NorthHillsWx

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 And now today's 0Z EPS mean not only went back to a strong/large high in SW Canada on 3/7-8 like on the run from 24 hours ago, it has SE ridging unlike on any earlier EPS disappear on March 8th (the last AN SE day). There is none the rest of the run as BN temperatures take over, making it easily the coldest EPS yet for March 9th+ in the E US.

 This run will be the one used by the Weeklies later today. What will be notable is that the week Mar 6-13 will be significantly colder in the E US than what the prior Weeklies had. Will the 12Z run again backtrack? It certainly wouldn't surprise me if it does for the 2nd week in March since this run was so much different from prior runs.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z EPS mean backed off a good bit from the prior EPS trend of a higher SLP peak in SW Canada for ~3/8. The 0Z had as mentioned a very impressive and rarely seen on day 10 of the EPS 1046 mb along with 20% of the members with a record high SW Canada SLP for March. The 12Z has only 1041 with increased troughing just off the west coast. This lead to lower SLP and thus not as cold in the Midwest.

*Corrected typo

In other words: here we go again. Cold ain’t making it to the SE in time, if at all.

6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

They're definitely coming into better agreement the past 24 hours or so, closer to the more persistent GFS and what most of the other guidance was showing last week. The stronger solutions are very close to setting low pressure records across the Miss./Tenn./Ohio Valleys and have super outbreak written all over them. 12Z EPS and low pressure records below:

Completely caved to GFS this run. Crazy how poor the Euro has been this season 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Wash, rinse, repeat:
n

Huge differences between GFS and EURO/CMC camps. No change to our weather but model handling of that system has been terrible 

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Icon and CMC both with 2 runs in a row of a Snowstorm next weekend in Northern NC/Southern VA. Gfs just rain and Euro was a central VA Snowstorm. Just something to watch.

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Significant upside with this system but two totally different camps. It does have a significant -NAO and there is cold air north of it. Good sign for a major storm across guidance but obviously a lot needs to go right for something other than cold rain and I don’t discount the GFS inland track at all 

SER is now a permanent fixture. I’m sure we’ll see 90’s in March while New England freezes

Probably the first time since NWS started issuing products the entire RAH forecast area went an entire winter without even a WWA issued 

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Would be nice not to have to use the AC until April for once. 

Had to turn it on yesterday. Upstairs was 75, too hot for me

49 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Doesn’t that indicate only 0 to -5? Average highs by March 23 are 66 at RDU. What does that get done?

Highs in the 50’s instead of 60’s 

Might be the first snowless (measurable) winter of my life 

80.7 today

2 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Well...if we don't officially reach 80, there's still a statistical chance for snow this year. 

GFS gets us out to March 10 and it never gets to freezing in the Carolina’s. Might be hard pressed to get a frost, much less a snow 

Forecast highs are really coming down for tomorrow across a lot of piedmont areas due to increased cloud cover and slightly decreased heights with SER a little east. Some CAMs keep temps around 70 for the better part of the day. Today looks like a lock to get into the upper 70’s-lower 80’s south but it would be a significant miss tomorrow if temps stay around 70 from all the hype of the previous week.

34 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It sounds crazy after the warmth late this week, but gotta still watch this coming Saturday for a little light freezing precip, with the high locked in and moisture running along the a warm front.

With that look in late February one would usually expect a solid CAD event but under the curtains it’s still too warm for most everyone 

12z GFS gets no areas outside of the mountains and south of Virginia below freezing through March 8 (end of run). Very bad setup for early spring growth and costly freezes down the line

30 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Every cold shot this winter, even the Christmas cold to an extent, was a pretty quick in and out.  The cold would become less and less on the models as we got closer to verification time, and the "cold" (what little there was) was almost immediately flushed out.  Even the cold from this past weekend only lasted 24 hours or so.  It seems the PNA is probably the most important piece of the puzzle.  Not absolutely required, but without it, you're pretty close to having to thread the needle to get any kind of winter event.  Just look at the snow maps over the next 10 days and it seems pretty obvious that pacific air is just ripping across the southern 2/3's of the country.  Until the PNA approaches neutral (or hopefully goes positive), I think we're out of luck.  A few weeks from now, even the positive PNA won't be enough for many. 

TW  

^^^ over the last 3 years PNA has been the most important teleconnection for our area. Perhaps a flip to Nino will offset some of the influence of -PNA in ways that lead to less of the above. 

Cutting my grass for the first time in 2023 today! Hopefully Wednesday and Thursday we smash some record highs 

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is the winter from hell for many areas.  I'm up to a whopping 0.2 here in NYC.

Outside of Buffalo and Maine, pretty much everyone in the east is sharing the misery this year 

RAH now has my forecast high up to 89 degrees for Thursday. Not only would this shatter the daily record high, but also the highest temp EVER recorded for RDU for the entire month (84). If we broke the record high for the month by 5 degrees,  this would have to be one of the most dramatic smashing of a monthly temp record ever for the site.

Also, with no mitigating factors for a record high temp event in central NC Thursday, another very important record may be in jeopardy: first 90 degree day. The earliest first 90 degree temp at RDU is March 12. This would shatter that record set in 1990.

Seriously impressive heat for mid-late February coming this week in a historic early season heat wave

Mid 80’s this week and folks are still trying to sniff out snow. It’s over folks, not that it ever even began 

Grass needs mowing and trees are budding. It’s spring time folks. Maybe we get a freak snow event but winter is over 

25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If anyone outside of the mountains sees snow this dreadful winter, I will eat my hat. It’s time for spring.

Watch us get some crap white rain event in mid March that leads to 25 pages of posts and then some whitened mulch. That would send this winter out in the style it deserves 

December 2018 was the last time my street was plowed. That shows the kind of rut we’re in. 

11 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

Where did everybody go?  

They’ll be back here shortly 

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I honestly don't even buy the freezing rain potential. It will end up being 36 and rain.. it never fails. What a freakin year. 

I don’t buy it at all. It’s just simply not cold enough for freezing rain and it will now be falling in daylight. I had held out hope that folks outside of the mountains would get a decent thump and it looked very promising as recently as 12z yesterday but models have trended:

1) Even slower. Now a daytime event Sunday and it gives the cool pool everyone outside the mountains is totally relying on more time to moderate

2) much drier in deform area. Mid levels dry out when you’d think precip would be solid and you end up with no snow to bring cold air down, a huge issue with temps 

3) Further NW with low tracking inland 

4) Presence of the dreaded warm nose

Im not saying it’s impossible someone gets lucky but it would seem this threat is dead outside the mountains and even there the snow potential seems half of what it was yesterday through 12z