NorthHillsWx

Going to be interesting to watch where that NW band sets up. Could really bring some nasty weather well inland 

And we have Ophelia. 60 mph, 991 mb. This isn’t going to be far from hurricane intensity at landfall 

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Wonder if folks up here in the Triangle need to prepare for downed trees and power outages. Not sure if it will be that bad up here or not. 

Scattered outages but nothing major. What you’d expect with 40-45 mph winds

39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The 12z GFS took a sizeable jump west and now brings 2-3" of rain to the Triad. It also brings higher (50mph +) gusts to Raleigh 

I think triangle area should be included in the TS warning 

Cape lookout (on land) sustained 40 kts Gusting 48 kts 

23 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Haven’t seen a land reporting station gusting over 30 yet

You’re not looking. Cape lookout, piney island, Beaufort, then pretty much every pier from hatteras north has seen 40+ mph gusts 

35 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Which ones are already at sustained TS conditions? I aint denying it, I am just wondering where to find these stations. Also I posted in another thread but thought I would post here aswell, but maybe the beginning workings of a core? 

Here it is KLTX

Kinda intrigued by the curve look. However, from satellite it seems the circulation is displaced to the south of this, so I am unsure. Thoughts would be appreciated

Onslow Bay outer buoy 

Wilmington Buoy

Frying Pan Tower

Diamond Shoals

Cape Hatteras Buoy

All have seen sustained winds 35-45 kts with some gusts over 55 kts

For Land:

Cape Lookout had a 52 MPH gust with 39 mph sustained wind 

Numerous buoy wind readings over 50 mph. Several reporting stations on land with sustained TS winds already with more reporting gusts to TS force. Pretty long duration event for parts of the sound will really work to drive up water levels. 

Can definitely tell it’s not a fully tropical system when you step outside. A cool north wind blowing today. Very fall feel to the air, not the usual muggy tropical vibe before tropical storms/hurricanes 

Pressure is really plummeting. Down to 996 based on buoy reports

Gusts of 40-45 look likely for triangle area. These quasi-tropical systems tend to develop a mean NW rain band. Wherever that sets up will exceed expectations with this storm for inland areas. Coast looks locked in for equivalent of a high-end TS. Track this is taking works to drive a lot of surge up the sounds and rivers. Forecast surge values increased to 3-5’ for some rivers and bays on western sides of the sounds.

15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s literally right over where it was before.

It is now. It started further west. It’s a wide non tropical center so it’s going to be tough to pinpoint where the actual center forms when it acquires tropical characteristics 

GFS coming in stronger and further west

Well, PTC has been designated off the Florida coast. Models have really honed in on the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras as a landfall threat. Models are also indicating this could become fully tropical before landfall, and possibly strengthen to a high-end TS. As a short notice event, folks should probably prepare for the equivalent of a hurricane landfall. The forecast track also could be nudged west, as some models are showing. Areas from the Triangle-east need to pay attention. This is likely to produce higher impacts than Idalia for the state.

Cape Fear just got NAM’d

Quite a few members of both EPS and GEFS suites get this below 990 mb before coming ashore. While it’s of non tropical origin and winds will likely be lower as compared to a tropical cyclone at equal pressure, I do not think a storm near hurricane force is off the table. For folks on the coast that’s what I’d prepare for. 

I’m beginning to think this one might become quite interesting for us NC folks

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah you could tell yesterday that the trend was upward. Once a low develops, it starts to intensify fairly quickly for how little time it has over water. I still think subtropical, but honesty if those model depictions verify it looks like it could become tropical right before landfall. 

 

Not that this will be strong enough to cause that many problems, but I do worry lack of lead up prep time will catch some people off guard especially if it comes in as a high-end TS. We have a 45 boat sitting in an in-water slip in. wanchese NC. We are going to head down tonight to secure it. Thankfully with the full moon a week away tides won’t be too severe but this seems like a 2-4 ft water rise for places in the sound, regardless of tropical classification 

Everything has trended towards a stronger, more tropical system since this time yesterday. Euro has jumped into GFS camp 

We have had at least 1 active storm every day since 8/20. So for a month straight, today, the Atlantic has had an active storm. That’s incredible 

Im sure others saw but 12z GFS brought a borderline hurricane into cape lookout

54 minutes ago, Normandy said:

My point is this.  My man said on 9/19 that the MDR is relaxing and implying that the MDR is shutting down.  Models all show a very active MDR the next 8-10 days.  This same line if thinking was used to assume the last four weeks would not happen when all seasonal models said it would.  If modeling is showing an active MDR why imply El Niño is going to hamper it when there has been zero evidence of traditional El Niño impacts to hurricane development this year?
 

 You are right climo does begin to shut down the MDR but that goes without saying.  it’ll be interesting the studies done on this season

I said in 8-10 days it will begin to become more hostile. It still looks that way but in 6-8 days now. That doesn’t apply to the current wave which may develop before modeled shear increases, which looks substantial in MDR

Very pretty satellite. Obviously not a high end storm but great symmetry, outflow, and large eye 

FINALLY the MDR is showing signs or relaxing. Increasing shear values start in the next 8-10 days and models are mixed on development until then. It’s been a wild ride for an El Niño year and one of the most active MDR seasons in awhile (recency bias). Thankfully the El Niño steering was in place allowing all of the storms to recurve. I think our attention rightfully turns to the NW Caribbean/homegrown scenarios for the rest of the season.

9 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Further organization=stronger system which is a huge unlikely hypothetical.

That's def a larger area of gale force winds than your usual TC. Think Nicole last year.

EDIT: For the record I think the realistic ceiling is a mid-strong tropical storm. I don't see a problem with what I said and don't understand the weenie emotes. I am just pointing out it's gonna have a big wind field. 

I think “large area of gales” and term you used “disastrous” was the reason for being weenied. Large gales/mid range tropical storms are impactful, and can be damaging, but disastrous is, ehhh, overkill?