NorthHillsWx

Just a paltry 0.07” here

On 11/5/2024 at 5:18 PM, StantonParkHoya said:

Euro with some pretty good rains for central NC Thursday morning

We need it. One measurable rainfall in last 37 days

Oh boy. Small eye popping. This things going off right into landfall 

Storm is rapidly strengthening. Said that a few times on here this year 

Looks like we might have a hurricane 

In the last 36 days we have recorded measurable rainfall just once. That is insane 

Yes, structurally this storm is very well developed but given lack of a coherent CDO and some popcorn storms in the western and northern circulation me thinks it is battling some mid level dry air 

Cayman Islands radar should be interesting to watch through the day

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

Latest GFS brings Central NC almost no rain at all from the tropical system 

Interesting the NHC noted a developing eyewall from recon with a minimal TS with a questionable appearance. Not seeing the convective blowup you usually see when NHC notes a formative eyewall. Wonder if that was a transient feature 

14 hours ago, yotaman said:

Unless we have a big pattern change, I don't see a frost or freeze happening to us on the coastal plain this month. We have gone thru November before without a frost and freeze. I really hope we don't this year.

Don’t see it happening here either before thanksgiving week at least. 

RE the KRDU temp obs- I’ve noticed that my readings have been MUCH more in line with RDU since that June heat wave and honestly are probably 1-3 degrees above what the airport’s reading has been as of late! I wonder if the summer drought and peak sun angle heating was the culprit. I still don’t believe RDUs June readings that consistently beat out Fayetteville on a daily basis! It doesn’t make sense to be so high above other regional obs that consistently only to fall in line later in the fall 

Cracked 80 again today. Dewpoints between 60-62 have it feeling quite muggy. This might be worse than missing out on snow in winter. I love crisp fall afternoons more than anything and we are burning through the peak under a heat dome 

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 La Niña climo once the tropics get quiet is not kind to especially the SE half of the SE US for rainfall with SE ridge typically pretty dominant and the lack of a strong ST jet. A general BN rainfall pattern is forecasted by the model consensus through December.

12z run of GFS drops 0.00” here through November 15

70% of the state is now included in this weeks drought monitor, including the SW mountains of NC…

81.4 at the moment. More 80s than 40s here this month

0.18” gonna do it for October. Officially the driest month since I’ve lived here, following the wettest. Really worried about the rest of fall/winter in the rainfall department 

Jeezeee the 18z GFS is one of the most ridiculous heat domes I’ve ever seen in November! 80’s through the run and not a single low in the 40’s here! Absolute craziest torch I’ve ever seen modeled in November 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Should I just go ahead and start the Countdown to Winter 2025-2026 thread now?

It’s almost a lock RDU sets the record with our third straight snowless winter! (I’m taking your pessimistic approach this year maybe I’ll reverse jinx it) 

Absolute heinous torch pattern 

32 minutes ago, shaggy said:

You could fit the entire wind field of Oscar inside the eye of this one

That’s gotta be one of the most impressive sat shots we’ve seen in years size, ferocity, and the just meanness of that eye. This is a monster 

Kong-Rey is an absolute beast. My thoughts on the size of this storm are the giant size will make it less likely to weaken significantly before landfall even with terrain impacts 

Would not surprise me to start referencing the drought monitor by the end of the week, which seemed unfathomable after the last 3 months 

No rain on the foreseeable horizon and very warm. Great…

Well the rainless streak is over. 0.18” this morning. Looks like that will be our October total