NorthHillsWx

Cracked 80 again today. Dewpoints between 60-62 have it feeling quite muggy. This might be worse than missing out on snow in winter. I love crisp fall afternoons more than anything and we are burning through the peak under a heat dome 

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 La Niña climo once the tropics get quiet is not kind to especially the SE half of the SE US for rainfall with SE ridge typically pretty dominant and the lack of a strong ST jet. A general BN rainfall pattern is forecasted by the model consensus through December.

12z run of GFS drops 0.00” here through November 15

70% of the state is now included in this weeks drought monitor, including the SW mountains of NC…

81.4 at the moment. More 80s than 40s here this month

0.18” gonna do it for October. Officially the driest month since I’ve lived here, following the wettest. Really worried about the rest of fall/winter in the rainfall department 

Jeezeee the 18z GFS is one of the most ridiculous heat domes I’ve ever seen in November! 80’s through the run and not a single low in the 40’s here! Absolute craziest torch I’ve ever seen modeled in November 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Should I just go ahead and start the Countdown to Winter 2025-2026 thread now?

It’s almost a lock RDU sets the record with our third straight snowless winter! (I’m taking your pessimistic approach this year maybe I’ll reverse jinx it) 

Absolute heinous torch pattern 

32 minutes ago, shaggy said:

You could fit the entire wind field of Oscar inside the eye of this one

That’s gotta be one of the most impressive sat shots we’ve seen in years size, ferocity, and the just meanness of that eye. This is a monster 

Kong-Rey is an absolute beast. My thoughts on the size of this storm are the giant size will make it less likely to weaken significantly before landfall even with terrain impacts 

Would not surprise me to start referencing the drought monitor by the end of the week, which seemed unfathomable after the last 3 months 

No rain on the foreseeable horizon and very warm. Great…

Well the rainless streak is over. 0.18” this morning. Looks like that will be our October total 

It’s legitimately hot this afternoon. 83.5

81.3 and dry as a bone. Looks like tomorrow is our only chance of a measurable rainfall this month. This is going into flash drought territory 

5 hours ago, Occluded Front said:

I am just glad the dry spell we currently have did not occur during the July Aug  with 100 degree days and 70's humidity to deal with. Hopefully a change in the pattern comes about. These model runs from day to day are depressive to say the least.

We picked up just 0.54” in June and had 5 days over 100… It’s been a year for extremes 

5PM went with:

160 mph

926 mb

Cat 5…

Looks Cat 5ish

On 10/23/2024 at 12:42 PM, GaWx said:

 All four seasonal models: Euro, CFS, CANSIPS, and NMME (which overlaps since includes CFS and CDN model(s)) are drier than normal for Nov-Dec. For Jan-Mar, CANSIPS and NMME continue dry but it’s overall more of a mixed bag on Euro/CFS. Dry during La Niña Nov-Mar is common, especially SE half of SE.

 I’m loving the dry for outdoor activities, especially after the very wet mid to late summer, which included for me garage flooding 11” from Debbie.

Loving it but the fall food plots are taking a beating at the farm. Not even enough moisture for dew in mornings 

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Another La Nina gives RDU a real shot at the snowfall futility record of zeroing out 3 years in a row.

El Niño didn’t work either 

18 hours ago, eyewall said:

This stretch of low humidity weather has been enjoyable for sure but it is getting dry again.

 

It looks increasingly likely we will finish with 0.00” in my backyard which would be the driest month (obviously) following the wettest month since I’ve lived at my house. Also, an entire month without rain?!?! I know mountain areas are happy without any additional flooding but I’ve gotta think with all the fuel laying on the ground we will have a substantial wildfire threat if this dry streak continues which there are no indications of it letting up 

There are some very high end videos from Oscar in Cuba but I am not sure of their authenticity. Definitely seems to be some misinformation out there. I firmly believe this was likely a high end 2, low end 3 especially where that eastern eyewall came ashore due to satellite presentation, pinhole eye and radar plus the lighting that was ongoing through landfall suggesting a quickly strengthening system. Very unfortunate we didn’t get recon but this storm was strengthening quickly into landfall in my opinion. Will there be enough evidence with such a small core for the upgrade?

Man this storm screams underestimated. That sat/radar combination at landfall does not look like a cat 1

7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Well, it appears we won't know Oscar's exact strength because recon is done and there is not another one on the way.  The eye will likely move into Cuba without more recon data.

I think some people in the eyewall are going to be surprised 

It even looks like it might be starting to pop an eye