NorthHillsWx

Ready for liftoff.

Per Twitter, sounds like Josh nailed this one.

Significant signal…

Sickening radar returns across PR. This is going to be a devastating flooding impact there. Several gust reports over 100 mph, definitely a feisty storm. Will be interesting seeing if Josh can get the eye in DR

Per recon this is just a tick below a hurricane. Slowly but surely organizing a core. Good convective burst over the center right now. Looks like some mid level dry air is the biggest hindrance at the moment as, based on cloud pattern, shear has decreased. Still not an ideal shear environment by any means but not enough to stop this from slowly strengthening

Regardless of Fiona’s strength/land interaction/current location and heading, models are now showing a much deeper trough approaching the EC. This raises the probability of a recurve significantly. GEFS has been more adamant about this being a deeper trough and looks like other model suites are falling in-line. I expect windshield wiping to continue but not to the extent we’ve seen. I don’t want to rule anything off the table but in this setup I believe it’s a matter of how far west Fiona gets before it recurves vs whether or not the system recurves. An alternate but very unlikely scenario is the system opens up into a wave when you combine land interaction with current structure and ends up plodding west with the trade winds. That is the only way this avoids the trough given modeling trends. I don’t see an organized system of any intensity missing that trough connection

I am becoming more concerned about a EC impact. I think models may have jumped out to sea when the data was originally received and processed that Fiona was stronger than they had initialized. The increase in strength however did not mean a deeper system in this case. This baby is rolling with the trade winds right now. Pulsating convection is not going to pull this northward, it’s stuck in low level flow until shear abates. I think we’ll continue to see westward shifts as I believe the original out to sea shift was primarily based off the premise this was a deeper system. Florida to the Carolina’s need to watch this one. If it makes it to the Bahamas the environment becomes favorable. An upper level anticyclone and a very deep area of high oceanic heat content in a spot that is climatologically favorable. This is a real threat. Happy tracking

59.5 this morning. It was awesome!

Please let Fiona die fast so we don’t have to say Fiona more than a few times. Fiona

All that aside, and this is pure fantasy land so just fun to mention, but the GFS setup is the way you get a strong hurricane into New England. Blocking high preventing escape to the east, incoming trough to the west pulling the system poleward, and a system accelerating into landfall offsetting the cold water. I know it’s fantasy and never going to happen that way but from and upper level pattern depicted that’s how you get a strong storm up north. Essentially slingshot it up through NE

Wish there was a way to award the GFS a weenie tag for that run

As has been said here, the disturbance looks very near to be a TD. Outpacing models to this point. However, shear does not improve from this point through the weekend. Maybe it can be like Earl and fight off the shear enough to intensify in spite of the hostile conditions, but I expect the system to struggle. I do feel confident this will become a TC sooner rather than later. Definitely a land threat

One common theme is development of this system will be a marathon, not a sprint.

Finally- something interesting. @GaWxyou have been all over this one. Thanks for the discussion during the doldrums.

Finished with 0.16” from the thin line of storms that moved through yesterday evening. Brings the mtd total to 2.43”

Max Heat Index today was 96.1…. Thought we were past this!

Rest of this week after tomorrow should be much nicer

An additional 0.45” and our first thunder of the day 1.80” two-day total

Humidity here is crazy too

Will update in morning but this is our best rain in awhile. Edit: 1.35” total for yesterday/this morning. Our biggest single day rainfall since first week of July

