NorthHillsWx

I can tell y’all this is going to go back and forth every run until the event begins and ULL tracks are notoriously hard to pin down at range but we just need to keep the general idea alive the next couple days before we even remotely press the cancel button on this one. 18z looks fine to me at this range

RAH has introduced snow into my point click forecast

It’s February 7 and we do not have a single storm thread for the season, not even a fail (no a thread about the 3 day cold outbreak and severe threads don’t count) That’s pathetic even for our low standards! This is the first mid range threat of the season. I say wait past 0z and if it’s still there someone (not me) start one tomorrow. That way we can say we killed at least one storm this year with a thread

Euro at 500 mb was a SIGNIFICANT improvement. EPS and GEFS both ticked way up in favor of something in the forum. Dare I say 12z was an excellent trend ACROSS guidance as we break into medium range inside 120 hours. Still absolutely not even close to a lock or even consensus but we’re inside 120 hours and we’re still tracking with positive trends!

Alright, at the risk of being shredded by posters of the forum, I will speak my peace in regards to temps: Modeled BL temps do not matter in this setup. There is is no cold air source (we know) and if this system wasn’t there it’s likely in the 50’s. But that’s the beauty of cool pool ULL- they do not rely on CAA for snow. It’s a top down “cold manufacturing” process. If you don’t get dynamic cooling from heavy rates, no snow. What we’re looking for in this setup is going to be a system going negative tilt, rapid deepening of the surface low, and a sharp area of convergence on the back side leading to enhanced rates. These systems are extremely track-dependent and will not be a synoptic event for the area, but they can be significant over producers and have led to some great systems in the past for those under “the band.” Happy tracking

I’ll say this- if the only storm this year is someone from the forum outside the mountains getting nuked in a narrow band by an anomalous upper level bowling ball low in an otherwise abysmal pattern with absolutely no cold air source even remotely available nearby with zero Atlantic blocking and sandwiched between two spring like warmups, it would just be so fitting

GEFS made big improvements too from previous runs. Easily the best yet for this system. Op was not on an island

For what it’s worth, as 12z today 100 hours out we have: GFS- bowling ball ULL ideal setup for heavy snow and dynamic cooling where banding sets up CMC- similar to GFS in placement/timing but more neutral tilt and too slow to ramp up for same dynamic system ICON- very similar to GFS Dare I say, we have something realistic to track? Doubt Euro goes full GFS but if it has a similar idea (hasn’t been far off) I’d say we’re really in the game. Personally, ULL setups are very exciting bc they can be so dynamic and can lead to glory when nothing else will work (this year).

For posterity’s sake- the 12z CMC trended much better than previous runs. Much more neutral tilt and slower. Not as amped as GFS and obviously doesn’t get it done with the dynamic cooling (what this entire setup relies on) but it’s another model suite that actually looks very similar to GFS at upper levels than just a few runs ago

That 12z GFS depiction would be an extremely impressive band of snow somewhere in central NC. Sounding looks very similar to the March 2009 event in the upstate with potential for thunder snow. Also some pretty good winds with the SLP winding up. All in all that would be a paste bomb. We’re roughly 100 hours out so, hey, this is the closest we’ve been this ‘winter’!

I’d have to think if the ICON was taken verbatim with moderate to heavy snow for 4-5 hours and 32-33 degree surface temps, someone in a band would have some decent accumulation. That’s not necessarily an unusual look for these types of setups where accumulation is completely rate driven and usually sets up in narrow bands. That’s the risk we take with the “exotic look” though!

ICON coming in with a central NC snow “storm”

I was at Clemson for that, my freshman year. Was an awesome snowstorm! Pulled several cars out of the ditches on perimeter road with my truck.

Strangely a cool pool ULL snow event seems more plausible than snow by normal means in this sh*t pattern. We can’t do normal right so how bout we try the ‘exotic’ look? About a 1/100 chance of this happening as GFS is really the only model onboard but hey, that’s probably the closest to digital snow anyone in this forum has gotten this year! GEFS has several members showing more southern solutions, btw. Still very, very low probability

32.8 with extremely heavy frost this morning

Beautiful week coming up. Pretty excited for sunshine and 60’s!

Cold day today, been sitting around 46 last couple hours. Picked up 0.31” yesterday to continue the wet week. 1.23” total for the week. Ground is officially the consistency of soup in my poorly drained backyard. Next weeks warmup project will be installing a French drain.

Wait I take back what I said. The 12z GFS is definitely 100% right. Look at the kuchera map from the GFS, it literally puts Raleigh and Raleigh alone in a snow hole

Yes, cold chasing moisture behind a rapidly departing offshore LP on the 10-day GFS, what could possibly go wrong?

Doesn’t count as measurable snowfall you need at least 0.01”. God our bar is low and it’s still a challenge to reach it

Hate to say it, but if a late February SSW event is what we’re hanging out hats on for a winter storm in the south, the fat lady has sung. Looks like a blanking for the entire forum outside of the NW flow areas in the mountains. Any cold pushes are too transient in the progressive nina pattern were stuck in and even though were getting more rain than one would expect from a nina, its always associated with a warmup. Time to worry about our soggy yards and what were going to do to fix them during next weeks taste of spring.

Wintry mix right now. Rain, sleet, a few flakes. 38 degrees

Latest HRRR brings some snow east of 95 in a heavy burst. I think some areas could get a taste of winter

Misery index was the highest in my lifetime. We’ve had snowless Januarys in my life but couple that with the hottest January of my lifetime and lack of absolutely anything to track within 7 days, and the rash of rainy/foggy days, this makes January 2022 easily the worst January of my life (weather wise).

35.8 with moderate rain here. Absolutely brutal weather