NorthHillsWx

31 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Maybe after 18z models come in or better yet after next 00z (27th) runs.  Let's see who bites where.  Cannot go on like this with so much differentiation 

If someone makes a thread after 00z runs it’ll be a day of obs thread. This is going down tomorrow, not 3 days out. That’s what’s shocking about some of the models trending in our favor inside 36 hours from go time. Euro will be telling. But seeing some short range guidance jump on board in addition to gfs and v16 and the Canadian remaining steady, there is a chance this thing pulls the comeback. I know the storm totals on those 10:1 models are way overblown but even a widespread 1-3” storm would be welcome by every member on here in their back yard 

1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

Solid ensemble agreement. 

What is life

In any other storm I’d say this has legs. Trending correctly inside 36 hours. In this situation, it’s more of a WTH is happening feeling 

Canadian has remained fairly consistent. Widespread light accumulation from triad east through triangle. Maybe slightly more in NE N.C. 

6 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Up until ten minutes ago, no one thought a call map was necessary for Thursday’s early morning event.  (Still might not be.)

Love how everyone’s held off on starting a thread for it. No one wants to get blamed for another lackluster cold rain 

Just now, magpiemaniac said:

It’s not going to get as warm today as the modeling was predicting originally.

Not even close...

Strange times these are with model runs... strange times indeed. GFS trends through multiple runs now to a snowy solution, para remains rock solid on its snowstorm solution, and were inside 36 hours. NAM suites say no go and euro says enjoy your token flurries. CMC has had snow most of its runs. Would hate to be a forecaster tomorrow night. Literally could be a localized rate driven 4-5 inches with a forecast of nothing 

A lot of lightning this morning

06z GFS brings snow back into central and northeastern NC 

6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

As I scroll through the last 2-3 pages of posts catching up, many folks here are simply piecing together the best attributes of many disparate model runs and calling it a forecast.  There is another common term used here.......wishcasting!  From marginal temps to timing to track there are many things insufficient to support a meaningful snow event with this setup.  I wouldn't want to be in the "I got my hopes up" camp after this one.  2.4" way down into the sandhills with no cold air source?  6" in south Wake?  C'mon son, it's time to kiss da baby.

I don’t think anyone on this board south of VA border expects anything other than token flakes at the moment. 

Overall trends for ***some**** snow have been positive today. The bleeding has stopped, let’s reel this one back in! 

I haven’t thrown in the towel for the Wednesday/Thursday system quite yet. The UK/Euro aren’t that far off (too fast) and other models have trended better today (CMC/V16). GFS is warm no doubt but the LP location is good and the storm is still on the models. If we can slow timing down it has a shot. Sure, the big dog storm we saw for several days is gone for good, not happening, odds of a South Carolina National championship in football next season are higher than this becoming a major storm in the southeast, but I think anyone here would take a couple inches of snow. That’s still on the table though not likely. I’ll give it another 24 hrs before I write that off for good

I’ll take CMC. Check please! 
 

Not exactly the model suites you want to be in your wheelhouse, when opposed to the king and GFS, but hey, at least some models are showing snow in central N.C. again. I’ll take it more seriously if the euro shows improvement at 12z

39 with 0.04” for me overnight 

Para against the world. Wow, I really thought someone from DC to N.C. would get a storm. This thing has sped up and left the cold air behind and also doesn’t allow the low to bomb out and throw all that much precip on its backside. Swing and a miss 

It puts the NAM on its skin or else it gets the GFS/CMC/EURO/UK/RGEM again 

Drove through a sleet/snow shower near Weldon a flutter while ago 

Euro was a dumpster fire for everyone 

Way to premature to throw in the towel. Still 3+ days out. If it was showing 1 ft of snow this far out imby I’d in no way feel locked in to that outcome. This is a dynamic system and small deviations in that track could make a huge difference it’s not like the rain snow line is north of DC...

Euro says no snowstorm... for anyone 

1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

Only one I can remember lurking around for was Feb 14 That thing seemed to Lock in That Sat AM then Stayed locked in all the way up until Gametime that Weds/Thursday but that was a Rare one 

December 2018 was locked in for a long time. Only questions were on the immediate transition zone but overall it was extremely well modeled 

Just now, Jwisephoto said:

Christmas 2010 storm.

Amen

As some have said, all major players are still on the field. The trends today haven’t been great but we’re not talking about a GL cutter either. Difference in a couple hundred miles means a heck of a storm or nada for most on this board and we’re more than 5 days out. The fact everything is still showing a storm is great. Imo nothing substantial has changed since yesterday which is good at this range 

0Z for 12z Thursday

 Vs 18z for same time

Timing wayyyyy faster too