NorthHillsWx

I think one of the biggest takeaways from today’s guidance is that a more progressive solution (euro) will not work south of Virginia. 

8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Mauling so far your area north on CMC and GFS. Way too early unfortunately. Models swing so wildly these days there’s really no continuity IMO until at least Monday if I had to guess. 

Yea but if I was in the Emporia-Richmond area I’d be feeling pretty good about this system. Pretty sure everything has been burying them for a couple days now. North and south of there is the gray area at this point 

This was a better run that 06z overall with the storm setup but obviously track ticked north 

I think the SW being slightly more amped out west on these last two gfs runs is what may be trending the system slightly further north than 0z. HP looks to be slightly improved location and overall setup is excellent still. That surface low reflection where it bombs out will obviously make all the difference but this will not be a marginal temp ordeal in the snow area. It will be falling into the 20’s with that cold air source. I think for someone this will be a big dog 

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

Every little bit helps in marginal temperature setups.  On the flip side, the system overall is coming in a little quicker on the modeling.  A little slower would be better to get more of the damming high and more low level cold air in place on the front side of the storm.  As currently modeled, it's another one of these mix or rain to snow type setups for many east of the mtns as the lowest levels are the last to cool (this would be the 3rd straight storm like that if it goes down that way - the one earlier this winter, and the one in Feb last winter). 

On a positive note, there has been some trending toward more western ridging and a more southerly track of the upper wave and associated sfc lows.  That has to continue in order to even keep us in the game here.  Long way out as you mention.

A sped up system is not in our favor here. It’s January, I would take a daytime hit if that means the HP has time to get in place and deep cold air has time to arrive. Otherwise we’d burn through half the previous before snow could accumulate. Can’t get into specifics yet but the quicker progression is not a solid trend when we are banking on that strong Canadian hp to set up shop and begin to filter in cold air

Mood swings on this board are in a league of their own. Honestly flipping more than the models are on this system 

Low of 31 this morning but had risen to 34 when I left the house. At farm in Louisburg precip started as almost entirely as a snow/sleet mix for 15 min and came down moderate. Temp was about 33-34 per the car while that was ongoing. Now 35 with moderate rain and some sleet mixed in still 

1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

Another heavy frost 

Same here. If you added up our total frost accumulation this year and counted it as snow we’d probably be at our seasonal average by the end of winter...

Another chilly morning. 29 for the low 

31 for the low 52 for the high 

Anyone saying the last 3 winters are “normal” for the East coast, I’ll have what you’re smoking. From a regional and eastern US perspective, it ain’t just “you live in the south.” Binghamton, NY- you are excluded from this convo. It’s been a foul stretch, I’m sure March will save us!!!

1 hour ago, Avdave said:

4" isnt a lot. I know to the true NC residents it is, but it is rare to get 4-6" a year in Raleigh area. If I were from here I wouldnt expect a few inches of snow each year. Its tough to get that every year here

It’s going on 3 winters in a row without a single storm. The early December one was ok but for many on this board most of it was washed away by the evening. You had to be awake before 7 am to see snow fall that day in most areas from Raleigh south. Even in bad winters, we usually have ice events or major storms that others on this board capitalize on, that hasn’t happened in so long many are losing hope. Even a major system where the rain/snow line is even in N.C. hasn’t happened. And it’s not just N.C. Look at that mid Atlantic. The northeast got a good snow but that’s been it. That’s the difference imho, it’s not just Raleigh, it’s the lack of anything on the east coast with nothing remotely interesting to track besides flurries or snow showers. Getting even harder to be a snow lover here

Whine harder people. You’re whining the euro into a couple snow opportunities. Whine harder!!!! 

I guess technically I saw accumulating snow outside of the mountains yesterday. #win 

Coating of snow and a flash freeze in oak city last night

I’m pulling myself back up from off the cliff. I actually like these type systems showing on the models today. No powerhouses but no that also means less warm nose. If we can work out the timing we have 3 straight opportunities in a row. Well, maybe I’ve had one too many bourbon drinks and reality will hit home in the am. I’ll go to bed optimistic at least!

I’m surprised it’s so dead here...

I do like how models are beginning to trend to Canada getting cold. We have been missing that for most of the winter. 

12 hours ago, MotoWeatherman said:

I know I've had snow on the ground since before Christmas eve on Beech.  But I'm almost 1k feet below the Beech summit so who knows way up there.

Happy for the resorts that we’ve avoided the torch this winter. They’ve had a rough two previous years 

12 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

I hate when I tune in and see it's been seven hours since anyone has chimed in, that always spells bad news.  

Overnight runs weren’t all that bad, gfs and euro both have a potential overrunning event next weekend and CMC sets up for a big storm at the end of its run. GFS back to long range cold euro warms us but I wouldn’t say I see an established SER on any modeling and cold air even on the euro is within striking distance. It doesn’t warm the east coast, mainly keeps the warmup confined to Deep South. An active storm track with system sliding from Midwest SE to the coast, no real cutters but no coastals. Not the worst set of modeling runs by any means

Another cold start. 29 for the low. Currently a frosty 31. No shortage of freezing mornings this winter 

Currently a beautiful winter day. Partly sunny and 46 out. One thing I will give this years winter is the lack of a torch. Temp wise it has been a normal winter season so far with most mornings near or below freezing and highs in the 40’s and 50’s. Significantly better than the last two years 

Most accurate depiction of our winter

1 hour ago, Grayman said:

Lol. The weenies are too busy looking for a single model run that shows snow.  

Lol. Even the other sub forums on the east coast have slowed down/become negative. It had been hopeful until last two days despite lack of model support for anything 

17 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Or April 

I’m sure we’ll get that March car-topper that’s just enough to keep this board afloat