NorthHillsWx

30 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yes but the dry ones are mostly misses to the east/south, suppressed. That is a good miss to have at this range.

Most have the storm. That’s all we need for now

27.2 this morning and 53.3 this afternoon. First 50’s of the year 

Need ensembles to tick back up. Happy to still see the storm on some ops runs but a lot of the excitement last couple days was (I know the EURO and GFS mega storm runs reeled in a ton of folks) due to strong ensemble support for the timeframe 

11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yep. ENC keeps getting pounded every run.

Honestly an impressive string of runs for ENC

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Ensemble trends going the wrong direction, the fat lady is warming up...

The “Brick Storm” on life support already on D9

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks a little like the ICON run. Best thing is we have a storm showing up on different models. Plenty of time to iron out the details and there will be lots of back and forth between now and next week.

8-10 days out: pattern recognition. Pattern looks favorable for a winter storm threat. Box checked

4 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Canadian also has a storm...

“SIRI, define overrunning”

54 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This setup actually gives Deep South areas like yours a shot if one of those Siberian 1045+ highs moves into the lakes and not straight down. Cold might overwhelm the storm track for most but it could get unusual areas into a storm chance 

Prophetic 

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS looks good again.

Charleston crusher

33 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

ICON had some wintery precip at the end of the run.

 

Same setup as last week except with a HP in correct spot 

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 A general model cold bias that includes the SE US is always a factor that should be considered because it often (though not always) leads to less cold air verifying vs what is shown, say, 8-10 days out (like what happened last week…keep in mind those extreme runs with widespread single digits to middle teens) and consistent with that storm tracks correcting to reality further NW (like also just happened as instead of offshore the SE coast it was mainly well inland). 
 

 But every case is different. So, we’ll see. For one important thing, how strong will the strongest 1/19-23 Arctic high actually be? If it ends up there’s a 1050ish coming down that maintains itself well into the 1040s for quite awhile and keeping in mind Siberian cold would be involved, that would favor deeper into the SE wintry precip possibilities and thus affect more people though it could also end up dry. I’d rather have the big high and see how it plays out.

This setup actually gives Deep South areas like yours a shot if one of those Siberian 1045+ highs moves into the lakes and not straight down. Cold might overwhelm the storm track for most but it could get unusual areas into a storm chance 

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

He was referring to the 0z run of the monster. At 6z, it's gone. 

Correct. Should have elaborated 

There are two opposite but very possible ways to lose and both are shown on models. 
1) Suppression: our system is squashed by the extreme Arctic airmass and we miss out. I really don’t think this will happen. I think the cold airmass is likely over modeled and we will see some relaxing of the cold push as we get closer

2) Cold hung up west of apps. I know this sounds funny given the Euro extreme cold but we’ve seen this tune before and Canadian demonstrates it perfectly. There are some hints of a SER forming this weekend and we should be well acquainted with those impacts and setting the frontal zone up over the Carolina’s versus over or off the coast. You end up with an overrunning event for the Tennessee valley. I am much more worried bout this than suppression with the ridge orientation out west and lack of blocking over the North Atlantic even after this weekends rain storm
 

There will be cold and moisture during the 19-26th period but there are clear cut ways to lose that are quite opposite of each other. Something in between is our path to victory. 

EURO AI has a monster storm

12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NW trend baby!

Right where we want it

This place has changed since last year 

2 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

….and then NAM will crush us with the truth.

There are few truths in life, but weenies weenying at D10 GFS runs and NAM crushing weenie snow hopes are two of them 

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

I have had one for almost 20 years. Why do you think I'm on here so much?

This made my evening. I might have an affair with the GFS if this teasing continues. So damn hot right now 

Beautiful storm on happy hour run. Parks the deformation band over the triangle for half a day think we’ll take that look lol

41 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I mean that screams SE winter storm threat. If you had to draw a snow distribution for a significant SE storm it would be that footprint 

Given January thus far and what is modeled for the remainder of the month, most on this board look to not only finish the month BN, but WAY BN in the temp department 

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

End of days for Raleigh. We’d never recover.

If anyone has school kids you could go ahead and kiss their summer break goodbye 

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

All models show some type of wave trying to generate in the Western Gulf there, that is such a suppressive pattern I'd be surprised if anything showed up consistently before D4-5 because most ensemble members and Op runs will want to squash the wave

Exactly. It’s a very strong signal. Obviously we have no clue what the system will look like but I’m becoming confident pieces will be in play for a SE winter storm. This isn’t a model hiccup like we’re used to. Pretty much all suites are locked into that timeframe and we’re seeing winter storms pop on ops most runs. In other words, the pattern recognition is there

6 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.

 

No bombs like that but there are a lot of members showing a storm during the period. That’s ok with me.

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

That's true, trying to not get excited when you see something like that is hard to do. However, the energy being modeled is only like 6-7 days out from working it's way towards us. 

Yea. It’s nice to have had a storm and immediately have something to start to track without punting 2-3 weeks