I do not think it is all liquid ***in this set up*** and longer range models are notoriously poor at picking up CAD. Definitely not a lock to be a rain event as depicted on the models. Need to watch this
Right, most of us have avoided a shut out and it’s felt like winter almost every day. I think we’ll get a storm. A lot to be ironed out over the next week but cold air has moved to this side of the pole and it’s within reason, especially with the southern jet remaining anomalously active, that we can get timing right on a storm to link up. The fact it’s already snowed in a crap pattern shows we shouldn’t get down to this point
Trying to stay positive before the Euro sends everyone over the cliff in a couple hours. Did throw the “lol” in for good measure...
I do think we have a chance especially with total model mayhem atm. We tend to do much better when snow shows up in the 2-3 day window than a long ways out on the models anyway. Give me some arctic air nearby and good HP placement and let the rest work itself out **takes sip of bourbon.
And the last 2 snowfalls occurred with zero arctic air nearby. Now we at least have it within striking distance. We are not far off from a good thing even with some model differences on storm placement over the next two weeks. Nothing says we aren’t in the game even some of these dumpster fire runs
As frustrating as this winter has been, unless you live s of 85 to Charlotte and Rockingham then East to new Bern and south of those areas, at least you haven’t been shut out. Winning?
Yep. That’s a cancel winter run. Good news is GFS and Canadian actually have trended better though still waiting on the 7-10 day cold. Feels like we’ve been there before...
eta: end of 0z Canadian run is pretty awesome to watch the CAD signal move in
I’d have to think this would be indicative of some snow moving into w triangle/triad. At least melted flakes. Seeing a mix here with much weaker returns
Big wet flakes mixing in with sleet and rain in Raleigh at my house right now. Not going to amount to anything but probably the 6th or 7th time I’ve seen flakes this winter. 38 degrees