NorthHillsWx

This storm will require some serious patience this week. GFS and Euro have ticked up intensity and as have some of the intensity guidance. Spending this much time over untouched waters in the gulf one would expect at least a hurricane at some point. Going to be a challenging forecast on all fronts 

Just below 2” as I go to bed. Definitely a good rain but a bit of a bust compared to the models and forecasts. May end up with 2.5” after tonight’s rain, raining good atm. 

Woke up to 2.74” and still lightly raining. 

GFS now takes a hurricane into Texas. Much quicker 

Radar is anemic here too but it’s pouring outside, as hard as it has all day. Feels more tropical 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We have Tropical Depression Twenty Two. Advisory at 7pm EST. 

On cue 

Recon showing a broad circulation but it does have west wind. SFMR 30-35 kts. FL winds slightly lower. Probably enough to classify as a depression 

Anyone in the triangle blame me for saying this has the feel of a snowstorm we were promised moisture would not be the problem, only to have the back end show up about 12 hours before it’s supposed to and not even half the expected qpf? Haha

20 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Seems like Sally lost some of the tropical moisture connection or was it robbed by some of the thunderstorms that formed?

Yea, what’s strange is it turned into a large area of stratiform rain. Almost no tropical downpours, which we almost always see with these systems. My guess was the wedge overperformed (shocker) and it lost some moisture as the boundary level flow cancelled the tropical connection. That and the fact sally wasn’t able to maintain as a tropical produced an overrunning event that expanded coverage of rain but decreased rates and flooding potential. It’s also ending much earlier than expected. Per nws I was supposed to rain through tomorrow morning with 2-3” tonight on top of my “1-2” from today but I see the back edge approaching and I’m only at 1.10.”  I’m seriously doubting We even hit 2”. My farm in Franklin county, however, somehow is going on 4.” Something must have moved through there overnight 

Just over an inch here. Not expecting but maybe 2-2.5” total. Little bit of a bust on the low end for sure 

CMC would make every surfer on the gulf coast happy.

12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

90L looks to have several areas of vorticity along the axis of the elongated surface trough. However, in the last three or four hours, it looks like a dominate vorticity maximum is taking over along the southwest extension of the trough. Really need recon. Somewhere in this mess may be a closed surface circulation. If it happens to be under that more dominate mid level vort max, we may have ourselves a TC.

Need recon for sure. Slowly getting its act together. With generally favorable conditions this thing could ramp up quicker than forecast by models to do so. It already seems ahead of the curve 

Hard to tell but looking at LL clouds undershooting the middle area of vorticity you outlined makes me believe that MAY be the dominant center. See a lot of north moving clouds to the east of the high convective tops, maybe some west to east moving clouds below it. Very hard to tell, last ASCAT made it seem like center would be further south but obviously fluid at this point

18 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

A low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic, 99L, is transitioning more warm core with time. It would of course be fitting for 2020 if a Subtropical Storm grabs the last seasonal name prior to the Greek alphabet. lol... Perhaps 90L can get its act together in short order today and snatch the name away. The race is on...

Haven’t even looked at this. Judging by that sat shot the race may already be won... 

Though conditions are generally favorable now, some strong southerly shear looks to be present the further north the system gets in the gulf in a few days. I think that’s why we’re seeing some modeling show a sharp bend to the left, depicting a shallow system caught in low level steering flow. Too early to tell, but the long term prognosis of this disturbance does not look ideal for significant intensification over the long run

It also looks like a broad area of rotation in a larger trough. It would not surprise me to see center formation in the NE envelope, as some models have predicted. That blowup there this morning seems consistent and less pulse like. It may be able to induce pressure falls and eventually become the dominant center. Waiting on visible this am. Overall it’s a healthy looking system, probably will become at least a TD today 

Still looks a little “popcorns” but making progress. This system will be in no hurry to go anywhere 

41 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

50 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

funny how euro shows storms weak like laura and sally..  it's showing this storm weak as well uh oh...

 

I don't really pay the ops too much mind for intensity. Sure, it's eye-opening when they go bonkers on a particular system. You do want it to show a deep versus shallow feature, especially in the mid-levels. But generally the global ops have underperformed on intensity for systems that have not yet developed this year. Of course the TC models handle that better once a TCG has occurred however, which what they are better designed for.

I only use ops before a storm forms to find potential. When systems show up consistently on the ops, as this has, it usually means there’s a good chance for development. For intensity, they are good to look at for trends, strengthening vs weakening, once a system has formed, but not for actual intensity 

ACE is a useful tool but it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. We’ve had extremely high ACE years with barely any impacts and low ace years that we’re high impact. It also doesn’t do late blooming storms justice, like Laura. Also, you can have 1 or 2 storms produce basically an entire seasons worth of ace and then have a slow rest of the season. 

Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone!

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Did Nola even get a drop of rain?

From a hurricane warning to a sunny day 

Yep, GFS actually brings it near to where sally made landfall, stalls it out, then loops back SW. I think a wide range of track possibilities are on the table. Models definitely sniffing this one out though, unlike sally 

I’m going all in on 90L. Bathtub water, decreasing shear, unstable air mass, and location location location. SW gulf is a hotspot for quick spin ups (orientation of geography?). Given the well organized look seen this morning would not surprise me that any additional increase would lead to formation of a TD by tonight. I think 90L wins the race for “W” and I think it could also become our next hurricane. Going to be a painfully slow mover and since no vortex exists yet models have taken up almost every inch of the western gulf for possible tracks. I personally think a long northward trek into Texas is most likely, but will need a defined coc before we know anything on that front

Impressive satellite appearance on IR 

Already some model support for development. Intensity models generally show strengthening until landfall 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Someone else make the thread. 90L looks good to develop. I'm exhausted.  

Yes, it’s a good thing we cancelled this season halfway through August because the globals weren’t picking up on development. I can’t imagine if this had actually turned out to be an active season!

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

ACE is now skyrocketing. We should be over 100 sometime next week.

Teddy should get us there alone