NorthHillsWx

INCOMING on the 11th

This GFS run is what I’d expect from the pattern. This was not a southern storm but it’s too cold before to avoid ice. Lots of watching to go but I still feel strongly this will be a CAD mixed event. Duration and impact obviously TBD

RDU will pick up 0.10” 1 hour before we otherwise would break the record and that will be it for the year. Don’t get to claim the record and don’t get enough to cover the mulch. Bank on it. 

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z GEFS has less for most areas vs recent runs though still notable amounts N GA and much of Carolinas:

This is a case where a stronger cutter would actually benefit us down the road setting up the 50/50 further west. I’m not sure these southern trends with the first system help us down the road. Might lead to an all or nothing situation with the first storm which we’d like to avoid at all costs

Just now, BooneWX said:

I hope this isn’t a trend but the Euro Ens was much further east with our trough axis mid month. Resembled early Dec more than anything. 

Yep. Not ideal

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 12Z GFS is still another model suggesting a wintry threat to the Gulf coast/deep SE after the initial storm. This is actually from an even later 3rd wave (Jan 11-12) as the 2nd wave dampens out with nothing wintry in the SE. To put this into perspective (the details fwiw since this is way out on days 11-12), these amounts from FL Panhandle to Charleston would be mainly 2-5 times these areas’ normal annual amounts, which are only 0.1-0.5” due to no measurable wintry in most years:

This is the pattern those areas need to score. Actual suppression with true Arctic air

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is close with that overrunning moisture. If it comes over WNC it could lay down a couple inches or snow 

EURO is really close. It wants to smoke someone wherever that overrunning finger sets up. 

It may just be noise but all 3 models went south this run at 12z regarding the first storm 

EURO is a giant hit for middle Virginia but is way way south from 6z

Euro looks like it’s coming in much further south this run with the first system 

The system on the 6th is absolutely critical to whatever comes next bc it becomes our 50/50 low. Until the 6th storm is ironed out it’s going to be impossible to figure out the next one. This is a highly volatile period for models with the second storm being totally dependent on the evolution of the first, so that follow up system just being present is all we can ask for. I’d say this whether it was showing a HECS or a miss to the south

I still like the idea of a CAD system on the 6th. I think something between the EURO and GFS. Don’t think this is a snowstorm unfortunately unless it tracks way south which seems to be an outlier idea at the moment but given the antecedent airmass and HP over NE I doubt the system is all rain 

If we got the 6th system I would be rooting hard for the extreme southern folks and coastal Carolina’s to cash in on the 10th system as my snowpack would be locked in lol

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am not saying it is anywhere near the same scenario but the big on in January 2000 was preceded by a couple of ice events if I remember correctly.

There was a small snow the week before and then an ice event after if my memory serves me. I remember the ice with snow still on the ground 

3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Support has dropped from the EPS and Euro. CMC is showing a rain storm and then not much. Seems like the GFS is on an island. The 06z GFS run basically moved the first storm into Virginia. The second storm is there but cold seems to start retreating right when it hits, so the third storm behind it likely won't have enough cold. However, it is all out into lala land at that point.

I have no idea what you’re looking at. Verbatim the Canadian is a major ice storm and regardless with CAD events you look for the setup before precip maps. If the setup is there models will hone in on the wedge as we get closer. The setup is there

Euro is historically not great at picking up CAD setups at range. It being the outlier is not surprising. I’m beginnning to focus on 1/6 as a legit wintry threat. The H5 setup is there and it is a very cold/dry air mass that moves in the days before. At a minimum this should result in a large area of nuisance ice 

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

Annoying how social media posts snow maps, like its set in stone. 7 to 10 days out, and the social media idiots are posting this nonsense.

This is the worst I’ve ever seen. It gets worse every year 

1/6 is a classic CAD look. If that system stays weaker west of apps, I don’t think that wedge will be scoured out and we wind up with a GFS/CMC solution. This is an ice storm look. Even the GFS is showing a strong wedge and it always underestimates their strength at range 

18z was a better run. Not there yet but better

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I don't think its time to give up hope but its undeniable that the trends have been very poor the past 24-36 hours. The means on all the globals have decreased dramatically. The QPF on the means have decreased dramatically. 

And temps have come WAY up

Winter in the southeast is a comedy 

And the walls start closing in…

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The GFS shows how we can still fail. Cold never gets entrenched and we get lots of cold rain until the full arctic blast then it's cold and dry. 

I’m going to bed and hope and pray I don’t see that run again in morning. Dumpster fire

Energy looks more consolidated coming south on the 0z than 18z for the 10th system 

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS looks like we’re about to be F’d by a Great Lakes low

Yep. Ugly

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Canadian says “incoming”

for the upstate. Goes poof east of there