NorthHillsWx

Temps have plummeted to 29.7 here already 

(This topic just turned “hot” for the first time this winter)

Would be fun to get a localized heavier band that overperforms for some areas. Seems possible based on afternoon mesoscale model runs 

25 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I think I am going to head off for Albermarle tonight

 

Good luck. I think it’s the right call and hopefully we get to see some rare piedmont snow footage 

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

NAM and HRRR pretty much agree with it being centered on Albermarle or so. I am debating if it is worthwhile to head that way for such a minor event. The intriguing thing is a meso low could form to the south of that region which could enhance things a bit if that is true.

With it being close you can probably follow radar trends but it occurring at night with bitter cold air moving in gives this a chance to stick if rates materialize. Also, HRRR shows the meso low you’re talking about and that could conceivably cause some heavier rates than otherwise would be expected with such dry air in play. These systems are tricky but can cause a pretty heavy burst of high ratio snow if it gets convective in nature. We’re talking 1/2” ceiling but the potential is there

HRRR is pretty aggressive with the snow band tonight. Definitely could be interesting with extremely cold temps even with light amounts!

28.6 this morning as the big chill arrives today 

Model consensus is actually very high of snow showers making it east of the mountains Tuesday morning. Obviously not much but it could wreck the snowless streaks at several reporting sites and I’m sure anyone would take a pre Christmas dusting 

2.75” monthly total

Down to 28 even this morning. Ground is frozen. Love the crunch 

Definitely a good signal on GEFS too. Lots to watch in the next week but there is potential 

GFS with another massive run. Not all snow but a big time winter storm with lots of cold air 

Finally slipped below freezing. 31.9 right now, also our low temp so far

EDIT: 31.4 was our low temp 

Heck of a thunder event this morning. 0.31” really fast 

39 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Urban heat island and faulty recording station at RDU

Mines not RDU. I wouldn’t say I’m in the heat island but maybe it plays a part but I’ve had the same station for 6 years. I think a lot of the county has south of the lake has yet to reach freezing, don’t think it’s isolated to RDU

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Per 12Z EPS fwiw, this (Gulf Miller A coming across over FL pen. and then offshore SE US with it cold enough to north) on the Euro op. is as one would expect currently only a very low probability scenario: I not surprisingly count only 3 of 50 members with something fairly close in track during a similar timeframe (members 16 and 34 have sig snow like op while member 32 has only very light snow): so only 6% of members. Member 43 track is inland and produces sig snow but further NW. If I count that it’s 4/8% of members.

 Also, member 34 actually has a second further SE tracking Miller A two days later that gives heavy snow to the SE coast similar to the very rare pre-Christmas Dec 1989 and early Jan 2018 historic heavy coastal snowstorms.

 As this period gets closer we’ll see how the various ensembles trend.
 I think this type of analysis is what was requested by 

@olafminesaw

Thanks as always. Good to see at least a few digital snowstorms showing during the window. Very cold air available which has been a rarity last few years

1 hour ago, yotaman said:

Low of 35 with light frost on roof tops, cars, and open grassy areas.

 

Crazy, you’ve been colder than us twice this week

1 hour ago, yotaman said:

The cold is coming next week.

Not soon enough to keep us from breaking the record

Still hasn’t gotten below 34 here. Also haven’t had a serious frost yet. Couple roof toppers but my tomato and pepper garden is still alive. That’s a record for me, getting summer veggies into thanksgiving week

Canadian has a perfect snowstorm setup incoming 

12z GFS coming in very cold 

If we got 1-2” 3 weeks before Christmas I’d be happy as a clam. 

That December 2-5 timeframe has potential. #1 ingredient is involved: cold

Congrats mountain folks, you all deserved this. 

21 hours ago, eyewall said:

We failed to make it down to freezing in Raleigh so it does look like that record will fall.

34.2 here was the low. Think the clouds got us. Sunday morning will feature another chance at freezing

We picked up 0.26” of rain before the front