NorthHillsWx

Day late but stayed at the farm in Louisburg Saturday night and woke up to first frost of the year! Bottomed out at 36 degrees at my house, 37 at the nearby airport. Was amazing weather, had a bonfire the night before. Unfortunately we will feel summer like again this week

Gotta hand it to the GFS if this system develops in the western Caribbean, it’s been showing it in long range, now medium range for endless runs now

2020 is determined to paint every mile of coast from brownsville to Massachusetts in some sort of tropical watch/warning 

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

The GFS 06z run was just posted above by Prospero.  Could be a Wilma part 2 exactly 15 years later to the day.  (Wilma struck Florida on October 24)

I was about to say... that’s one of the most Wilma-like runs we’ve had since... Wilma. Think the moral of the story is there is an increasing signal for development in the place you’d expect it this time of year. I didn’t think 2020 would let the season end without a bang! Ensembles have been holding onto the idea of development in the W Caribbean for a few days now so seeing it show on the ops for several runs is not unexpected. I don’t think we’re done yet...

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Heh, was I analyzing frame by frame?

How about noting the obviously clear symmetrical eye at the end of that animation and obvious continued improvement. You know, the first clear eye we've had since Delta existed? 

I’d say you’ve been consistent in pointing out the gradual organizational trend of the storm today. Your posts have been bookended multiple times in the exact opposite observation by someone else thinking the storm is weakening after strengthening for 3 frames. Haha. Point is- we’re seeing a gradually strengthening system. Pressure falls and winds gradually responding. I think NHC forecast is on point though I can also see the storm failing to attain major again but barely. Large Ike-like storm at landfall so exact intensity is not that important anyways, other than for us weenies. 

Loving the frame by frame analysis of the IR appearance of the storm here... looks great... looks like crap... looks great again taking off now... it fell apart 

lol

Got a friend who just got to Cancun yesterday for his honeymoon. Why he went, I have no clue. He is reporting they have evacuated his entire resort inland. 

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Southern around to northeastern semicircle of the eyeband is going bananas on GLM flash count over the past 20 minutes. Great time for one more pass.

This is going to be an awesome pass 

Well y’all wedding went off without a hitch! Rained Friday before, a lot, but elected to forego a tented ceremony for Saturday instead opting for a (cheaper) tent for the cocktail hour area. Probably a good call as even though the rain had stopped well before the wedding I’m sure it would’ve been wet where everyone was walking around. Have been honeymooning in Antigua and just got home to a beautiful fall day, though it looks like I missed the really cool weather. 46 here this morning, felt amazing especially after having been in the tropics for 8 days! Got to witness the precursor to Delta roll through and actually had some wind damage (broken trees, palm fronds everywhere, and furniture blown into pools) as some heavy squalls pushed through for a couple days. Probably had some 50-60 mph gusts just with the tropical wave moving through! Don’t worry, 80% of the trip was beautiful weather and my wife understands my weather obsession and that I enjoyed watching the heavy weather push through a few times! Hard to be down due to any weather when you’re in a place like that! Back home, looks like we will actually have a fall this year! Leaves have begun turning at my house (maples, dogwoods) and the air has remained off for 2 weeks now. Delta’s remnants factor into the forecast this week though they should be rocketing through. Looks like a return to fall next week after this brief warmup. Can’t wait!

Thank you for you all who reached out with the wedding planning on tent decision. It all worked out and was a beautiful day and perfect weekend! 

This is likely a hurricane. If this had another 24 hours over water this system would be a beast, has “the look” 

0.22” so far since yesterday. Absolutely pouring at the moment. I’d imagine well go north of an inch today 

And.... the basin’s dead 

43 low this morning at the home in Raleigh and 41 at the farm in Louisburg 

OK- I need y’alls help today! My wedding is OUTSIDE this Saturday in Louisburg NC. Moisture from Beta will be a factor, but models seem to have trended to a faster passage before a front comes through Sunday. In fact, everything I see seems dry for Saturday afternoon (weddings at 5). My dilemma is I have to let the tenting company know by today if we need a tent for the ceremony. It would be a major eyesore in the front yard of the house and is costly (about 5k). I only want the tent if we need it. What do you all think about the forecast for Saturday afternoon for Louisburg? Currently, I’m leaning towards not having it. Thoughts?

Low of 46 this morning. Bring it on!!!

Beta actually looks slightly more organized this hour than all day yesterday. Holding its own 

5 hours ago, calculus1 said:

Ha! Good catch. Slipped up there. Sally, not Sandy.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
 

After living on the tropical forum for last couple months I’d be OK never hearing the name Sandy mentioned again 

18 minutes ago, brentrich said:

So is there a possible we will be seeing a major hurricane in the brewing? 

I don’t think so. However, the environment around this system is complex. Shear will decrease, then change vector, then really decrease, but extremely dry air will be a factor, as will land. There will be moments this system can take advantage of, but in talking about majors, you usually see less barriers. I learned a lesson with sally though: never write off a gulf system. That storm was 6 hours from being a major, amazingly. I don’t think the ceiling is high for Beta, given the above reasons. I’m not locked into that call, though, as this is an extremely challenging environment 

Recon finding a slightly stronger system, though it does look elongated 

1 minute ago, Memphis Weather said:

Likely the radar imagery from Portugal is what pushed this to classification. It would probably have been declared a STS in post season analysis had they not named it today.

I’ve seen worse looking radar presentations from June junk making landfall on the gulf coast in years past. If we name all subtropical storms, this should definitely be named. 

Waste of a name. Good thing this is into the alphabet names. 

LOL

43 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Well that definitely rules out a naming bias. They went as the data suggested best to them. Good old science.

 

They could have been tempted to hold out a bit more for recon and give the name to TD22. Wilfred likely has a short cycle of existence due to future hostile shear. TD22 could end up being a significant landfall event for someone. At any rate, water under the bridge now.

I would be shocked if this isn’t Alpha as we speak. Looks much better on both VIS and IR. I think it was a pure lack of data and unfortunate circumstance that the plane had to turn back, as the only reasons 22 didn’t get named. 

Wilfred...

Looks like a wild race to the W storm. 22 had a lead but 98L is rounding turn 4 with momentum. Going to be down to the wire

As I said that, 98L wins! Wilfred is born