NorthHillsWx

Pretty much every model trended better for most on this forum overnight. EURO CMC and ICON all pretty much agree on storm track, leaving GFS on an island there. As was said above, that’s not usually the island you’d want to die on when making a forecast.  

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

One more from the band

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/15J5uQiHNa/

https://www.wral.com/photos-snow-showers-appear-monday-night-in-central-north-carolina/21796426/
 

Pretty good coating around Henderson and into franklin county with the band 

NWS going with likely pops of a wintry mix for my point forecast Friday night. Pretty bullish for them 

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Strongly agree with this. It’s like a double edge sword. Positive tilt and less of a phase thermals can get messed up. Negative tilt and s/w swinging in on backside may make for some colder air on the northwest side but then you also run the risk of the system coming further north and west. 

Go negative tilt just offshore of hatteras 

Think it’s going to track through the piedmont again unfortunately 

ICON found the I-85 line. My god, it’s happening 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Kerr Lake effect?

I changed it to observations page but it’s a very strong looking band on radar. I think NAM actually showed this band for several runs

Friend near Spring Hope reporting a heavy snow burst and a quick coating on everything 

Kinda sucks watching the MA cash in but damn if it might save us. Model temps trending down might be picking up on the deep snow over north of us. This is a very good situation for a classic SE winter storm, notice I didn’t say snowstorm 

NAM was ready to bring the goods! Amped up masterpiece. Cold and 1032 where it needs to be. HOLDDDDDD

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

This thread is hotter than a billy goat in a pepper patch...

Love seeing all the positivity. Hopefully the trends continue!

And it’s not positivity based on one run of the GFS while everything else says no… This feels like the good old days and is looking more and more like a classic SE storm. Little bit of everything and being north of 85 helps. God it’s been awhile

GFS drops the cold hammer for the rest of the run. Haven’t seen that in about 5 days

Even though the GFS track was obviously not good, I’m encouraged by everything from 18z. GFS was the system we want. Just need a better track. Cold was there across the board. Baby steps on Euro. I’ll go ahead and say it here: I think the RDU streak ends with this one. Just gotta figure out if it’s a snowstorm or the typical piedmont mixed bag. Good trends through the day IMO. 

29 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

GEFS pushed snow totals further NW, following OP on showing less snow overall for most in the SE. 

False. Totals increased across most of the state. 

12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM at 84.

Gimme that HP look over KY/OH all day

42 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I wonder why it pulsates between likely snow and likely rain over western NC. Intentional to share mixed thoughts?

Hahahaha that’s great. WPC saying it’s either going to rain or snow, take your pick 

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

In the CMC ensembles we trust! Some major hits in there

Don’t mind H5 on Euro. Colder = Better

I will take my 1.0” of mostly snow and call it a winter. 

Everyone breathe. There’s been no notable trend in models since yesterday other than everything has the storm now and suppression looks extremely unlikely. Pay attention to the lobes of energy moving around the western ridge and the phase with the Baja low. Also watch the antecedent airmass and H5. Really want a stronger HP over the Ohio valley/NE ahead of this system. There’s a good chance nothing resolves today or tomorrow but I expect by tomorrow we will see a trend developing in regards to the phase location and strength. Really hoping this one works out but still not sold given the variables 

Just now, SnowDawg said:

H5 was improved on the GFS, I'll take that and move on to the next runs. Better phase with the northern energy improved the mid-level thermals and made the front end thump last longer. 

^this. I think a better phase/more amped system is needed to pull in cold air for snow. Track will dictate precip type but a full phase/stronger system with correct track looks like the only way we win in this setup

I’d take the Canadian Ice storm at this point. Anything is better than today’s weather. Give me anything frozen

Big improvements on GEFS

Stuck at 35.8. Heavy rain now, rain definitely overachieving here. 0.65 and counting, may make a run at an inch (forecast was 0.25-.50)

Just now, eyewall said:

At this point an hour of snow-covered grass will do it for me. I have significantly lowered my standards just like on Tinder.

Something tells me next winter is our chance