NorthHillsWx

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Amazing how a perfect pattern progged by ensembles and Weeklies can come completely undone in a few days. We are now looking at a warm last week of February due to no -NAO and the PNA is about to flip to- while the MJO is not wanting to leave phase 7. 

 

It's about time to cue up the we need a March 93 miracle posts..

We need a volcano or maybe even an asteroid strike to break this pattern

it’s crazy to think that if we don’t get snow before Jan 22 of next year, most on this board will have gone a full 3 years without measurable snow. With our last pre-Jan snow being 2018, odds are highly suggestive that will be tested 

As for global warming, sea surface temps are smashing records every year in the Atlantic. Blame it on what you want but that’s the truth. I think that impacts 2 things:

1) SER becomes semi-permanent 

2) Thermals with coastal storms are frequently messed up more so than past analogs for similar tracks would indicate 

Take this weeks storm in New England. It it literally passing over the 40/70 benchmark in their peak climo, and thermals in NYC and most coastal areas are going to struggle. Perfect track New England systems shouldn’t struggle that much, though thankfully for them, the system may be dynamic enough to overcome poor lower levels 

I think the biggest issue is a simple one, we haven’t been able to lock in a favorable HP at all. The NS keeps obliterating every strong high that tries to establish itself regardless of blocking. Believe it or not, we don’t need pure arctic air to snow or get wintry wx east of the mountains. CAD has become a thing of the past, and those storms are our most frequent. Yes we are all searching for the miller A unicorn without thermal issues, but the vast majority of our wintry weather historically has come from miller B mixed bags and overrunning events. Pure Arctic air looks good on paper and long range models but it usually leads to suppression or transient cold shots without a New England high established 

4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Please note that for many on the forum, the first post-6pm sunset occurs this week, and for Atlanta, almost 6:30

Wish there was a “love” button on the reactions. Finally enough light to do something after work. 
 

Currently 61 and actually pretty nice out. About a quarter inch of rain in the bucket from earlier 

Glad everyone got outside yesterday 

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Some local cherry trees blooming. I’m sure the Bradford pears are getting ready. 

It’s another early spring across the triangle. Todays mid 70’s with the rain over next couple days will throw it into overdrive 

We shot up to 77.2 which is our warmest temp to date for the year

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This assessment (bolded) isn’t accurate imo because many GEFS runs (and GEPS for that matter) had until recently been showing a large % of members with wintry precip over the non-mountain SE as I had posted about. There were quite a few GEFS with 2/3-3/4 of members doing so and with ~30-50% even down in GA/SC/FL due to numerous having suppressed southern sliders. I was even counting the # with wintry in N FL with many runs having 3-5 members and 1 having an amazing 10 (33%) with wintry, unheard of that far out. Also, for a number of days, more than 50% of GFS runs had significant wintry somewhere in the non-mountain SE. My posts are all there for the record if anyone doesn’t recall these %s. That’s one of the reasons I post details about model/end runs. I’m thinking ahead to if/when folks want to look back.

That was a more of IMBY comment. I seriously discredited the Florida solutions and never once thought that was realistic. For NC, it was paltry. If we’re talking about the region as a whole, yes you could find a solid number showing wintry precipitation somewhere but it seemed either to be overly suppressed or too warm with little in between solutions which is why I favored the latter. There didn’t seem to be a path to victory HERE that was well advertised by a large % of ensemble members 

19 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Is there a verification score for things such as ensembles and weeklies like the OP model runs have? Obviously there would have to be margin of error factored in considering the timeframe from hour 0, but I think it's been (3?) times this winter everyone was talking about the weeklies constantly getting colder three weeks out just for it to disappear right when op runs were starting to get within that timeframe (I've spent less time on ensembles this winter compared to normal, so not really sure how they've overall panned out)

Great question, I don’t know. Ensembles as you know are variable as always and you clearly have model tendencies but they’ve been pretty consistent in showing limited winter wx opportunities throughout the winter. I’d actually say ops this season have been more excited for some fantasy storms than you’d expect looking at their ensemble charts

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Yea I’m not even trying to bash the winter. I’m just sick of not being allowed to talk about the weather in the mid range thread if it doesn’t fit the cold/snowy narrative folks want. Weather is weather and I love it year around. People who don’t want anything other than pro-snow comments being made can touch grass.

