NorthHillsWx

I honestly think mesoscale models may be better for this event given how localized it is going to be. We’re starting to get to the period where I look at NAM thermals more than GFS and Euro and it certainly is maximizing dynamic cooling in the upstate/western piedmont area. For the mountains, I don’t want to jinx it, but this is looking more and more like a lock for a moderate-major snowstorm. KGSP has some of the most entertaining AFD’s of any office and this event is absolutely no different. I totally agree, this is going to be a nightmare to forecast outside the mountains up until it does what it does. Would not surprise me if this is an event a few counties go from a Special Weather statement to a WSW based on what’s actually happening and if the NAMs correct, those rates will overwhelm melting on everything. I think it’s either going to be ridiculously heavy snow with parachutes falling or cold rain. Nothing in between for upstate areas

Gfs keeps the 17th-19th window open at 18z. There is also a signal on the GEFS for this timeframe

18z GFS is much further south and a hair slower. If you live from Augusta to greenwood to Charlotte, 18z is about as good as you can ask for

18z NAM says what’s up eastern TN!

If the antecedent airmass around this storm was even close to what you’d expect for the time of year the H5 setup on GEFS is just about textbook for an area-wide major snow. Too bad there just isn’t any cold air available north of the system or this thing could’ve gone bonkers with the qpf forecast

If I’m in the mountains or SW Virginia, I’m feeling really really good right now for snow, possibly significant. If I’m along the 85 corridor from the upstate through Charlotte to the triad, I’m feeling pretty good about seeing snow. Accumulations are 50/50 there right now. East of 85, you’re getting into “say a prayer” mode. Im happy as long as part of this forum scores with this one. It was never going to be a synoptic area-wide event so really not much has changed other than timing and where the narrow snow area goes. I bet it waffles back and forth the next few days. If you want snow further east, look for a more progressive, amped solution. Slower solutions are getting tugged further north and west and are allowing the upper levels to warm further east after the low passes.

There’s been a signal for something in the 17-19th timeframe along with some actual cold air unlike with this weekend’s system

I think it’s actually the opposite. I think faster timing gives less time for the upper level cool pool temps to moderate allowing for rates to capitalize on top down dynamic cooling. Slower solutions are showing moderation of temps in the upper levels and thus no cold air available and mostly rain solutions. The HP is kind of a non factor here besides for storm track bc the air associated with it and dew points are just too high to make a difference for freezing/frozen

12z GFS another good run for western half of the piedmont. Maybe not quite as good as 6z but still very heavy snow in similar areas

ICON a big hit for mountains/western piedmont/SW Va. Its been very persistent last few runs, I’ll give it that

It took till February 8th for something to track but better late than never

Someone getting NAMd for sure this evening

Battle of the losing streaks in chapel hill…

Agreed but no one can write it off yet either from the upstate through the piedmont and ULL are best known for surprises. I really think the upstate is more in play than a lot of modeling has shown to this point. For points east it really is going to depend on SLP track and strength and be an absolute thread the needle type of deal but it certainly will be entertaining to track bc I don’t think this will be resolved until the event starts. I’ve never known one of these setups to be resolved with any lead time, this will be no different

This seems thread-worthy at this point with all guidance buying into something for somewhere in the forum 4 days out. Not sure who dares start it though…

Unfortunately with an ULL setup that’s just how this is going to be! You need to be just west of the low which is vertically stacked and where the banding sets up. You also need a stronger low. Euro has progressively trended towards a more GFS and there is very little wiggle room here as there is no cold air availability other than what the storm has produced. That being said, nothing about the overnight runs trended worse. Euro actually trended better. The way I see it, someone is getting snow from this but where that is is tbd and going to change on modeling every run until it begins. That’s just the nature of this type of system but it’s a fun one to track with big upside for a small area

Another Euro run, another positive trend from that model. Agree, mountains, NE piedmont, SW VA all seem to be in good spots for snow from this but it still has legs anywhere from the upstate to the MA and points east

GFS really presses the cold mid month around the 17th. Much colder look than last run, more in line with the 12z run

You can throw the ICON in there for the same areas, if you dare speak of the ICON

Someone must’ve whispered the word “climo” and then “I-85” into the GFS’s ear before this run

0z GFS a big hit for NW piedmont, SW VA and mountains.

I can tell y’all this is going to go back and forth every run until the event begins and ULL tracks are notoriously hard to pin down at range but we just need to keep the general idea alive the next couple days before we even remotely press the cancel button on this one. 18z looks fine to me at this range

RAH has introduced snow into my point click forecast

It’s February 7 and we do not have a single storm thread for the season, not even a fail (no a thread about the 3 day cold outbreak and severe threads don’t count) That’s pathetic even for our low standards! This is the first mid range threat of the season. I say wait past 0z and if it’s still there someone (not me) start one tomorrow. That way we can say we killed at least one storm this year with a thread

Euro at 500 mb was a SIGNIFICANT improvement. EPS and GEFS both ticked way up in favor of something in the forum. Dare I say 12z was an excellent trend ACROSS guidance as we break into medium range inside 120 hours. Still absolutely not even close to a lock or even consensus but we’re inside 120 hours and we’re still tracking with positive trends!