NorthHillsWx

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That area Myrtle Beach-Wilmington needs to be vigilant for tornadoes with this band moving through. Lots of areas showing broad rotation and there’s a lot of energy with that band

Moments later: confirmed tornado in Myrtle beach moving NE. Debris signature clear on radar 

That area Myrtle Beach-Wilmington needs to be vigilant for tornadoes with this band moving through. Lots of areas showing broad rotation and there’s a lot of energy with that band

24 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Found this but believe it was mostly sleet.

 

That was a really good storm. Everything stuck and was in mid 20’s and snowing. Stayed cold afterwards. That’s the only bright spot since December 2018 and it was just 3-4” in my area 

This weekends storm has trended way east. Probably saves inland areas from worst winds and severe threat 

One positive trend is this thing has really sped up. What was looking like a long duration event stretching from Sunday to Tuesday is now mostly just Sunday afternoon. Rainfall totals have come down accordingly. I know everyone needs the rain but 3-4” in a short time after last weeks rain would probably cause flash flooding

This is looking like a significant weather event. I’d expect a serious squall line in Florida too 

56 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Happy Hour GFS is way west

At least we don’t have to worry about “what if there was cold air” 

1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Well it's not even astro winter yet and we are only at 35N so my expectations aren't there yet. 

I do get your larger point though

No cold in sight, anywhere, is worse than are usual 'delayed' winter at this point.

Yea I guess to broaden my point: this isn’t even going to produce snow in New England with a perfect track in mid December. For us it’s not shocking but the lack of snow up north with a storm track passing over the “benchmark” is highly, highly anomalous for mid December 

Early next week’s Miller A with a perfect storm track and absolutely no cold air is going to sting. That being said, if that track continues this year eventually we will score

11 hours ago, Benjamn3 said:

Really the best I can tell, the GFS and CMC ensembles aren’t a torch or shorts and flip flops on Xmas. Looks a touch above seasonal. We are kicking the can for some real cold or a shot at snow. However it’s not a shit show, and so much can change 2 weeks out. Fingers crossed. I have a hope things will look better in the coming days. We don’t believe good news, so let’s not believe the mediocre either. Lol

While I will admit there aren’t any really warm days in the LR, it’s freaking above freezing across the entire US outside of mountain areas for days straight in mid-late December across the border. I mean when ND is struggling to get below freezing (not below zero) in late December, we are in major major trouble for a long time

Garner Tornado rates EF-1

It is certainly concerning seeing the consensus towards a prolonged mild pattern for the entire continent. We’ll need to see some signs of cold air building up north to have any hope going into January. Like I said earlier, kicking the can through December isn’t the worst but it becomes an issue if we’re still sniffing for a change in the LR when the calendar flips to January 

Just now, olafminesaw said:

might be a T-shirt kind of Christmas.

Im ok with it as long as we’re seeing some signs of something changing in early Jan. Otherwise, we’re going to be stuck in our can kicking pattern we have been in since December 2018

All indications seem to be pointing to a punt until early January at the earliest for sustained cold and snow chances outside the mountains. MJO and ensemble guidance is ugly. That being said, my brother is reporting about 1/2” of surprise snow from Urbanna Virginia this morning

I wish this was snow but we “jackpotted” with this event. Finished with 4.04” of drought busting rain

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Must be nice.  The I-95 corridor has been absolutely shafted.  Virtually nothing here.

Yea I’ve noticed that. Insane rates here. Just like that we’re over 3” 

This is drought-busting rain. Training over us since 4:00. Over 2”

Confirmed tornado in Garner 

Rotation near garner is starting to look dangerous 

5 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

What part of from Christmas to the 2nd week of January is the 17th to Christmas? Sigh 

Sorry I should’ve elaborated- 17th through the end of the run periods (which happened to be Christmas). I wasn’t questioning your statement I was saying it looks like the entire lower 48 will be AN from the 17th-on using the ensembles. Was simply curious what you saw beyond that. 

15 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

The period from Christmas to the second week of Jan and then again at the end of January to mid Feb have had my attention for a while. I’ve had my fingers crossed that there’s no can kicking coming and it holds firm.  

EPS and GEFS have been pretty consistent in torching from December 17th through Christmas. What are you seeing that shows a flip? 

Our winter is the Iowa offense. Getting our punter out early and often 

20 hours ago, Benjamn3 said:

 My main hope is that it isn’t a torch. All I ask for these days is keep Xmas eve and day chilly. 

Todays weather would’ve worked on Christmas Day 

Rained 0.05” last night 

2.25” with some showers continuing. Much much needed