NorthHillsWx

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Steering pattern just doesn’t look conducive for a strike after DR/Haiti and maybe Bermuda. Just discussing though—I still believe we need to get this out of the Caribbean to see what eventual long term track looks like as it moves north.

Honestly a system cutting NE from the carribbean is highly unusual in August. Seems El Niño-y to me

Not sure if it’s verifying on the ground but that intense band moving onshore has a lot of velocities exceeding 50 kts

Would’ve been a cane if it had 10 more hours over water

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably benefitting from frictional convergence but banding has markedly improved in the last hour and the center is starting to get some strong storms wrapping around it with a nice feeder band to the east that should help to keep the storm development around the center. The center and I’m assuming wind field are likely contracting as well based off radar data. Velocities are also pretty high with several 50-55kt velocities showing up. I still think this jumps up to the 50-60kt range before landfall. 

Franklin may have opened up into a trough overnight. Really hard to find any westerly wind component on visible this morning and the convection is extremely ragged

Does look to be getting its act together now 

Last word on Hilary as the coverage and hyperbole really struck a nerve with me: it is now the 9th story on CNN.COM and isn’t even on FoxNews homepage the day after a “catastrophic event”. Maybe a rainstorm hitting a place that’s needed it the most isn’t such a bad thing? I get that there was flooding and there are probably some impressive videos at washes (which flood impressively after an isolated storm). I also get some places broke all time rainfall records. However, even in a desert, 2” of rain falling over 24 hours isn’t going to lead to the apocalypse. You’re talking about less than 0.09” an hour. A lot of this storm was lighter rain which is exactly what this region needed (I know I saw the flooding videos from washes). Rant over. I just think days in advance people were calling this a catastrophe and it was very clearly going to be the exact kind of rain event the region needed to put the nail in the coffin of the perma drought 

11 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

How was it scary?  

Multiple long track waves across a moistened central Atlantic with a significant decrease in shear + lack of TUTTS after Franklin is sucked north. And, a very strong mid Atlantic ridge building through end of run meaning less escape routes for anything to make it north. Never mind the Andrew-like storm that hits Florida and the Gulf as a major with another strong hurricane being pushed west beneath that ridge and another likely storm coming off the coast of Africa at the end of the run. Pretty much squashed all of the inhibiting factors of the season thus far and shows some strong storms with westward tracks as it does so 

That GFS run was … scary 

What’s the verdict on how this event panned out from a human impact standpoint? Lots of dire rhetoric going into it but I haven’t seen or heard of much in the news other than some light flooding around LA 

96.8 degrees. Ready for fall. 

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Recon descending into Franklin now. Should be a helpful mission for understanding structure and getting data into the guidance. 

As expected the circulation appears extremely elongated. It’s possible it may have opened up. Let’s see if they find a consolidated center this pass

Comparison between the basins:

EPAC: 8 storms, ACE 104

N Atlantic: 8 storms, ACE 17

I think a 50-60kt landfall is what I’d be expecting at this time based off current trends 

Franklin’s circulation seems extremely elongated on visible imagery this morning. I wonder if we’ll get recon today to examine the structure. Definitely getting blasted by shear but man this storm has some impressive convective bursts continuing 

I wonder if all this activity, though weak, may work to mix the ocean up and decrease some of the crazy hot SST anomalies we’ve had to this point. A large % of the basin is covered in Clouds and rain from all of these storms 

I mean a bunch of one day minimal TS is not going to catch anyone’s attention but Gert still being a TS surprises me. The center is way removed from the convection and looks to be completely falling apart under franklins outflow and though there might be a few 35kt winds in that thunderstorm it just doesn’t look like the definition of a tropical cyclone to me. The storms on top of the LLC aren’t even associated to Gert, it is that sheared 

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Emily was legit. Gert was name worthy for like 14 minutes. 

Im not even sure Gert was more than a single thunderstorm gust. I woke up and saw Gert this morning and looked at the satellite and immediately became confused as to what actually constituted Gert bc whatever was there last night was already completely gone. Never have I missed the formation and death of a named storm while I slept 

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 -With the upgrade of TD6 to Gert, August is already up to 3/1/0. 

3-0-0. There has not been a hurricane yet. Franklin may try 

Still no FFW with the event yet 

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Beastmode

Once again, historic rainfall over the “perma” drought. Get away from the runoff areas and waterways and let this storm fix 15 years of drought in a few days. This is the absolute best thing that could have happened for the southwest, I’m tired of everyone putting a negative spin on something that (when the rain ends) will be the best thing that’s happened in a decade to help the local environment 

For years they’ve filled the news with pictures of lake Mead evaporating and this could possibly fill the lake up. Sounds like a win to me!

45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not sure, but I spoke to a friend from LA and he said he’s hopeful this’ll act to suppress fire season. 

I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had

Other than the flash flooding, isn’t this overall an excellent thing for the region to end the long term drought? Last winters snows and rains seemed extremely beneficial but this seems like it could be the nail in the coffin to end the drought many thought would never end just a year ago