NorthHillsWx

Really a hostile environment showing up in northern GOM across modeling. 25-30kts shear and dry air lurking. 

We picked up 0.37” of rain yesterday. Definitely a rainy month. 9.56” 

One word of caution when looking at the GFS and CAG storms is that it is notorious for over estimating development and speed of development. These generally start as broad systems that can take awhile to organize. Looking at various models, a myriad of environments are depicted for the northern gulf including trough interactions, westerly shear, dry air. Not every model paints the most favorable picture for whatever develops and those details are not possible to resolve at this time. Now- that being said these also can be some of our worst storms, hurricane Michael being a prime example. I’d definitely use caution watching these endless GFS runs depicting gulf-filling monsters knowing it’s bias- but certainly it shows the potential. Key is all models show a storm in that timeframe and that is an extremely strong signal that a storm will form. NHC already bumped it up to an orange.  

Something about this gives me the vibe this is “the storm” of the year for the US. Lots of potential next week lots of model watching coming up. 

3 hours ago, jburns said:

That is so sad. 

This is our year! 

9.19” MTD makes 3 straight months here above 9” of rain

9 hours ago, jburns said:

Just for the historical record, when was the last tine you said that about a snowstorm? 

December 2018, before it turned to rain 

I Definitely underestimated the rain today. 3.34” storm total. Though slightly above the 1-3” forecast it was within the higher amounts up to 6” range. And we were out of the higher amounts just south of here. Overall, I’d say a slight overachiever in central NC

GFS brings a cat 2 into Tampa, meaning it’s wrong. Hurricanes don’t hit Tampa 

While not impressive on radar, the showers this morning are extremely efficient rainfall producers. Lots of wrecks on my way to work in garner this morning 

Up to 2.44” here. Maybe a little more to go. 8.29” MTD. Temp has warmed to 73 degrees overnight. Really shows the front that was still attached to our LP system 

There is a very strong signal, as others have mentioned, for something coming out of the western Caribbean and moving north into the gulf in the 7-10 day timeframe. This needs to be watched 

Everyone here is just looking for a bona fide red meat major LF. Also- the entire east coast is in a significant MH drought that many thought might end this year. 20 years is pretty shocking considering all the majors we have had in the gulf during that period. 3 continental US hurricane hits is definitely not a slow season in that regard 

Finally getting into heavier rainfall rates here now but doubt it will matter from flood perspective. Been moderate most of day. 1.15” and going up. Still 64 degrees. Been unbelievably chilly for September with the gusty NE wind. Wish this was January sheesh 

Steady moderate rain. Temps staying between 64-66 all day. 0.55” in the bucket so far. Wind not as gusty as earlier but a raw feel nonetheless for September. Nothing tropical about this system that’s for sure!

Very strong winds in Wilmington area. Lots of 60+ mph gusts in that heavy convection. I’d expect some fairly widespread outages in that area

64 degrees with a stiff NE wind and light rain. Not a tropical system at all

Johnny Mercer Pier sustained 40 kts gusting 48 kts

The reason this isn’t sub tropical is it doesn’t have a center. Look at radar and look at wind obs. It’s an elongated oblong area of a wind shift, not a COC. Subtropical storms have a defined COC, this doesn’t 

Fall is in the air. Almost chilly with the blustery winds this morning. We picked up 0.08” from a shower yesterday 

This is just a nor Easter

One word for this: Meh

2.64” here

35 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I saw 2 forecasts for my area. One on the weather channel which called for a 90% chance of thunderstorms this morning and 1 to 2 inches and the other from NOAA which called for a 30% chance. Weather channel was spot on and so far we have had .95".

Weather channel was only 40% here yesterday but objectively they did raise it to 80% last night when NOAA was still showing 30%. We had north of 2.2 last time I checked and that was while it was still raining steady so I’d assume more. Another round of heavy storms moving in shortly 

RAH updated discussion this morning goes into good detail about how models missed today’s rainfall event. Expected totals have gone from <.10 to .10-.20 to now 2-3” with isolated higher amounts over the last 3 discussions. Pretty significant rainfall event ongoing with almost nothing in the forecast as recently as early this morning. Flood advisory now in effect too, we’re going to push 2” after this heavy band moves through. Pouring now