NorthHillsWx

Most accurate depiction of our winter

Lol. Even the other sub forums on the east coast have slowed down/become negative. It had been hopeful until last two days despite lack of model support for anything

I’m sure we’ll get that March car-topper that’s just enough to keep this board afloat

Crickets...

I do appreciate pattern recognition and the fact that it does matter and increase your chances but I also can’t remember a time when we actually got a storm with nothing showing up on the models. I don’t care about an 18z gfs one run fantasy storm or one euro run, but almost always for something to happen here it stays somewhat consistent on the models from the long to mid range. I believe even though we have a decent pattern, the lack of anything showing does not bode well. Then what happens when we lose this blocking? I really am beginning to wonder if we get an accumulating snowfall in my part of N.C. this year. I hate to be so negative but burning through our peak climo with temps on the upswing in a few weeks just plain sucks. I understand those who hate the whining and negativity on this thread board but at what point do you lose hope? Outside of a great snowstorm that turned to rain in early December two years ago and really tainted the system here, it’s been 25 straight months of nothing. No real threats, no near misses, nothing. We haven’t even fought the wake county rain/snow line during that time, there’s been no system even remotely close to making it a nowcast scenario. And no, that ULL does not count. Those are screwball systems. The system I got two inches out of last year was fun but a total consolation prize. That was not a snowstorm, just a rogue event in a putrid year. It didn’t even stick to the road. I know we live in the south and I know snow is the exception, not the norm, but the total lack of close calls, forecasting storm inside 3 days (we’ve known our fate on every system last 2+ years 5 days out), and obvious lack of snow has made this the toughest period as a snow lover in my life. Vent over, I feel better lol. Onto fabulous February

Shaping up to be the 3rd snowless January in a row

Situated in a cold pocket this morning. 24 for the low

Surprised but we picked up 0.24” overnight and this morning. Didn’t even think we’d have measurable rain yesterday morning. Wish winter storms would overproduce. Clouds breaking, 52 right now. Pretty afternoon

I’m sure February will save us

If the storm at hour 210 on the Para materialized and took that track in peak climo and we didn’t get a snowstorm I would throw in the towel

The lack of snowstorms on the ops can be overcome with plenty of cold air around but up until the end of the run there is no real arctic cold showing up. I don’t get below 28 degrees the entire run. I feel like the last three weeks or so the gfs has been showing arctic air towards the end of the run but it hasn’t materialized. It’s getting to be mid January and we need something to break right for us. If we waste this blocking it’s going to be a gut punch

31 atm. Got down to 28 last night and very frosty

Louisiana is better at getting snowstorms than here

Tic-tok, tic-tok

If you wake up and precip is moving in with air temp of 38 and dew point of 32 it’s not going to work out well

Well can confirm there were some surprises in eastern N.C. Driving through Plymouth this morning on the way to go hunt and there a couple inches on the ground and roads covered.

I swore I wouldn’t get invested in this one. I knew I had no chance. But, got thrown in the advisory. Expected something, even a car topper after that. Nope. Can’t even buy a dusting here in peak winter

Couple bouts of white rain. Other than that, nada. Can’t call an event that was never supposed to produce over an inch a bust, but feels like one

36 and rain some pingers now too. Temps dropped 2 degrees since sunset

Amen

HRRR really keeping hope alive for the Triangle folks. If nothing else, it’s been consistent

Awesome awesome cold air look at the end of the GFS run. Classic cold air transport from the arctic

Feel for you guys. That’s a gut punch

From friend in Blowing Rock early this morning. About 4” in these pics and they’ve picked up a couple more since then. A good spot to be today

So in summary: 1) nothing has changed East of the Triad. Forecast still on track. Some areas saw flakes this morning but it was never supposed to stick outside of Triad. Still on track for the C-1 forecast and I do think some areas even East of the triangle will have some surprise totals higher than that 2) Unfortunately, bust for the triad folks. You’ll see snow, but it will not amount to the totals we were seeing last night. Deform band has trended south on models too, so it will be a wait and see for you guys 3) Charlotte is in play with that deform band. Actually has trended in that direction today 4) Mountains have done well, but definitely a screw zone even there. Foothills are just getting into it. Probably slightly less than forecast there but there will be some decent snow