NorthHillsWx

30 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I guess the Euro isn't going to run after all. 

EURO is a major snowstorm for central/eastern NC and SE VA. Someone was able to get some panels in the MA forum

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

The misery rain continues here in Raleigh.

Stuck under 40 degrees for two full days with nearly 2” of liquid and all of about 10 min of a wintry mix to show for it. We’ll get our revenge next week when we get 15” of snow though 

Stuck at 38.8. Thought we would’ve made it into the 40’s when the rain stopped but it’s been stuck here for an hour 

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

All 5 periods of a sub -5 AO in Feb back to 1950 had wintry precip on or near those dates in RDU and/or GSO: 2021, 2010 (two periods), 1978, and 1969 fwiw.

 12Z Euro still not started which means it’s at least 35-40 minutes late getting started.

Weenie traffic

So far all 12z guidance has a storm and plentiful cold air available

At a minimum I’m thinking I’ll have good skiing in Virginia next weekend!!! Possibly fresh snow with serious cold. Could possibly have hit the timing jackpot for an east coast family ski trip 

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

The GFS is much faster, not allowing the cold air to get established. It's all about timing

^^^This. Overall looks at H5 are very similar. Oz GFS was much slower and allowed 1030+ heights to build into Virginia pre-storm which brought in the cold air before the storm. Very much like the Canadian. There isn’t that much difference in setup.

CMC is almost a carbon copy of 0z GFS lol

Oh Canada!!!!

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON looks like it’s going to be a big storm 

Kinda fizzles but it’s a nice gulf low track with snow in the northern half of NC and ice south into South Carolina. Might be wrapping up some too as it gets into Atlantic. Definitely close 

ICON looks like it’s going to be a big storm 

As miserable as it is, this is the perfect drought busting rain. Not too heavy and steady. We’re at 1.25” and counting

Euro insists on a late bloomer. 6z GFS was suppressed with the main wave (snow for coast) and too warm on the initial wave, but still has the storm.

We continued dropping through the night. Currently 33.6 with 1.14” of rain and absolutely pouring

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z CMC fwiw: much further N than GFS

 

True but for D8, that’s very good agreement. And it’s way south from its 12z run… like way south

GFS keeps central NC below freezing from 12z on the 19th through 18z on the 23rd. 

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It looks amazing for many in the SE and would be the biggest storm for most of NC/SC and far N GA. But always be wary about the favored NW trend, especially because this is still 8-9 days away. Any thoughts about that? Will the preceding potential -5 AO combined with a solid +PNA minimize any NW trend?

Always fear the NW trend but as depicted the high in the Midwest could not be better positioned and strengthening heights 1030+ north of us with a mid level flow that’s more sw/ne oriented, the chance this cuts would be minimal. That’s textbook cold air transport and really a classic miller A look. We need to watch the trend on model runs to keep building heights north of us to keep northerly progression limited. But that’s a textbook Carolina’s snowstorm setup. This pattern is SCREAMING a storm and now we can see the potential. Cold air transport always the #1 thing to look for and oh baby is it there

CMC with a very similar look…

15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Incoming on GFS…

As I said 

Just now, WiseWeather said:

If you were wondering… yes i will take 19 inches of snow.


.

I too, will take my 21.3 and call it a season

We’re talking low 20’s and heavy snow in central NC in late February. Dream run, still snowing 

HOLY MOLY lol

Incoming on GFS…

We’re now down to 34.5 with right around 1/2” of rainfall. If only this was snow 

13 minutes ago, jburns said:

Yeah boy.  That’s less than 40 model runs.  Each.  What could go wrong.

I mean just from a weather discussion standpoint. Absolutely not banking on a storm but we get 3 months a year to talk winter weather and actually have a favorable pattern with storms showing up and no one wants to talk lol. 8 days out on GFS