NorthHillsWx

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Still sitting at 32.5° at my house right now. Waiting to see how far that temperature gets at or below freezing to see how much ice we get tonight. Right now it's just a cold rain with the temperature barely above freezing

That sounds horrible

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s GEFS based AO forecast is even more impressive for 2/15-18 as it suggests a dip to ~-5 is quite possible then! That would be lowest daily AO since 2/10-11/2021! Other Feb sub -5 AOs since 1950 were only these:

-2/10-11/2021 (-5.285 on 2/10) (weak +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/14/2010 (-5.132) (moderate +PNA, MJO moderate 8)

-2/6-7/2010 (-5.205 on 2/6) (strong +PNA, MJO moderate 7)

-2/5-6/1978 (-5.291 on 2/5, lowest Feb AO on record) (strong +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/13-16/1969 (-5.282 on 2/13)(neutral PNA, MJO unknown)

 

At the same time the PNA could be nearing +1:

 

At same time, MJO could be in moderate phase  8:

 

Stop it, I can only get so aroused 

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like the Op, hopefully it’s not skewing it and that’s just indicative of a lot of alignment of individual members!!!

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro for day 9:

kuchera 24 hour snow (fwiw since day 9)

ZR for day 9 (excludes the ZR in NW NC/VA):

I posted before I saw this but that is a coastal bomb

We’re seeing very good agreement for a day 9 storm across models. This should be getting attention on the board

EURO WOULD FEED FAMILIES IN CENTRAL NC!!! Multiple storm threats behind the 20th and Barney cold!

19 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Very strong signal on the 12z GEFS

 

The op run was extremely close 

13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Storm signal is there on the CMC as well for the same time period. 

CMC says I’ll be skiing Virginia powder that weekend 

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z GFS: total ZR through day 10:

-much of this is not til day 9-10 and thus still pretty far out and therefore very highly subject to major changes obviously

-some of this over especially NW NC, far N NC, and in VA is from earlier storms….see 2nd image:

 

This 2nd image is only for earlier storms. But that still means the first image’s heavy amounts in much of Triad to Charlotte area to upstate SC to NE GA are all from the day 9-10 storm.

 

Sadly that is a classic wedge look for an ice storm. We better hope that we can get the energy to consolidate and eject earlier or this is a likely scenario given the cold coming and well positioned high

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

yep looks like crap for now and probably will shift north into the Mid-Atlantic over time.

Problem all winter has been energy getting hung up too long. If it would just eject this would be a snowstorm. No reason to believe the winter trend will be fixed this time. Way to waste a 1044 mb banana high and active STJ!

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Gets actual cold, holds back energy...story of this winter

Big ice storm incoming 

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS looks like it might be setting up for a colder storm solution on the 20th…

It hangs the energy up in SW. But a 1040+ banana high over the Great Lakes… 

GFS looks like it might be setting up for a colder storm solution on the 20th…

Someone between DC and Richmond is going to get a foot+ from this. That moisture feed goes all the way back to Arkansas. 

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Cherry blossoms in DC going to be blooming late this year it seems

Different late February than what we’ve seen past few years

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Shocked no one posted this yet


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Most of the forum is buying pre emergent and garden flowers at Lowe’s right now. I think people will trickle back on here in the next couple days

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Cousins in Richmond are reporting SN+ already. 

Reporting 2 inches in 2 hours. That’s a great front end. Radar looks juiced for a few more hours 

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The GEFS and EPS are almost identical at this range. The specifics will need to be worked out but yea this pattern has serious legs to it. I’d like to see that 50/50 low slightly further west but that’s nitpicking a beautiful setup. Look at that block to the north!

There’s plenty of cold in Canada and it should get displaced. The next few days while we build boats, southern Canada and New England will be building a glacier. We’ve been on a trend this year of having highs to the north but they’re either too weak or not in an optimal position. If we can build that snowpack above us, I think we could make more of these 1030-1035mb HPs benefit us. I don’t think this pattern favors a cutter, it favors a big EC storm. Someone, maybe us, maybe not, is about to get possibly the storm of the year. With as cold as this winter has been, it’s only right that it happens.


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As you mentioned, that’s a big dog setup. I’m not saying we (the southeast) gets a snowstorm but the pattern favors an east coast storm and there will be a lot of cold air north of the track. 

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

The cold was overdone for this timeframe last week. The next wave is probably overdone also. We are running out of time the further south we are.

I never believed this airmass would work. This was a stalled boundary and with the SER orientation it is very hard to get these to seep south. The cold was not overdone north of us. With a 50/50 low, no SER and the Arctic open for business, next week is a totally different animal from a cold air transport perspective. It’s kind of what you’re looking for in terms of getting cold air into the southeast….

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The 500 mb pattern is a thing of beauty during that stretch. 

NAO trends slightly negative around that timeframe so maybe we can get a storm with some blocking. The Arctic air coming is similar to the January airmass we saw. I don’t think cold air availability will be an issue, just storm track. There appears to be a VERY strong signal for a storm around the 20th. And possibly a follow up system later that week. I’m skiing in Massanutten the 20th-23rd so it could be well timed 

10 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thank you!

What’d yall get from the front end thump 

Rain, sleet, and surprisingly big mangled flakes here at the moment. 36.3/35

Cousins in Richmond are reporting SN+ already. 

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Central VA special on this one.  What a moisture feed back to Arkansas!

Someone’s getting 1 foot+

Few pingers here earlier