NorthHillsWx

Snow showing up on models near the Great Lakes is pretty indicative of lessening hurricane chances north of Florida. Major east coast trough looks well established for the next 2-3 weeks. I’m, once again, not saying the east coast won’t have a storm, but given that look the odds would seem to be slim 

While tropical activity may (and will) pick up in the MDR towards mid month, models showing a very persistent signal for an east coast trough means an east coast landfall seems increasingly unlikely this season. The later you get into September and October the odds of a land falling east coast system really start to decline. Not saying it can’t happen, but odds definitely decrease regardless of overall Atlantic activity 

3.21” 2-day total. Wetness reigns supreme in the yard once again 

12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2.20” and counting

EDIT: pushing 3” now with steady moderate/heavy rain 

2.94” with additional rain falling this morning. Some places inside the beltline show 5-6” since yesterday on radar scope 

I said September 2 was when I was pressing the bust button for the hyperactive season, and here we are. 

2.20” and counting

EDIT: pushing 3” now with steady moderate/heavy rain 

1 inch and counting. Another heavy thunderstorm 

If you’d told me my MTD for August would be 11.30” but it didn’t rain a drop from August 9-30 I’d probably have to doubt that total was achievable but that is what we got! We had 3 rain events (though Debby was multi-day) that resulted in 11.30”. Talk about maximizing the events given to you! 

5 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I was just looking at the radar and thinking about you.  Looks like a slow mover as well.  Send some rain over to Wilson please.

We’re over 2”

EDIT: 2.41” storm total. Power still out

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

No hail here. How big?

Dime sized. Maybe a few bigger. I’d grabbed a couple to tell if I hadn’t been too scared of getting struck. My street is without power, believe lighting hit the line in front of my house

This has gotta be one of the worst storms since I’ve lived here. Scary lightning, power out, big hail 

Also- looks like Josh scored at least part of the eye. Given the layout of that coastline and variable forecast that’s a pretty impressive score for him

Though the storm degraded significantly before landfall, it still had a ferocious NE eyewall that unfortunately hit/is hitting a large swath of coastline. No doubt a large area seeing 100+ mph gusts. 

Beryl kinda feels like a couple seasons ago but a populated island took a direct hit from a 155 mph monster in July. I wonder how the recovery is going down there, those islands were leveled. Of course the news stopped caring the next day as it set its sites further west

30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

50 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Due likely to upwelling and westerly shear, Shanshan is a shell of its former self. Massive flooding impacts likely, but this will be a cat 1, minimal cat 2 landfall. It’s so hard to get a high end landfall in mainland Japan. As for flooding, this could be catastrophic given the topography of that area and the slow movement of the system. I do not want to mitigate the impact by stating the LF intensity will be significantly lower than feared 

I'm not convinced that westerly shear is the culprit for weakening here. I think the problem a TC experiences in its current location is downsloping off of Kyushu's mountainous terrain. About 12 hours ago, there was a pass that showed significant deformation in the eyewall and a replacement cycle in progress. Then, the entire western band disintegrated as the northern circulation moved over the greater Kyushu landmass. If you watch satellite and radar animation through the same timeframe, it's rather neat to see the landmass of Kyushu having effects on Shanshan's structure. I agree we're looking at a Cat 1-2 in windspeeds, most likely. But in hindsight, this is a massive typhoon and large circulation. A dangerous situation is unfolding if it continues to crawl at a slow pace through landfall and progresses slowly over the Kagoshima prefecture. Precipitation amounts may lead to a historical event, unfortunately.

That theory could definitely hold weight, we see that all the time with storms that approach high elevation areas in the pacific. However this storm has been dealing with westerly shear to varying degrees for some days now, even when it was at its peak, and it seemed that once the central convection began to wane, likely due to upwelling and not getting the same interaction with ULL including the difluent flow over top and ventilation, the shear was able to really rip the western eyewall apart quickly. I’m not sure what the cause is but modeling consistently overestimates LF intensity in this region really unlike anywhere else that is frequently impacted by typhoons. I’d say that overall, landmasses in this area probably are not modeled correctly in terms of their impact on impeding cyclonic flow for high intensity storms. This one’s been fun to watch, another storm that spent most of its life in radar range. We’ve been spoiled by these this season 

Due likely to upwelling and westerly shear, Shanshan is a shell of its former self. Massive flooding impacts likely, but this will be a cat 1, minimal cat 2 landfall. It’s so hard to get a high end landfall in mainland Japan. As for flooding, this could be catastrophic given the topography of that area and the slow movement of the system. I do not want to mitigate the impact by stating the LF intensity will be significantly lower than feared 

It’s unbelievable I’m saying this but we could use some rain. The fall food plots are drying out quick and I’m back to watering my yard every day

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Huge corrections from all models. Now many models have it slowing down prior to landfall which may give it an opportunity to go through ERC before landfall 

I’m not sure the westward corrections are finished either. It’s already trending west of track today 

Shanshan looks extremely ragged this morning. Not sure this was expected 

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Let’s say that the quality over quantity theme of the season continues though and we end up with something 18/11/5. Is that a bust in your opinion?

Agreed. But there’s a long way to go to reach the 11/5 when we’re at 3/1 on September 2 with nothing on the horizon *if* that happens (per my post). That wasn’t a call or a forecast, just simply saying that’s when I’d have doubt on the crazy pre-season forecasts we were provided 

9 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

Typhoon Shanshan is looking pretty serious for Japan. It’s now forecast to make landfall as a strong Cat 3 or low-end 4 equivalent near Nagoya.

I’ll believe it when I see it. This is a notorious track for a weakening 70-85 kt storm after a week of major hurricane hits on models. Shear and cooler waters ensure this will be weakening into landfall the only question is how much. Still a serious storm, don’t get me wrong, but this won’t be close to cat 4, and I STRONGLY doubt cat 3

When do we press the “bust” button on the hyperactive season? My opinion is September 2. If models are completely dead then, it’s almost impossible to reach 20 storms (15 in the second week of September through the end of the season). This year, with the pre-season forecasts and recency bias, less than 20 named storms would be a bit of a bust, but 15 or less would me a MAJOR bust. It only takes one, but with the most aggressive pre season forecasts EVER, this seems like a year that the term BUST has a wider goal posts than normal 

This weather is incredible.

If we make it 21 days, that will mark the 3rd 3 week stretch without measurable rainfall this year! Talk about inconsistent rains. That’s actually a wild stat 

Now looks highly likely we’ll make it 21 days through the end of the month without measurable rainfall. Last measurable rain here was the 9th. At least we’re guaranteed an above average month!