NorthHillsWx

Nicole Is getting its act together today. Bahamas radar shows an extremely pretty radar presentation. Gonna see if it can maintain convection through the minimum today unlike yesterday but hi res models are showing just that and have been by the time it reaches the Bahamas. It would not shock me to see cat 2 based on recon and radar trends if the storm can maintain deep convection 

Dry air and a stable environment are main inhibitors, per NHC. Dry air is extremely easy to see on water vapor 

https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/

High of 82.1 imby yesterday 

Crazy too being one is forecast to reach cat 2 outside of the deep tropics in November 

It was a mad dash to 1” of rain for the month but dang if we didn’t make it by the skin of our teeth. Picked up 0.79” yesterday which brought our MTD total to 1.45”. Finished with 1.30” storm total

Per Josh’s twitter, sounds like Roslyn delivered the goods

Just 0.66” for the month. Don’t see us breaking 1” 

Beast. Wow 

34.3 for the low here this morning. Didn’t get to freezing either day. Light frost out, had to scrape the windshield for first time 

35.6 was the low this morning. Frost- mainly on the roof 

Very dry look going forward for the southeast. 

Pretty good rains this morning. Should break 0.50” 

EDIT: Finished with 0.52” which brings the MTD total to 0.61”. Obviously a much-needed rain. Currently a humid 66.0 out 

Honestly, not bad structure 

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Maybe try to push up the South Mexican coast until tomorrow night's Texas cold front drives it back South end of the week.  Looking at 12Z op 250 mb winds, nothing survives in the Northern Gulf very long anyway.  For personal reasons, I hope it isn't named.

I’ve been fooled before without recon confirmation, but on visible, this looks like a TC. 

10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yeah I busted on this one big time though clearly the potential was there, the thing just took forever and a day to get the low-level structure aligned with the prolonged intense mid-level vortex / convective pulses. A lot of this was probably due to the duration of land interaction with Venezuela as the broad low was organizing. But fortunately for Nicaragua, the RMW did not tighten until just prior to landfall. Additionally, though globals were slow to intensify and suggested intensification only just prior to landfall, I lack much enthusiasm that it was due to detailed modeling of the low-level structure and land interaction, and they would have failed to show RI beyond if or if not structural issues persisted. Again, the ingredients were there, sometimes loose structure of a broad low-level envelope with multiple vorticy maximums gets in the way.

12 more hours and this thing would’ve been a major or dang close to it. Agreed with your discussion

Last week I was in Yellowstone National park during hurricane Ian. I had very limited access to cell service, and obviously models and radar. I’d like to thank this board for an epic thread that needs to be saved. Since I got back, I’ve had time to go back and read discussion from Monday-Friday and it is absolutely a benchmark system both from strength, impact, and degree of forecasting difficulty. As always, excellent discussion on this board of another great American hurricane 

This season is very likely to finish BN for total named storms and ACE but it most certainly was backloaded. Where were we on August 31 and where are we now? That’s backloaded to me. We’ll see if October produces like it looks like it will. If October fails to produce, then there may be a debate as to how late September systems don’t really qualify as “backloaded” in a long season 

I was about to post that this looks better than the 20/30% odds NHC had for it, then noticed it got bumped back up to an orange at 8. If current convection persists into the afternoon this could be a cherry by tonight. I don’t expect additional development until it gets into the Caribbean but this one could, I suppose, spin up faster than models are showing given current appearance 

2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

People also choose to build and live in hurricane prone areas, just as they choose to live in tornado alley or on a fault line. People also choose to evacuate or not. Ft Myers was in the cone the entire time.  I'm sorry for their loss but personal decisions are real. 

Sadly I don’t blame anyone but the people who choose to live in these hurricane prone areas and especially those who don’t evacuate. My family had property on the NC coast and we know the risks. TWC interviewed a couple who lost their house in a California Wildfire a few years ago. Their solution? Put everything into a house boat the left docked in fort myers… I mean I’m sorry they lost their boat (house) but at some point you just have to shake your head at the decisions some people make for their lives. 

Power came back sometime overnight. Still a lot of generators humming in the background so think we got a bit lucky. 

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

A ton of power outages piling up in the Carolina’s. My flight is still on time. I’ll give y’all my best hurricane hunter update when we do our center fix in a few hours over RDU haha

Was a rough descent and landing but not as bad as I was expecting. We don’t have power and there are a few big trees down across millbrook and in my neighborhood. Do not know rain total or wind gusts bc I forgot to put batteries in my station and with the power off…

My house lost power per my in-laws staying there 

A ton of power outages piling up in the Carolina’s. My flight is still on time. I’ll give y’all my best hurricane hunter update when we do our center fix in a few hours over RDU haha

I’ve just boarded my flight to Denver. Supposed to land in RDU at 11. Flight is still on time. We’ll see…