Agreed. I pointed holes in this pattern as soon as it reached ensemble range and nothing was showing. It was the PUSU phase. I was told it was too volatile for models or too much energy was flying around to have any clue what was going to happen. Weeklies are THE WORST forecast tool we have yet some kept pointing to them over ensembles 

Just now, BooneWX said:

Gotta talk here more since the only damn comments in the main thread that are allowed are ones where we ignorantly wish cast a snowy winter. 

For bashing of this winter

25 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

If yall want to argue climate change then make a thread.  Please keep it out of the mid range thread please.  

20 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I agree completely.  Would also add not to bring it up as a contributing factor here either.  Blame what's happening in the forecast models (Plenty showing on those currently to go around  )

I started a thread for bashing of this winter. Let the discussion begin 

With winter on the ropes and the main threads descending into climate change discussions, finger pointing and long range Icon hope, let’s discuss how this winter failed so miserably. Was it poor model performance, over-hyping ENSO, bad luck, climate change, reliance on analogs or some combination of everything? Let’s dive in and leave the main board for actual forecast discussion and the sanitarium for, well, the folks who need it. What better time to discuss a winter failure than on February 10 while it feels like 80 outside and our “best look in years” collapsed in 18 hours of disastrous model runs!

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I said I would give it 3 weeks but its over. 

You have completed the 5 stages of winter grief over the last 24 hours. Congrats!

22 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Geez!  Everything is not climate change.  You think they are up in the Sierra Nevada's right now grousing about lack of snow and some sort of climate change responsibility.  Or deep dark Siberia? Unless of course you want to blame their excessive snow on climate change then I have no faith in the blame claim game here. You can attribute every abnormal or foul weather event to climate change.  Makes it easy and convenient for the cc evangelists out there.   Can we blame good comfortable weather stretches on climate change too?  Maybe just pick any event in life that is not perfect. "Hey, woke up constipated this morning.  I blame climate change."

While it’s not all climate change, throwing out places that have a buffer and don’t struggle to get to freezing for snow as evidence is a poor argument. If you were 20 degrees and now you’re 25 it doesn’t matter. When we struggle to get to 32-34 for snow as is, it’s a much bigger deal even if you’re a degree or two warmer 

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

I’m not mad a bit. Going fishing later!

Yep I’m taking my daughter to the farm right now. Spring has sprung 

We might push 80 today if we keep the sun. Already a humid 70 out at 11

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yep. Most folks in the foothills and western piedmont are about a month away from their longest snowless streak ever. 

And to take it a step further bc the bar for being “measurable” is so small, if you add up RDUs cumulative TOTAL snow over the last 6 years (assuming this year is 0.00”) then the total amount from that entire time period is right around our yearly average. So even though we did have measurable snow in 4 of those 6 years, the amounts were tiny 

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We had similar stretches in the 90s. It’s about perspective. I’d buy in if we EVER got the teleconnections to line up, but we just haven’t rolled a good roll. 

I may be wrong but I think if we don’t get snow before January next year this will be the longest stretch in recorded history without measurable snow for a lot of folks 

I don’t ever want another El Niño winter ever. Having to wait until March 28th for my backloaded season is testing my patience! Bring on La Niña, I’m sure we’ll win early and win often then! 

I’m taking the kids out to the farm today, perfect day to get out before the rain 

9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Climate change/global warming at its finest. It is what it is.

You see the analog years and we just keep setting new precedents for failure. A part of climate change that may lock us out of consistent winter weather in the future may be the supercharged northern stream. Going back to La Niña this year is going to sting when winter forecasts come out this season and pile it up with the previous closing in on a decade winters of failure and a trend is emerging 

This thread offers more accurate forecasts than the actual forecasting thread 

Epic epic fail for long range models and teleconnection forecasts. Hard to be rock steady for a month then crack the week of. I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago.