NorthHillsWx

Everyone breathe. There’s been no notable trend in models since yesterday other than everything has the storm now and suppression looks extremely unlikely. Pay attention to the lobes of energy moving around the western ridge and the phase with the Baja low. Also watch the antecedent airmass and H5. Really want a stronger HP over the Ohio valley/NE ahead of this system. There’s a good chance nothing resolves today or tomorrow but I expect by tomorrow we will see a trend developing in regards to the phase location and strength. Really hoping this one works out but still not sold given the variables 

Just now, SnowDawg said:

H5 was improved on the GFS, I'll take that and move on to the next runs. Better phase with the northern energy improved the mid-level thermals and made the front end thump last longer. 

^this. I think a better phase/more amped system is needed to pull in cold air for snow. Track will dictate precip type but a full phase/stronger system with correct track looks like the only way we win in this setup

I’d take the Canadian Ice storm at this point. Anything is better than today’s weather. Give me anything frozen

Big improvements on GEFS

Stuck at 35.8. Heavy rain now, rain definitely overachieving here. 0.65 and counting, may make a run at an inch (forecast was 0.25-.50)

Just now, eyewall said:

At this point an hour of snow-covered grass will do it for me. I have significantly lowered my standards just like on Tinder.

Something tells me next winter is our chance 

52 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

 

this one should work

This seems off because we had more in 2018 (8” if I recall)

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Yep they got half the forecast in some spots.

They upped the forecast right before it started. Pretty giant busy up there but I’d take any of it

Those were some ugly model runs last night. 

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Would really like to get back to southern slider solutions. That is a mid-atlantic storm. 

I kinda disagree. Southern slider is a “safer option” but if trends from this run continue this is how we’d get our “big dog”. This was more about track than airmass issues. I mean even with this track it locks RDU below freezing for the event. I guess to your point, 18z is the go big or go home option, but there are a lot of pieces to like about the phase and negative tilt, along with HP placement and cold being established before the storm without screaming southerlies at 850 like we’d seen the last few days. 
 

18z also shows a lot of potential following the storm this weekend. The ridge placement out west looks a lot better for the next system and it delivers cold through the run. While I know it’s likely way overestimated, this doesn’t look like a cutter pattern. One run, I know

Ok I’ll say this. That’s the best run of the GFS in a long time. Why? Less interaction with the LP near the Canadian border. Better antecedent HP location. Negative tilt (obviously). There are lots of things to love about this evenings run even tho it’s primarily a mid Atlantic/NE run for snow. Big improvements in the overall setup. Just a run but that’s what we want 

DC 2010 vibes with their foot tonight followed by 2-3ft Saturday/sunday

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Looks like a mid Atlantic bomb incoming 

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm getting model fatigue I think. Might take a break but I probably need to go to rehab. 

A lot of us could use model rehab after the past week+ but this place has been alive for the first time in many a moon 

Mod sheet here

GEFS ensemble panels look atrocious but EPS is mildly better for next weekends system. I do not like the lack of a HP over NE with the storm. Cold air especially at ML will be easily scoured out. And the antecedent airmass has modified by 10-15 degrees over the last 5-6 days of model runs. Starting with a questionable airmass and relying on a weak slider seems to be the only way we snow unless models drop the GL low or keep a HP locked in a somewhat favorable location. Flow is all southerly ahead of this system so that’s why you’re seeing some runs with a favorable track and still seeing mix issues. I just don’t like this look at all without major changes upstairs and over the lakes and New England 

1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Yep, and this is the new norm for much of the southeast. So, look ahead a week and a half, it is all we will have. The models are starting to look the same way they did for the storm today for the 10th/11th system. Kicking the can to fab Feb. This storm on Friday simply doesn't have enough cold air and the models are showing that. 

What’s wild is looking back at the cross polar flow and modeled cold from last weeks modeling, and thinking cold air would not be the issue. Fast forward to now and reality is, cold air is always an issue. We went from a week straight of highs progged in low to mid 30s and lows in teens to just 40’s and lows in mid 20s, not that cold. Just insane miss by models especially given the consensus we had of possibly record level cold

Love how we go from pipe busting cold on the models to 40’s followed by rainstorms during the advertised period

Cold-ish rain incoming

I take it the EURO didn’t work out

Boundary layer issues in piedmont 

I’m out still. GFS is terrible. Ensembles do not agree 

I’m throwing in the towel on this period. I see nothing changing for the positive. Maybe something sneaks in as the pattern breaks down in a couple weeks

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

DC weenies are going to have an absolute meltdown 

The northern trend they were praying for yesterday has been answered!

8 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

FWIW, both the 12Z NAM and RGEM have dewpoints in the single digits in CAD areas early Sunday afternoon with wet bulbs 25-30.  Having said that, there's no wedge signature or HP in the northeast.  I suspect the wet bulb will move up quickly as precip arrives.  At this stage, it looks like even Snowshoe might be mainly ice.  

TW

Yea the CAD signal with the HP has certainly diminished. Looking more and more like an in situ event. But to your point, the airmass ahead of the system is plenty cold to lock in a wedge in the most favored areas