NorthHillsWx

Recon doesn’t support 80 kts. Might be leveling off. From here, oceanic heat decreases while shear increases. As someone noted, these jet enhanced storms tend to have a strong SE quadrant as it’s in line with the enhancement, very evident here

Looks like a mid tier cat 1 LF to me. Sticking with 80-90 mph peak and don’t see anything to suggest this is going to exceed that 

I definitely think the biggest question marks with this storm are with track rather than intensity. Intensity forecast seems straightforward for once and honestly splitting hairs between 75-85 kts isn’t going to impact the outcome much. What was just said above about whether it’s peaking at LF vs weakening could be more impactful as that will to an extent drive the impacts. The eastward shifts certainly bear watching as to could take the right front quad over New Orleans. The good news about the approach west of the Mississippi is it won’t have much time to build up a surge for the metro area, though wind impacts will certainly be heightened

Super low pressure for a 55 kt storm

Outside of the “weird” apparent eyewall development yesterday, this storm has panned out almost exactly as expected. It’s taken a while for the broad circulation to tighten and that appears to be happening this morning. I’d expect steady strengthening until the shear increases towards landfall, with weakening whenever that occurs. A turn to the NE may limit the shear due to a more conducive vector but seeing up to 30 kts of shear, with dry continental air, screams a half a cane landfall. I’m still sticking to my 80-90 mph max and landfall likely near that

52 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

That’s a ready for liftoff look 

So any debate about center is squashed. This thing looks good in a hurry

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A bit concerning with respect to surge potential especially if this thing comes in a little stronger. Thankfully, for the most part, coastal LA does not build in the flood zones.

As we saw with Laura- though a lot of the coast there is susceptible to surge, most of that area isn’t built up besides small towns and hunting and fishing camps. Definitely a “good” spot to avoid a ton of human property loss. FYI I’ve fished in vermillion bay and outside of one point that is developed, there aren’t many structures period around the entire bay. Very cool spot and an awesome state park 

16 minutes ago, Normandy said:

No question this is the center.  Very clear eye like feature

 

Recon found another broad circulation SE of this. While this may take over as the overall center, there are some issues with the overall storm structure still as it’s organizing. If this center becomes distinct it could intensify at a more rapid pace as it’s firmly embedded under an apparent cdo. Wouldn’t jump the gun on this going bangers yet. Also this center appears to be moving west or west southwest seemingly within the broad center.

Brownsville radar actually shows a very strong circulation embedded out there. Not sure that’s the one NHC is tracking, looks like multiple centers in a gyre 

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per this Francine is about to be designated:

AL, 06, 2024090912, , BEST, 0, 227N, 947W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 100, 140, 140, 1008, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FRANCINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

For what it’s worth at range banding features appear to be increasingly evident on Brownsville radar 

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Not your typical  hurricane!

This is an absolutely insane look for early September but ventilation to the NE won’t be a problem lol

Convectively this system is impressive. Instability and moisture are not inhibiting factors for development today 

These jet-enhanced storms are usually reserved for later in the season, especially in the GOM. But goes to show the anomalously strong trough over the east coast. Freeze warnings in Virginia tonight! As for the storm itself, I could see one of two outcomes. A strong half-a-cane due to positive trough interaction or a sheared storm that never gets its act together. Don’t think this one’s going to be eye candy regardless of final intensity. Really reminds me of Nicholas from a couple years ago. Another interesting thing is how quickly models turn this thing into a sprawling post-tropical system after landfall. It’s possible this storm could have some non-tropical features as it approaches the coast and interacts with said trough. Really going to be an interesting evolution and I think it’s going to be very much up in the air 24 hours from now. My gut tells me this maxes out 80-90 mph and we see our third gulf storm landfall of the exact same intensity this season. One thing to watch as this organizes is whether or not it can develop a small core or if it stays broad. Broad in this case where jet interactions will ultimately dictate final intensity will surely mean this struggles to reach H Intensity. A tight core will have a much better shot, despite the shear likely to inhibit it’s appearance 

GFS is screaming a hurricane Nicholas redux with the BOC wave/trough interaction 

All 5 of our areas of interest appear to have failed lol. Only chance is the BOC system currently going over the Yucatán. Even that looks to face a hostile upper level environment once over water though there is some support from models for a weak system. 

I’d say the models are starting to wake up

Snow showing up on models near the Great Lakes is pretty indicative of lessening hurricane chances north of Florida. Major east coast trough looks well established for the next 2-3 weeks. I’m, once again, not saying the east coast won’t have a storm, but given that look the odds would seem to be slim 

While tropical activity may (and will) pick up in the MDR towards mid month, models showing a very persistent signal for an east coast trough means an east coast landfall seems increasingly unlikely this season. The later you get into September and October the odds of a land falling east coast system really start to decline. Not saying it can’t happen, but odds definitely decrease regardless of overall Atlantic activity 

3.21” 2-day total. Wetness reigns supreme in the yard once again 

12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2.20” and counting

EDIT: pushing 3” now with steady moderate/heavy rain 

2.94” with additional rain falling this morning. Some places inside the beltline show 5-6” since yesterday on radar scope 

I said September 2 was when I was pressing the bust button for the hyperactive season, and here we are. 

2.20” and counting

EDIT: pushing 3” now with steady moderate/heavy rain 

1 inch and counting. Another heavy thunderstorm 

If you’d told me my MTD for August would be 11.30” but it didn’t rain a drop from August 9-30 I’d probably have to doubt that total was achievable but that is what we got! We had 3 rain events (though Debby was multi-day) that resulted in 11.30”. Talk about maximizing the events given to you!