NorthHillsWx

Eye might be benefitting from frictional convergence. Donut again from Tampa radar. This is not a rapidly weakening storm like a lot of the gulf halfacanes we used to see. I think this is steady state making landfall after a higher end peak a few hours ago

This thing is like a carbon copy of Michael’s progression to this point. Go back and rewatch a satellite loop of hurricane Michael from its birth as a depression to when it passed west of key west. The resemblance is scary 

The only silver lining from the trends this morning is, if the current track holds, the storm could not have found a much more sparsely populated area than where it’s currently forecast to make landfall 

Based on recon and sat imagery I bet this has reached hurricane status. I’m guessing upgrade coming at the intermediate advisory 

Cat 4. 130 mph 

I hate to say it but this feels like watching the birth of the next great Gulf hurricane

5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

GSO maxed out at 88, at least a 7 degree bust for most tv forecasts, and about 10 degrees cooler than what GFS modeled 

5 hours ago, Stormpc said:

GFS has been bad overdoing the heat lately.  By a lot. 

We have not had that kind of luck in my parts. Another scorcher yesterday, 97.4

A high ceiling means very little in the grand scheme of things and that is totally off the assumption this gets a coherent core together about the time it enters the gulf. Without engaging in hyperbole, this system needs to be watched with extreme caution because the ingredients are present for a strong hurricane to impact the gulf coast without the usual week-long buildup 

Once this gets going I don’t really see a major hindrance to strengthening other than land. The shear vector is favorable, it’s going over nuclear fuel in the gulf, and it might get a bit of an boost from the upper level jet offering optimal ventilation. Dry air in western gulf could be an issue but if this wraps up quick these Caribbean storms have shown to be less susceptible to that unless hit with NW shear. I think the next 24-36 hours tell the tale of how strong this will get as it is entirely dependent on how fast it can ramp up before landfall 

Since Michael, I will never take a storm forming like this lightly regardless of initial model intensity. I actually think this has a higher ceiling than what models are showing. This isn’t that dissimilar situation from what led to Michael doing what it did. If this consolidates in the NW Caribbean before entering the Gulf, watch out

Franklin got shredded last night wow!!!

This system developing in NW Caribbean feels like something you’d see spin up in October, not August. The Atlantic has a late season feel to it at the moment 

GEFS tends to keep the eastern trough into the beginning of September while EPS tends to weaken it with a turn to SE ridging to start the month. These two divergent solutions offer extremely different outlooks towards the prospect of a east coast landfall and with an extremely active basin (from a wave standpoint) this needs to be watched as to which solution comes to fruition. Does the GEFS solution of keeping a trough continue to offer a barrier to storms like Franklin or does the trough breakdown and offer a window for storms to move further west and threaten the EC? Will need to be watched for trends over the coming days. My thoughts are leaning towards a window of opportunity during the September 3-10 timeframe for an east coast threat. I still think homegrown or gulf systems are the mode of getting a storm to threaten the US but that is looking like a window for something to slip through from the east 

Hispaniola used to be shredzilla for storms but recently they’ve become immune to it. Franklins circulation looks better defined now than at any point before land interaction 

What an amazing day! High of just short of 85 with low humidity and NE wind!!!

47 minutes ago, marsman said:

5pm advisory out. They'll likely be strong currents and waves for the east coast coming up. Already seeing 6-10' wave forecasts offshore OBX.

Surfers dream week incoming 

Not the most important thing to focus on at this point in the season, but several runs of the GFS already bring the 540 line down into eastern Canada and have shown snow pretty far south. Hopefully a harbinger of an early end to the season with El Niño taking over 

There’s a growing chance Franklin becomes the first MH of the season 

23 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

91 yesterday at GSO. Even in the hottest patterns, it’s been really difficult to get impressive heat in the Triad this year.

We can share our heat! -your neighbors just to the east 

95.3 yesterday. Looking forward to a reprieve today 

Lol at the HFAI (?) intensity forecast this morning. Just your run of the mill 175 knot peak 

I think this storm was stronger at LF than NHC had it. There were 65-70 kt velocities at LF from Corpus Christi south and several observations above 60 kts. Was interesting to watch it wrap up in the final hour. Obviously overall the impacts for the storm are incredibly beneficial from a rainfall standpoint. Wish Houston area and north had been able to get into the rains 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Gotta wonder if there will be a reformation after landfall.

Id bank on it. Current LLC seems to be moving west and will probably die under the shear (it’s already weak at best). With the ongoing convective flare ups east I would be shocked if a new center didn’t form under them at some point. This system shows just how hostile the environment is, however

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Steering pattern just doesn’t look conducive for a strike after DR/Haiti and maybe Bermuda. Just discussing though—I still believe we need to get this out of the Caribbean to see what eventual long term track looks like as it moves north.

Honestly a system cutting NE from the carribbean is highly unusual in August. Seems El Niño-y to me

Not sure if it’s verifying on the ground but that intense band moving onshore has a lot of velocities exceeding 50 kts

Would’ve been a cane if it had 10 more hours over water