NorthHillsWx

Great 12z runs

There is no reason to be throwing in the towel at all. Means will jump around a lot especially with some of the HECS included as those affect the means disproportionately. However, for those who haven’t seen snow in 3 years it is totally fair to be pessimistic until it snows again. That being said, we don’t need to clog this board with “it’ll never snow again posts” or junk as there is actually great discussion going on from some of the veteran members. A few weeks ago when this place was dead, whatever, but there is an exciting pattern showing and some of the expert posters have been honking the horn for some time. 

20 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

More like congrats Florida

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

If Florida gets 6-8” and we get blanked I quit lol

06z GFS says Congrats @GaWx !!!

12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Oz GFS with a Big Snow Storm on Day 9-10 for Central NC and into VA

I would not include “central” NC in that statement 

14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

New EPS snow mean. 

Starts around the 5th and just adds on nonstop through the end of the run. Getting multiple threats in this window could be huge, since as we all know we fail far more than we succeed.

I’ll take that and run with it any day and twice on Sunday. 

Foothills folks might leave this hobby if 12z came to fruition though 

12z gfs op was its coldest run yet. My god. The gates to the Arctic open and stay that way

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Cold with little snow on the op euro 

Yes but it does have the same storm shown on GFS. Slower to phase. But it’s there

Pretty wild to see both the Euro and GFS showing RDU at 5 or below on the 9-10th although it’s a result of deep snow cover on the GFS and just insane cold on the Euro

06z GFS delivers again on the 8th

That’s about the most sustained cold I’ve ever seen modeled on the GEFS. Source region just reloads and keeps sending it. I’ve been a 3/4 glass empty person and will continue to be until it snows again but that’s a fricking lot of cold modeled on the ensembles 

17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The models are starting to show a quick warmup after the initial cold push and a likely rain storm with the next front around January 6th/7th, 

Wash, rinse, repeat 

It goes without saying, seeing those snow maximums on the ensembles over the water should concern everyone in this upcoming pattern. 

I’m not seeing what others are noting on the ensembles in regards to moisture availability. Everything looks exceptionally dry if you take out the rain from the 2-4th period. So once the cold follows that system there is a very strong signal for it to be very dry. Maybe someone could show me the opposite but I don’t see anything but dry cold following that system 

6 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Anyways the 18z GFS says Merry Christmas,brings the big dog and puts everyone in the freezer late in the run.

I’ll take my 15” of snow followed by 0 degrees and call her a season 

We can kid ourselves all we want with these epic ECMWF And it’s ensemble solutions but all we’re setting ourselves for is bouts of cold rain. Until it snows again I don’t believe it can. No analysis in this but I just have this gut feeling this is going to be a major letdown and in a few weeks we’ll be taking about fabulous February and a strat warning event or some blocking pattern that resulted in snow 32 years ago or a split flow that holds off and happens in April. Anyways I regress, merry Christmas to everyone! 

Last year someone posted the stages of winter snow lovers in the south. That needs to resurface 

We are going to seriously undercut our forecast of 29 tonight. Already 28.2

Maybe a change is coming but I see the can kicking beginning. To me, we can kick is past the first week in Jan now

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Lots are though, including BAM

We’ll see. There are conflicting suites and it’s not locked in at all. GEFS is trending towards the Op. MJO staying in phase 6… I do not like what I’m seeing. Will it be 70s in January like the 18z gfs insists? No. But with all the cold dumping into upper Midwest and a SER entrenched I do not see winter weather chances at all through week 1 of the new year

18z GFS is a clinic of how to establish a semi-permanent SER. Ugly doesn’t even do that run justice

Euro has been terrible last few winters with handling cold in the long range. Honestly I think we continue the pattern of warmups, rain, cold, repeat, but with a bit more frequency of the cold snaps compared to last winter as it does appear more cold will be available on the continent. I do not buy an extended cold period at all 

High of 39 yesterday. Low of 22. My gauge at the farm in Louisburg bottomed out at 13.9! Raleigh is an oven 

26 minutes ago, eyewall said:

They’re out brining roads between here and louisburg. Don’t think they even touched the brine supply last winter. W