NorthHillsWx

27.7 this morning. 20s are the norm this winter 

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Idc about the storm itself rn as long as it keeps showing up somewhere in the south on the model runs. All I care about is that big ass high parking itself right where it needs to be. I ain’t doing one of these in-situ messes again. 

Amen

To reel the forum back in, let’s look at where we stand on the Brick storm:

1) there is an incredible storm signal for the 21-23rd timeframe

2) ensemble support is HIGHER than it was at this range with our last system (this is when it started to fade)

3) H5 setup looks much better than the last system and cold air might be fresher

4) Pretty much every run cycle is showing a major winter storm on one of the ops. In my experience this only occurs with the big storms. I’m not saying a big storm is coming, I’m saying models are showing us there is support for a large storm and the pieces of energy to get one are there. Major storms don’t hide their origins. This one has higher end potential and models are showing us just that

5) No can kicking. This timeframe has been steady. We’re into the 1 week out phase. This is important bc we are not talking fantasy land anymore, like when Brick made potentially the call of the millennium 

11 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

More like gluttons for punishment.

More like some of us haven’t seen an inch of snow since 2022 and we’ve jumped into the loony bin 

31 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

We're getting toO exuberant.  The letdown will be painful.

What’s dead may never die

22 minutes ago, suzook said:

Monster storm with 8 days to go. What could go wrong?

Nothing. It’s locked in. Brick reeled this one in from hour 320

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Shall we name this possible storm, The Brick Storm? Lol

Not a chance in hell it gets anything different. I’ve been in contact with the weather channel 

Euro AI also pops a SE death ridge at the end of the run and sends 75 degree temps this way on the 28th. Just a 45 degree difference from the GFS at that time 

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

The Euro AI says don't give up on the Monday system

GFS actually trended closer too

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Way too amped for this range. I like how it was at 0z. But at least it’s still showing something.

The NW trend begins!!! 

1 minute ago, WiseWeather said:

Whatever brick has at the table put it all in.


.

If this storm happens it is going down in history as the Brick storm. Never have I seen such a bullish, foolish, weenie ish call but damn if he might be onto something. 

06z GFS has a massive winter storm for the entire SE. like massive. 

06z GFS about to go boom

30 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yes but the dry ones are mostly misses to the east/south, suppressed. That is a good miss to have at this range.

Most have the storm. That’s all we need for now

27.2 this morning and 53.3 this afternoon. First 50’s of the year 

Need ensembles to tick back up. Happy to still see the storm on some ops runs but a lot of the excitement last couple days was (I know the EURO and GFS mega storm runs reeled in a ton of folks) due to strong ensemble support for the timeframe 

11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yep. ENC keeps getting pounded every run.

Honestly an impressive string of runs for ENC

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Ensemble trends going the wrong direction, the fat lady is warming up...

The “Brick Storm” on life support already on D9

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks a little like the ICON run. Best thing is we have a storm showing up on different models. Plenty of time to iron out the details and there will be lots of back and forth between now and next week.

8-10 days out: pattern recognition. Pattern looks favorable for a winter storm threat. Box checked

4 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Canadian also has a storm...

“SIRI, define overrunning”

54 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This setup actually gives Deep South areas like yours a shot if one of those Siberian 1045+ highs moves into the lakes and not straight down. Cold might overwhelm the storm track for most but it could get unusual areas into a storm chance 

Prophetic 

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS looks good again.

Charleston crusher

33 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

ICON had some wintery precip at the end of the run.

 

Same setup as last week except with a HP in correct spot 

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 A general model cold bias that includes the SE US is always a factor that should be considered because it often (though not always) leads to less cold air verifying vs what is shown, say, 8-10 days out (like what happened last week…keep in mind those extreme runs with widespread single digits to middle teens) and consistent with that storm tracks correcting to reality further NW (like also just happened as instead of offshore the SE coast it was mainly well inland). 
 

 But every case is different. So, we’ll see. For one important thing, how strong will the strongest 1/19-23 Arctic high actually be? If it ends up there’s a 1050ish coming down that maintains itself well into the 1040s for quite awhile and keeping in mind Siberian cold would be involved, that would favor deeper into the SE wintry precip possibilities and thus affect more people though it could also end up dry. I’d rather have the big high and see how it plays out.

This setup actually gives Deep South areas like yours a shot if one of those Siberian 1045+ highs moves into the lakes and not straight down. Cold might overwhelm the storm track for most but it could get unusual areas into a storm chance 

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

He was referring to the 0z run of the monster. At 6z, it's gone. 

Correct. Should have elaborated