NorthHillsWx

Brownsville radar actually shows a very strong circulation embedded out there. Not sure that’s the one NHC is tracking, looks like multiple centers in a gyre 

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per this Francine is about to be designated:

AL, 06, 2024090912, , BEST, 0, 227N, 947W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 100, 140, 140, 1008, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FRANCINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

For what it’s worth at range banding features appear to be increasingly evident on Brownsville radar 

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Not your typical  hurricane!

This is an absolutely insane look for early September but ventilation to the NE won’t be a problem lol

Convectively this system is impressive. Instability and moisture are not inhibiting factors for development today 

These jet-enhanced storms are usually reserved for later in the season, especially in the GOM. But goes to show the anomalously strong trough over the east coast. Freeze warnings in Virginia tonight! As for the storm itself, I could see one of two outcomes. A strong half-a-cane due to positive trough interaction or a sheared storm that never gets its act together. Don’t think this one’s going to be eye candy regardless of final intensity. Really reminds me of Nicholas from a couple years ago. Another interesting thing is how quickly models turn this thing into a sprawling post-tropical system after landfall. It’s possible this storm could have some non-tropical features as it approaches the coast and interacts with said trough. Really going to be an interesting evolution and I think it’s going to be very much up in the air 24 hours from now. My gut tells me this maxes out 80-90 mph and we see our third gulf storm landfall of the exact same intensity this season. One thing to watch as this organizes is whether or not it can develop a small core or if it stays broad. Broad in this case where jet interactions will ultimately dictate final intensity will surely mean this struggles to reach H Intensity. A tight core will have a much better shot, despite the shear likely to inhibit it’s appearance 

GFS is screaming a hurricane Nicholas redux with the BOC wave/trough interaction 

All 5 of our areas of interest appear to have failed lol. Only chance is the BOC system currently going over the Yucatán. Even that looks to face a hostile upper level environment once over water though there is some support from models for a weak system. 

I’d say the models are starting to wake up

Snow showing up on models near the Great Lakes is pretty indicative of lessening hurricane chances north of Florida. Major east coast trough looks well established for the next 2-3 weeks. I’m, once again, not saying the east coast won’t have a storm, but given that look the odds would seem to be slim 

While tropical activity may (and will) pick up in the MDR towards mid month, models showing a very persistent signal for an east coast trough means an east coast landfall seems increasingly unlikely this season. The later you get into September and October the odds of a land falling east coast system really start to decline. Not saying it can’t happen, but odds definitely decrease regardless of overall Atlantic activity 

3.21” 2-day total. Wetness reigns supreme in the yard once again 

12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2.20” and counting

EDIT: pushing 3” now with steady moderate/heavy rain 

2.94” with additional rain falling this morning. Some places inside the beltline show 5-6” since yesterday on radar scope 

I said September 2 was when I was pressing the bust button for the hyperactive season, and here we are. 

2.20” and counting

EDIT: pushing 3” now with steady moderate/heavy rain 

1 inch and counting. Another heavy thunderstorm 

If you’d told me my MTD for August would be 11.30” but it didn’t rain a drop from August 9-30 I’d probably have to doubt that total was achievable but that is what we got! We had 3 rain events (though Debby was multi-day) that resulted in 11.30”. Talk about maximizing the events given to you! 

5 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I was just looking at the radar and thinking about you.  Looks like a slow mover as well.  Send some rain over to Wilson please.

We’re over 2”

EDIT: 2.41” storm total. Power still out

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

No hail here. How big?

Dime sized. Maybe a few bigger. I’d grabbed a couple to tell if I hadn’t been too scared of getting struck. My street is without power, believe lighting hit the line in front of my house

This has gotta be one of the worst storms since I’ve lived here. Scary lightning, power out, big hail 

Also- looks like Josh scored at least part of the eye. Given the layout of that coastline and variable forecast that’s a pretty impressive score for him

Though the storm degraded significantly before landfall, it still had a ferocious NE eyewall that unfortunately hit/is hitting a large swath of coastline. No doubt a large area seeing 100+ mph gusts. 

Beryl kinda feels like a couple seasons ago but a populated island took a direct hit from a 155 mph monster in July. I wonder how the recovery is going down there, those islands were leveled. Of course the news stopped caring the next day as it set its sites further west

30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

50 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Due likely to upwelling and westerly shear, Shanshan is a shell of its former self. Massive flooding impacts likely, but this will be a cat 1, minimal cat 2 landfall. It’s so hard to get a high end landfall in mainland Japan. As for flooding, this could be catastrophic given the topography of that area and the slow movement of the system. I do not want to mitigate the impact by stating the LF intensity will be significantly lower than feared 

I'm not convinced that westerly shear is the culprit for weakening here. I think the problem a TC experiences in its current location is downsloping off of Kyushu's mountainous terrain. About 12 hours ago, there was a pass that showed significant deformation in the eyewall and a replacement cycle in progress. Then, the entire western band disintegrated as the northern circulation moved over the greater Kyushu landmass. If you watch satellite and radar animation through the same timeframe, it's rather neat to see the landmass of Kyushu having effects on Shanshan's structure. I agree we're looking at a Cat 1-2 in windspeeds, most likely. But in hindsight, this is a massive typhoon and large circulation. A dangerous situation is unfolding if it continues to crawl at a slow pace through landfall and progresses slowly over the Kagoshima prefecture. Precipitation amounts may lead to a historical event, unfortunately.

That theory could definitely hold weight, we see that all the time with storms that approach high elevation areas in the pacific. However this storm has been dealing with westerly shear to varying degrees for some days now, even when it was at its peak, and it seemed that once the central convection began to wane, likely due to upwelling and not getting the same interaction with ULL including the difluent flow over top and ventilation, the shear was able to really rip the western eyewall apart quickly. I’m not sure what the cause is but modeling consistently overestimates LF intensity in this region really unlike anywhere else that is frequently impacted by typhoons. I’d say that overall, landmasses in this area probably are not modeled correctly in terms of their impact on impeding cyclonic flow for high intensity storms. This one’s been fun to watch, another storm that spent most of its life in radar range. We’ve been spoiled by these this season 

Due likely to upwelling and westerly shear, Shanshan is a shell of its former self. Massive flooding impacts likely, but this will be a cat 1, minimal cat 2 landfall. It’s so hard to get a high end landfall in mainland Japan. As for flooding, this could be catastrophic given the topography of that area and the slow movement of the system. I do not want to mitigate the impact by stating the LF intensity will be significantly lower than feared 

It’s unbelievable I’m saying this but we could use some rain. The fall food plots are drying out quick and I’m back to watering my yard every day