NorthHillsWx

Gfs has trended west pretty far last few runs (after it revived the storm)

Icon looks much more suppressed than 12z

We’ve reached the “bet on the the Canadian/Icon over the GFS/EURO” phase of tracking here. In layman’s terms, we’re cooked

CMC would feed families! 

GFS better. It has the storm again. Doesn’t completely trap that Baja low

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Did the Euro take a step towards the GFS in terms of holding back the energy, or is it simply suppressed and so we kind of have three scenarios?

Euro had the storm but was suppressed. EPS actually very good. GFS only model without the storm. GEFS better than Op but ticked down for most

We’ve reached a crossroads with the models. The 21-22nd system is our snow chance. The second system is charging into a stale retreating airmsss and will not work for most outside the mountains. GFS isn’t even suppressed, it hangs the energy back up and doesn’t even have a storm. If that happens, there’s no NW trend to root for, this is DOA. Better hope other models are right because the GFS is going the wrong way in a hurry 

GFS has lost the first storm. Second storm is a mixed bag to rain for most. Joy

GFS doesn’t even show wave 1 this run 

49 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We are 7 days away from this event and yall think the models have this laid out already? Good luck with that. Again and Again we have seen major changes just 2 to 3 days before a storm hits.  Don't get sucked in or out at the long lead time.  

7 days? More like 5 

Coldest morning since Jan 2022 at my house. We’ll see where we bottom out

EDIT: 17.1 was the lowest we got

If I’m in the western Carolinas or Virginia I’m probably starting to sweat this one. If I’m in the Deep South or central/eastern Carolina’s I feel pretty good still. Suppressed I can deal with but a flat lifeless wave isn’t going to work for anyone. We’re at the stage now where trends matter. The trend is definitely a little more flat and suppressed. We’ll see if that stops. Having both the GFS and Euro on outside looking in is not good. EPS has been fairly rock solid though. Today will be interesting 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z EPS snow mean: nothing like operational 

Members:

EPS has been fairly consistent too, unlike the op. 

13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

1. It always trends northwest; 2) I think this one might be ENC’s storm

Those in western NC don’t get burned every single storm by the NW trend. They just go from 2” of modeled snow to 4” of snow on the ground and call it a win while we rain. I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but if the storms where that model is right now I’m damn more Comfortable than one modeled along the coast at this range. IMBY whatever I haven’t seen an inch of snow in 3 years I’m living in the loony bin on this storm 

18 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Actually it’s a fantastic spot

My thoughts.

18z AI trended way south but at least it lost that ridiculous 850 warming and was all snow in the piedmont areas. Honestly not a bad look 

1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

So either I get a foot of snow or it’s going to be sunny.  

Yes

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Am I a psycho for being thankful there were no over amped ones in there?

I was worried about that the last few days but suppression to the point our energy in the SW is severed from the flow was not on my bingo board today. Suppressed is too broad here. There’s no storm. It holds the energy back until the cold press passes. 

5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

P19 please

Definitely shows the whole suite is in the suppression camp 

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If the Op follows along all will be well in the world

Round these parts, picking the model showing the least amount of snow is usually the correct call

GFS losing the storm entirely doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies

GFS is really bad 

GFS insistent we at least get a storm thread for Sunday 

For the life of me I cannot figure out how the AI loses our HP and drives a hard southerly flow at 850 during the storm with that track. I don’t buy it