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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    Do not, I repeat do no use any sort of tropical pressure scale to estimate wind of high latitude, post tropical systems. Pressures are lower up north and lower pressures in these regions will not be associated to winds the same way they are for storms that are purely tropical in nature and in lower latitudes. I’m not saying a Cat 1 is off the table but some models have been showing pressures as low as the 950’s and 960’s near any landfall and wind will certainly be nowhere near those levels
  2. NorthHillsWx
    The board is going to go full blown weenie mode by Wednesday
  3. NorthHillsWx
    0.08” yesterday for a 3 day total of 1.86”
  4. NorthHillsWx
    Margot looks like a hurricane this morning. Think we’ll see an update at 11. The activity continues
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Recon is showing signs of a double wind maximum
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Lee keeps trying, but I think a combination of done pesky dry air and possibly some remnant shear keep plaguing the system keeping it in check
  7. NorthHillsWx
    GFS with the Isabel redux
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Looks ready to pop open an eye at any moment
  9. NorthHillsWx
    All I’ll say for those seeking hurricane conditions in NE with these westward shifts is forget about it. Coming further west seems to only happen if the storm avoids capture and slows down allowing HP to build back in somewhat. A storm slowing down over the frigid waters off Massachusetts/Maine will weaken to a Nor Easter gale by the time it makes it to the coast
  10. NorthHillsWx
    1.63” from multiple rounds of storms and showers Saturday
  11. NorthHillsWx
    I WAS THINKING OF THIS. Very similar situation
  12. NorthHillsWx
    Recon shows this a mid range cat 2 at the moment. The storm clearly ingested dry air. That takes time to resolve
  13. NorthHillsWx
    It’s got the “took a huge gulp of ML dry air” look
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Lee dropped 45 kts from 5 am to 11 pm yesterday. From rapid intensification to rapid weakening in a short period
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Picked up 0.15” from yesterday’s afternoon storm
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Inner core then nothing. That’s not a healthy look
  17. NorthHillsWx
    As strong as Lee was last night/early this morning, it had nothing on Jova. Definitely some SW shear at the moment, you can clearly see it impacting the cloud tops to the SW of the storms main convective envelope. We’ll have to see if Lee has a part 2 phase of intensification and also what internal changes occur as to whether a or not the storm peaked earlier today or if we can see a second max
  18. NorthHillsWx
    98.5 today. MAKE IT STOP
  19. NorthHillsWx
    What’a remarkable with this storm is just how well forecast this RI has been
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Based on recon and the fact this thing is still going to town, I think it’s a given we’ve just witnessed the most insane rate of RI in Atlantic history
  21. NorthHillsWx
    It was up there
  22. NorthHillsWx
    I cannot emphasize how crazy I think recon would have been for Jova last evening. I truly think that was one of the higher end of higher end storms in our lives. We’ll never truly know how strong it got but it’s structure was perfect and the pinhole eye was terrifying
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Rarely does the first recon mission into a storm meet expectations like this but holy moly
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Quickest cat 5 in history
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Not sure anyone else caught it but the 18z GFS turns Lee into a blizzard in parts of SE Canada
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