NorthHillsWx

I’m throwing in the towel on this period. I see nothing changing for the positive. Maybe something sneaks in as the pattern breaks down in a couple weeks

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

DC weenies are going to have an absolute meltdown 

The northern trend they were praying for yesterday has been answered!

8 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

FWIW, both the 12Z NAM and RGEM have dewpoints in the single digits in CAD areas early Sunday afternoon with wet bulbs 25-30.  Having said that, there's no wedge signature or HP in the northeast.  I suspect the wet bulb will move up quickly as precip arrives.  At this stage, it looks like even Snowshoe might be mainly ice.  

TW

Yea the CAD signal with the HP has certainly diminished. Looking more and more like an in situ event. But to your point, the airmass ahead of the system is plenty cold to lock in a wedge in the most favored areas

I just checked but RDUs snow drought record would be broken if we do not receive measurable snow before April 8. Given the bar for measurable snow is so low and it’s only Jan 2 (have ALL of peak climo to go), I’d say it would still be unlikely that the record will be broken. But with each passing week those odds increase of breaking it. I’d lean towards it becoming likely (>50%) to break the record if we reach February 1 without snow. 

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

At least our friends in New England aren't getting it instead

Disaster season for New England as a whole 

Yea if the next two weeks don’t work out it’s likely we’ll have to wait for February to reload. Fab February to the rescue 

12 minutes ago, suzook said:

So now everyone is throwing in the towel because of a few bad model runs???? Lets talk when the next few models pull us all back in again.....

It’s not the ops I’m worried about. It’s the trends on ensembles. Not one positive trend in last 48 hours even when there were some big dogs tossed around on the ops

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Well it was fun while it lasted.

Is it even possible to get snow here anymore?

Models have lost the cold air. Ingredient 1 has disappeared 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

18Z GEFS snowfall: less vs recent runs for most and the run overall was significantly warmer

Significantly warmer is an understatement. Op did not reflect that 

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I mean this could still be interesting for the CAD areas. I wouldn't totally whiff on it yet.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I’ve been barking up the CAD tree for days on this one. Not our snowstorm but this is likely a warning level event for CAD zones. Wouldn’t surprise me to see advisory level ice to triangle 

29 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Was it though? 

Can kick begins 

18z dumpster fire run lol

What’s wild is this pattern SUCKS for New England. So after all the hype from some of the Mets up there, it looks just about like a curtain call until after the pattern breaks down. Definitely a southern storm or nothing deal. Wild

Wonky or not we just need it to show the storm soon. Depressing watching these fantasy storms with no EURO support

Dr No predictably says “no”

EURO will make the MA forum happy

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

12z CMC also likes southern / coastal areas for 10/11

It didn’t have the storm before this run so that’s a win

20 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is the potential the pattern has. First low sacrificed, beautiful 50/50 low ensues and we get a strike underneath. 

I will do whatever ritualistic sacrifice the snow gods demand for this forum to see the 12z GFS into fruition 

I mean my god. Model run for the ages. That’s a blizzard under the deformation band too 

Give me sitting on the northern edge of that snow band at this range all day knowing the trend that inevitably will come but I’ll take a 987 off Wilmington all day

My god. It’s beautiful. Slightly south. But beautiful 

Might relocate my family to Shreveport to see some snow 

Canadian is an absolutely crippling ice storm for the favored CAD regions

This is noise at this point but as modeled at 6z, that GLL really messes with the BL temps for the Jan 9-11 system. Not enough to rain but it cuts off the arctic feed we’d been seeing in many previous runs.