NorthHillsWx

Agree- this looks to make hurricane status. Very impressive burst thanks to the Gulf Stream.

Andddd it’s gone

Definitely a well defined storm but I doubt the winds are over 50 kts. These upper latitude storms are known for having lower surface wind speeds (in relation to appearance) bc the lack of deep tropical convection and more stable environments surrounding them (due to cooler water) doesn’t pull sustained winds to the surface efficiently. There have been several donut storms recently in the upper Atlantic, always find them fascinating

Overnight modeling (to various degrees) has really jumped on the idea of developing 95L. On satellite with the most recent burst of overnight convection you can really start to see a bit of mid level rotation within the convective envelope. This might be a case where track means everything. There is quite a lot of wind shear ahead of the system but a track near the northern islands/Hispaniola might land the system in slightly better conditions for development the given current look of the basin. I am shocked to see the intensity guidance so bullish at the moment, given the moderate to high shear environment with significant dry air around the system.

With the tornado talk yesterday I failed to mention we picked up 0.22” here. Much more fell to our north. The farm in Louisburg had 1.53” from the same cell that ended up producing the tornado

Upgraded to EF3

NWS preliminary rating of a high-end EF2. We’ll see what the damage survey reveals but there’s definitely the chance this was a EF3 tornado based on some of the pictures and video floating around

Several multi-storied houses leveled

A clean, long track, low precipitation supercell tornado. That happens so rarely here I cannot remember the last one. This was a significant tornado too.

WRAL said there are reports of injuries coming out now. Hope everyone was OK. That looked very bad with the debris ball holding together so long.

This is insane structure for NC especially on a marginal severe weather day!

Wow at the current structure of that supercell!!! Confirmed tornado on the ground. Did not expect that today!

Bad debris ball showing up on the tornado warned storm near Scotland neck

You can smell the smoke today. Disgusting

Finally got the thirst quenching rain I’d been waiting for. Much like all of central NC, that line produced heavy rain and lots of lightning. Some wind, nothing over 30 mph I’d say, and no hail, but we received 1.21” of rain

Finished with 0.13” today despite areas just east getting 1-2”.

About a quarter mile down the street is a flood. We have 0.13” with some light rain still falling

Just 0.22” but it felt nice getting something to wet the yard/garden after 2 weeks of missing everything. .26” for the day 0.43” for July

Complain and you shall receive. Getting a soaking rain finally

The misses continue… 1.5 hours of thunder and rain down the street resulted in 0.02” imby. At least the clouds and outflow have cooled it off nicely, 78 atm EDIT: Fringed again. .02” again. 0.04” for the day

Forecasting conditions to improve against a strengthening El Niño is a new one for me. I’m still thinking we see reduced activity and a BN season, regardless of water temps. Crazy to bank on August to produce a AN season in any year

It dropped our temp from 91 to 83 without any rain or clouds

Yep, that’s been how it’s gone here. Watched areas just a few miles down the road get 1”+ while we barely got the edge of a collapsing cell. 0.12” for the day which brings the month to 0.17”

Seeing enhanced activity in both the MDR and EPAC would be exceptionally contrary to climo for an El Niño season. Call me skeptical at best

High of 96 heat index made it to 106. I miss that cool May. Once again, no rain