NorthHillsWx

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

The weeklies had done pretty good until we hit the later half of January then they just latched onto the non existing blocking.  I do know there is another SSW coming soon but we will see. 

They’re great when they predict above average temps bc that’ll give you a 90% hit rate these days

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 For the purpose of making the readers laugh and not to be taken seriously, the Euro Bleaklies have for March a mild first third, a short transition, and then a cold last half due to a combo of +PNA/Aleutian Low and a strong -NAO/-AO. I feel like I’m having deja vu all over again as Yogi Bera would say. Don’t shoot the messenger as I’m just messaging the super important inaccurate Bleaklies. Nothing much else is happening anyway.

Weeklies are as trustworthy as my high school girlfriend 

There’s a small sliver, roughly the mason Dixon line to eastern PA, of the east coast that’s done well this winter. Other than that, pretty much the entire east coast has shared in the misery. Parts of the MA had a great week in January and Connecticut had localized jackpots from a coastal storm recently but the vast majority of the east coast is in this same snow drought. I wonder if those years noted above featured failures for the entire east coast such as this has or if it was more regional to the southeast 

The fact hours 210-318 on the 06z GFS are all rain illustrates why some doubt it will ever snow again. 1040 high moving into Maine with a trailing wave, blocking, and coastal development with precip back to mountains. Not even a pixel of digital blue. It requires more stars to align for snow here now than for the panthers to win a Super Bowl 

1 hour ago, NC DataDude said:

 

Seems attainable 

20 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Highlands?  That's in NC, although there is the very thin strip of Mts in Greenville, Pickens, and Oconee counties...

Foothills, whatever you want to call them 

2 hours ago, Snow dog said:

Here’s how bad it’s been for the SC folks…

 

https://wyff4.com/article/south-carolina-only-state-no-snow/46860399

 

That’s hilarious. I cannot believe the highlands couldn’t even buy a rogue snow shower dusting during one of the many upslope events NC has gotten 

So far at RDU, 14 of the first 19 days have been above average for high temps this month, including two days where the daily low temp stayed above the average high temp for the date. Only saving grace has been it’s been relatively dry meaning we’ve had some phenomenal weather days. But we’ve been so far removed from even thinking about snow besides on a weather forum it’s literally become a pipe dream around here

Low of 28.1 this morning 

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

This hurricane season could be nuts. Sea surface temps in the MDR are comparable to what we typically see in June. I don’t doubt that the same Mets who were throwing out analogs like 2010 for this winter will be screaming “2005” for hurricane season soon  but they may be right this time or at least closer to correct. 

I feel like NC and most of the Atlantic seaboard has gotten exceptionally lucky since Florence. I have a gut feeling that changes this year. Everything screams an exceptionally bad season for the basin 

35 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

https://www.usanpn.org/data/maps/spring
 

looks like we’re about 10 days ahead of normal 

Not terrible. Last year we had leaves out before March 

4 hours ago, jpbart said:

The perfect set up for the March killing frost.  Ah life in the south.

It doesn’t seem to be that far ahead here compared to normal. That being said, the last few Februarys have been so warm that maybe it’s skewing what normal is… Blooms on most flowering trees but nothing popped yet 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Is being below freezing this morning the pattern change?

13 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Overcast and cold.  This is your winter 2024 snow day.  A real dry bob.

 

Watching that slug of moisture going from the gulf out into the Atlantic is extremely frustrating. I’ll call the opaque sky and 30’s a win this year, closest thing to snow we’ve had this year smdh

The 23-24 may be worth watching. EURO isn’t that far off. Need the low in MW to dig more but I’ve seen this evolution work out before. 

One other symptom I believe we’re seeing of a warm Atlantic has played out in the MA and NE over the last week. They got a perfect track coastal storm and, other than a few bands where rates overcame BL temps, most areas struggled to accumulate. Boston was mostly rain from a storm traveling south of the 40/70 benchmark in mid February! You cannot tell me that the sst anomaly along the east coast wasn’t at least partly to blame for the outcome of that system in areas where the flow came off the water. Now for the flip side- this clipper that just went through. Without any coastal influences and no coastal flow, it was able to produce a stripe of snow from 8-14” from the Midwest to the coast. In fact, even areas outside the band were able to accumulate efficiently. I know the DC area got screwed but that was mostly due to the storm track and lack of precip in that area. 
 

My point is this: both of those were borderline BL temp setups and one was far more efficient at producing snow than the other. Down here, EVERY event just about is borderline, and given the same setup as they experienced, that 2-3 degree coastal influence due to excessively warm sst can be the difference between what, given normal sst, would be a winter storm vs a rainstorm. Just pretty wild to see in many regards a clipper outperform a juiced up coastal in prime climo in NE

2 hours ago, CaryWx said:

closer to what exactly?

The coast/being something interesting. Grasping at straws 

For what it’s worth, 18z GFS inched closer again 

CPCs march-may outlook says above average temps and precip. Sounds like a early spring 

Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC 

Jan 2000 will never be topped in central NC. From the blown forecast of almost no snow when we went to bed to waking up to nearly 2 ft, plus just the ridiculous rates that continued into daylight. There were several storms that year too. That’s what made me a weenie, that and hurricane Fran 4 years earlier. The top two weather events of my life in a 4 year span. The Christmas snow is on up there, as is the near foot of snow we got in 2002. The 2002 snow was memorable as I was at a hurricane’s game when it started and I remember Greg Fischel coming on the Jumbotron doing a weather update saying snow had arrived earlier and forecast amounts had increased. We left after the game and walked out to a winter wonderland, whereas it was bare outside when we went in.

57 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I believe being blanked two winters in a row would be a first for Raleigh.

I think someone pulled two other instances of it earlier but we’re getting very close to our record. Also, I bet those other blankings featured some sort of ice or storms nearby. It’s the complete lack of ANYTHING remotely close that blows me away. Not even Greensboro or Roxboro has had snow in this period. From that perspective, this feels unprecedented. I mean 2 years in a row and not a single system inside 5 days to track, it feels about as close to snowing here as it’s been in Tampa Florida during this time 

@GaWxis out for the season. That’s the equivalent of the fat lady singing loud enough for all to hear 

1 hour ago, marsman said:

Too bad you missed Feb 2003 in DC. Was some severe Milk, Bread, and TP going on. I remember having to shovel out my clothes dryer exhaust from a 4' drift next to the house. It was the first time I teleworked. Also remember a sleet storm in either 06 or 07. It was like walking through beach sand.

I know, I missed the 2003 storm and “snowmaggedon” both by a year! That sleet storm was one of the wildest winter storms I’ve ever seen though. I think it was 6-7” of pure sleet and turned into a glacier that stuck around through March 

There was another storm, can’t remember the year, but we were supposed to get rain, then they issued an advisory for 1-3” but it was still supposed to switch to rain early, then the day of it just kept snowing aggregates and they upped us to a warning after we had probably 6” otg. Idk what the final tally was but it was super exciting and unexpected 

56 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s funny, when I was in DC in 2008, the phrase was DC now has the climate of Raleigh. Then 2009/10 happened.

I lived in DC 2004-2008 and can tell you no matter what they say, they did not have Raleigh’s climo. We had multiple snows every year, clipper snows, two really big snows and the most sleet I’ve ever seen from a storm. 

Weeds have sprung.