NorthHillsWx

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

12z CMC also likes southern / coastal areas for 10/11

It didn’t have the storm before this run so that’s a win

20 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is the potential the pattern has. First low sacrificed, beautiful 50/50 low ensues and we get a strike underneath. 

I will do whatever ritualistic sacrifice the snow gods demand for this forum to see the 12z GFS into fruition 

I mean my god. Model run for the ages. That’s a blizzard under the deformation band too 

Give me sitting on the northern edge of that snow band at this range all day knowing the trend that inevitably will come but I’ll take a 987 off Wilmington all day

My god. It’s beautiful. Slightly south. But beautiful 

Might relocate my family to Shreveport to see some snow 

Canadian is an absolutely crippling ice storm for the favored CAD regions

This is noise at this point but as modeled at 6z, that GLL really messes with the BL temps for the Jan 9-11 system. Not enough to rain but it cuts off the arctic feed we’d been seeing in many previous runs. 

It’s crazy how much models have backed off on the cold, regardless of snow chances. 

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

But the 06z GFS

Ejects the SW earlier and we get a quicker phase. Jan 10 miller A with snow through the Deep South and most of Carolina’s. Haven’t seen a storm track like that in many a moon

Euro is downright ugly 

RDU smoked. Beautiful. Miller A. Perfect Track. We gladly take. Lock it in!!!

INCOMING on the 11th

This GFS run is what I’d expect from the pattern. This was not a southern storm but it’s too cold before to avoid ice. Lots of watching to go but I still feel strongly this will be a CAD mixed event. Duration and impact obviously TBD

RDU will pick up 0.10” 1 hour before we otherwise would break the record and that will be it for the year. Don’t get to claim the record and don’t get enough to cover the mulch. Bank on it. 

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z GEFS has less for most areas vs recent runs though still notable amounts N GA and much of Carolinas:

This is a case where a stronger cutter would actually benefit us down the road setting up the 50/50 further west. I’m not sure these southern trends with the first system help us down the road. Might lead to an all or nothing situation with the first storm which we’d like to avoid at all costs

Just now, BooneWX said:

I hope this isn’t a trend but the Euro Ens was much further east with our trough axis mid month. Resembled early Dec more than anything. 

Yep. Not ideal

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 12Z GFS is still another model suggesting a wintry threat to the Gulf coast/deep SE after the initial storm. This is actually from an even later 3rd wave (Jan 11-12) as the 2nd wave dampens out with nothing wintry in the SE. To put this into perspective (the details fwiw since this is way out on days 11-12), these amounts from FL Panhandle to Charleston would be mainly 2-5 times these areas’ normal annual amounts, which are only 0.1-0.5” due to no measurable wintry in most years:

This is the pattern those areas need to score. Actual suppression with true Arctic air

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is close with that overrunning moisture. If it comes over WNC it could lay down a couple inches or snow 

EURO is really close. It wants to smoke someone wherever that overrunning finger sets up. 

It may just be noise but all 3 models went south this run at 12z regarding the first storm 

EURO is a giant hit for middle Virginia but is way way south from 6z

Euro looks like it’s coming in much further south this run with the first system 

The system on the 6th is absolutely critical to whatever comes next bc it becomes our 50/50 low. Until the 6th storm is ironed out it’s going to be impossible to figure out the next one. This is a highly volatile period for models with the second storm being totally dependent on the evolution of the first, so that follow up system just being present is all we can ask for. I’d say this whether it was showing a HECS or a miss to the south

I still like the idea of a CAD system on the 6th. I think something between the EURO and GFS. Don’t think this is a snowstorm unfortunately unless it tracks way south which seems to be an outlier idea at the moment but given the antecedent airmass and HP over NE I doubt the system is all rain 

If we got the 6th system I would be rooting hard for the extreme southern folks and coastal Carolina’s to cash in on the 10th system as my snowpack would be locked in lol