NorthHillsWx

In the Euro AI we trust 

Not getting the good vibes we had yesterday morning

Just now, sarcean said:

NAM is a joke with thermals - do not trust NAM for precip type...or amounts.

NAM knows warm noses better than any but this is still at range so take NAM outputs with large grain of salt 

Yea this is ugly. 

If you wanted snow look away from this NAM run lol

NAM is warm. Don’t think it even snows in triangle 

1-2” then a glaze of ice color me happy

19.6 out this morning. Whatever falls first Friday night will definitely stick. 

Jan 2022 was completely lost on the models at this point and started showing up again 36 hours before go time.

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Mike Maze hates us

Always the last to fold. Don’t blame them. 

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The high temps on Saturday are a little suspect, particularly if sheets of concrete are on the ground. No way we hit 40.

Agreed. They usually undercut guidance with snow cover though. Probably a big melt though but at this point i just hope there’s something to worry about melting 

17 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Has there ever not been such a huge gradient in RDU? We moved to North Raleigh very close to the Durham County line about 19 years ago and I have always been amazed at the difference in show totals in my backyard vs. friends who live in Knightdale/Fuquay. It’s insane how sharp and stressful that gradient is!

Dec 2018 was wild. NW wake had 10” while southern Wake had a coating. 

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Raleigh folks need that front end thump to hit hit

It’s highly likely that front end IS our storm in the snowfall department 

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

This is going to be a roller coaster ride all the way until the storm arrives.

These are the storms we were raised on. Time to book a hotel in roxboro 

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Classic storm with a tight gradient over wake. Rdu could be a lot different than fuquay/garner.


.

Kinda exactly what we expect to get from most miller A’s. Don’t think this is ironed out until Thursday 

GFS is 1-2” snow then ice for RDU. Stays below freezing for duration

GFS minimal changes

Icon went way west with SLP

I’m not going as far as to say we’ve been NAM’d (because it’s honestly believable given other modeling) but that’s a beautiful run for this entire forum just about

NAM with a hell of a front end thump 

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Finally catching up on the posts and the model runs.... Been real busy today..... Everything is looking great so far. Love the trends! Still going in the right direction!

You’re in a great spot 

A good thing going for us is ensembles have largely been better than op runs from each of the model suites. To me that says there is better potential for this to trend positively for snow lovers than the opposite. Call it a gut feeling, whatever you want, but I think 18z and 0z might improve across the board for snowfall

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That is an incredible ensemble look at this range.

7 minutes ago, scottk said:

As someone who lives in NE SC, it’s great to see that I-95 is being forecasted to retain its magical snow-melting abilities smh

Tough spot to be for winter weather, even in this forum. So that’s saying something 

Historically I’ve used the Ukie for predominantly fodder or entertainment. But I could say the same for the Icon, and I’m willing to hang my hat on that at the moment