NorthHillsWx

Rain, sleet, and surprisingly big mangled flakes here at the moment. 36.3/35

Cousins in Richmond are reporting SN+ already. 

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Central VA special on this one.  What a moisture feed back to Arkansas!

Someone’s getting 1 foot+

Few pingers here earlier 

I really don’t think we’re (piedmont/upstate) done with winter weather threats yet

Euro also very cold from the 17th on. Bit of a storm signal around the 20th. Snow Might not happen but this is real Arctic cold so that time period has a chance. 

End of the month is looking quite cold 

I don’t think we’re done. Indices and the fact we’ve actually been able to keep cold on this side of the globe point to a cold second half of February. And more moisture, which we lacked in January 

As of right now it looks like northern tier counties in NC along the border will have a chance of a wintry mix before changing to rain. Southern Virginia will have a small area of mix with a sharp cutoff of snowfall. Somewhere just north of the mix line will get a big snow. Kind of a west-east look, not just CAD areas. Could be a significant snowstorm in middle Virginia 

12z guidance appears to be coming in colder across the board 

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Not really concerned about ice. Dew points a few hours before onset are nowhere near what you typically see, even in VA.

Yea starting to think this is either plain rain or snow. Just not really a good high to funnel cold into CAD areas and even if it is freezing rain it’s looking like 31-32 degrees which obviously doesn’t accumulate efficiently 

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

It won't north, but the precip shield must of been expanded more north. Still a solid snow and ice storm for central and southern VA 

DC went from 1” to 7” and the freezing line furthest extent moved from the first tier of northern NC counties back into Virginia. And precip as a whole, not frozen, corrected way north. Pretty significant north swing in my book

6Z GFS went way north 

To be in DC with these runs today…

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

About to be some broken hearts in here

No one is expecting snow. SW Virginia might have a crippling ice storm. 

8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

GFS trending further south once again things shaping up to be ice in some of the typical CAD areas.

Worried for @BornAgain13. That area has been solidly in the bullseye of a major ice event for days, possibly several events

37 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS is a light snow event for Southern VA and then a Major ICE storm

Yea, you’re lights out on that run

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Greensboro has not had above average snowfall/more than 2" of snow in February in ten years 

2014 was the last AN February here too. I think it has snowed in Feb/March twice total since then, both small events 

SER flexes on overnight runs and moves the boundary north and west, dramatically cutting rainfall and laughing at anyone who thought February was still a snow month in the southeast 

RE rainfall- while almost surely overdone, those amounts occur over the course of a week. Given antecedent dry conditions, this would be extremely beneficial. I’m sure some mountain areas (especially deforested areas from Helene) will see flooding, but overall this would be a positive drought busting rain. 

Honestly that storm is more believable than the fake ones that drove this board crazy last three days being there’s actually a realistic cold source 

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Not a forecasting post but I’m putting this here due to higher traffic and since it is fairly quiet for now:

SE cold lovers like myself should feel fortunate that Jan was as cold as it was as the cold anomaly there was as strong as anywhere in the globe. I’ll reiterate that the Euro Weeklies did a great job forecasting the SE US to have the coldest on the globe.
 

 This shows -2 to -4C (likely mainly -2 to -3C or -3.6 to -5.4F) vs 1951-80 base. To convert to comparison to 1991-2020 base, one can probably add ~1-1.5F making the anomaly ~-4.5 to -7F anomaly for many. One has to wonder when the next cold month will be:

Euro weeklies have been really accurate this winter, as compared to last 

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

If that much snow falls just 60 miles to my north, I'll probably go on a Snow chase that day lol

If you can’t get it, chase it

33 minutes ago, eyewall said:

We know how this goes. Best to write it off at this point.

You might need to go on vacation again, apparently that’s what it takes to get a decent snow here now (kidding)

27 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Whatever happened to the people on here that used to say "the models are underdoing the CAD." Could that be the case this time?

I’m sure they will be underdoing it somewhat but this is a fickle airmass. It’s not established beforehand and the high is sliding with the system. It’s not like we’re leading into this one with an arctic airmass and DPs in single digits