NorthHillsWx

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

yep looks like crap for now and probably will shift north into the Mid-Atlantic over time.

Problem all winter has been energy getting hung up too long. If it would just eject this would be a snowstorm. No reason to believe the winter trend will be fixed this time. Way to waste a 1044 mb banana high and active STJ!

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Gets actual cold, holds back energy...story of this winter

Big ice storm incoming 

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS looks like it might be setting up for a colder storm solution on the 20th…

It hangs the energy up in SW. But a 1040+ banana high over the Great Lakes… 

GFS looks like it might be setting up for a colder storm solution on the 20th…

Someone between DC and Richmond is going to get a foot+ from this. That moisture feed goes all the way back to Arkansas. 

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Cherry blossoms in DC going to be blooming late this year it seems

Different late February than what we’ve seen past few years

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Shocked no one posted this yet


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Most of the forum is buying pre emergent and garden flowers at Lowe’s right now. I think people will trickle back on here in the next couple days

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Cousins in Richmond are reporting SN+ already. 

Reporting 2 inches in 2 hours. That’s a great front end. Radar looks juiced for a few more hours 

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The GEFS and EPS are almost identical at this range. The specifics will need to be worked out but yea this pattern has serious legs to it. I’d like to see that 50/50 low slightly further west but that’s nitpicking a beautiful setup. Look at that block to the north!

There’s plenty of cold in Canada and it should get displaced. The next few days while we build boats, southern Canada and New England will be building a glacier. We’ve been on a trend this year of having highs to the north but they’re either too weak or not in an optimal position. If we can build that snowpack above us, I think we could make more of these 1030-1035mb HPs benefit us. I don’t think this pattern favors a cutter, it favors a big EC storm. Someone, maybe us, maybe not, is about to get possibly the storm of the year. With as cold as this winter has been, it’s only right that it happens.


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As you mentioned, that’s a big dog setup. I’m not saying we (the southeast) gets a snowstorm but the pattern favors an east coast storm and there will be a lot of cold air north of the track. 

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

The cold was overdone for this timeframe last week. The next wave is probably overdone also. We are running out of time the further south we are.

I never believed this airmass would work. This was a stalled boundary and with the SER orientation it is very hard to get these to seep south. The cold was not overdone north of us. With a 50/50 low, no SER and the Arctic open for business, next week is a totally different animal from a cold air transport perspective. It’s kind of what you’re looking for in terms of getting cold air into the southeast….

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The 500 mb pattern is a thing of beauty during that stretch. 

NAO trends slightly negative around that timeframe so maybe we can get a storm with some blocking. The Arctic air coming is similar to the January airmass we saw. I don’t think cold air availability will be an issue, just storm track. There appears to be a VERY strong signal for a storm around the 20th. And possibly a follow up system later that week. I’m skiing in Massanutten the 20th-23rd so it could be well timed 

10 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thank you!

What’d yall get from the front end thump 

Rain, sleet, and surprisingly big mangled flakes here at the moment. 36.3/35

Cousins in Richmond are reporting SN+ already. 

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Central VA special on this one.  What a moisture feed back to Arkansas!

Someone’s getting 1 foot+

Few pingers here earlier 

I really don’t think we’re (piedmont/upstate) done with winter weather threats yet

Euro also very cold from the 17th on. Bit of a storm signal around the 20th. Snow Might not happen but this is real Arctic cold so that time period has a chance. 

End of the month is looking quite cold 

I don’t think we’re done. Indices and the fact we’ve actually been able to keep cold on this side of the globe point to a cold second half of February. And more moisture, which we lacked in January 

As of right now it looks like northern tier counties in NC along the border will have a chance of a wintry mix before changing to rain. Southern Virginia will have a small area of mix with a sharp cutoff of snowfall. Somewhere just north of the mix line will get a big snow. Kind of a west-east look, not just CAD areas. Could be a significant snowstorm in middle Virginia 

12z guidance appears to be coming in colder across the board 

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Not really concerned about ice. Dew points a few hours before onset are nowhere near what you typically see, even in VA.

Yea starting to think this is either plain rain or snow. Just not really a good high to funnel cold into CAD areas and even if it is freezing rain it’s looking like 31-32 degrees which obviously doesn’t accumulate efficiently 

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

It won't north, but the precip shield must of been expanded more north. Still a solid snow and ice storm for central and southern VA 

DC went from 1” to 7” and the freezing line furthest extent moved from the first tier of northern NC counties back into Virginia. And precip as a whole, not frozen, corrected way north. Pretty significant north swing in my book

6Z GFS went way north