NorthHillsWx

Wow, somehow Otis has rapidly strengthened into a major. FL winds to 110 kts and unflagged SFMR values near 100 kts. Absolutely insane high end season going on over in the EPAC

First “light” frost of the year this morning on roofs mostly. 37.6 the low

EPAC producing again. Looks like another overachiever though this time all indications are it will slow down and weaken before it approaches this coastline, unlike lidia 

24 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

8 out of 11 typhoons in the WPAC this year have reached category 3+ intensity. 6 out of 8 on the EPAC have achieved the same.

That’s an incredible stat for both basins 

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Quite possibly the prettiest storm of the year. Also a contender for strongest of the year.

https://x.com/135knots/status/1712038686479761797?s=20

 

Pacific (Pacific east and west) producing this year 

Landfall at peak intensity and intensifying rapidly. Wish there was footage from the landfall point but thankfully this kept heading south into extremely rural countryside

140 mph Cat 4. Incredible RI through landfall. Just wow

Drop of 3mb between passes 

Major Rapidly intensifying into landfall. This doesn’t happen on Mexico’s west coast often 

Lidia now a major

Lidia growing teeth quickly this morning 

42 this morning. Frost out towards Louisburg 

As if on cue- Philippe was finally downgraded and the streak is over

With Philippe continuing (albeit a disorganized mess) the streak of an active Atlantic storm continues. Since August 20, there has not been an advisory cycle without an active system. Further, with models now showing development of the next wave coming off Africa, it will be a race to see if that development occurs prior to Philippe’s extratropical transition. What a streak regardless 

I still don’t see how this has managed to remain classified as a tropical system for the past couple days. Recon yet again shows a broad, trough-like circulation 

Per the GFS, the system opens up into a wave before being absorbed and combining with a large, non-tropical low over GL and Canada. Pretty wild to see what’s left of a tropical cyclone go from the Virgin Islands to Ontario without ever touching the US

Per recon, radar, and sat, I’m not sure Philippe still has a closed center or meets criteria to still be a storm. Looks to have opened up

If you read CSU’s prediction, it was pretty spot on. My only critique to this point is they called for an ACE of 160 with 18 storms. We are well below that with 18 storms due to many weak and short lasting named systems this year. However, their forecast reasoning played out in the face of ENSO and I think it was truly an impressive call, especially to increase their prediction during a period when the basin was completely inactive.

As of this writing, the North Atlantic basin has exceeded an ACE value of 123. This is the value typically associated with an “average” season. I do not think many people predicted an above average ACE season, much less with more than a month to go and two active storms. Add in 18 named storms with 3 becoming major hurricanes (all cat 4+) and this has been an extremely active year. For an El Niño season (specifically a strong El Niño) this is absolutely unprecedented. 

18z GFS has Philippe literally absorb the other storm whilst interacting with Rina in a textbook perfect Fujiwhara effect and then absorbing Rinas remnants and becoming a monster hurricane. Almost 0 threat to land but i hope people are paying attention to this over the next several days as this is possibly the beginning of an incredibly rare meteorological event with two cyclones interacting in this manner 

41 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Should also add that shear is really taking its toll on Philippe. I mentioned in the previous post the outcome of Rina becoming the dominant TC. That might actually unfold. The low-level circulation flow of Philippe looks very broad now on visible. Forget TS status. It might even open up tonight if degradation of the low-level circulation continues.

I cannot find a closed circulation center on visible 

25 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Signs 

If this summer’s any indication, the east coast will have plenty of storm development. Let’s up it keeps up with ENSO but the signs are there

The model guidance for this system has become comical 

Amazing weather 

All I’ll say is this parade of coastal storms better continue into the winter…