NorthHillsWx

1 minute ago, griteater said:

GEFS Ensemble Members.  Check out the one at the bottom right

If that panned out I’d sell the next 2 winters and take 0” and 70’s every day and be totally content 

Just now, griteater said:

12z Para at day 9 with a suppressed option

Can’t get much better HP placement. Storm right where we want it at this stage lol. Those of you talking pattern recognition have been harping on this time period for awhile. Good to see models showing some love. I am as optimistic about the next two weeks as any winter period the last 3 years. 

I wouldn’t worry about storm specifics at this point. In these parts let the cold come and worry about the storm later. Looks like our first real arctic push this season 

1 hour ago, Grayman said:

Lol. I can never get out . I’m too much of a weenie.  

None of us are truly out, regardless what we say 

The mid-long range does not look boring on on the GFS 

On 1/30/2021 at 5:17 PM, snowinnc said:

I’m insanely jealous that DC and the mid-Atlantic region are about to get an obscene amount of snow while we get jack squat.  It doesn’t bother me when the NE gets snow but it really bothers me when the mid-Atlantic region gets some.  I don’t know why though.  Yes, I’m petty and bitter.

Well, at least we didn’t go from days and days of modeling showing a foot plus to a crusty 2-4” 

15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Chuck Copeland:  

Even after all the rain today, there’s still snow around in areas. 

This around 5:30 pm Sunday evening as we were visiting my parents (SE of Windsor, NC). We captured a clip of the leftover snow and developing fog. 
Bertie County received between 3-5”.

#encwx #ncwx #snOMG https://t.co/MyxCgaWh8y

I was up there all weekend and it was a good storm from what I saw. I guarantee you some places had 6+ just not reported. Deep winter all weekend, ground covered and in the teens Saturday morning with deep snowpack in shaded areas. 

Had a deck covered with sleet and a glaze of ice this morning near rich square NC this morning was at freezing but rising when I left. Bout it, miserable weather day in Raleigh 

It took all of 5 minutes to cover everything and now it looks like a legit snowstorm. Wind is pretty strong too. 32 degrees and SN+

Euro looks slightly improved to me just not the snow map. Better ridging, slightly more south, and the secondary gets going close enough that we may get in the party. Front end thump is diminished somewhat but if we could get the secondary involved further south I don’t think anyone would complain 

Man, why did that Sunday threat have to pop up??? We almost made it to day of with no jinx 

12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Is this down or up from the last run?

Up, slightly 

Just now, BullCityWx said:

Still tremendous agreement with the GEFS.

I mean, as we get inside 24 hours that’s pretty solid. The trend has also been ticking up. This could be either a huge fail or a massive coup from the V16 as it’s been rock steady on this one 

NWS will wait till the 00z suite before they cave. Having the euro/NAM on the low end is definitely disconcerting but even the euro has made great strides over the last 24 hours. Not an easy forecast

9 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The trend is our friend 

 

Finally...

Think a lot of people on here are going to like the 18z GFS... and v16...

0.74” in rain bucket. 48 and cloudy with mist at the moment. Temps edging closer to 50 but still a huge 24 hour forecast bust 

These runs set some up for the very rare possibility in the southeast of snow on snow 

Dew points in teens and temps in 20’s at start time... yea I’m gonna err on the side of cold with that look

2 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Lights out for me 15 miles south of GSO.  Anyone have access to the Euro freezing rain accumulation maps? 

Lights out indeed. And I believe with that CAD signal the freezing rain would be further south and east than indicated by the models. This has the look of a classic Carolina ice storm. Been a long time since we’ve had a Miller B plus established cold air in place 

May just have to hop on over to the MA forum to see some reactions to this run

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Plenty cold enough on Euro to start, look at those sub zero readings in NY

Now THAT is how you set the stage for an ice storm 

That was not the nail in the coffin EURO run many were expecting. This thing officially has legs. Every model has trended better since yesterday or at least stayed the same in CMC and V16’s case. Trying hard not to get at least a little excited 

Definitely trended in the right direction. Falling in  line with other guidance. Dynamics will make or break this storm. 

Don’t think we’re headed to the mid 60’s as the models had shown as recently as yesterday. Cloudy, misty 46 right now