NorthHillsWx

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The GEFS and EPS are almost identical at this range. The specifics will need to be worked out but yea this pattern has serious legs to it. I’d like to see that 50/50 low slightly further west but that’s nitpicking a beautiful setup. Look at that block to the north!

There’s plenty of cold in Canada and it should get displaced. The next few days while we build boats, southern Canada and New England will be building a glacier. We’ve been on a trend this year of having highs to the north but they’re either too weak or not in an optimal position. If we can build that snowpack above us, I think we could make more of these 1030-1035mb HPs benefit us. I don’t think this pattern favors a cutter, it favors a big EC storm. Someone, maybe us, maybe not, is about to get possibly the storm of the year. With as cold as this winter has been, it’s only right that it happens.


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As you mentioned, that’s a big dog setup. I’m not saying we (the southeast) gets a snowstorm but the pattern favors an east coast storm and there will be a lot of cold air north of the track. 

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

The cold was overdone for this timeframe last week. The next wave is probably overdone also. We are running out of time the further south we are.

I never believed this airmass would work. This was a stalled boundary and with the SER orientation it is very hard to get these to seep south. The cold was not overdone north of us. With a 50/50 low, no SER and the Arctic open for business, next week is a totally different animal from a cold air transport perspective. It’s kind of what you’re looking for in terms of getting cold air into the southeast….

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The 500 mb pattern is a thing of beauty during that stretch. 

NAO trends slightly negative around that timeframe so maybe we can get a storm with some blocking. The Arctic air coming is similar to the January airmass we saw. I don’t think cold air availability will be an issue, just storm track. There appears to be a VERY strong signal for a storm around the 20th. And possibly a follow up system later that week. I’m skiing in Massanutten the 20th-23rd so it could be well timed 

10 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thank you!

What’d yall get from the front end thump 

Rain, sleet, and surprisingly big mangled flakes here at the moment. 36.3/35

Cousins in Richmond are reporting SN+ already. 

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Central VA special on this one.  What a moisture feed back to Arkansas!

Someone’s getting 1 foot+

Few pingers here earlier 

I really don’t think we’re (piedmont/upstate) done with winter weather threats yet

Euro also very cold from the 17th on. Bit of a storm signal around the 20th. Snow Might not happen but this is real Arctic cold so that time period has a chance. 

End of the month is looking quite cold 

I don’t think we’re done. Indices and the fact we’ve actually been able to keep cold on this side of the globe point to a cold second half of February. And more moisture, which we lacked in January 

As of right now it looks like northern tier counties in NC along the border will have a chance of a wintry mix before changing to rain. Southern Virginia will have a small area of mix with a sharp cutoff of snowfall. Somewhere just north of the mix line will get a big snow. Kind of a west-east look, not just CAD areas. Could be a significant snowstorm in middle Virginia 

12z guidance appears to be coming in colder across the board 

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Not really concerned about ice. Dew points a few hours before onset are nowhere near what you typically see, even in VA.

Yea starting to think this is either plain rain or snow. Just not really a good high to funnel cold into CAD areas and even if it is freezing rain it’s looking like 31-32 degrees which obviously doesn’t accumulate efficiently 

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

It won't north, but the precip shield must of been expanded more north. Still a solid snow and ice storm for central and southern VA 

DC went from 1” to 7” and the freezing line furthest extent moved from the first tier of northern NC counties back into Virginia. And precip as a whole, not frozen, corrected way north. Pretty significant north swing in my book

6Z GFS went way north 

To be in DC with these runs today…

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

About to be some broken hearts in here

No one is expecting snow. SW Virginia might have a crippling ice storm. 

8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

GFS trending further south once again things shaping up to be ice in some of the typical CAD areas.

Worried for @BornAgain13. That area has been solidly in the bullseye of a major ice event for days, possibly several events

37 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS is a light snow event for Southern VA and then a Major ICE storm

Yea, you’re lights out on that run

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Greensboro has not had above average snowfall/more than 2" of snow in February in ten years 

2014 was the last AN February here too. I think it has snowed in Feb/March twice total since then, both small events 

SER flexes on overnight runs and moves the boundary north and west, dramatically cutting rainfall and laughing at anyone who thought February was still a snow month in the southeast 

RE rainfall- while almost surely overdone, those amounts occur over the course of a week. Given antecedent dry conditions, this would be extremely beneficial. I’m sure some mountain areas (especially deforested areas from Helene) will see flooding, but overall this would be a positive drought busting rain. 

Honestly that storm is more believable than the fake ones that drove this board crazy last three days being there’s actually a realistic cold source