NorthHillsWx

ICON looks like it’s going to be a big storm 

As miserable as it is, this is the perfect drought busting rain. Not too heavy and steady. We’re at 1.25” and counting

Euro insists on a late bloomer. 6z GFS was suppressed with the main wave (snow for coast) and too warm on the initial wave, but still has the storm.

We continued dropping through the night. Currently 33.6 with 1.14” of rain and absolutely pouring

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z CMC fwiw: much further N than GFS

 

True but for D8, that’s very good agreement. And it’s way south from its 12z run… like way south

GFS keeps central NC below freezing from 12z on the 19th through 18z on the 23rd. 

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It looks amazing for many in the SE and would be the biggest storm for most of NC/SC and far N GA. But always be wary about the favored NW trend, especially because this is still 8-9 days away. Any thoughts about that? Will the preceding potential -5 AO combined with a solid +PNA minimize any NW trend?

Always fear the NW trend but as depicted the high in the Midwest could not be better positioned and strengthening heights 1030+ north of us with a mid level flow that’s more sw/ne oriented, the chance this cuts would be minimal. That’s textbook cold air transport and really a classic miller A look. We need to watch the trend on model runs to keep building heights north of us to keep northerly progression limited. But that’s a textbook Carolina’s snowstorm setup. This pattern is SCREAMING a storm and now we can see the potential. Cold air transport always the #1 thing to look for and oh baby is it there

CMC with a very similar look…

15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Incoming on GFS…

As I said 

Just now, WiseWeather said:

If you were wondering… yes i will take 19 inches of snow.


.

I too, will take my 21.3 and call it a season

We’re talking low 20’s and heavy snow in central NC in late February. Dream run, still snowing 

HOLY MOLY lol

Incoming on GFS…

We’re now down to 34.5 with right around 1/2” of rainfall. If only this was snow 

13 minutes ago, jburns said:

Yeah boy.  That’s less than 40 model runs.  Each.  What could go wrong.

I mean just from a weather discussion standpoint. Absolutely not banking on a storm but we get 3 months a year to talk winter weather and actually have a favorable pattern with storms showing up and no one wants to talk lol. 8 days out on GFS

I’ve been watching this one from afar, but GFS for the win on this system 

Congrats from the southerners. Looks like a hell of an event between DC and Fredericksburg. Wouldn’t be shocked to see some 15” totals if that banding keeps up overnight. DC looks locked in for a very solid snowfall 

We’ve actually continued to fall through the day. Down to 35.7 after a midnight high of 38.8

If only this was south DC, they are getting absolutely blasted tonight. Some areas will see 12-15” I believe 

One wild thing about that run is it keeps RDU below freezing from the 19th-22nd. I know a lot of that is projected snowpack but still, this is Barney cold for late February 

Im shocked more people aren’t on here. We’re inside 10 days and have a great storm signal with substantial cold air

Happy hour GFS is delivering the goods

DC sure looks like it’s going to get raked by that band. Southern suburbs might be the jackpot zone. I used to live in Alexandria, that is probably a good place to be this evening

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Still sitting at 32.5° at my house right now. Waiting to see how far that temperature gets at or below freezing to see how much ice we get tonight. Right now it's just a cold rain with the temperature barely above freezing

That sounds horrible

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s GEFS based AO forecast is even more impressive for 2/15-18 as it suggests a dip to ~-5 is quite possible then! That would be lowest daily AO since 2/10-11/2021! Other Feb sub -5 AOs since 1950 were only these:

-2/10-11/2021 (-5.285 on 2/10) (weak +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/14/2010 (-5.132) (moderate +PNA, MJO moderate 8)

-2/6-7/2010 (-5.205 on 2/6) (strong +PNA, MJO moderate 7)

-2/5-6/1978 (-5.291 on 2/5, lowest Feb AO on record) (strong +PNA, MJO strong 7)

-2/13-16/1969 (-5.282 on 2/13)(neutral PNA, MJO unknown)

 

At the same time the PNA could be nearing +1:

 

At same time, MJO could be in moderate phase  8:

 

Stop it, I can only get so aroused 

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like the Op, hopefully it’s not skewing it and that’s just indicative of a lot of alignment of individual members!!!