NorthHillsWx

Extended SER looks inevitable. Hope everyone enjoyed the winter weather they received 

Long range looks quite torchy with our good friend the SER

Sad seeing this place die. Was a fun month 

15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We could actually use the rain in most of the western Carolinas. It's been cold and dry

Eastern Carolina’s are solidly in moderate drought with some severe drought areas starting to show 

25.0 this morning. Definitely the last really cold morning of this impressive stretch 

I’ll go out on a limb and say that they probably meant the current pattern bc that would top some of the weenie cancel winter posts on here 

1 hour ago, msuwx said:

Punting on an entire month a week before the month even begins is a bold strategy, Cotton. 

It’s been a fairly successful prediction last 6 years 

Looks to me like our stretch of Fail Februarys will continue

22.1 for the low this morning, almost feels normal now 

Post Tropical Cyclone report from Beryl is out. Winds up to 80 kts in Texas (up from 70) and way down to 80 kts (from 95 operationally) in the Yucatán. Somewhat surprisingly they decreased winds to 120 kts at its landfall in Carriacou. Peak was 145 kts so still cat 5

5 minutes ago, RockyKnob said:

The December 2022 storm was like that for Central NC. No power for 8 days outside Chapel Hill, where we lived on a well (ie, no water). I have a whole house generator now because of that experience. 

I remember waking up to the sound of trees cracking and transformers blowing. That (5 days) and hurricane Fran (8 days) were the longest we were ever without power

This is going under the radar but 74% of NC is in a moderate drought now and given the forecast that is likely to worsen going forward. We are definitely going to need some big systems, rain or snow, at some point before the summer or we are going to be in a bad situation given the dry antecedent conditions 

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Models showing our persistent west coast ridge returning after the first week of Feb. could be a reaction to seeing the MJO head into the null phase but either way - what a winter. It’s been the reverse for years. 

It’s really defied the theory the Arctic needs time to “reload” after a big cold snap. It’s just been cold shot after cold shot since Christmas. Impressive stuff given what was unanimously forecast to be a torch. Sadly it’s been dry but it is the first time since 2017/18 we in Raleigh have had two events in one winter season. Still looking for that big snow but Tuesday nights event was awesome 

11 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If we keep this thick cloud cover I highly doubt we make it to the upper 30’s, or even above freezing. It’s currently 18 with thick clouds. Will be interesting to see how temps play out the rest of the day

We did not keep the clouds. Only made it to 36.1 which was surprising given lack of CAA or meaningful snow cover. Now down to 31. 

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Knowing no other context one would be tempted to say “incoming” if they saw this posted 

Without blocking any storm especially a miller B is going to be timing critical for wintry weather. The HP is going to be transient. For this to work we need the energy out west to eject cleanly to align with the high. We’ve struggled to get our SW to work out this year so that’s a huge concern. Given the wedge look and timing on the backside of the cold push this pattern favors ice but getting the system in quicker and timed with that high is the only way to get any snow from this. I fear we’re tracking an ice storm and don’t see a way around that on the winter weather side of things 

Holy sh*t that’s a monster wedge on the 31st on 12z GFS. 1045 sitting in central PA. Storm is hung up (weird evolution) but that is a STRONG wedge as shown 

I think the FV3 handled this event the best 

Florida and Louisiana currently have a deeper snowpack than most of the midwest including the dakotas and southern Canada. I don’t know how many times I’ll be able to say that in my life 

https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow

If we keep this thick cloud cover I highly doubt we make it to the upper 30’s, or even above freezing. It’s currently 18 with thick clouds. Will be interesting to see how temps play out the rest of the day

10 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Single digits in portions of eastern NC this morning!

Farm in Franklin county got down to 7.9!

Low of 14 this morning! Coldest of the year and coldest since Jan 2022

Already down to 19. Let’s see where we bottom out

I will not get emotionally involved tracking a storm again. I will not get emotionally involved tracking a storm again. I will not get emotionally involved tracking a storm again…..

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS with a big snow/ice storm at Day 10. Several runs in a row showing a winter storm. 

Brick pulled in the last one from 13 days out. We’re in the short range now