NorthHillsWx

Would not surprise me to start referencing the drought monitor by the end of the week, which seemed unfathomable after the last 3 months 

No rain on the foreseeable horizon and very warm. Great…

Well the rainless streak is over. 0.18” this morning. Looks like that will be our October total 

It’s legitimately hot this afternoon. 83.5

81.3 and dry as a bone. Looks like tomorrow is our only chance of a measurable rainfall this month. This is going into flash drought territory 

5 hours ago, Occluded Front said:

I am just glad the dry spell we currently have did not occur during the July Aug  with 100 degree days and 70's humidity to deal with. Hopefully a change in the pattern comes about. These model runs from day to day are depressive to say the least.

We picked up just 0.54” in June and had 5 days over 100… It’s been a year for extremes 

5PM went with:

160 mph

926 mb

Cat 5…

Looks Cat 5ish

On 10/23/2024 at 12:42 PM, GaWx said:

 All four seasonal models: Euro, CFS, CANSIPS, and NMME (which overlaps since includes CFS and CDN model(s)) are drier than normal for Nov-Dec. For Jan-Mar, CANSIPS and NMME continue dry but it’s overall more of a mixed bag on Euro/CFS. Dry during La Niña Nov-Mar is common, especially SE half of SE.

 I’m loving the dry for outdoor activities, especially after the very wet mid to late summer, which included for me garage flooding 11” from Debbie.

Loving it but the fall food plots are taking a beating at the farm. Not even enough moisture for dew in mornings 

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Another La Nina gives RDU a real shot at the snowfall futility record of zeroing out 3 years in a row.

El Niño didn’t work either 

18 hours ago, eyewall said:

This stretch of low humidity weather has been enjoyable for sure but it is getting dry again.

 

It looks increasingly likely we will finish with 0.00” in my backyard which would be the driest month (obviously) following the wettest month since I’ve lived at my house. Also, an entire month without rain?!?! I know mountain areas are happy without any additional flooding but I’ve gotta think with all the fuel laying on the ground we will have a substantial wildfire threat if this dry streak continues which there are no indications of it letting up 

There are some very high end videos from Oscar in Cuba but I am not sure of their authenticity. Definitely seems to be some misinformation out there. I firmly believe this was likely a high end 2, low end 3 especially where that eastern eyewall came ashore due to satellite presentation, pinhole eye and radar plus the lighting that was ongoing through landfall suggesting a quickly strengthening system. Very unfortunate we didn’t get recon but this storm was strengthening quickly into landfall in my opinion. Will there be enough evidence with such a small core for the upgrade?

Man this storm screams underestimated. That sat/radar combination at landfall does not look like a cat 1

7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Well, it appears we won't know Oscar's exact strength because recon is done and there is not another one on the way.  The eye will likely move into Cuba without more recon data.

I think some people in the eyewall are going to be surprised 

It even looks like it might be starting to pop an eye

I would bet good money with the radar/sat presentation at the moment that Oscar is at least a cat 2 

Oscar is an extremely well-organized micro cane. Eye showing up nicely on radar now. Wish someone had known to chase this, would’ve been incredibly interesting watching that tiny eyewall move through 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240

With Nadine/Oscar both finding land, the amazing amount of landfalls this season continues 

NHC may have had an active hurricane this morning without advisories all while nearing land. Wow 

Belize is lucky Nadine didn’t have more time over water. That storm was going to go beast mode with 24 hours more over water 

What an absolutely strange last few months in rainfall department. 0.54” in June, over 15” in September, and now looking like we’ll finish October without any measurable rainfall. From the wettest month since I’ve lived here to the driest. 

First 30’s of the season! 38.5 with very light frost on rooftops 

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Time to revive this thread now that the mountains had their first snow. As for those east of there in NC I think we zero out for a third consecutive year with the return of a dreaded La Nina.

Almost neutral-weak La Niña might be more helpful than a strong El Niño or string La Nina we’ve become accustomed to last 5 years. Blocking has been excellent late summer-now. I’m sure that collapses but I feel better this year.

Still no rain here this month. Wonder if we make it through October without measurable rainfall 

It looks like a tropical depression to me. It’s been generating organized convection over a tight LLC overnight and into this morning