I’m feeling pretty good about seeing snow. Accumulations are 50/50 there right now. East of 85, you’re getting into “say a prayer” mode. Im happy as long as part of this forum scores with this one. It was never going to be a synoptic area-wide event so really not much has changed other than timing and where the narrow snow area goes. I bet it waffles back and forth the next few days. If you want snow further east, look for a more progressive, amped solution. Slower solutions are getting tugged further north and west and are allowing the upper levels to warm further east after the low passes.

There’s been a signal for something in the 17-19th timeframe along with some actual cold air unlike with this weekend’s system