NorthHillsWx

UK is rain for triangle

Verbatim the triangle would have a glacier on the ground if this solution played out

CMC depicts a nice snowstorm on Tuesday. Slightly colder mid levels. I think in these situations it tends to under sample warm noses so that may end up being a very gfs-like run in reality

It has the highest potential to be a significant winter storm given the pattern and cold available of anything this season. Also, CAD events are more prevalent here and usually our “specialty.” Potential doesn’t verify to winter storms all the time. I’d probably wait a couple days to prepare as we’re still in the infancy of the cad solution but I’d definitely keep it on your radar

Yea, but wind doesn’t stress a tree in the same manner. It doesn’t prune them like ice weight does. Any weakness will be exposed, particularly pines, but hardwoods will drop a lot of branches as well. Definitely a concern given the time period since our last significant ice event

Not to fear monger, but being it’s been nearly 20 years since our last major ice storm in Raleigh, a significant amount of ice would be particularly damaging. GFS still on the warm side of guidance. I do not believe it’s capturing a locked in wedge accurately

ICON is an ice disaster

I was living in Alexandria Virginia for several years and we’d been forecast to get a crippling ice storm but got like 4-6” of mostly sleet. “Drifts” where it bounced off roofs stayed for more than a month even as we went into March and for a week afterwards it felt like a glacier

I kinda hope one of these storms turns into a 2” sleet storm and below freezing. That much sleet is pretty cool, and surprisingly not that difficult to drive in. Plus it sticks around forever

GFS takes 2 slp centers east of hatteras in a near perfect track, and we can’t buy modeled snow from either

Jake Bentley is still gonna take y’all to the playoff just you wait... I regress, no need for that pettiness. We’re all beat down by the 00z suite

Easy to rain when the cold never makes it east of the mountains

Welp. I’ll take South Carolina football fans’ approach to every season: there’s always next year

It worked according to the gfs

Praying for ice #2020/21

Positive trends stabilized. We’ll see what tomorrow brings

First take on 0z guidance: Meh...

Most winter storm potential in 3 years and I just know we do nothing but rain in Raleigh. Everything has to be perfect and then we can still fail

GFS is warm for both systems but still brings the cold and a significant storm midweek. We’ll see if it joins the bandwagon with the Thursday/Friday system or stays on its island

Observations from today: 1) a light to moderate icing event is becoming more likely Thursday night into Friday mainly from favored CAD regions northward 2) a more substantial storm is possible late weekend/early next week. Could be more widespread Likely to be another mixed bag event 3) it is becoming more likely arctic air will move in for the second half of the weekend through early next week but timing differences remain 4) several shots at precipitation next week could lead to more threats down the road, but these will be almost impossible to iron out until the arrival of the arctic air mass is determined

Think over the last week we’ve wobbled back and forth talking about trends that just ended up being head fakes. This feels like an actual trend today. Not to mention this isn’t day 7 we’re talking about... let’s see where it takes us over the next few cycles. Nothing seems to point to the trend stopping as of yet, and CAD is the one aspect of winter weather here that is frequently under modeled at range

Is there any guidance that hasn’t trended colder today? EURO, NAM, CMC, ICON, GFS have all trended colder and significantly so in most cases

Excellent post. Thanks

That’s a CAD locked in long duration freezing rain/sleet event. Globals are not good at CAD specifics at this range but you’d be hard pressed to come up with a more textbook look for a major ice event for large areas of the Carolinas and Georgia

It’s possible with that low track but imo unlikely. A 1040+ mb HP in Pennsylvania, dew points in single digits, and snowpack yo the north. That’s a CAD formula not going to be denied.