NorthHillsWx

NAM is setting up south and juiced. Will we get NAMd???

It’s the 48 hour HRRR it’s for entertainment purposes only. One thing that is interesting about this year IMBY is it’s looking likely we have 3 events that stay below freezing for basically the event. Cold air has not been the problem

HRRR looked good for eastern half of NC

If you’re not plucking out individual SREF members to post are you really living?

If we’re relying on SREF plumes we’re cooked but I’ll bite

We’re seeing differences of more than .5” of QPF across models around 36 hours out and other than EPS all ensembles have continued to trend down with precip through the day. Yet, CAMs are pretty wet even western areas. Do we trust CAMs or are we going to put our faith in globals? The differences across NC range from a nuisance event to major winter storm. I’d definitely avoid looking at the high snowfall maps. I think NE NC jacks with 4-6” and theres a swath of 1-3 that extends through triangle and south of that lies a sharp cutoff to ice. Fits climo and sounds reasonable considering vast model differences (I wouldn’t lean heavily one direction or the other)

Another big decrease. If this continues it will be flurries. That same model had RDU at 1.26” of QPF yesterday. At least EPS looked slightly better

I endorse this

GFS says cancel your warm weather plans

I don’t think they’re wrong. Maybe I’ll miss this and be happy but if anything shows a warm nose it usually wins. I really think this will be an impactful storm because temps are cold (if we get snow/IP rates) but I really don’t see more than 3” for wake and possibly a lot less south for mix area if ZR enters the chat. We just aren’t going to have the QPF to waste on mixing. Sucks. But that’s how I see it

I’d feel good if I was in a border county. And really good the further east you go up there. For wake I’m going 0.5-3” south to north. Raleigh is likely 1-1.5” with a cold slop of a day

UK

I mean even for north of Raleigh. QPF amounts vary wildly and some models have none.

This is my expectation. Think 4” is our high end and low end is 1/2” sleet

It’s a pick em of models 36 hours out. You got some showing a 6-10” snow storm for central NC, some showing an ice storm, some showing a light mix, and some showing absolutely nothing. I’ve seen model discrepancy in short range but this is wild

That decreased for most

10000%. When we lost the WAA snows earlier runs showed our margin for error decreased significantly

No major changes at all. Slightly colder upstairs for the transition line folks, noise elsewhere. But it didn’t trend worse or go to Euro. After last nights modeling collapse it feels like a win

Slight improvements on GFS. We needed that. Triangle will be happy. More snow west too

Most important GFS run of the year

They should’ve just used the @eyewall call map

How has the RGEM done this year?

ICON was OK here but big drop in precip for everyone

ICON looks a little warmer at 42

I know WRAL will be latching onto that NAM run like the Bible for their evening forecast