NorthHillsWx

Wow, go back 3 weeks and I’d just like to admit how wrong I was about this season. The Caribbean was sheared, TUTTs were running rampant across the Atlantic, the east coast trough was more dominant than the monsoon trough in western Caribbean, and SAL was killing all African waves shortly after they entered the Atlantic. With ENSO and the promise of El Niño shear becoming an increasing part of the picture, I openly questioned CSUs bullish prediction. How wrong I was. We have entered a hyperactive period in an El Niño year. If you told me the last 10 days of august would feature 6 named storms, 2 majors, and we’d carry that into September I’d laughed at you. But here we are. Lee is going to be a high end hurricane and Margot looks like another storm with major hurricane potential. Just wow for an El Niño year. I admit defeat, I was so very wrong 

Cat 2 incoming at 11:00

Bombs away…

97.9 imby. On the subject of RDU, the airport consistently reports max temp readings 3-4 degrees above what I see. They broke 100 today and we were not particularly close 

EDIT: RDU broke 102 today!

160 mph Cat 5 at 11 pm. 80 kt increase in intensity since this morning. Absolutely nuclear 

I’ll interrupt your regular scheduled programming to tell you to hop over to the EPAC and check out hurricane Jova. One of the most intense bouts of rapid intensification you will see and this thing has likely become a category 5 beast 

Hit 95.7 yesterday. Hotter than a hoochie Coochie today. We’ll likely top that…

As expected, loss estimates from Idalia have come way down. While some early estimates placed damage at nearly 20 billion, estimates have fallen to a more paltry number of 3-5 billion

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/private-market-insured-losses-hurricane-idalia-be-3-5-bln-moodys-rms-2023-09-04/

Textbook look on last images of visible this evening. Cannot wait to see this thing explode in the open ocean. I’d say the odds are probably 90% this thing recurves but it may come close enough to cause impacts beyond large waves

Topped out at 95.7 today. Dry as a bone 

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Actually, the 18z is more of a Hugo hook, just displaced further east vs a comparable Floyd track. Floyd just drove west and turned north around ridge into weakness; no ULL influence. That mid-to-upper ULL over Florida that the GFS is now developing has to be focused upon in the coming week of runs. If potential Lee gets into the northern Leewards, near or north of PR, and drives NW, depending on timing, oh boy. That ULL develops with a New England ridge, it opens up the door for capture and landfall. This could evolve more west depending on how much ridging develops and how well-positioned the steering column plays out. Also that 300-200 hPa upper flow would be dangerous for intensity. But to caution, this is 200+ hrs out. So grain of salt.
 

Isabel was a similar setup to the 18z in terms of ridging though that ridge built in longer driving the storm NW further 

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of it probably is from water. Either freshwater or salt water. It's pretty easy to rack up large losses these days with the price of real estate.

I know I just have friends in Tampa and work for the utility company that covers NC, SC, and Fl. It was extremely underwhelming for us (good thing) but 20 billion is extreme and there didn’t seem to be extreme damage but in areas no one lived. My point I guess is if this is the case a cat 1 hitting Tampa would also be a 20 billion $ disaster 

5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Early estimates of 20 billion in damage, so for those complaining it was t that bad, that makes it a top 15 storm I believe.

Where is the damage? Usually there are picture’s everywhere. Other than a few micro communities and Perry I do not see where this value comes from. In NC where I live there was some flooding down east but nothing you wouldn’t expect from any tropical system. Maybe crop damage jacked it up? I just do not see 20 billion in damage from anything I’ve seen so far 

 Not sure I’ve ever seen a cluster of storms in such a small area. That’s insanity in the Atlantic right now 

0.85” storm total for Idalia, with an additional 0.15” from the storm the evening before. Exactly an inch between the 2

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well the ensemble guidance is split and the hurricane track models to loop it. It probably is a shell of itself if it happens before a trough kicks it.

Likely a convection less low level swirl if it gets left behind. If it’s generating deep convection it’s going to exit stage right 

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Fake major. This was not catastrophic by any measure.

Only bc it slammed a WMA instead of a populated city

Has there ever been a major hurricane that wasn’t retired after a US landfall? This one might be a candidate to avoid retirement based on early returns 

Perry looked like a meat grinder this morning 

https://x.com/icyclone/status/1696922050454028731?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Wind reports seem very underwhelming for a high end cat 3 landfall. I guess part of that could be less populated area it's hitting. I haven't seen anything sustained hurricane wind reports or any gusts of major hurricane force. 

Entirely due to a tiny core of winds (roughly 15 miles diameter of maximum winds with the eroding inner eyewall) and it hitting a WMA instead of a town. Inland gusts rarely reach MH strength even in the worst storms. IDA in particular was able to generate gusts to MH strength well inland but that’s bc the topography of that area is basically an inland sea especially with surge. I have no doubt MH+ winds occurred in a small area near the coast where this thing came ashore. I think we’ll see gusts to 100+ as it starts impacting a few more populated areas and the wind field expands 

6 minutes ago, wendy said:

 

Interesting. I wonder where they were. Maybe those high end velocities didn’t mix down efficiently bc radar showed 130+ mph in the NE eyewall

Radar returns of 60.5 dBZ showing up near Perry!!!! Wow that’s high for a TC

Perry in the center of the NW eyewall 

Just now, MANDA said:

Such an odd radar presentation.   Completely open on southeast side.  That western and northwestern side is a beast.  Perry going to take a hard hit over the next 2 hours.

Look at Tampa radar. I’m not sure it was open on SE side

I think we have landfall