NorthHillsWx

It even looks like it might be starting to pop an eye

I would bet good money with the radar/sat presentation at the moment that Oscar is at least a cat 2 

Oscar is an extremely well-organized micro cane. Eye showing up nicely on radar now. Wish someone had known to chase this, would’ve been incredibly interesting watching that tiny eyewall move through 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240

With Nadine/Oscar both finding land, the amazing amount of landfalls this season continues 

NHC may have had an active hurricane this morning without advisories all while nearing land. Wow 

Belize is lucky Nadine didn’t have more time over water. That storm was going to go beast mode with 24 hours more over water 

What an absolutely strange last few months in rainfall department. 0.54” in June, over 15” in September, and now looking like we’ll finish October without any measurable rainfall. From the wettest month since I’ve lived here to the driest. 

First 30’s of the season! 38.5 with very light frost on rooftops 

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Time to revive this thread now that the mountains had their first snow. As for those east of there in NC I think we zero out for a third consecutive year with the return of a dreaded La Nina.

Almost neutral-weak La Niña might be more helpful than a strong El Niño or string La Nina we’ve become accustomed to last 5 years. Blocking has been excellent late summer-now. I’m sure that collapses but I feel better this year.

Still no rain here this month. Wonder if we make it through October without measurable rainfall 

It looks like a tropical depression to me. It’s been generating organized convection over a tight LLC overnight and into this morning 

13 hours ago, yotaman said:

Point taken. Eastern NC needs rain. Better?

After getting 15” last month I’m not going to say we “need rain” here but we’re sitting at 0.0” for the month

Totally disagree with the “surge is already baked in” notion with small storms. With a large storm like Helene, Ike, Katrina, Laura, yes, sure. If it was a large strong hurricane when the storms winds reached shelf waters, landfall intensity matters very little for surge values. There is nothing wrong with over-preparing and I think Florida did an incredible job getting people out of harms way. The majority of the deaths from this storm were from the tornado outbreak which you cannot really prepare for 

IMO the storm did exactly what you’d expect a cat 3 to do. I think some hyperbole was due to the extreme strength of the storm earlier in its life, but that tiny 1 mile eyewall wasn’t going to have any impact on landfall impacts. This is a novel concept, but sometimes a major landfall can be just that, a major landfall and the exact impacts one would expect. Every major isn’t going to be Helene or Katrina, but this was a highly damaging storm and did exactly what a low-end cat 3 should do- 8-12’ surge in eyewall, 100-115 mph gusts just inland. The tornado outbreak, however, was exceptional. This storm likely will be retired due to its historic strength and widespread damage in Florida. So far Florida receives an A+ for hurricane prep for all 3 storms this year. Desantis, love him or hate him, is very effective at managing hurricane impacts in Florida. 

Someone said it earlier, but my god the tornado outbreak over water east of Florida on that loop. Probably some EF3+ waterspouts 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I’m sure it was devastating where the high surge hit and we’ll see that soon unfortunately. “In my experience” I’ve seen around that level of surge and how devastating that is. And it’s not downtown Tampa but still very populated. 

Agreed. It’s a very populated area, just not Tampa populated. Still, from reports south and north, it seems the devastating surge was limited to a small area, we’re just waiting to see how hard that area got hit. It seems strange to downplay 5-8’ surge (like many of the areas weve seen reports from experienced) it just doesn’t seem as severe being those same areas experienced that same surge two weeks ago with Helene. Still a lot of surge 

My post got deleted yesterday (not sure why) but I said thank the lord this things core stayed very small while it was at high intensity and when the wind field expanded it did so mostly on the northern side so offshore winds. This greatly mitigated surge potential. The fear was that after the first ERC this would grow significantly and though it grew, it didn’t really grow that much. It went from tiny to small. That being said, I’m sure there were a few 10’ surge readings, Siesta Key would be my likely ground 0. Still haven’t seen anything from there. That is a devastating surge, it just wasn’t over as broad an area as we feared. As for inland winds, honestly the number of 100+ mph gusts is impressive. Certainly an area with plenty of observation locations but getting 80-90 mph gusts on east coast is super impressive and shows how the jet aided this storm even though the tropical core collapsed. Seeing those extremely strong backside winds almost no rain falling is absolutely a sign this was losing it’s tropical characteristics at landfall and drier air and the collapsing core pulled those winds in and kept them going inland. 
 

Overall, what I’ve seen sounds like intensity was accurate. This was likely verified as a low-end 3. Surge was probably a little less than most majors we’ve seen recently simply bc it had a small core especially in the part that created the surge (southern side). Wind damage is extensive and power outages are extreme. The tornado outbreak was one of the most severe in history for a tropical system. Very damaging major hurricane strike and hoping loss of life was kept to a minimum as Florida is excellent at preparing for these things. 

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We haven't heard from further south-Charlotte Harbor area. If anyone got pounded with surge I'd expect it down there.

Cantore was there. Said it was on par with Helene’s surge at his location 

2 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

Part of the problem is that all the buoys that were near they eye were all out of commission.  :-(

 

 

Closet one was Venice, which looked like this:

 

 

Give that though - one would have thought that Venice would have registered a lot more than 62 mph sustained, given that it was pretty much at the eye wall.   Only thing I can figure is that it's because these are so close to the water or land - the wind levels are lower due to surface friction.  

 

 

Strongest winds were on the north when it made landfall 

Co worker in st Petersburg just replied and said there are branches down and a lot of street flooding but at least at his location not too much damage. They held power until well after it made landfall. Sounds like back half was the worst for them. Conditions Improving at his location 

Finally getting released from Helene storm work. Thoughts and prayers continue for all those affected by this horrific storm. Lots of good out there too with folks helping one another. Awful situation continues in mountains. Hopefully they aren’t forgotten after Milton 

Looks like it’s a go for round 2 of intensification. An interesting thing I’ve noticed on some of the hi res models is the strongest winds appear to transfer to the north and western sides of the system as it approaches Florida (sting jet?). While north of track areas would escape the surge, that’s cat 3+ winds showing on that side of the eye. If it goes slightly south of you, you are by no means safe simply because you avoided what will 100000% be a catastrophic surge on the south side. Heed evacuation orders 

4 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Not great bob

We need to save this for posterity. That’s absolutely absurd

Just now, Retrobuc said:

even though all the models are showing south?

 

False. Plenty go north.

Is there any cool pool left from Helen’s upwelling east of the loop current?