NorthHillsWx

Per recon, radar, and sat, I’m not sure Philippe still has a closed center or meets criteria to still be a storm. Looks to have opened up

If you read CSU’s prediction, it was pretty spot on. My only critique to this point is they called for an ACE of 160 with 18 storms. We are well below that with 18 storms due to many weak and short lasting named systems this year. However, their forecast reasoning played out in the face of ENSO and I think it was truly an impressive call, especially to increase their prediction during a period when the basin was completely inactive.

As of this writing, the North Atlantic basin has exceeded an ACE value of 123. This is the value typically associated with an “average” season. I do not think many people predicted an above average ACE season, much less with more than a month to go and two active storms. Add in 18 named storms with 3 becoming major hurricanes (all cat 4+) and this has been an extremely active year. For an El Niño season (specifically a strong El Niño) this is absolutely unprecedented. 

18z GFS has Philippe literally absorb the other storm whilst interacting with Rina in a textbook perfect Fujiwhara effect and then absorbing Rinas remnants and becoming a monster hurricane. Almost 0 threat to land but i hope people are paying attention to this over the next several days as this is possibly the beginning of an incredibly rare meteorological event with two cyclones interacting in this manner 

41 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Should also add that shear is really taking its toll on Philippe. I mentioned in the previous post the outcome of Rina becoming the dominant TC. That might actually unfold. The low-level circulation flow of Philippe looks very broad now on visible. Forget TS status. It might even open up tonight if degradation of the low-level circulation continues.

I cannot find a closed circulation center on visible 

25 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Signs 

If this summer’s any indication, the east coast will have plenty of storm development. Let’s up it keeps up with ENSO but the signs are there

The model guidance for this system has become comical 

Amazing weather 

All I’ll say is this parade of coastal storms better continue into the winter…

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/OpheliaReview2023
 

Summary of Ophelia. Some very impressive winds on land along with the buoy reports (some over 80 mph) and recon observations indicate this was extremely close to hurricane strength at landfall. Not sure there’s enough for an upgrade but a 70 mph TS producing numerous 65-75 mph recorded gusts is impressive. It came it at a bad angle for Washington. I have some friends there who said it’s some of the worst flooding they’d experienced and no one expected it to be that bad 

2.96” from Ophelia 

This started showing up a few days ago but current storm (Philippe) looks to continue running headfirst in a wall of shear. The trailing wave (91l) actually benefits from this as the predecessor storm creates a break in the shear. The two systems go through a complex interaction, somewhat like a fujiwhara effect, before Philippe becomes a remnant low and the trailing system takes over as the dominant storm. Given the complexity of this interaction, guidance for 91L is all over the place. It seems a quicker weakening of Philippe may ultimately lead to a stronger trailing system. I expect heavy swings in model track guidance over the next couple of days as 91L seems tied to Philippe’s fate both from a track and intensity perspective. If 91L remains weak and not vertically stacked, it may take the southern route and get close to the islands. If it strengthens more, it seems to feel Philippe and get pulled north towards the break in the ridge quicker. Time will tell 

15 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i think as of right now idalia will be the only storm to be retired..

Maybe. I would be a bit surprised if Idalia was retired, seemed to be more bark than bite.

9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I suspect we still have more activity to come. 

Agree. We will have a NW Caribbean/GOM storm. We’re reaching that time period

Flash flooding becoming an issue. If you’ve driven around the triangle today you know what I’m talking about. Crabtree creek closing in on flood stage 

These are some crazy rain rates

Bad surge in little Washington right now. Friends boat getting washed off lift

https://youtube.com/shorts/-xa-fowIOLQ?si=w-JMrlbS813iyQmK

30 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Really looks impressively organized on radar. Came so close to being a hurricane

I think, given another hour over water, it would have become one. That last convective burst was impressive and radar really showed a formative eyewall. NHC said it was pretty much a flip of a coin and landfall winds were somewhere between 60-65 knots. Buoy gust to 83 is impressive and gusts over 70 from Atlantic beach to cape lookout. 

Just over 1” of rain here so far. Almost no wind 

This storm made a valiant last second attempt to tighten up a core as it came onshore and has maintained that since landfall 

12 hours ago, yotaman said:

I am up to 2.15" for the day. Very breezy but not even strong enough to knock down weak branches. Hopefully it stays that way. Peak wind so far has been 28.6 mph

The center looks to be going right over you this morning 

21 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

No change on the 8pm advisory.

8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 22
Location: 33.3°N 76.6°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Pressure lower 

Rain is here in Raleigh. A few good gusts before it got here but wind seems to have backed off a bit

Buoy reports have really ramped up. From cape fear to hatteras all offshore buoys are gusting over 50 with the Onslow bay outer buoy gusting to 65 at the moment. These winds should make it to the coast is the next 3-4 hours

Onslow bay outer buoy (shared earlier) gusting to 65

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, doesn't look stacked at all (more evident on loop). Kinda neat though!

It’s definitely not purely tropical but man what a cool evolution to watch unfold especially in radar range