NorthHillsWx

Just now, WarmNoseHater said:

i would like to know what Brick does for work that allows him to spend his entire week here tracking this. 

Brick tool work off for 10 days after he sniffed this storm out at hour 320 a week ago

Hey, the longggg range NAM looks more like the Canadian than the EURO. We’re good y’all 

21 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

.

I was living in Greenville for that one. Remember watching the sleet and thinking it would switch for hours. It finally did but we wasted 1/2 the storm on sleet. Think we got 4-5” but way less than the 8-10” forecast. Still a great storm and a great winter that way.

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Moving towards the UK runs and maybe even the Canadian.

If Raleigh got 0.8” of precip with those temps…. happy happy happy

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It must be DCs winter to get snow. 

And on their forum you’d think they were in Raleigh’s snow drought… They are pretty much guaranteed to finish the winter above their climo and with below average temps but if they don’t get a once in 50 year storm it’s a season fail 

We undershot the forecast pretty significantly here. Low of 26.7. Pretty long streak of below freezing nights. This has been impressive cold wall to wall through January so far 

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Funny that yesterday we had the EPS and not the GFS now it’s flipped. Tough to get the band together.

I know right?!?! That’s kind of giving me hope bc the two suites that at some point have shown snowless solutions have also been the most inconsistent. 

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Are we sure these are trends nw or just better precip coverage? Seems more like the latter to me. 

GFS is a couple hundred miles NW with the LP than where it was at 18z yesterday 

If the Canadian scores a coup here we will need to remember that for future tracking when we have a real Arctic airmass pressing like this one. It feels like that model always wants to create an Arctic airmass out of whatever cold is available and that causes it to always be a cold outlier. Maybe actually working with an Arctic airmass like this one it verifies better. Of all guidance it has by far been the most consistent here. Definitely an interesting development especially after seeing the GFS trend towards it after going far away the last two days. 

I’ll say this, if I was in the bullseye of snow RN with the NW trends on GFS and to an extent Euro at this range, I’d be pretty nervous. Only thing giving me pause for real hope is EPS doesn’t have that many solutions more NW, making it feel like the NW trend might be limited here. GFS, Canadian, and UK isn’t a terrible camp to be in but EPS needs to hop on board or it kinda feels like fools gold. Thankfully there’s still time. Today and tomorrow will be important to see actual trends develop. Model variance isn’t even close to where it was this time yesterday so models are definitely coming into alignment on the general idea of the storm 

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Need EURO onboard but nice seeing GFS coming home 

This is an outside the coast comment. If you’re on the coast you have to feel great at this point

Need EURO onboard but nice seeing GFS coming home 

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

You've been tracking this thing longer than your average Vegas marriage! Gotta take a break from time to time.

He’s not breaking until he’s shoveling 15” of wake county powder this week 

Gfs has trended west pretty far last few runs (after it revived the storm)

Icon looks much more suppressed than 12z

We’ve reached the “bet on the the Canadian/Icon over the GFS/EURO” phase of tracking here. In layman’s terms, we’re cooked

CMC would feed families! 

GFS better. It has the storm again. Doesn’t completely trap that Baja low

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Did the Euro take a step towards the GFS in terms of holding back the energy, or is it simply suppressed and so we kind of have three scenarios?

Euro had the storm but was suppressed. EPS actually very good. GFS only model without the storm. GEFS better than Op but ticked down for most

We’ve reached a crossroads with the models. The 21-22nd system is our snow chance. The second system is charging into a stale retreating airmsss and will not work for most outside the mountains. GFS isn’t even suppressed, it hangs the energy back up and doesn’t even have a storm. If that happens, there’s no NW trend to root for, this is DOA. Better hope other models are right because the GFS is going the wrong way in a hurry 

GFS has lost the first storm. Second storm is a mixed bag to rain for most. Joy

GFS doesn’t even show wave 1 this run 

49 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We are 7 days away from this event and yall think the models have this laid out already? Good luck with that. Again and Again we have seen major changes just 2 to 3 days before a storm hits.  Don't get sucked in or out at the long lead time.  

7 days? More like 5 

Coldest morning since Jan 2022 at my house. We’ll see where we bottom out

EDIT: 17.1 was the lowest we got

If I’m in the western Carolinas or Virginia I’m probably starting to sweat this one. If I’m in the Deep South or central/eastern Carolina’s I feel pretty good still. Suppressed I can deal with but a flat lifeless wave isn’t going to work for anyone. We’re at the stage now where trends matter. The trend is definitely a little more flat and suppressed. We’ll see if that stops. Having both the GFS and Euro on outside looking in is not good. EPS has been fairly rock solid though. Today will be interesting