NorthHillsWx

12z GFS is a dream run for mountain folks around the 30th

We picked up 0.19” of rain last night after reaching a high of 71

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And the bad thing is, it will take a while to break this pattern down. I can already see us here in Mid- January posting about February weeklies looking cold. 

We don’t need wall to wall cold but getting 3 cold days then needing 3 weeks to refresh is the pattern we’ve been in for 3+ years. 

EPS and GEFS are downright disgusting heading into January. Really no sign of a pattern change on modeling except for a zonal flow and PAC puke to intensify through the end of the year. From today through Jan 1 I bet we see as many 65+ degree days as days with lows below freezing 

39 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Anyone still believe that climate change is not real?

Tarheel is back… seasons over. Might as well hang em up till next thanksgiving 

When RDU breaks the snowless record the main forum is going to explode 

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

When you are closing in on 1100 days since the last measurable snow things are not going to be pretty lol.

It’s absolutely pathetic. 18z GFS barely gets it below freezing for a night into SC. Just a day ago there were low 20’s pre Christmas into the Florida panhandle on some models

13 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Keep the faith

That’s been lost in year a long, long time ago

31 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Is December not going to finish negative departure for RDU?

Probably going to be close. I’d think slightly below is likely still

17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Hopefully the folks over at BamWx are as right as they were last year. I think the worry about a warm canada is overblown, IF and only if the pattern is truly PV driven in January. If not, then yeah it'll take a while to slowly build cold air back in. But a north south stretched lobe of the PV parking itself in the Hudson Bay, funneling air straight off the pole, is not a slow building scenario.

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1868717494594089454?s=46&t=BVabKZBl0JP2qfoqs7LgyQ

What did they predict last year? 

20 minutes ago, eyewall said:

December is cooked.

We now have Columbias climate. 

15 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

I Assume this would be most for this area. . Unless Im missing one. I had just had a first real job a few months before this after college.

 

Jan 16, 2022 was our last 0.25” of ice. So not that long ago but it’s been exceedingly rare. We used to specialize in ice, maybe not full blown ice storms, but most systems following a cold snap would at least start as an hour or two of ice

I remember a bad winter was one where we had 2-3 winter weather advisories for freezing rain with maybe a light snow or snow to rain scenario. I mean not even counting the snow drought, we can’t even get a glaze of ice. That used to happen multiple times a year with CAD

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I think the biggest concern for the rest of the winter is how warm it's looking  in canada

When the air in our source region is running +20 we are effectively screwed

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Relative to the complete disaster that was expected this winter, certainly things are looking somewhat better than expected. 

Agreed, the first half of December was better than expected. Guess that got my hopes up when models appeared to be building on something

I’m 100% confident the torch will verify after our 2-3 day cold snap. We’re in a climate now where warmth wins out 8-9 times out of 10 and models struggle to figure out the type of warmth that exists now. This is a frustration post but I am at a loss. People are like it’s only midway through December but it’ll be January by the time this torch passes. Just a couple days ago we’d trended away from the post Christmas torch to repeated cold shots now it’s legitimately just a few post front cold days then the oven 

Chasing week 5+ weeklies already…

Hello darkness my old friend…

If you like cold weather, the last 24 hours was not the trend you want 

We deserve to break the snow drought this year, but only after every snowless streak record is broken. Give me the record followed immediately by double digits 

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Long range GFS has falsely turned warm in the long range at least twice this month alone. As for the snow chances, the ensembles never budged, shoulda been a dead giveaway there was nothing much there. For now the ridge axis out west just seems too broad, which in turn is pushing our trough too far east. 

I’m not worried about long range but that pre Christmas chance has evaporated with most guidance consolidating LP in the MA. Looking more and more like a cold front then warmup.

36 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yep the long range looks like dog$#!+. 

December is pretty much toast. The odds of another snowless winter are increasing. 

This snow drought is remarkable. Not only has it not snowed, but it hasn’t been close to snowing 

And… it’s gone. Onto January 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

That’s the power of the Aleutian Low/+PNA, the most efficient delivery mechanism of MB anomalies to the deep SE as opposed to New England. That’s why I always prefer an Aleutian Low/+PNA in the means, something we hadn’t had that much of the last few winters til the last 2 weeks.

From a cold air transport perspective that run was a thing of beauty. That would be a crazy north wind with temps crashing. Reminds me of that system a couple years ago around Christmas 

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on)

Just a crazy amount of energy flying around with both systems on the 12z. The 22nd storm trough now goes full negative tilt but the coastal development is strange to say the least. Mega cold plunge behind it incoming

10 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

At least we have something to watch and discuss this year instead of our favorite brand of rye grass.  

Lol. I will point out GEFS ensembles do not have the storm at all. Snow mean hasn’t ticked up at all even with a few Op runs showing it. Still seems like a pipe dream at this point but there’s a chance