NorthHillsWx

I’ve just boarded my flight to Denver. Supposed to land in RDU at 11. Flight is still on time. We’ll see…

Serious surge flooding in ocean isle North Carolina right now. A buddy’s ring cam had water halfway up their first story door. 

Getting numerous gusts over hurricane force in South Carolina now

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I'm not sure why there are comments on the radar appearance. Looks to me like Ian is about to close off its eye again and the band heading north east looks formidable.

My comment is based on the dry slot just east of the inner core, the lack of anything on the backside, and the restricted outflow on satellite. I am by no means saying Ian is weakening, but these are all signs of the storm having peaked or being near peak. 

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected? 

Definitely looks to be moving north. These small wobbles can have big impacts in actual landfall location. Still a lot of questions as to where this one will wash ashore

Is anyone else not gawking over the radar/satellite presentation tonight? I know it’s a strong storm but it’s SW side is nowhere near as symmetrical as earlier, it has a ragged eye (remnants of ERC), and it looks like a dry slot is developing east of the core. Satellite is starting to show outflow being restricted to the west and some asymmetrical shape to the CDO. IMO, Ian has peaked. I don’t see why a 5kt increase wouldnt be possible if the eye fully closes but I’m seeing a system that looks past prime this hour

First storm I’ve ever been weenie tagged after suggesting, based on modeling, there’s a way for this storm to not be a destructive US landfall that would kill many people and cause billions in damage…

If I’m a storm chaser I’m finding a way to get to western Cuba. 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This one seems to be a mess for emergency managers along the coast that need to start getting people ready now. 

Couldn’t agree more. A sharp angle of approach, a major city, uncertain intensity at Landfall, and a major hurricane sitting a stones throw off the beach. The destructive potential is extremely high but the bust potential especially in the public eye is as high as it gets. Glad I’m not making those decisions 

As far as flooding goes, the western Carolina’s may actually have the higher risk as an overrunning event sets up with moisture from Ian being sheared north. The easterly flow from the circulation against the mountains would further enhance rainfall for east facing slopes. These can be very significant events for that part of the south especially with a tropical system interacting with a boundary providing increased lift over a large area. 

Regarding the doom and gloom posts, a storm moving slowly 100 miles off the coast will not drive catastrophic surge into the coast. Water rise and wave buildup? Sure. Major surge? No. You need the wind energy driving the water inland. I’m not mitigating the threat, but if that Euro run verifies, everyone should breathe a sigh of relief in Tampa. 
 

Other good news, a major system slowing down is usually the worst case for rainfall. In this case, Ian is slowing down while being shredded by shear and dry air. This looks to rip most of the moisture north of the circulation. This is not a prime setup for flooding at least in Florida there will likely be a large dry slot east of the center as the circulation injects dry air from the west.

Lastly, as far as windfield goes, I’m not seeing a massive system. This looks to be modeled as a pretty tight core. HWRF, HMON, EURO, GFS all barely skim the west coast of Florida with TS force winds. As it weakens, those winds do expand from the center but by that time I’m really not thinking a large fetch of 35-50 kt winds would be devastating.

Once again, I am not downplaying this system or it’s potential destruction. However, overnight the modeling trend would shed the core of destructive winds and surge west of the peninsula. We need to temper our doom and gloom for this storm if that scenario plays out, which thankfully would spare millions of people a very destructive hit. Still a lot of variables at play but to see the major modeling push west, the current position being SW of where the models that pushed this near or over the Tampa area yesterday, and continued hostile to extreme hostile conditions modeled across the northern GOM, it looks like we may have an “out” to avoid a destructive impact 

GFS depicts a very small system north of Cuba 

NHC explicitly mentioned significant degradation of the storm prior to LF on their discussion, obviously if it goes west of the peninsula.

It’s become strange talking about a storm weakening into a northern gulf landfall after the last few years. This used to be the expectation 

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

HWRF has the most rapid pre landfall weakening I have ever seen modeled, taking it from 120kts down to 55kts in the 24 hours before landfall.

HMON said hold my beer. Takes this from a peak of 140+ kts down to a LF of 35 kts in the 36 hours before landfall. Don’t think I’ve ever seen such model consensus for RI followed by rapid weakening over the northern gulf. That being said, if this peaks 120+ kts it is going to be a gigantic threat, regardless what the models are showing in terms of final LF intensity. My gut says this pulls east and hits the peninsula. The Euro has been relatively steadfast 

HWRF has the most rapid pre landfall weakening I have ever seen modeled, taking it from 120kts down to 55kts in the 24 hours before landfall.

2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I mean is this even a cyclone?

Not based on this recon run

Pretty much all guidance has this peaking about the latitude of Ft meyers. A LF north of there would likely be a weakling storm while somewhere near there would likely be a storm near peak intensity 

Looking like this is trending slower and further west. NHC inching track in this direction.

The basin is dead…

Y’all the eastern side of this storm is no joke per recon and observations from Bermuda! Wow 

This may be the benchmark storm for many coastal areas across a wide stretch of the region. This is not hyperbole either, this thing is a beast and has unanimous support to be an incredible cyclone at landfall. Glad Josh chose to chase this one, I think this will be a historic event

Eerily similar to forecast tracks and intensity for Charley at about this range. At this time yesterday, I did not expect a TD by morning, some were questioning why this was a cherry. Well, this is what happens when a wave already has a defined surface circulation and shear decreases just a little. I am not sure about intensity yet. I think a moderate hurricane (cat 1-2) is likely for SW Florida. There are a lot of negative factors for intensity: dry west flow/shear, land interaction, length of time over water after Cuba. However the extreme SE GOM and NW Caribbean look extremely conducive for strengthening especially with a developing upper level anticyclone as this passes Jamaica. Track guidance certainly seems to be nearing a much more condensed consensus for LF on the SW Florida peninsula. Definitely Tampa’s first significant threat since Charley

I hope Atlantic Canada is treating this appropriately. This is going to be one of their biggest tropical impacts. 

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.

Agree. It’s becoming clear the environment behind the trough will be quite hostile in the northern GOM. Anything “left behind” would likely be weakening, possibly significantly, on approach. Something to watch once we get a defined system