Post of the year candidate

I’ve been through the eye or eyewall of: Alex (Nags Head, Cat 2) Arthur (Morehead City, Cat 2) Charley (Nags Head, Cat 1 weakening to TS) Dorian (Morehead City, Cat 1) Fran (Raleigh, Cat 1 in Raleigh Cat 3 at landfall) Ophelia (Morehead City, Cat 1) Dennis (Nags Head, Cat 2) Florence (Jacksonville, Cat 1 with strong Cat 2 gusts. Not technically eyewall but the wind field was incredibly broad) In every one of these besides Arthur, family experienced significant property damage and in all except Dorian, we were left without power for many days. Damage included partial roof loss- Dennis, Florence Water Damage from wind/rain- Florence, Dorian, Dennis, Fran, Ophelia, Alex Tree Damage/lost trees- Fran, Dorian, Ophelia Lost Dock- Florence, Dennis, Ophelia Mathew, Floyd, Isabel, Irene, Bertha also all hit family property causing damage, but I did not ride out those storms in the impact zone as the others. I have experience numerous TS and former hurricane impacts. Michael was incredibly damaging at our family farms and we were without power multiple days even though it hit the gulf, for instance. NC may not get powerful hurricanes, but if you live or own property on the coast, you have weathered more storms in recent years than any other spot in the country. My point for all this- I am obsessed with hurricanes, even though my life is rooted in the middle of a hurricane hotspot. Almost every year we take some level of damage. We have had taken 100’s of thousands of $$$ of property loss and years of repairs from these storms. I’ve held onto the corner of our roof to keep it from flying off while we made repairs in the middle of a storm (Dennis). That being said, it’s a blessing I have gotten to experience the above storms. Each one is a special memory that I physically got to experience that raw power first hand. Was I happy for the damage? Absolutely not. I hope no one has to deal with storm damage. It sucks. Florence’s rain and wind forced water into every nook and cranny it could fit. Water damage is nefarious and can take years, and has taken years, to remedy. But was the roar of the wind, the power and ferocity of the gusts, the sounds of breaking, crashing, roaring and the buildup worth it? Absolutely. I don’t wish natural disaster on anyone, but it’s something you live with in hurricane areas. No amount of morality is going to wish these storms away, you can only prepare. That argument is absolutely absurd to me. Yes, I enjoyed every hurricane experience, even the damaging ones. There are so many positives too from hurricanes. After Fran, my neighborhood banded together, sharing food, ice chainsaws, batteries and anything else you needed as we were literally stranded for 3-4 days and without power almost 2 weeks. Those days were some of our best memories, despite the destruction around us. If you’ve ever been in one of those storm aftermath situations, you know what I’m talking about. Hurricanes and their destruction are a way of life here, and many other costal areas. As a weather nerd, no one posting on here can’t say they wouldn’t want to experience the power of one firsthand. Watching videos is absolutely nothing compared to 1 minute of actual hurricane force wind and the experience it brings. No I don’t want my property wiped off the planet, no I don’t want the damage, and I especially do not want the deaths that comes from these storms, but have I enjoyed my experiences in them? Absolutely. Do I enjoy a storm overhead more than I look looking at radar images of one going OTS? Absolutely. It’s one of those things you cannot control, but that weather weenie inside you always hopes to experience the power of these storms in person, despite knowing the consequences and having experienced them firsthand

A couple weeks ago, making a factual assessment of what the Atlantic looks like today and going forward 10 days would probably have been considered banter. Season is on life support

I should’ve stuck with my original assessment

Guidance has, um, apparently forgotten it’s hurricane season. Takeaways: 1. EC trough will continue to offer protection from anything that forms from the east 2. No MDR season this year. Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Wave breaking continues and it seems guidance has picked up on the hostile conditions. 3. TUTT will continue to hinder development from eastern Caribbean through the middle of the basin 4. Some hints at a more active western Caribbean though few members are showing actual development. I’m really thinking our only threats this year will originate here. Ensemble guidance 3 or 4 days ago, especially EPS, really looked like the proverbial switch had flipped as most members developed 95L, the current lemon, and the following wave. No more. We’re back to the doldrums in peak season. I have officially declared MDR dead. Thinking our season shifts with climo to western Caribbean and GOM but will be slow for next 10 days. We’ve probably surpassed 2013 bc of Earl, but at this point it may be a stretch to get double digit NS numbers. Never count out late September and October in the aforementioned areas though. It only takes one. I just don’t see it yet on any of the guidance this morning