NorthHillsWx

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Dora looks spectacular this morning. This is going to be one monster ace producer as it has several more days as a major. 

Dora has generated up to 31 points of ACE already.

Dora might have etched its place in history as the most impressive microcane ever witnessed. Day after day of a tiny perfectly symmetrical high end system 

Only picked up 0.02” last couple days 

4 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

The TW that just exited Africa is looking interesting.

This wave is getting some ensemble support this evening. Wouldn’t shock me to see something out of this

Our 0.39” last night pushed our total to 4.84” for the month. 98.4 was our highest temp 

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I agree that despite already being up to 5 NS and 1 H, these very active seasonal predictions will be tough to be reached. Regardless, this is a copy of a post from a non-met at another BB that I feel is relevant regarding July:

"I think it's important to look at why things didn't develop. 95L and 96L mostly suffered from dry air (typical for July), easterly shear for 95L (El Nino shear is supposed to be westerly), and an upper low for 96L (not exactly characteristic of an El Nino either). 

None of these seem to be under the influence of an El Nino, and reflect more of a July climo than anything else. I'm not sure if an average El Nino season even has that many invests with real potential in July, to begin with.

95L also almost developed in the Western Caribbean, and probably would have done so if it didn't run into Central America. That would have been almost unheard of in a typical El Nino year with shear raging across the Caribbean."

This is very accurate as to why those disturbances failed to develop, but I guess the spirit of my post was, with El Niño forecast to strengthen through the season, these forecasts relied on a front-loaded season to verify (unlike recent La Niña years). I guess it has already been somewhat front-loaded but it is very likely westerly shear will begin to increase at some point and if we’re still middling around with waves failing to get going or tracking weak mid latitude systems, it seems very unlikely to approach the extremely active forecasts that were adjusted upward after the season began. In other words, the window was expected to be now and if we punt too far, the door May slam shut on the hurricane season earlier than normal. So either we enter a hyperactive period before that happens or the predictions will be quite far from verifying especially on the hurricane, MH front.

As always, thanks for the excellent discussion @GaWx

15 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

I'm wondering if that's going to be a theme of the season. Yes, it's just the beginning of August, but there are bad placements of southern heat ridges and TUTTs to contend with that may very well not go away due to ENSO and strong upper evacuation out of the EPAC, regardless of the +AMO. Beating a dead horse here, but perhaps it bears repeating.

That August window of activity I was counting on looks to be getting smaller and smaller. Of course, even if a window of favorable upper pattern evolves over the MDR within the next few weeks as hinted by modeling, we've still got that pesky dry air and subsidence to deal with, which isn't abnormal in early-to-mid August.

 

Not to beat the dead horse, again, but something is really going to have to flip in mid august for CSU (and others’) predictions to come to pass. With a strengthening El Niño causing persistent shear issues in Caribbean and MDR I am struggling to see where tropical development will be favored outside of sub tropical spin ups and the possibility of a wave slipping through into the gulf. Seems it’s either going to be home grown systems or really slow especially in the H and MH department. Nothing seems to be breaking in the current pattern as we are now into august 

Been an up and down month in the rainfall department (usual summer) but tonight’s storm is capping off a relatively good rainfall month for mid summer. Probably won’t make it, I’ll check in the morning, but won’t be far off the 5” mark for the month 

96L was another swing and a miss for mid range modeling. Too much shear 

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

  There's a very slight chance (~10%?) that 96L and 97L will both become TDs by tomorrow evening and also subsequently get named. If so, July 2023 would tie July 1997 at three for the most named storms on record with TCG in July in El Niño going back to the last 50+ El Niño seasons.

 And arguably, the 12Z Euro at least gets close to the two TDs by tomorrow evening.

Doesn’t look like either develop before the end of the day now

32 minutes ago, eyewall said:

what is your temp?

 

98.4 was as high as we got 

Officially the hottest day of the year at my house, for the third day in a row 

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yeah this is the time of year I hate most.

98.2 for the high. Down to 97.1 now. Scorcher

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

until the next couple of days lol.

Already flirting with 91 at 10:45

Topped out at 96.7 yesterday. That was our hottest reading of the year imby

Had a fairly active afternoon for only a 20% rain chance. Got a pretty good downpour and plenty of thunder here

Last advisory has been issued. Also included in the discussion:

“Don has been a very long-lasting tropical cyclone (including
subtropical stages) for the month of July.  Preliminary data
indicate that the storm is the 5th longest-lasting system on record
for the month, just behind Emily of 2005.”

0.35” last night. Can’t remember what time exactly but I woke up to some loud thunder very early this morning 

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not only that, but the 12Z models don't have Don reach peak strength for still another 12 hours (DMAX):

-HWRF has it drop from 995 mb at 18Z to 988 mb at 6Z along with an increase from 70 knots at 18Z to 95 knot winds tonight
-HMON rises from 80 to 90 knots
-HAFS A rises from 65 to 95 knts 
-HAFS B rises from 70 to 95 knots

 So, the 4 Hurr models already have him cat 1 and strengthen him to strong cat 2!

Agree- this looks to make hurricane status. Very impressive burst thanks to the Gulf Stream. 

Andddd it’s gone 

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Cold upper tropospheric temps over Don allowing it to overachieve in sub 26° SSTs. Cooler SSTs due to its own upwelling and development out of a surface trough and sub-tropical cold pool airmass. Still, just enough thermal driven instability now at the surface layer to sustain its core. Don't know if it will reach hurricane intensity, but it does have an eyewall right now.

Definitely a well defined storm but I doubt the winds are over 50 kts. These upper latitude storms are known for having lower surface wind speeds (in relation to appearance) bc the lack of deep tropical convection and more stable environments surrounding them (due to cooler water) doesn’t pull sustained winds to the surface efficiently. There have been several donut storms recently in the upper Atlantic, always find them fascinating

Overnight modeling (to various degrees) has really jumped on the idea of developing 95L. On satellite with the most recent burst of overnight convection you can really start to see a bit of mid level rotation within the convective envelope. This might be a case where track means everything. There is quite a lot of wind shear ahead of the system but a track near the northern islands/Hispaniola might land the system in slightly better conditions for development the given current look of the basin. I am shocked to see the intensity guidance so bullish at the moment, given the moderate to high shear environment with significant dry air around the system. 

With the tornado talk yesterday I failed to mention we picked up 0.22” here. Much more fell to our north. The farm in Louisburg had 1.53” from the same cell that ended up producing the tornado 

33 minutes ago, eyewall said:

yeah depends on the construction of some of these homes.

Upgraded to EF3

NWS preliminary rating of a high-end EF2. We’ll see what the damage survey reveals but there’s definitely the chance this was a EF3 tornado based on some of the pictures and video floating around 

Several multi-storied houses leveled