NorthHillsWx

9 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

The models are showing a more favorable pattern beginning next week and continuing into February, so things seem to be on track for now. If nothing materializes by the end of this month, only then will I start to consider that this winter may be in trouble. 

Yea I agree, I’ve just given up. Patterns and the term favorable don’t mean anything unless we get something and we’ve gone over over half a decade since the last big snow in my area and even that one was mostly washed away by rain that afternoon. We need something to start showing soon or we’ve officially punted till February 

1 minute ago, Tullioz said:

I'm not sure what all of the negativity is about, especially since it's only January 11th. As of now, things are going pretty much as expected for an El Nino winter, with most being back-loaded when it comes to cold and snow.

Two of the biggest winters for snow in my part of NC, 1965–66 and 1986–87 (both El Nino winters), each had snowless Decembers, and the first snows in those winters didn't occur until the middle of January. Despite having no snow until mid-January, the winter of 1965–66 had 37.4" for the season, and 1986–87 ended up with 33.5". Both of those winters also had at least one 12-inch snowstorm.

On January 25–27, 1966, 13" of snow fell, and again, a couple of days later, another 10" fell on the 29th and 30th.

In 1987, 14" fell on January 22nd and 23rd, and again a couple of days later, on January 25th and 26th, another 6" fell.

While I'm not expecting a repeat of either of those winters, they, along with other El Nino winters of the past, make me very optimistic that this winter will end up being a decent one once all is said and done.

We have long range models now and have learned through pain and disappointment that in the south, if it’s showing rain at 384, it gonna rain. If there’s no snowstorm, dont expect a surprise. Models say punt till February so maybe February will save us 

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I expect this place to be full in the coming weeks

It’s hard to need a sanitarium when everyone simply gave up a month ago 

For what it’s worth the GFS/GEFS just want to keep reloading cold past mid month 

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Some of those maps look like snow falling over much of the state but with little to no accumulations. 

It’s bc the evolution as modeled by all of those is not a mode for accumulating snow here. It’s NS energy playing catch up and wringing out limited moisture as the main low deepens too far away. We need more NS interaction but, as mentioned earlier with the orientation of this cold press, that would almost definitely mean rain. For areas outside mountains, NC is out of the game for this system 

43 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

The ICON and Canadian are trending in the right direction for early next week. 

Yes! The two models you want in your corner against the GFS/EURO!

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It would certainly be disappointing to not get anything out of this period

We can’t do anything right. I’ve given up. This is a good pattern and we just cannot time anything up right. 

Cold gets here right as the fire hose shuts off

RDU with a 65 kt gust 

EPS has been ticking in the right direction with that storm. I guess im just glad there’s at least cold air in the vicinity this time

Over 100 kt velocities on radar scope. Thats pretty indicative of a strong tornado 

EDIT: Confirmed large are dangerous tornado. PDS added to warning. I hope folks are taking this one seriously there

Pretty high end velocities showing up SE of Marianna. Debris ball even evident on radar, CC drop for a long time as well

That might be a strong tornado otg near Marianna

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Congrats northern MS and west TN

SER flexing that run!

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looks like the Euro is going to cut again for storm #3

It’s ok. We can still afford to burn 5 more storms in peak climo before I get worried! We’re the south, we rock at getting snowfall!

I think what’s burned us as much as not actually getting snow is the complete lack of anything interesting to track during this extended snow drought. I remember tracking last Decembers storm but it was lost a week out and yes, the cold and wind was interesting, but there wasn’t any snow in the picture for a very long lead up. I feel like growing up here there were many many storms we got nothing out of, but were glued to weather channel and wral because the R/S line was in the general area. We haven’t even had any close calls. January 2022’s storm was the only thing since 2018 where a WSW was even a possibility 3 days out. This forum has devolved into LR pattern analysis and pessimism. Now, we’re in a decent pattern but the pacific is yanking the carpet out time and time again. I just don’t know if it can snow here anymore, especially from a coastal storm. La Niña doesn’t work, El Niño doesn’t work, what does? 

This is beginning to get that desperation feel to it. Cutter after cutter after cutter. There is no way every one of these storms is modeled perfectly but as depicted at 12z, I just don’t think we are capable of winning in the SE anymore. I’ve got no words. 

23 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Looking at the last 24 hours of model runs leads me to believe the next 2-3 weeks are going to be a wild ride.  

Lots of CAD possibilities but we just cannot time any right with a HP for anything substantial per current modeling. 

If I was in the mid Atlantic I’d be pressing the panic button hard as it relates to this weekends system. It has really become a progressive strung out mess. Pretty much everyone outside the mountains/foothills going to struggle with BL issues even up north unless the storm winds up as it looked like it would do past couple days. For us, the can has been kicked to late month 

Lots of rain on GFS 

I know everyone is fixated on the systems this week, but you have to love the long range look. The amped apps runner after the storm on the 7th really helps to set the stage for a real arctic outbreak and with snow cover north of us it really helps that cold air to make it south and east. Also, the niño effect on STJ is going strong through the period. I am extremely confident this forum will have multiple threats mid month and beyond and there are no signs that will be a short period either. So far, LR guidance has been extremely accurate with this pattern. From the flip we are experiencing now, to the brief warmup, then the real show begins. Save this post and bash me later, but I am becoming more and more bullish that the second half of January will bring us our shots.

In the 0Z ICON we trust

12z ensemble trends were in our favor for the long-term. Jan 7-8 should be watched but I just don’t think there’s enough of a cold source for snows outside the mountains, regardless of track. We want the trends 12z took from a synoptic perspective however for the longer range. Suppress the CPAC high and push everything further east. With an active STJ we will score eventually as long as there is a cold source. Doesn’t need to be earth shattering cold either 

The signal for the Jan 7-8 storm is very high however at this point it seems to be a foothills/mountains deal. Beyond that, I am growing very concerned with the ensemble look of building in a ridge in the CPAC. While I think a warmup mid month seemed somewhat likely, it never really gets cold beforehand and now I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take to break that feature down. That was a semi permanent feature last season and we know how that turned out. Hopefully we see ensembles weaken that ridge and allow cold air progression east of the central states or we will be banking on fabulous February. This was the ONE thing I was hoping to avoid this year and hopefully it is transient but we all know those cpac ridges can be tough to dislodge and once established we are usually in a can kicking regime 

GFS has rain up to the Hudson Bay on January 10