NorthHillsWx

39 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Urban heat island and faulty recording station at RDU

Mines not RDU. I wouldn’t say I’m in the heat island but maybe it plays a part but I’ve had the same station for 6 years. I think a lot of the county has south of the lake has yet to reach freezing, don’t think it’s isolated to RDU

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Per 12Z EPS fwiw, this (Gulf Miller A coming across over FL pen. and then offshore SE US with it cold enough to north) on the Euro op. is as one would expect currently only a very low probability scenario: I not surprisingly count only 3 of 50 members with something fairly close in track during a similar timeframe (members 16 and 34 have sig snow like op while member 32 has only very light snow): so only 6% of members. Member 43 track is inland and produces sig snow but further NW. If I count that it’s 4/8% of members.

 Also, member 34 actually has a second further SE tracking Miller A two days later that gives heavy snow to the SE coast similar to the very rare pre-Christmas Dec 1989 and early Jan 2018 historic heavy coastal snowstorms.

 As this period gets closer we’ll see how the various ensembles trend.
 I think this type of analysis is what was requested by 

@olafminesaw

Thanks as always. Good to see at least a few digital snowstorms showing during the window. Very cold air available which has been a rarity last few years

1 hour ago, yotaman said:

Low of 35 with light frost on roof tops, cars, and open grassy areas.

 

Crazy, you’ve been colder than us twice this week

1 hour ago, yotaman said:

The cold is coming next week.

Not soon enough to keep us from breaking the record

Still hasn’t gotten below 34 here. Also haven’t had a serious frost yet. Couple roof toppers but my tomato and pepper garden is still alive. That’s a record for me, getting summer veggies into thanksgiving week

Canadian has a perfect snowstorm setup incoming 

12z GFS coming in very cold 

If we got 1-2” 3 weeks before Christmas I’d be happy as a clam. 

That December 2-5 timeframe has potential. #1 ingredient is involved: cold

Congrats mountain folks, you all deserved this. 

21 hours ago, eyewall said:

We failed to make it down to freezing in Raleigh so it does look like that record will fall.

34.2 here was the low. Think the clouds got us. Sunday morning will feature another chance at freezing

We picked up 0.26” of rain before the front 

Watching this November blizzard NFL game seems like a good sign 

18z GFS is probably the coldest early December look I can remember in last 7-8 years. Freezer is accurate. Moisture running underneath too. Wow.

All I can say is at least the start of December is not a punt like we’re so used to doing here

5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Ensembles showed cold coming all last season in the long range while the ops showed the Ridge hanging out. We all know which one won. Hopefully we actually see a true winter pattern for the first time since January 2022. 

^^^This. If there’s even a hint of SER on an Ops model it needs to be taken seriously

Ensembles look pretty good first week of December. Ops are showing SER and delayed cold over the mountains. Not a terrible pattern at least. STJ looks active 

On 11/17/2024 at 2:18 PM, yotaman said:

Low of 40. Still haven't been able to crack the 30's yet.

We hit 38.1 the other night which was our lowest temp of season. Not sure we get to freezing before December 

1.38” storm total here. Much, much needed 

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

what did you end up with?

 

It’s still raining lightly but we’re at 1.36”

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Disappointing day in the rainfall department. Just two tenths of an inch with the back edge already approaching. Most models had us with over an inch 

Spoke too early

Disappointing day in the rainfall department. Just two tenths of an inch with the back edge already approaching. Most models had us with over an inch 

Raw outside today. 43 with a brisk wind and rain moving in. Could see 1”+ amounts here today and tonight

Fun seeing some cold air showing up on models in addition to an active storm track.

40.1 here too. No frost. Looks like a decent rain event later this week

Finally some decent rain here in Raleigh 

EDIT: finished with 0.27” which although far from a significant rainfall was our largest total since Helene