NorthHillsWx

To be in DC with these runs today…

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

About to be some broken hearts in here

No one is expecting snow. SW Virginia might have a crippling ice storm. 

8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

GFS trending further south once again things shaping up to be ice in some of the typical CAD areas.

Worried for @BornAgain13. That area has been solidly in the bullseye of a major ice event for days, possibly several events

37 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS is a light snow event for Southern VA and then a Major ICE storm

Yea, you’re lights out on that run

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Greensboro has not had above average snowfall/more than 2" of snow in February in ten years 

2014 was the last AN February here too. I think it has snowed in Feb/March twice total since then, both small events 

SER flexes on overnight runs and moves the boundary north and west, dramatically cutting rainfall and laughing at anyone who thought February was still a snow month in the southeast 

RE rainfall- while almost surely overdone, those amounts occur over the course of a week. Given antecedent dry conditions, this would be extremely beneficial. I’m sure some mountain areas (especially deforested areas from Helene) will see flooding, but overall this would be a positive drought busting rain. 

Honestly that storm is more believable than the fake ones that drove this board crazy last three days being there’s actually a realistic cold source 

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Not a forecasting post but I’m putting this here due to higher traffic and since it is fairly quiet for now:

SE cold lovers like myself should feel fortunate that Jan was as cold as it was as the cold anomaly there was as strong as anywhere in the globe. I’ll reiterate that the Euro Weeklies did a great job forecasting the SE US to have the coldest on the globe.
 

 This shows -2 to -4C (likely mainly -2 to -3C or -3.6 to -5.4F) vs 1951-80 base. To convert to comparison to 1991-2020 base, one can probably add ~1-1.5F making the anomaly ~-4.5 to -7F anomaly for many. One has to wonder when the next cold month will be:

Euro weeklies have been really accurate this winter, as compared to last 

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

If that much snow falls just 60 miles to my north, I'll probably go on a Snow chase that day lol

If you can’t get it, chase it

33 minutes ago, eyewall said:

We know how this goes. Best to write it off at this point.

You might need to go on vacation again, apparently that’s what it takes to get a decent snow here now (kidding)

27 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Whatever happened to the people on here that used to say "the models are underdoing the CAD." Could that be the case this time?

I’m sure they will be underdoing it somewhat but this is a fickle airmass. It’s not established beforehand and the high is sliding with the system. It’s not like we’re leading into this one with an arctic airmass and DPs in single digits

18 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You want 35 and rain 3 times in the next 2 weeks? That's misery. 

No. I want snow. But I’m not rooting for 80s if I don’t get it 

I can’t stand the bring on spring crowd. We live in the south. 9 months out of the year are hot. Let us enjoy whatever cold we can until that arrives. 80 in early February didn’t make me happy today 

44 minutes ago, Orange county said:

I have 2 inch daffodill sprouts and 25% of my Tulips are half inch sprouts

Garner  NC

Your daffodils exceed my snowfall over the last 3 years combined 

The MA forum is such a happy place right now 

35 minutes ago, marsman said:

I know there was a WRAL piece on why RDU is sometimes warmer, but I still wonder if the runway construction has at least a minor impact. Since the new runway is going to go right where the station is, anyone know where it's going to be moved?

Looking at a recent sat photo (Feb 1) is it still in it's original location?

 

I don’t know, but once again it is SIGNIFICANTLY warmer than all surrounding sites. Still a record warm day but 80 seems excessive 

First 80’s of the year at RDU! Ground temp issues!!! 

First 80’s of the year at RDU

Mid Atlantic looks to be in an amazing spot with this one

@BornAgain13 You’re going to be fighting an uphill battle with most posters on here but given your location you definitely are in the game. There will always be a ton of IMBY takes but there certainly is a stronger than normal signal your way. South of 85 is not in the game and even triad areas are on the fringe at best with this (at this juncture)

Holy schnikes DC gets buried this run

EURO is how I expect this to go. Step 1: find cold air transport. No model has realistically gotten cold air into NC yet. These fronts spilling south mid storm do not work without substantial blocking and if anything the cold air bleeds in at the ground and CAD areas see ice. Just not a southern snow setup, sorry

Not sure what the record high for RDU is today but we’re at 76.3

77.5 was the high. Unreal

One should root for overrunning. Anything amped is gonna want to cut. Still don’t see the cold push working out south of Virginia for snow. There is time but cold bleeding east of mountains like this is tough to work for this forum