NorthHillsWx

Though the storm degraded significantly before landfall, it still had a ferocious NE eyewall that unfortunately hit/is hitting a large swath of coastline. No doubt a large area seeing 100+ mph gusts. 

Beryl kinda feels like a couple seasons ago but a populated island took a direct hit from a 155 mph monster in July. I wonder how the recovery is going down there, those islands were leveled. Of course the news stopped caring the next day as it set its sites further west

30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

50 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Due likely to upwelling and westerly shear, Shanshan is a shell of its former self. Massive flooding impacts likely, but this will be a cat 1, minimal cat 2 landfall. It’s so hard to get a high end landfall in mainland Japan. As for flooding, this could be catastrophic given the topography of that area and the slow movement of the system. I do not want to mitigate the impact by stating the LF intensity will be significantly lower than feared 

I'm not convinced that westerly shear is the culprit for weakening here. I think the problem a TC experiences in its current location is downsloping off of Kyushu's mountainous terrain. About 12 hours ago, there was a pass that showed significant deformation in the eyewall and a replacement cycle in progress. Then, the entire western band disintegrated as the northern circulation moved over the greater Kyushu landmass. If you watch satellite and radar animation through the same timeframe, it's rather neat to see the landmass of Kyushu having effects on Shanshan's structure. I agree we're looking at a Cat 1-2 in windspeeds, most likely. But in hindsight, this is a massive typhoon and large circulation. A dangerous situation is unfolding if it continues to crawl at a slow pace through landfall and progresses slowly over the Kagoshima prefecture. Precipitation amounts may lead to a historical event, unfortunately.

That theory could definitely hold weight, we see that all the time with storms that approach high elevation areas in the pacific. However this storm has been dealing with westerly shear to varying degrees for some days now, even when it was at its peak, and it seemed that once the central convection began to wane, likely due to upwelling and not getting the same interaction with ULL including the difluent flow over top and ventilation, the shear was able to really rip the western eyewall apart quickly. I’m not sure what the cause is but modeling consistently overestimates LF intensity in this region really unlike anywhere else that is frequently impacted by typhoons. I’d say that overall, landmasses in this area probably are not modeled correctly in terms of their impact on impeding cyclonic flow for high intensity storms. This one’s been fun to watch, another storm that spent most of its life in radar range. We’ve been spoiled by these this season 

Due likely to upwelling and westerly shear, Shanshan is a shell of its former self. Massive flooding impacts likely, but this will be a cat 1, minimal cat 2 landfall. It’s so hard to get a high end landfall in mainland Japan. As for flooding, this could be catastrophic given the topography of that area and the slow movement of the system. I do not want to mitigate the impact by stating the LF intensity will be significantly lower than feared 

It’s unbelievable I’m saying this but we could use some rain. The fall food plots are drying out quick and I’m back to watering my yard every day

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Huge corrections from all models. Now many models have it slowing down prior to landfall which may give it an opportunity to go through ERC before landfall 

I’m not sure the westward corrections are finished either. It’s already trending west of track today 

Shanshan looks extremely ragged this morning. Not sure this was expected 

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Let’s say that the quality over quantity theme of the season continues though and we end up with something 18/11/5. Is that a bust in your opinion?

Agreed. But there’s a long way to go to reach the 11/5 when we’re at 3/1 on September 2 with nothing on the horizon *if* that happens (per my post). That wasn’t a call or a forecast, just simply saying that’s when I’d have doubt on the crazy pre-season forecasts we were provided 

9 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

Typhoon Shanshan is looking pretty serious for Japan. It’s now forecast to make landfall as a strong Cat 3 or low-end 4 equivalent near Nagoya.

I’ll believe it when I see it. This is a notorious track for a weakening 70-85 kt storm after a week of major hurricane hits on models. Shear and cooler waters ensure this will be weakening into landfall the only question is how much. Still a serious storm, don’t get me wrong, but this won’t be close to cat 4, and I STRONGLY doubt cat 3

When do we press the “bust” button on the hyperactive season? My opinion is September 2. If models are completely dead then, it’s almost impossible to reach 20 storms (15 in the second week of September through the end of the season). This year, with the pre-season forecasts and recency bias, less than 20 named storms would be a bit of a bust, but 15 or less would me a MAJOR bust. It only takes one, but with the most aggressive pre season forecasts EVER, this seems like a year that the term BUST has a wider goal posts than normal 

This weather is incredible.

