NorthHillsWx

High Wind warning now up for the Triangle with gusts to 60 mph possible. What changed? More efficient mixing of winds to surface with daytime heating? Not seeing any wind reports near that downstream of us in Raleigh 

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Makes me wonder what kind of impact this will have on the New Orleans Levees. Coming in at a simliar angle to Katrina, just a bit further west.

Nowhere near the same. This is an average sized storm booking it with winds picking up at very end. Katrina was a mid gulf monster and had days to buildup that massive surge. Not fair to even include this in the discussion with the K word down there 

Just now, Windspeed said:

Man it's going to really be something if this reaches Cat 3 this afternoon. Nobody saw this coming.

Would be the shortest thread of a major US landfall in AmericanWx.com history 

26 minutes ago, Amped said:

Maybe it strengthens a little.    If the pressure only fell 12mb in the last 12 hrs,,  it's not going to make CAT3 extrapolating that rate over the next 6 hrs.

No chance at cat 3. I’m only saying I do not think this is going to weaken. It’s still (slowly) deepening and sat presentation has improved since this morning. It only has maybe 6 hours until the eyewall is onshore 

1 minute ago, Amped said:

The problem with this graphic is that the first forecast point, 12 hours, the storm is already inland 

This is not the same look delta had coming in. This is a well formed strengthening storm. Conditions won’t permit it to go crazy but this is still strengthening and has just about run out of time for any weakening to take place 

On another note, the eye is now becoming visible on the long range LIX radar. 

I think it, presentation wise, looks the best as it has yet. The deep convection is more consistent, it had that popcorn look when the eye feature was more pronounced, and it is popping an eye on visible as we speak. Recent trends and forward motion, I don’t see this weakening. I think cat 2, 85 kt landfall 

NHC now going with 100mph near landfall 

Me thinks intensity guidance is gonna bust low low after what I’m looking at tonight on satellite 

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

I'd say this rise is temporary due to reorganization of the convective band currently wrapping the vortex that was evident on MW. Zeta's core still has 24 hours over good OHC to deepen.

Agreed. If this convective flare up persists, it seems it will, those pressures will come down quick. That’s a large amount of heat being expelled into the atmosphere 

Pretty amazing we’re looking at our 6th US hurricane landfall this season. I know they haven’t all been blockbusters but Laura, delta, Isaias, sally, and now probably zeta would be bonafide headliners by themselves in any season on this forum. We’re spoiled 

27 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That certainly has dropped from earlier and honestly not surprised given how it looks

New, stronger convection is beginning to fire near and around the center. The next 8-10 hours should give us a good idea where the intensity bar is set, though I still think there are enough positive factors going for this to be a stronger system than what these show. I like 70-80kts 

Zeta has developed an extremely impressive outflow pattern since last night. However, convection is struggling mightily near the core and a large moat has developed between the central convection and a cyclonically curved outer band. I believe we’ll see the outer band structure decay over the next 12 hours and an increase in convection over the center as that occurs. SST are sufficient and with the outflow pattern, I do expect strengthening to occur. However, the system took more of a hit over land than it seemed while over land. This spread out structure will take much longer to coalesce and see a quick uptick in intensity. I predict a slowly organizing system to peak and then stay at similar intensity through landfall. Probably on the order of 70-80kts. If this had a better structure I would be concerned of a stronger system but it will take considerable time to reorganize in its current state 

6 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

 

 

 

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Getting in the eyes of both delta and zeta in Mexico with no radar, no well defined eye on satellite, and both being small eyes, is extremely impressive. This storm was ramping up it just ran out of water. GFS is interesting, it deepens the system through landfall. I’m wondering if the increased forward speed will mitigate the time zeta spends in the cooler water/higher shear environment thus negating those weakening factors. The shear vector also is in line with forward motion which could mitigate that impact as well. This to me looks like a “solid” cat 1 landfall in Louisiana 

Epsilon looks pretty healthy this morning. In a season where hurricanes have struggled to maintain an eye for long stretches, thus storm is the exception 

20 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Very nice presentation. Large outer band. Perhaps even some frontal characteristics in the outer fringes due to the large-scale trough / upper low, with of course the purely tropical Epsilon still powering on in the center.

This is a neat system. Definitely has some frontal look to it in the outer segments but that small core keeps roaring away 

9 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Could go up to 5 or 6 majors if reanalysis says Paulette or Sally reached minimal Cat 3 strength

It would not surprise me at all if sally was upgraded due to the large amount of damage to use as evidence. Plenty to judge max wind speeds with. 

This is that beautiful fish storm 2020 had been lacking. Awesome to watch this system evolve and take advantage of what it was given 

Looks like NHC making the upgrade to a major hurricane and 100kts at the next advisory 

About the prettiest Cat 1 you’ll ever see

One of the prettiest storms of the season. Going to be another wave producer for the East coast 

40 minutes ago, Amped said:

992mb  55kt?  It's got a warm core with a cold core wrapped around it and an eye. 

I'd have guessed it's somewhere near 980mb and 75kt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s improved significantly from the advisory time. This is definitely a hurricane now, probably close to your estimate though that would be a massive pressure fall 

I’m thinking this will be an 85-95 kt storm. Dry air intrusion going to be biggest limiting factor until it reaches cooler water.