NorthHillsWx

Isaac looks like a hurricane this morning. Clearing out an eye. These mid latitude storms are always interesting to me

Flight level winds way up this pass, over 100 kts

John is back from the bed and now explicitly forecast to rapidly intensify into a cat 1 possibly 2 before a second Mexico landfall. This is insane

Everything about this storm is on schedule. It was a 55 kt tropical storm this morning and is a 75 kt hurricane this evening while organizing a core. Once that happens there is literally nothing holding this back from continuing to strengthen, at what pace I’m not sure, but this is a guaranteed 3+. Large core storms aren’t going to spin up 40 kts in 12 hours but this one doing 20 is impressive 

It’s probably been said on here but Atlanta to the upstate and Asheville need to prepare for extended outages and tree damage on top of historic flooding. This is going to be one those areas never forget, sadly. Seems pretty locked in at this point

5pm was one of the more dire sounding advisories you’ll hear from NHC

Me thinks this is going to be storm porn as it relates to a classic looking eye when it peaks. Getting the look already 

As for dry air intrusion- this is totally normal for any developing hurricane. With the lack of shear at present, and the extremely vigorous convection the system is generating, I expect it to be easy to mix out as the core develops. This is a CLASSIC look of a storm primed to go. There is no inhibiting factor at present to prevent steady to rapid intensification. This is on schedule and to be honest that is a terrifying satellite look at this stage

Hurricane upgrade incoming at 11

Tallahassee is going to get smoked and the further west this goes the odds increase that the peak surge will hit a populated beach town. Things are in motion right now that are leading up to a historic and devastating hurricane. Only saving grace is the broad circulation may keep peak winds down just a bit but that will not affect surge potential or inland wind threat one bit. Very disheartening to see the satellite look this morning and know this thing is about to go over the loop current 

Tallahassee might get one of their worst storms 

0.42” last night brings the MTD total to 11.35”. Some areas got much much more

I am confused with the systems organization today. That naked swirl is definitely the COC recon found but there is no reason why is should be going south. It doesn’t appear to be part of a larger cyclonic gyre but I guess that is the only explanation 

I actually think it looks a whole lot better overall. It’s developed banding on the eastern side and on satellite it looks like the thunderstorms have consolidated into a singular mass vs popcorn storms. “Center” is west of main convection but otherwise this looks closer to a TS than last night. Westerly shear is clearly a factor at this stage. So far, Euro seems to be handling development the best. I am not sure early development matters as much. The best conditions this system encounters will be north of Cuba as it parallels the Florida coast. I’d look for a tight COC and a well formed CDO if RI is to happen. Actual strength leaving the carribean will not matter much on the overall ceiling this system has given the POTENTIAL for RI. I’m more concerned with the structure and shear from the upper level system to the west

Over .60” and raining this morning. This brings out total MTD well over 10”. For central and eastern NC it’s fortunate the majority of this hurricanes rains will fall over the western half of the state as we are fully saturated and waterlogged at this point

EDIT: finished with 1.04” here which brings our MTD to an incredible 10.93” with more on the way this week! Cannot imagine a hurricane hitting central NC directly with this kind of saturated ground

Precursor rain event is not ideal. 3-6+ before the storm gets there for some of the mountain areas

Landfall:

105 kts

959 mb

Just now, CTWeatherFreak said:

Look at the cone depiction from 8pm. Its marked as an M at landfall..  On the latest, its not.

They explicitly say it’s forecast to be a major at LF in the discussion. The only change between 5 pm and 11 was guidance has trended down as a whole. I’m taking all intensity guidance with a dump truck worth of salt grains until we get a center. And models initialize correctly. 

What a freaking specimen to hit mainland Mexico while rapidly intensifying. I just cannot believe this happened two years in a row, though John is nowhere near Otis’s historic strength 

1 minute ago, gallopinggertie said:

Is John’s windfield actually as small as it’s shown by the NHC? I can barely make out the hurricane-force winds here. The system doesn’t look like a microcane on satellite imagery to me. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

I got the sense from the NHC discussion that they don't seem very impressed with the system tonight. The discussion to me read rather "meh". Surprising, given the likelihood of a major hurricane landfall. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it (literally).

I do think they probably saw the current state and models trending downward as maybe signs to be slightly less bullish at this time but I literally thought the exact same thing when I read it. IMO the forecast makes sense. There’s no reason to change anything from their track or intensity forecast at this time. 

I haven’t posted in a little while and have been watching this storm develop but have a couple of things to say:

1) models (GFS guilty as charged) have proven to show their bias in developing these CAG systems too quickly. Clearly it’s taking this time to organize, and imo that was expected and models showing this jumping straight to a hurricane were out to lunch 

2) the development signal overall track guidance has been EXCELLENT. I mean it’s been DAYS and the general idea of development and movement haven’t changed and that’s before we even have a named system 

3) intensity forecast is… problematic at best. The ULL to the west and a trough interaction on approach are significant variables that are difficult to forecast. If aligned improperly, both features could impart shear on the system both as it develops and also as it heads towards the coast. However, as the ULL retrogrades NW, it could leave a window with an extremely favorable environment and explosive SST. Models are extremely split on how this interaction plays out.
 

4) I would not take eastern tracks off the table quite yet. The ULL I spoke to earlier is what pulls this westward. The further east this forms, the less of an influence that system will have. Ian is an example where models greatly overestimated the interaction with a ULL in the western GOM and yea, let’s just say those track forecasts were way off. That being said, guidance is extremely and I mean extremely clustered for there being a COC. I guess this is just directed to say not to let your guard down across the entire west coast of Florida.

5) Stop the hype. This isn’t pointed at this forum, but the hype level this storm has received is off the charts. I’ve seen extremely tempered weather folks on social media throwing out HAFS runs showing a 888 catastrophe for Florida while failing to post the 975 cat 1/2 from the next run. Extremely respected Mets seemingly have slurped the kool aid on this one and I can tell you it’s unlike any storm I’ve ever seen before from a social media perspective, considering it’s not even a tangible named system yet.

Frightening situation with John this evening. RI appears to have continued and the storm has popped a pinhole eye. What an amazing occurrence to have two rapidly intensifying hurricanes making landfall in mainland Mexico in back to back years

We picked up 0.33” yesterday morning. 9.89” MTD

22 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Why?

A couple reasons- 1 being the the trough is being modeled as more progressive and slightly stronger so it picks up whatever forms and whisks it to to the NE while imparting strong westerly shear snd 2 the surge of drier air behind the trough is more entrained into the system. Another half-a-storm incoming, if todays modeling proves correct