NorthHillsWx

We’re now down to 34.5 with right around 1/2” of rainfall. If only this was snow 

13 minutes ago, jburns said:

Yeah boy.  That’s less than 40 model runs.  Each.  What could go wrong.

I mean just from a weather discussion standpoint. Absolutely not banking on a storm but we get 3 months a year to talk winter weather and actually have a favorable pattern with storms showing up and no one wants to talk lol. 8 days out on GFS

I’ve been watching this one from afar, but GFS for the win on this system 

Congrats from the southerners. Looks like a hell of an event between DC and Fredericksburg. Wouldn’t be shocked to see some 15” totals if that banding keeps up overnight. DC looks locked in for a very solid snowfall 

We’ve actually continued to fall through the day. Down to 35.7 after a midnight high of 38.8

If only this was south DC, they are getting absolutely blasted tonight. Some areas will see 12-15” I believe 

One wild thing about that run is it keeps RDU below freezing from the 19th-22nd. I know a lot of that is projected snowpack but still, this is Barney cold for late February 

Im shocked more people aren’t on here. We’re inside 10 days and have a great storm signal with substantial cold air

Happy hour GFS is delivering the goods

DC sure looks like it’s going to get raked by that band. Southern suburbs might be the jackpot zone. I used to live in Alexandria, that is probably a good place to be this evening

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Still sitting at 32.5° at my house right now. Waiting to see how far that temperature gets at or below freezing to see how much ice we get tonight. Right now it's just a cold rain with the temperature barely above freezing

That sounds horrible

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s GEFS based AO forecast is even more impressive for 2/15-18 as it suggests a dip to ~-5 is quite possible then! That would be lowest daily AO since 2/10-11/2021! Other Feb sub -5 AOs since 1950 were only these:

-2/10-11/2021 (-5.285 on 2/10) (weak +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/14/2010 (-5.132) (moderate +PNA, MJO moderate 8)

-2/6-7/2010 (-5.205 on 2/6) (strong +PNA, MJO moderate 7)

-2/5-6/1978 (-5.291 on 2/5, lowest Feb AO on record) (strong +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/13-16/1969 (-5.282 on 2/13)(neutral PNA, MJO unknown)

 

At the same time the PNA could be nearing +1:

 

At same time, MJO could be in moderate phase  8:

 

Stop it, I can only get so aroused 

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like the Op, hopefully it’s not skewing it and that’s just indicative of a lot of alignment of individual members!!!

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro for day 9:

kuchera 24 hour snow (fwiw since day 9)

ZR for day 9 (excludes the ZR in NW NC/VA):

I posted before I saw this but that is a coastal bomb

We’re seeing very good agreement for a day 9 storm across models. This should be getting attention on the board

EURO WOULD FEED FAMILIES IN CENTRAL NC!!! Multiple storm threats behind the 20th and Barney cold!

19 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Very strong signal on the 12z GEFS

 

The op run was extremely close 

13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Storm signal is there on the CMC as well for the same time period. 

CMC says I’ll be skiing Virginia powder that weekend 

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z GFS: total ZR through day 10:

-much of this is not til day 9-10 and thus still pretty far out and therefore very highly subject to major changes obviously

-some of this over especially NW NC, far N NC, and in VA is from earlier storms….see 2nd image:

 

This 2nd image is only for earlier storms. But that still means the first image’s heavy amounts in much of Triad to Charlotte area to upstate SC to NE GA are all from the day 9-10 storm.

 

Sadly that is a classic wedge look for an ice storm. We better hope that we can get the energy to consolidate and eject earlier or this is a likely scenario given the cold coming and well positioned high

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

yep looks like crap for now and probably will shift north into the Mid-Atlantic over time.

Problem all winter has been energy getting hung up too long. If it would just eject this would be a snowstorm. No reason to believe the winter trend will be fixed this time. Way to waste a 1044 mb banana high and active STJ!

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Gets actual cold, holds back energy...story of this winter

Big ice storm incoming 

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS looks like it might be setting up for a colder storm solution on the 20th…

It hangs the energy up in SW. But a 1040+ banana high over the Great Lakes… 

GFS looks like it might be setting up for a colder storm solution on the 20th…

Someone between DC and Richmond is going to get a foot+ from this. That moisture feed goes all the way back to Arkansas. 

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Cherry blossoms in DC going to be blooming late this year it seems

Different late February than what we’ve seen past few years

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Shocked no one posted this yet


.

Most of the forum is buying pre emergent and garden flowers at Lowe’s right now. I think people will trickle back on here in the next couple days