NorthHillsWx

Ahhhh, the old truck tire 

Lee, Franklin, Idalia, and climo have laid down a protective barrier for the east coast for anything coming from the east the rest of this season. 

It’s kind of an unconventional way (looks like it sucked in dry air vs unusual formation through subsidence) but Nigel definitely appears to be showing an eye this morning. Given the eye size and dry air in northern part of the circulation, RI should be limited. I think cat 3 is the ceiling here

Getting “the look” this evening 

Can’t wait to see all the videos of 45 mph wind, rough ocean and sea spray tomorrow 

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

There must be some sting jet on the southern end of the transitioning Lee as recon just reported multiple unflagged SFMR readings of 82 knots. 

Exactly. Models nailed this. 80+ kts and no rain. That’s definitely the non tropical sting jet

Recon matches what we all saw on satellite: Lee is losing tropical characteristics quickly. More or less the temp profile of a front and the highest winds are well away from the center. That NW band actually has the first hurricane-force SFMR values seen in the last couple flights 

Going to be our 4th major and likely another cat 4 if guidance is to be trusted. What a season 

Recon is… unimpressive 

Did no expect the core to completely disappear this soon. 

With yet another long track storm possible next week, it’s worth noting that Atlantic ACE has exceeded 100 units this morning and with two active storms plus the future Nigel on the way, that value will continue to increase through next week. We are now running well ahead and likely to exceed normal seasonal values if early forecasts for Nigel verify. Pretty impressive for an El Niño year 

Not sure any international agency would’ve prevented what happened in Libya, sadly. 

Other than FL winds, nothing else points to this being a cat 2 anymore. Max SFMR values of 70-75 kts two flights in a row 

Regardless where/if this comes ashore, I think the calling card will be rain and inland flooding. There’s really no baroclinic forcing or jet streak to enhance winds during the ET transition like some of the storms that hit up north and models are showing a rapid and normal decay of winds once this transitions over the wall of the Gulf Stream. Add into that, wind shear really peaks at 20-30kts by the time this is going by Bermuda and you have a rapidly weakening system before it hits the cold water north of the GS. Also, for a high latitude storm, this will be comparatively crawling in terms of forward speed (which will further decrease the wind threat). However, that slower than normal forward speed and tge potential for a bit of a pivot means that heavy tropical moisture will be thrust into the NW side of the system (normal during ET transition) and areas not accustomed to these tropical rain rates will have a prolonged rainstorm. I really think inland flooding with this could be significantly worse than many recent high latitude storms that were flying through when they impacted land. Though I think the wind threat has decreased significantly since even yesterday 

7 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I don't know; latest models have the center clearing eastern MA by about 500 miles. Sure-it can expand, but a Hurricane 500 miles away isn't going to deliver much in terms of winds and rain usually. Hurricane Isabel being the exception to the rule. 

Isabel is such an underrated storm. That’s the high tide mark for a mid-Atlantic purely tropical storm in my lifetime. I think the storm beginning with an “S” made many forget about Isabel North of Maryland

One thing about Lee, hurricane force winds now extend extremely far from center. Recon is finding this thing has exploded in size. It’s probably a high end cat 2 now (FL 105-108 kts, SFMR 90 kts) tho there is evidence to keep it a 3 for posterity at least but wow at the expansion of hurricane force winds

That 0z run would be one of the worst erosion events ever for the SE coast lol

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

That's New Brunswick, CA, between far east Maine and SW Nova Scotia and the storm is predicted to go from 981 mbar in the frame below to 989 at landfall in far SW Nova Scotia (if one assumes this being correct 6 days out).  

I've seen 970-980 at or very close to landfall, which implies a Cat 1/2 system (likely transitioning to extratropical), based on the SS scale.  A pretty big deal for that neck of the woods.  Anyone from Cape Cod to Newfoundland should be prepared.  

 

 

 

 

Do not, I repeat do no use any sort of tropical pressure scale to estimate wind of high latitude, post tropical systems. Pressures are lower up north and lower pressures in these regions will not be associated to winds the same way they are for storms that are purely tropical in nature and in lower latitudes. I’m not saying a Cat 1 is off the table but some models have been showing pressures as low as the 950’s and 960’s near any landfall and wind will certainly be nowhere near those levels 

The board is going to go full blown weenie mode by Wednesday 

0.08” yesterday for a 3 day total of 1.86”

Margot looks like a hurricane this morning. Think we’ll see an update at 11. The activity continues 

Recon is showing signs of a double wind maximum 

Lee keeps trying, but I think a combination of done pesky dry air and possibly some remnant shear keep plaguing the system keeping it in check 

GFS with the Isabel redux 

Looks ready to pop open an eye at any moment