NorthHillsWx

12z GFS is WAYYYY west 

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Shivering groudhogs

What a cold winter. We’d forgotten what these were

Really think the triangle is in a great spot to break the 1” snow drought 

I think Wake county gets 1-2” tonight. Triad will be tricky with the edge but I think you go from no accumulation to 1” pretty quick then you have a large area of 1-2” before the coastal plain increase

21.2/6.3

The NAM drops .2-.3” QPF in the central piedmont of NC tonight. It was 0.05-0.10” last night. This will be a much bigger deal in a hurry if we get .2” QPF in these temps. I would not write off an over performer (2”) for piedmont areas given latest and continued NW trends

Ummm yea, about those models. WWA for us. Seems likely to keep expanding NW

This hobby takes a toll on your sanity 

FV3 and NAM gonna be good runs for central NC

Not going to lie, watching the Euro join the trend with everything else is giving me hope. This is the first time we’ve had consensus on a trend across suites. When the euro headfaked everyone a couple days ago everything else was going opposite direction.

One thing that seems locked in is New Orleans getting historic snowfall amounts. I have family in Lafayette and they are beyond excited. If we get snow it’ll make me much more happy to cheer for the gulf coast, lol

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

WRAL playing this down on the evening report

And the sky is still blue

So tonight, after having just the FV3 giving my area snow this morning, the GFS, EURO, ICON, NAM, and FV3 all have snow here. That’s a pretty significant cross model shift at least here. Keep in mind we’re not talking big amounts. At this point 1/2” seems like a win. I’m not expecting a big storm by any means. By 1” is certainly back on the table 

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Still have time for it to be an inch or so. Better than nothing at all.

An inch would be epic to me at this point

I love this place.

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

lol it snows in Boone this run

I love the GFS so very much. The definition of consistency 

GFS gets 0.05-0.10” all the way to the NW triad this run. Keep in mind 0.15” probably gets you an inch in these temps. Really not a huge adjustment needed to get impactful snows across the piedmont if these trends continue 

Just now, cbmclean said:

DON'T GET SUCKED BACK IN!! They're just toying with us.

Honestly I may log off again bc since I left pretty much everything trended this direction 

MAYBE we gave up just a little early….

GFS gonna push the precip way NW from previous runs I believe 

I kinda laid off models for a little while but looking at this afternoons data I’d feel much better about accumulations in eastern NC than yesterday! Very positive trends there

26 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Maybe if the NW trend on the NAM, Euro and GFS is correct I might get to seem some snow fall at least.

ICON too. Not NW but more neutral 

39 minutes ago, Wolfpack25 said:

I don't know if this means anything but it is about 4 or 5 degrees warmer here in SE NC today then was forecast yesterday.  

Same here! We were forecast to be a high of 32 but we are currently knocking on 40!

9 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

RDU east will like the 18z NAM

NAM to RDU folks “You will take your flurries and you will like them!” 
 

Pretty big jump on most guidance. Don’t think this gets the triangle back into the game but it might be good for eastern NC peeps. 

Well above our forecast high of 32. Currently 36.3

Made it up to 39.2. Has since fallen a little bit so that may have been our max. Exceeding guidance/forecast by 7 decrees is significant!

GFS run was interesting. Whole system well NW and more of a neutral tilt