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NorthHillsWx

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  1. NorthHillsWx
    Numerous buoy wind readings over 50 mph. Several reporting stations on land with sustained TS winds already with more reporting gusts to TS force. Pretty long duration event for parts of the sound will really work to drive up water levels.
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Can definitely tell it’s not a fully tropical system when you step outside. A cool north wind blowing today. Very fall feel to the air, not the usual muggy tropical vibe before tropical storms/hurricanes
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Pressure is really plummeting. Down to 996 based on buoy reports
  4. NorthHillsWx
    Gusts of 40-45 look likely for triangle area. These quasi-tropical systems tend to develop a mean NW rain band. Wherever that sets up will exceed expectations with this storm for inland areas. Coast looks locked in for equivalent of a high-end TS. Track this is taking works to drive a lot of surge up the sounds and rivers. Forecast surge values increased to 3-5’ for some rivers and bays on western sides of the sounds.
  5. NorthHillsWx
    It is now. It started further west. It’s a wide non tropical center so it’s going to be tough to pinpoint where the actual center forms when it acquires tropical characteristics
  6. NorthHillsWx
    GFS coming in stronger and further west
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Well, PTC has been designated off the Florida coast. Models have really honed in on the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras as a landfall threat. Models are also indicating this could become fully tropical before landfall, and possibly strengthen to a high-end TS. As a short notice event, folks should probably prepare for the equivalent of a hurricane landfall. The forecast track also could be nudged west, as some models are showing. Areas from the Triangle-east need to pay attention. This is likely to produce higher impacts than Idalia for the state.
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Cape Fear just got NAM’d
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Quite a few members of both EPS and GEFS suites get this below 990 mb before coming ashore. While it’s of non tropical origin and winds will likely be lower as compared to a tropical cyclone at equal pressure, I do not think a storm near hurricane force is off the table. For folks on the coast that’s what I’d prepare for.
  10. NorthHillsWx
    I’m beginning to think this one might become quite interesting for us NC folks
  11. NorthHillsWx
    Not that this will be strong enough to cause that many problems, but I do worry lack of lead up prep time will catch some people off guard especially if it comes in as a high-end TS. We have a 45 boat sitting in an in-water slip in. wanchese NC. We are going to head down tonight to secure it. Thankfully with the full moon a week away tides won’t be too severe but this seems like a 2-4 ft water rise for places in the sound, regardless of tropical classification
  12. NorthHillsWx
    Everything has trended towards a stronger, more tropical system since this time yesterday. Euro has jumped into GFS camp
  13. NorthHillsWx
    We have had at least 1 active storm every day since 8/20. So for a month straight, today, the Atlantic has had an active storm. That’s incredible
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Im sure others saw but 12z GFS brought a borderline hurricane into cape lookout
  15. NorthHillsWx
    I said in 8-10 days it will begin to become more hostile. It still looks that way but in 6-8 days now. That doesn’t apply to the current wave which may develop before modeled shear increases, which looks substantial in MDR
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Very pretty satellite. Obviously not a high end storm but great symmetry, outflow, and large eye
  17. NorthHillsWx
    FINALLY the MDR is showing signs or relaxing. Increasing shear values start in the next 8-10 days and models are mixed on development until then. It’s been a wild ride for an El Niño year and one of the most active MDR seasons in awhile (recency bias). Thankfully the El Niño steering was in place allowing all of the storms to recurve. I think our attention rightfully turns to the NW Caribbean/homegrown scenarios for the rest of the season.
  18. NorthHillsWx
    I think “large area of gales” and term you used “disastrous” was the reason for being weenied. Large gales/mid range tropical storms are impactful, and can be damaging, but disastrous is, ehhh, overkill?
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Ahhhh, the old truck tire
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Lee, Franklin, Idalia, and climo have laid down a protective barrier for the east coast for anything coming from the east the rest of this season.
  21. NorthHillsWx
    It’s kind of an unconventional way (looks like it sucked in dry air vs unusual formation through subsidence) but Nigel definitely appears to be showing an eye this morning. Given the eye size and dry air in northern part of the circulation, RI should be limited. I think cat 3 is the ceiling here
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Getting “the look” this evening
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Can’t wait to see all the videos of 45 mph wind, rough ocean and sea spray tomorrow
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Exactly. Models nailed this. 80+ kts and no rain. That’s definitely the non tropical sting jet
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Recon matches what we all saw on satellite: Lee is losing tropical characteristics quickly. More or less the temp profile of a front and the highest winds are well away from the center. That NW band actually has the first hurricane-force SFMR values seen in the last couple flights
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