NorthHillsWx

Rain is here in Raleigh. A few good gusts before it got here but wind seems to have backed off a bit

Buoy reports have really ramped up. From cape fear to hatteras all offshore buoys are gusting over 50 with the Onslow bay outer buoy gusting to 65 at the moment. These winds should make it to the coast is the next 3-4 hours

Onslow bay outer buoy (shared earlier) gusting to 65

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, doesn't look stacked at all (more evident on loop). Kinda neat though!

It’s definitely not purely tropical but man what a cool evolution to watch unfold especially in radar range 

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

And dropsonde with 66kt surface.

 

That’s enough for an upgrade. FL, SFMR, and dropsonde

It wouldn’t surprise me to see hurricane warnings coming out shortly based on that pass. FL 75 kts, SFMR 60-62 kts 

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Any threat of severe storms or tornados inland?

Yes. NE NC 

Recon is finding winds near hurricane force and they just started sampling the stronger NW side. Hurricane warning incoming? 

Per recon, this might be almost at hurricane strength 

Going to be interesting to watch where that NW band sets up. Could really bring some nasty weather well inland 

And we have Ophelia. 60 mph, 991 mb. This isn’t going to be far from hurricane intensity at landfall 

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Wonder if folks up here in the Triangle need to prepare for downed trees and power outages. Not sure if it will be that bad up here or not. 

Scattered outages but nothing major. What you’d expect with 40-45 mph winds

39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The 12z GFS took a sizeable jump west and now brings 2-3" of rain to the Triad. It also brings higher (50mph +) gusts to Raleigh 

I think triangle area should be included in the TS warning 

Cape lookout (on land) sustained 40 kts Gusting 48 kts 

23 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Haven’t seen a land reporting station gusting over 30 yet

You’re not looking. Cape lookout, piney island, Beaufort, then pretty much every pier from hatteras north has seen 40+ mph gusts 

35 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Which ones are already at sustained TS conditions? I aint denying it, I am just wondering where to find these stations. Also I posted in another thread but thought I would post here aswell, but maybe the beginning workings of a core? 

Here it is KLTX

Kinda intrigued by the curve look. However, from satellite it seems the circulation is displaced to the south of this, so I am unsure. Thoughts would be appreciated

Onslow Bay outer buoy 

Wilmington Buoy

Frying Pan Tower

Diamond Shoals

Cape Hatteras Buoy

All have seen sustained winds 35-45 kts with some gusts over 55 kts

For Land:

Cape Lookout had a 52 MPH gust with 39 mph sustained wind 

Numerous buoy wind readings over 50 mph. Several reporting stations on land with sustained TS winds already with more reporting gusts to TS force. Pretty long duration event for parts of the sound will really work to drive up water levels. 

Can definitely tell it’s not a fully tropical system when you step outside. A cool north wind blowing today. Very fall feel to the air, not the usual muggy tropical vibe before tropical storms/hurricanes 

Pressure is really plummeting. Down to 996 based on buoy reports

Gusts of 40-45 look likely for triangle area. These quasi-tropical systems tend to develop a mean NW rain band. Wherever that sets up will exceed expectations with this storm for inland areas. Coast looks locked in for equivalent of a high-end TS. Track this is taking works to drive a lot of surge up the sounds and rivers. Forecast surge values increased to 3-5’ for some rivers and bays on western sides of the sounds.

15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s literally right over where it was before.

It is now. It started further west. It’s a wide non tropical center so it’s going to be tough to pinpoint where the actual center forms when it acquires tropical characteristics 

GFS coming in stronger and further west

Well, PTC has been designated off the Florida coast. Models have really honed in on the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras as a landfall threat. Models are also indicating this could become fully tropical before landfall, and possibly strengthen to a high-end TS. As a short notice event, folks should probably prepare for the equivalent of a hurricane landfall. The forecast track also could be nudged west, as some models are showing. Areas from the Triangle-east need to pay attention. This is likely to produce higher impacts than Idalia for the state.

Cape Fear just got NAM’d

Quite a few members of both EPS and GEFS suites get this below 990 mb before coming ashore. While it’s of non tropical origin and winds will likely be lower as compared to a tropical cyclone at equal pressure, I do not think a storm near hurricane force is off the table. For folks on the coast that’s what I’d prepare for.