NorthHillsWx

GFS minimal changes

Icon went way west with SLP

I’m not going as far as to say we’ve been NAM’d (because it’s honestly believable given other modeling) but that’s a beautiful run for this entire forum just about

NAM with a hell of a front end thump 

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Finally catching up on the posts and the model runs.... Been real busy today..... Everything is looking great so far. Love the trends! Still going in the right direction!

You’re in a great spot 

A good thing going for us is ensembles have largely been better than op runs from each of the model suites. To me that says there is better potential for this to trend positively for snow lovers than the opposite. Call it a gut feeling, whatever you want, but I think 18z and 0z might improve across the board for snowfall

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That is an incredible ensemble look at this range.

7 minutes ago, scottk said:

As someone who lives in NE SC, it’s great to see that I-95 is being forecasted to retain its magical snow-melting abilities smh

Tough spot to be for winter weather, even in this forum. So that’s saying something 

Historically I’ve used the Ukie for predominantly fodder or entertainment. But I could say the same for the Icon, and I’m willing to hang my hat on that at the moment 

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

I think overall the better models are probably picking up more on the snowpack to the north in the Mid-Atlantic and yeah the Ukie is not great on thermals. Any of these tracks from this morning should break the RDU snowless streak. Honestly for photography purposes snow then ZR can be good if the trees get nice and glassy.

Every 12z model so far has been a warning level event for RDU… 

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

UK looks like mostly rain for NC but somehow the totals are more then the GFS and Canadian. Weird.

It nailed the Raleigh heat island 

Just now, olafminesaw said:

I would focus on track with the UKMET, does funky things with thermals. 

Yea. And track is fine 

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Man, the UK sucks. Wonder what has changed from the good runs overnight and earlier this morning.

Strung out, no rates

Just now, CaryWx said:

Need to be 0c at 925mb don't we

Yes but time and time again I’ve seen that northern edge of freezing rain end up as more sleet and 925 modeled too high, especially if the surface is that cold. There are very few instances that come to mind of freezing rain and 27 in RDU. 

With surface temps in the mid 20’s I’d have to think a lot of that freezing rain modeled would likely be sleet. 1-3” of sleet/snow with a glaze of ice would be acceptable in my neighborhood 

Well the CMC killed the streak of every model trending positively (I know foothills and I-40 folks disagree) but taken at face value it’s a major winter storm for everyone. Just a crippling ice storm for the piedmont. Foothills to SW Virginia get smoked with snow 

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

We just went thru one hell of a sleet and ice storm here the other night. While it’s nice to look at it was a pain in the rear end to clean up before Siberia temperatures came in last night  I love winter weather so I can totally understand where you’re coming from.

When you haven’t seen winter weather in 3 years, you settle for ice storms 

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@BornAgain13 12Z GFS NUKE! @Met1985 @wncsnow also great for you all!

Yes that’s what yall wanted to see I’m sure! Honestly keeping me below 32 with some sort of wintry precip is a win after it showed rain for so long here

EDIT: it’s still inland. Just colder. Baby steps

HMMM… GFS trending to all other models. Let’s freaking go

You can all keep your frost bitten snowy mid Atlantic hands off our central NC snowstorm this weekend please! Now go back to shoveling your driveways and sledding 

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah night favors better accumulation chances for sure. That is a good point.

I actually like a night snow. Actually sticks to the roads and fun to watch in the lights. An excuse to open the good bourbon too. I’d love if it started in daytime and peaked in night but beggars cannot be choosers especially here… 

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just gotta' get that NC batch up here.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010712&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=icon

Nope. It stays here. It’s ours 

Im about to have to log off the models for the day. Not used to positive trends every time I look. Can’t take the kick in the nads I’m sure the GFS will be shortly, vibes too high right now

12z Runs so far:

NAM: slower phase. Weaker HP but somehow colder (guess due to less amped). Big snowstorm for the forum

ICON: Almost carbon copy of its last 2 runs. Cold, very solid snowstorm for most on the forum, especially N Carolina

Come on CMC GFS and Euro!