NorthHillsWx

Perry looked like a meat grinder this morning 

https://x.com/icyclone/status/1696922050454028731?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Wind reports seem very underwhelming for a high end cat 3 landfall. I guess part of that could be less populated area it's hitting. I haven't seen anything sustained hurricane wind reports or any gusts of major hurricane force. 

Entirely due to a tiny core of winds (roughly 15 miles diameter of maximum winds with the eroding inner eyewall) and it hitting a WMA instead of a town. Inland gusts rarely reach MH strength even in the worst storms. IDA in particular was able to generate gusts to MH strength well inland but that’s bc the topography of that area is basically an inland sea especially with surge. I have no doubt MH+ winds occurred in a small area near the coast where this thing came ashore. I think we’ll see gusts to 100+ as it starts impacting a few more populated areas and the wind field expands 

6 minutes ago, wendy said:

 

Interesting. I wonder where they were. Maybe those high end velocities didn’t mix down efficiently bc radar showed 130+ mph in the NE eyewall

Radar returns of 60.5 dBZ showing up near Perry!!!! Wow that’s high for a TC

Perry in the center of the NW eyewall 

Just now, MANDA said:

Such an odd radar presentation.   Completely open on southeast side.  That western and northwestern side is a beast.  Perry going to take a hard hit over the next 2 hours.

Look at Tampa radar. I’m not sure it was open on SE side

I think we have landfall 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Winds (the real damaging aspect anyways) should just be within eyewall.  Obviously outside of that will have gusts to hurricane force. 

Charley could be a similar analog (though that storm was slightly stronger) as to what this wind damage corridor will look like. Extreme wind damage to very little just a few miles away

Also, eyewall lighting is picking back up. It sputtered for a minute but this isn’t coming in much below peak at all. Major wind threat inland though from reports it looks like it will be a very narrow corridor

It actually looks like land interaction may have offset or stopped the ERC as the inner eyewall again looks dominant. We saw this with Ida in Louisiana. Interesting stuff going on here. Definitely a high-end 3 making landfall. Radar, sat, velocities all confirm this. Thank god this is coming into a sparsely populated area

130+ mph velocities again. Moving onto coast as I type. They’d decreased some 30 min ago but have picked back up in NE eyewall

Eye might be benefitting from frictional convergence. Donut again from Tampa radar. This is not a rapidly weakening storm like a lot of the gulf halfacanes we used to see. I think this is steady state making landfall after a higher end peak a few hours ago

This thing is like a carbon copy of Michael’s progression to this point. Go back and rewatch a satellite loop of hurricane Michael from its birth as a depression to when it passed west of key west. The resemblance is scary 

The only silver lining from the trends this morning is, if the current track holds, the storm could not have found a much more sparsely populated area than where it’s currently forecast to make landfall 

Based on recon and sat imagery I bet this has reached hurricane status. I’m guessing upgrade coming at the intermediate advisory 

Cat 4. 130 mph 

I hate to say it but this feels like watching the birth of the next great Gulf hurricane

5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

GSO maxed out at 88, at least a 7 degree bust for most tv forecasts, and about 10 degrees cooler than what GFS modeled 

5 hours ago, Stormpc said:

GFS has been bad overdoing the heat lately.  By a lot. 

We have not had that kind of luck in my parts. Another scorcher yesterday, 97.4

A high ceiling means very little in the grand scheme of things and that is totally off the assumption this gets a coherent core together about the time it enters the gulf. Without engaging in hyperbole, this system needs to be watched with extreme caution because the ingredients are present for a strong hurricane to impact the gulf coast without the usual week-long buildup 

Once this gets going I don’t really see a major hindrance to strengthening other than land. The shear vector is favorable, it’s going over nuclear fuel in the gulf, and it might get a bit of an boost from the upper level jet offering optimal ventilation. Dry air in western gulf could be an issue but if this wraps up quick these Caribbean storms have shown to be less susceptible to that unless hit with NW shear. I think the next 24-36 hours tell the tale of how strong this will get as it is entirely dependent on how fast it can ramp up before landfall 

Since Michael, I will never take a storm forming like this lightly regardless of initial model intensity. I actually think this has a higher ceiling than what models are showing. This isn’t that dissimilar situation from what led to Michael doing what it did. If this consolidates in the NW Caribbean before entering the Gulf, watch out

Franklin got shredded last night wow!!!

This system developing in NW Caribbean feels like something you’d see spin up in October, not August. The Atlantic has a late season feel to it at the moment 

GEFS tends to keep the eastern trough into the beginning of September while EPS tends to weaken it with a turn to SE ridging to start the month. These two divergent solutions offer extremely different outlooks towards the prospect of a east coast landfall and with an extremely active basin (from a wave standpoint) this needs to be watched as to which solution comes to fruition. Does the GEFS solution of keeping a trough continue to offer a barrier to storms like Franklin or does the trough breakdown and offer a window for storms to move further west and threaten the EC? Will need to be watched for trends over the coming days. My thoughts are leaning towards a window of opportunity during the September 3-10 timeframe for an east coast threat. I still think homegrown or gulf systems are the mode of getting a storm to threaten the US but that is looking like a window for something to slip through from the east 

Hispaniola used to be shredzilla for storms but recently they’ve become immune to it. Franklins circulation looks better defined now than at any point before land interaction