NorthHillsWx

EPS looks fantastic starting 1-22

Just now, CaryWx said:

hug that model now

I’m waiting for the EPS to come out but until we get within a week and something is still showing a pattern change I’m putting my money on anything that delays or denies it. 

12z GEFS was in a word: BAD

Reverts back to a western trough. Pacific reigns supreme through the run. Hopefully it remains on an island 

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The eps has been honking and honking about a model change from around the 20th or 22nd and the cmc ensembles have had it also which both those models have been scorching the gfs since its upgrad.

We’ll just have to see who wins this one I guess! 

GEFS gets a western ridge, but it’s situated too far west. That’s a cutter look late January 

06z GFS punts the pattern change till February, if at all

28.8 with probably the heaviest frost of the year this morning. At least it looked wintry out 

18z GFS op run might be the worst mid January run from end to end I have ever seen. Absolutely not even close to anything anywhere in SE. GEFS was slightly better towards the end of the month 

30 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Climatologically, February is not that far off from January for RDU in amount of snow.  

Yes, January is the best chance, but February has produced great events.  Once we get to February 20 is when I start getting more concerned.

Being completely blanked is still on the table for sure.  But so is getting a 10" storm.

Agree with this. I think the problem is all of us want to enter February with “money in the bank” (at least one event in the December-January period). Getting blanked through 2-3 of our best climo doesn’t sit well with anyone and relying on February for all of our winter weather threats doesn’t work out well. So far, any pattern change or threat remains more than 2 weeks down the road and the period until then is absolutely garbage with cutter after cutter and zero cold air anywhere near the east coast. That’s a fact. 

On 1/7/2023 at 4:40 PM, BooneWX said:

Mood

This may be the post of the winter 

Might be the first snowless winter I can remember 

45 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Nah, El Niño is going to spring up at just the perfect time to delay that and give you a March and April full of cold rain dreams. 

March will save us this winter

I got weenied for saying this period (11th-on) looked interesting a few days ago. Now we’ve got a whole page devoted to it. I’m calling this a win already! 

18z GFS looks downright interesting 

Euro has an absolute bomb on the 11th. It’s still offshore and cold air is limited but I haven’t 100% given up on this timeframe. 

18z has lots of potential from the 11th-on

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

This is a long duration torch too. This is definitely painful. I will be back afterwards likely pulling up a chair in the sanitarium.

February will save us…

Still intrigued by the 7-10th timeframe. Cold air seems marginal but it’s one of those setups we’ve cashed in on with a lead wave followed by coastal development on the stalled boundary behind it while cooler air seeps in. By no means a slam duck but these are ones that tend to be less likely to cut and usually won’t be sampled well until we get closer so there being a signal across guidance is encouraging 

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Right now it would seem we are looking to the 8th-12th range at a minimum for any hope.

I actually like this timeframe. Persistent troughiness in east. Seems like cold air source would be from NE which usually works better than MW for us. Kind of an overrunning pattern. Just need good HP 

Honestly, get the PAC right and I’ll take my chances with the NAO. We all know that our winter weather chances are dominated by the Pacific. 

23.8 here this morning. First morning since Friday we didn’t end up in the teens. Lows for the cold snap: 9.6, 19.4, 15.1, 23.8. Definitely been an impressive cold snap for there being no snowcover anywhere near us. Feels very wasted especially knowing it will take more than a week to reload

19.4 was our low this morning. Surprised it wasn’t lower, seemed destined for another low-10’s after our high of 29

48 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Not true.... pattern looks to re-load 2nd week of Jan.

Yea, just need to burn through 3 weeks of winter to get there

Long range is… depressing 

We cracked single digits. 9.6 and still falling