If we make it 21 days, that will mark the 3rd 3 week stretch without measurable rainfall this year! Talk about inconsistent rains. That’s actually a wild stat 

Now looks highly likely we’ll make it 21 days through the end of the month without measurable rainfall. Last measurable rain here was the 9th. At least we’re guaranteed an above average month!

East and Central Pac on fire. We know what that usually means for our side…

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

- I believe that Oct is the most dangerous month for a direct landfall on the Gulf coast of FL.

Hurricane Michael confirms…

It hasn’t rained at my house since August 9. Not that we need anything after the deluge that week but had to start watering the garden and yard again.

2 hours ago, Silver Meteor said:

Aha! That does make sense. Ophelia came later and was a good one that had much better shape. The eye wall took all afternoon to move through. I have very few images of storms from Wilmington but possibly this one is Charley? I remember clearly the front half was very weak, so weak in fact I was wondering where in the heck is this hurricane? It was the backside right rear that had all the power. (I've no idea what that squiggle is on the image.)

 

That looks like Florence. Charley was pretty much open on S side in the Carolina’s. Your squiggly is probably it’s motion or lack thereof 

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 It didn’t completely unravel. It was no longer a cat 2 but it was still a full fledged cat 1. It became more or less a half-cane as far as convection was concerned but that’s not unusual once a H is N of 30N and was expected per the models.
 
 Bermuda had many gusts well into the 80s. And the storm went on for many hours due to a slowdown as it got there as well as it being large. It is just that Bermuda is thank goodness built like a fortress due to being so storm prone and can withstand winds like that with minimal damage. Even the roofs are normally made out of limestone! I’ve seen them with my own eyes on a vacation there. The majority of trees there can handle high winds relatively well. Wave action is limited by surrounding reefs and storm surges effects are limited due to hilly terrain. I thought there might be significant amounts of flash flooding in low areas inland but I haven’t heard about it. I’m waiting to see final rainfall amounts. The expected amount range has been lowered some from 6-12” to 6-9” fwiw.
 

 A storm with many gusts well into the 80s is going to wreak much more havoc in other places like in the US. And still most of Bermuda lost power.

The day before people were talking about it possibly being a major hurricane and it was pegged at 100 mph by NHC 12 hours before landfall so only seeing gusts into the 80’s is a collapse. I’m not saying it wasn’t impactful but I’ve watched a lot of chaser feeds and videos from the island and it was run of the mill cat 1 stuff. That’s a far cry from NHC forecast of a 105-110 mph storm over the island. 

31 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

How is Fran not retired after ‘96?

It is. And it was the wildest weather event of my life in Raleigh. Not sure we’ll ever see that again in our lifetime here

I haven’t seen anything impressive from anyone on Bermuda. Looks like this thing completely unraveled before landfall 

36 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The 2024 season has been incredibly efficient. The first five named storms have made landfall. I'm not sure I can ever recall that occurring in previous seasons since tracking as a kid.

It has also more than doubled estimated damage losses from last season. 20 storms vs 5. Now that’s an efficiently damaging season thus far 

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

 

Scrambled eggs!!!

Imo the delayed Caribbean development ultimately doomed this one to mediocrity. It didn’t have enough time to mix out dry air while conditions were right and its starting point was too low so it developed into a Cinnabon storm. Unless these are given lots of time they usually go the same route as this one- a broad storm with a hollow core. Now it’s experiencing the SW shear and it’s time to strengthen has ceased. That being said, this will be a solid hit on Bermuda. It won’t take the eye making a rare direct hit to have big impacts with the broad eyewall. And what recon has shown is a large system with a ton of wind energy, so higher elevations will experience prolonged hurricane force winds and waves and surge will be amplified as well. But it was clear that NHC sticking to high end of intensity forecasts on this one was probably not going to pan out. A prolific wave producer for the east coast- I’m currently in nags head and about to hit the water somewhere south of here. Going to be great surfing this afternoon. 

One word summarizes this storm: meh

23 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

It appears that the ENSO neautral phase is lingering and the move to La Nina is slower than forecast.  Would love to have one neutral winter or at least remain neutral until early winter.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

It’s been 924 days since Raleigh’s last accumulating snow