NorthHillsWx

Everyone here is just looking for a bona fide red meat major LF. Also- the entire east coast is in a significant MH drought that many thought might end this year. 20 years is pretty shocking considering all the majors we have had in the gulf during that period. 3 continental US hurricane hits is definitely not a slow season in that regard 

Finally getting into heavier rainfall rates here now but doubt it will matter from flood perspective. Been moderate most of day. 1.15” and going up. Still 64 degrees. Been unbelievably chilly for September with the gusty NE wind. Wish this was January sheesh 

Steady moderate rain. Temps staying between 64-66 all day. 0.55” in the bucket so far. Wind not as gusty as earlier but a raw feel nonetheless for September. Nothing tropical about this system that’s for sure!

Very strong winds in Wilmington area. Lots of 60+ mph gusts in that heavy convection. I’d expect some fairly widespread outages in that area

64 degrees with a stiff NE wind and light rain. Not a tropical system at all

Johnny Mercer Pier sustained 40 kts gusting 48 kts

The reason this isn’t sub tropical is it doesn’t have a center. Look at radar and look at wind obs. It’s an elongated oblong area of a wind shift, not a COC. Subtropical storms have a defined COC, this doesn’t 

Fall is in the air. Almost chilly with the blustery winds this morning. We picked up 0.08” from a shower yesterday 

This is just a nor Easter

One word for this: Meh

2.64” here

35 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I saw 2 forecasts for my area. One on the weather channel which called for a 90% chance of thunderstorms this morning and 1 to 2 inches and the other from NOAA which called for a 30% chance. Weather channel was spot on and so far we have had .95".

Weather channel was only 40% here yesterday but objectively they did raise it to 80% last night when NOAA was still showing 30%. We had north of 2.2 last time I checked and that was while it was still raining steady so I’d assume more. Another round of heavy storms moving in shortly 

RAH updated discussion this morning goes into good detail about how models missed today’s rainfall event. Expected totals have gone from <.10 to .10-.20 to now 2-3” with isolated higher amounts over the last 3 discussions. Pretty significant rainfall event ongoing with almost nothing in the forecast as recently as early this morning. Flood advisory now in effect too, we’re going to push 2” after this heavy band moves through. Pouring now

Our stream of land falling named systems may continue. TD7 looks like it has a chance to steal a name this morning but that’s not a certainty any more, and it looks increasingly hostile ahead of it. One word sums up the Atlantic over the next week: Meh

My 30% chance of rain is turning into a downpour this morning. Might break an inch 

1.5” and pouring. What a bust today by models!!

This storm must be drawing from upper level jet energy bc holy moly it went “poof” on satellite 

I remember when every gulf system weakened into landfall and the conversations on here were the opposite… Pretty crazy run of last second intensifying storms. This might have been a product of perfect timing with a convective burst more so than large scale influences but definitely getting hairy videos all over social media now. This one will verify cat 2 on land 

This definitely looks cat 2

https://x.com/davis_wx/status/1833988239671062551?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

It looks like the storm is making a jog east as it interacts with land. Might bring hurricane conditions to New Orleans 

Eyewall is moving onshore in the marshes now. Nothing crazy from chasers yet but I’d expect hurricane conditions within next 45 min for those near the coast 

Keep in mind these oil rig observations are taken in some cases a couple hundred feet above the water. These will be substantially higher than what is observed on land. I can see some mixing down in gusts in the strongest convection

Looks like this is going to be ashore ahead of schedule 

Definitely a potent eyewall, what one would expect for a mid-upper tier cat 1. Of all the land-impacting storms of recent- this one has followed the script almost perfectly with very few forecast surprises both from track or intensity. Kind of refreshing to have an “easy” forecast for once

93L looks like it’s going to develop. It has the look. Lots of rotation evident as soon as it came off the African coast and it’s currently maintaining deep convection.

Im intrigued but the tropical-ish thing forecast to spin up off the southeast coast along the boundary. While this likely won’t get very strong and might not be purely tropical, trough axis could cause this to be a prolific rain maker in the Carolina’s. Might be more of a nor Easter but definitely has consistent model support

Recon doesn’t support 80 kts. Might be leveling off. From here, oceanic heat decreases while shear increases. As someone noted, these jet enhanced storms tend to have a strong SE quadrant as it’s in line with the enhancement, very evident here