NorthHillsWx

Going to have to be a nuclear September to have anything close to CSU’s prediction come true. This looks like a repeat of last August’s setup in the Atlantic, but worse ENSO for development. Honestly not sure we crack 100 ACE if the only windows for development are right off the east coast or sub tropics. No one’s seen any switch flipping in any modeling and any uptick in long range activity either evaporates or gets punted.

0.73” from the severe line as it ripped through. One of the few warnings that lived up to the hype imby. Lucky none of our trees came down, plenty down around the neighborhood. Tree in yard behind mine got struck by lightning

One of the worst wind storms I can remember since I moved to my current neighborhood 5 years ago. Winds definitely in the 60 mph range, frequent, close lightning, and a lot of trees/branches down. Lots of power outages around the neighborhood, we got lucky and ours came back on last night. Only 0.73” of rain but it was limited only by duration, not intensity

Dora has generated up to 31 points of ACE already. Dora might have etched its place in history as the most impressive microcane ever witnessed. Day after day of a tiny perfectly symmetrical high end system

Only picked up 0.02” last couple days

This wave is getting some ensemble support this evening. Wouldn’t shock me to see something out of this

Our 0.39” last night pushed our total to 4.84” for the month. 98.4 was our highest temp

This is very accurate as to why those disturbances failed to develop, but I guess the spirit of my post was, with El Niño forecast to strengthen through the season, these forecasts relied on a front-loaded season to verify (unlike recent La Niña years). I guess it has already been somewhat front-loaded but it is very likely westerly shear will begin to increase at some point and if we’re still middling around with waves failing to get going or tracking weak mid latitude systems, it seems very unlikely to approach the extremely active forecasts that were adjusted upward after the season began. In other words, the window was expected to be now and if we punt too far, the door May slam shut on the hurricane season earlier than normal. So either we enter a hyperactive period before that happens or the predictions will be quite far from verifying especially on the hurricane, MH front. As always, thanks for the excellent discussion @GaWx

Not to beat the dead horse, again, but something is really going to have to flip in mid august for CSU (and others’) predictions to come to pass. With a strengthening El Niño causing persistent shear issues in Caribbean and MDR I am struggling to see where tropical development will be favored outside of sub tropical spin ups and the possibility of a wave slipping through into the gulf. Seems it’s either going to be home grown systems or really slow especially in the H and MH department. Nothing seems to be breaking in the current pattern as we are now into august

Been an up and down month in the rainfall department (usual summer) but tonight’s storm is capping off a relatively good rainfall month for mid summer. Probably won’t make it, I’ll check in the morning, but won’t be far off the 5” mark for the month

96L was another swing and a miss for mid range modeling. Too much shear

Doesn’t look like either develop before the end of the day now

98.4 was as high as we got

Officially the hottest day of the year at my house, for the third day in a row

98.2 for the high. Down to 97.1 now. Scorcher

Already flirting with 91 at 10:45

Topped out at 96.7 yesterday. That was our hottest reading of the year imby

Had a fairly active afternoon for only a 20% rain chance. Got a pretty good downpour and plenty of thunder here

Last advisory has been issued. Also included in the discussion: “Don has been a very long-lasting tropical cyclone (including subtropical stages) for the month of July. Preliminary data indicate that the storm is the 5th longest-lasting system on record for the month, just behind Emily of 2005.”

0.35” last night. Can’t remember what time exactly but I woke up to some loud thunder very early this morning

Agree- this looks to make hurricane status. Very impressive burst thanks to the Gulf Stream.

Andddd it’s gone

Definitely a well defined storm but I doubt the winds are over 50 kts. These upper latitude storms are known for having lower surface wind speeds (in relation to appearance) bc the lack of deep tropical convection and more stable environments surrounding them (due to cooler water) doesn’t pull sustained winds to the surface efficiently. There have been several donut storms recently in the upper Atlantic, always find them fascinating

Overnight modeling (to various degrees) has really jumped on the idea of developing 95L. On satellite with the most recent burst of overnight convection you can really start to see a bit of mid level rotation within the convective envelope. This might be a case where track means everything. There is quite a lot of wind shear ahead of the system but a track near the northern islands/Hispaniola might land the system in slightly better conditions for development the given current look of the basin. I am shocked to see the intensity guidance so bullish at the moment, given the moderate to high shear environment with significant dry air around the system.

With the tornado talk yesterday I failed to mention we picked up 0.22” here. Much more fell to our north. The farm in Louisburg had 1.53” from the same cell that ended up producing the tornado