NorthHillsWx

2.96” from Ophelia 

This started showing up a few days ago but current storm (Philippe) looks to continue running headfirst in a wall of shear. The trailing wave (91l) actually benefits from this as the predecessor storm creates a break in the shear. The two systems go through a complex interaction, somewhat like a fujiwhara effect, before Philippe becomes a remnant low and the trailing system takes over as the dominant storm. Given the complexity of this interaction, guidance for 91L is all over the place. It seems a quicker weakening of Philippe may ultimately lead to a stronger trailing system. I expect heavy swings in model track guidance over the next couple of days as 91L seems tied to Philippe’s fate both from a track and intensity perspective. If 91L remains weak and not vertically stacked, it may take the southern route and get close to the islands. If it strengthens more, it seems to feel Philippe and get pulled north towards the break in the ridge quicker. Time will tell 

15 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i think as of right now idalia will be the only storm to be retired..

Maybe. I would be a bit surprised if Idalia was retired, seemed to be more bark than bite.

9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I suspect we still have more activity to come. 

Agree. We will have a NW Caribbean/GOM storm. We’re reaching that time period

Flash flooding becoming an issue. If you’ve driven around the triangle today you know what I’m talking about. Crabtree creek closing in on flood stage 

These are some crazy rain rates

Bad surge in little Washington right now. Friends boat getting washed off lift

https://youtube.com/shorts/-xa-fowIOLQ?si=w-JMrlbS813iyQmK

30 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Really looks impressively organized on radar. Came so close to being a hurricane

I think, given another hour over water, it would have become one. That last convective burst was impressive and radar really showed a formative eyewall. NHC said it was pretty much a flip of a coin and landfall winds were somewhere between 60-65 knots. Buoy gust to 83 is impressive and gusts over 70 from Atlantic beach to cape lookout. 

Just over 1” of rain here so far. Almost no wind 

This storm made a valiant last second attempt to tighten up a core as it came onshore and has maintained that since landfall 

12 hours ago, yotaman said:

I am up to 2.15" for the day. Very breezy but not even strong enough to knock down weak branches. Hopefully it stays that way. Peak wind so far has been 28.6 mph

The center looks to be going right over you this morning 

21 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

No change on the 8pm advisory.

8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 22
Location: 33.3°N 76.6°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Pressure lower 

Rain is here in Raleigh. A few good gusts before it got here but wind seems to have backed off a bit

Buoy reports have really ramped up. From cape fear to hatteras all offshore buoys are gusting over 50 with the Onslow bay outer buoy gusting to 65 at the moment. These winds should make it to the coast is the next 3-4 hours

Onslow bay outer buoy (shared earlier) gusting to 65

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, doesn't look stacked at all (more evident on loop). Kinda neat though!

It’s definitely not purely tropical but man what a cool evolution to watch unfold especially in radar range 

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

And dropsonde with 66kt surface.

 

That’s enough for an upgrade. FL, SFMR, and dropsonde

It wouldn’t surprise me to see hurricane warnings coming out shortly based on that pass. FL 75 kts, SFMR 60-62 kts 

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Any threat of severe storms or tornados inland?

Yes. NE NC 

Recon is finding winds near hurricane force and they just started sampling the stronger NW side. Hurricane warning incoming? 

Per recon, this might be almost at hurricane strength 

Going to be interesting to watch where that NW band sets up. Could really bring some nasty weather well inland 

And we have Ophelia. 60 mph, 991 mb. This isn’t going to be far from hurricane intensity at landfall 

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Wonder if folks up here in the Triangle need to prepare for downed trees and power outages. Not sure if it will be that bad up here or not. 

Scattered outages but nothing major. What you’d expect with 40-45 mph winds

39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The 12z GFS took a sizeable jump west and now brings 2-3" of rain to the Triad. It also brings higher (50mph +) gusts to Raleigh 

I think triangle area should be included in the TS warning 

Cape lookout (on land) sustained 40 kts Gusting 48 kts