NorthHillsWx

Euro looks like it’s coming in much further south this run with the first system 

The system on the 6th is absolutely critical to whatever comes next bc it becomes our 50/50 low. Until the 6th storm is ironed out it’s going to be impossible to figure out the next one. This is a highly volatile period for models with the second storm being totally dependent on the evolution of the first, so that follow up system just being present is all we can ask for. I’d say this whether it was showing a HECS or a miss to the south

I still like the idea of a CAD system on the 6th. I think something between the EURO and GFS. Don’t think this is a snowstorm unfortunately unless it tracks way south which seems to be an outlier idea at the moment but given the antecedent airmass and HP over NE I doubt the system is all rain 

If we got the 6th system I would be rooting hard for the extreme southern folks and coastal Carolina’s to cash in on the 10th system as my snowpack would be locked in lol

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am not saying it is anywhere near the same scenario but the big on in January 2000 was preceded by a couple of ice events if I remember correctly.

There was a small snow the week before and then an ice event after if my memory serves me. I remember the ice with snow still on the ground 

3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Support has dropped from the EPS and Euro. CMC is showing a rain storm and then not much. Seems like the GFS is on an island. The 06z GFS run basically moved the first storm into Virginia. The second storm is there but cold seems to start retreating right when it hits, so the third storm behind it likely won't have enough cold. However, it is all out into lala land at that point.

I have no idea what you’re looking at. Verbatim the Canadian is a major ice storm and regardless with CAD events you look for the setup before precip maps. If the setup is there models will hone in on the wedge as we get closer. The setup is there

Euro is historically not great at picking up CAD setups at range. It being the outlier is not surprising. I’m beginnning to focus on 1/6 as a legit wintry threat. The H5 setup is there and it is a very cold/dry air mass that moves in the days before. At a minimum this should result in a large area of nuisance ice 

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

Annoying how social media posts snow maps, like its set in stone. 7 to 10 days out, and the social media idiots are posting this nonsense.

This is the worst I’ve ever seen. It gets worse every year 

1/6 is a classic CAD look. If that system stays weaker west of apps, I don’t think that wedge will be scoured out and we wind up with a GFS/CMC solution. This is an ice storm look. Even the GFS is showing a strong wedge and it always underestimates their strength at range 

18z was a better run. Not there yet but better

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I don't think its time to give up hope but its undeniable that the trends have been very poor the past 24-36 hours. The means on all the globals have decreased dramatically. The QPF on the means have decreased dramatically. 

And temps have come WAY up

Winter in the southeast is a comedy 

And the walls start closing in…

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The GFS shows how we can still fail. Cold never gets entrenched and we get lots of cold rain until the full arctic blast then it's cold and dry. 

I’m going to bed and hope and pray I don’t see that run again in morning. Dumpster fire

Energy looks more consolidated coming south on the 0z than 18z for the 10th system 

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS looks like we’re about to be F’d by a Great Lakes low

Yep. Ugly

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Canadian says “incoming”

for the upstate. Goes poof east of there

Canadian says “incoming”

GFS looks like we’re about to be F’d by a Great Lakes low

Oozing with potential. Oozing 

29 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

12Z Euro shows 3-5" of snow from murphy to manteo on 1/6-1/7

3-5” followed by days and days of cold. If folks don’t like that solution for these parts you need a new hobby. No big daddy (except Canadian) but this oozes with potential. One other thing I love about the models today is they show in a variety of ways. We aren’t relying on a miller A or miller B

For the doom and gloom of 6z (lol) 12z delivered. Unreal to see snow across the suites 

EURO actually focuses on the Jan 6 wave. Interesting…

EURO is beautiful. All 3 major ops have snow for most of the forum.

Great 12z runs

There is no reason to be throwing in the towel at all. Means will jump around a lot especially with some of the HECS included as those affect the means disproportionately. However, for those who haven’t seen snow in 3 years it is totally fair to be pessimistic until it snows again. That being said, we don’t need to clog this board with “it’ll never snow again posts” or junk as there is actually great discussion going on from some of the veteran members. A few weeks ago when this place was dead, whatever, but there is an exciting pattern showing and some of the expert posters have been honking the horn for some time.