NorthHillsWx

So tonight, after having just the FV3 giving my area snow this morning, the GFS, EURO, ICON, NAM, and FV3 all have snow here. That’s a pretty significant cross model shift at least here. Keep in mind we’re not talking big amounts. At this point 1/2” seems like a win. I’m not expecting a big storm by any means. By 1” is certainly back on the table 

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Still have time for it to be an inch or so. Better than nothing at all.

An inch would be epic to me at this point

I love this place.

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

lol it snows in Boone this run

I love the GFS so very much. The definition of consistency 

GFS gets 0.05-0.10” all the way to the NW triad this run. Keep in mind 0.15” probably gets you an inch in these temps. Really not a huge adjustment needed to get impactful snows across the piedmont if these trends continue 

Just now, cbmclean said:

DON'T GET SUCKED BACK IN!! They're just toying with us.

Honestly I may log off again bc since I left pretty much everything trended this direction 

MAYBE we gave up just a little early….

GFS gonna push the precip way NW from previous runs I believe 

I kinda laid off models for a little while but looking at this afternoons data I’d feel much better about accumulations in eastern NC than yesterday! Very positive trends there

26 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Maybe if the NW trend on the NAM, Euro and GFS is correct I might get to seem some snow fall at least.

ICON too. Not NW but more neutral 

39 minutes ago, Wolfpack25 said:

I don't know if this means anything but it is about 4 or 5 degrees warmer here in SE NC today then was forecast yesterday.  

Same here! We were forecast to be a high of 32 but we are currently knocking on 40!

9 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

RDU east will like the 18z NAM

NAM to RDU folks “You will take your flurries and you will like them!” 
 

Pretty big jump on most guidance. Don’t think this gets the triangle back into the game but it might be good for eastern NC peeps. 

Well above our forecast high of 32. Currently 36.3

Made it up to 39.2. Has since fallen a little bit so that may have been our max. Exceeding guidance/forecast by 7 decrees is significant!

GFS run was interesting. Whole system well NW and more of a neutral tilt 

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Only need about 400 hundred more model cycles of this NW trend and Central NC will be back in the game!!  Icon and FV3 starting an unstoppable trend going from .001 qpf to .01 qpf.

Central NC is and has been cooked for a couple days now unless your hope is Pity flakes or a dusting 

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

I’ve never seen anything like this with the models. I mean it’s preposterous.

Compare the FV3 to the NAM. It’s freaking comical 

lol the NAM doesn’t even drop any precip in Charleston 

New Orleans gets clobbered on HRRR

5 minutes ago, suzook said:

Going down to 16 tonight, 18 tomorrow night and 13 Tuesday night. I don't know what people are talking about it not being cold. Maybe the coast is gonna be warmer than modeled?

It’s very cold but not extreme. Tuesday has moved from a high of 26 to 32 here and lowest temp is 16 which is about 1 degree colder than lowest we got last cold snap Friday morning 

5 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

thickness of the HP... reason it isnt as cold is because of the fact Hudson Bay is not completely iced over so it had a chance to moderate a bit but the thickness is still there

That and it’s not just suppression. It’s just a flat wave. It has no chance to go up the coast 

The other thing that’s annoying about this is it isn’t even crazy cold anymore. Mid 20s and lower teens been replaced with 30s and mid to upper teens. As in almost the same as our last cold blast. Like if you’re going to suppress our storm to Florida at least give us something interesting 

At this point, go big or go home. Can’t buy an inch of snow might as well shoot for 15 

3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The euro/gfs both are showing some signals of a large split flow stj low 10 days from now. This is a big dog ice/snow look . First one I've seen in the extended that gets me interested (1st real big dog look this year). Worth mentioning since both the gfs and ec show it.

Birth of an apps runner

18 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Both euro and eps shifted NW. I’m surprised folks here have given up unless I’m the only one in southeast wake or east of that.
Still going to be some pretty snow falling and might surprise some folks.


.

Can you post 

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

Southern GA and Northern Florida still looking like a disaster for ice.

This might be legit too. Low level temps and flow really look like an ice setup