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NorthHillsWx

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    January 8th event obs

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

    Wrapping up here as mostly rain, few wet flakes mixed in. Nothing even close to sticking. Not a total bust, since it did indeed briefly snow hard, and we were never going to get more than an inch, but I'll call it a semi-bust. Just once in my life, I'd like to see one of these events trend colder and overperform.

    Amen 

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    So in summary:

    1) nothing has changed East of the Triad. Forecast still on track. Some areas saw flakes this morning but it was never supposed to stick outside of Triad. Still on track for the C-1 forecast and I do think some areas even East of the triangle will have some surprise totals higher than that 

    2) Unfortunately, bust for the triad folks. You’ll see snow, but it will not amount to the totals we were seeing last night. Deform band has trended south on models too, so it will be a wait and see for you guys
    3) Charlotte is in play with that deform band. Actually has trended in that direction today

    4) Mountains have done well, but definitely a screw zone even there. Foothills are just getting into it. Probably slightly less than forecast there but there will be some decent snow

    January 8th event obs

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

    Update from RAH NWS 

    
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Forecast reasoning remains relatively unchanged from the previous
forecast, with main forecast changes to total snow accumulations
thanks largely to a lack of measurable snow as of yet. The back edge
of the precipitation shield was sharply eroded late last night-early
this morning and did not allow sufficient precipitation rates to
overcome the marginally cold boundary layer to support for wet-bulb
cooling over the Piedmont, so mainly rain resulted until about 1230Z
over the Triad, when the visibility subsequently decreased to
between 3/4SM and 1 1/2SM for a short time in a briefly heavier band
of snow. The p-type has since changed back to rain as precipitation
intensity has decreased. That will continue to be the case until
precipitation intensity increases with deeper ascent and the arrival
of the deformation band now over wrn NC, which is expected over the
wrn Piedmont late this afternoon-early evening, then ewd across the
remainder of cntl NC early tonight. Given that no accumulations were
observed this morning, and it is unlikely any of consequence will
occur until the deformation band and west to east change over to
snow arrives, after dark for all but the NW Piedmont, previously
forecast snow accumulations have generally been halved - 1-2 in the
Warning area to a coating to an inch in the Advisory area, with
localized higher amounts still possible. Will allow the current
headlines to continue and reassess changes with the main afternoon
forecast package.

    So a winter storm warning for rate-driven 1-2” snow... I’d have pulled the plug on it 

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

    I’ll repeat this again.  Our best shot is this afternoon and evening.  I’m holding out hope for a light dusting on top of the garbage can.  :P

     

    17 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

    I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. 

    hrrr-raleigh-total_precip_inch-0179200.png

    I agree, but the warning level snows were only going to verify if this front end produced in the triad area. Outside of that it’s been what occurs with the ULL passage and deform band all along, nothing has changed there. It will still snow from west to East this afternoon and I agree, there will be some surprises. But the triad is likely north of this feature if overnight and this morning’s modeling verify. These ULL scenarios are very tricky as they can be so localized. Someone will get 3 inches and the other side of the county sees white rain 

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    With the overnight models + radar and observations at our disposal this morning, I’m extremely skeptical anyone outside the foothills/mountains sees 2 inches. I’m now thinking this will be a coating-1 inch event at most across the state (East of Shelby to mount airy) and it will all be with the ULL low. Triad looks to be biggest bust but with observed temp profiles, radar, and mid level dry air persisting it does not appear that area of steady snow will occur before the ULL passage

    • Like 1

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes 

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