NorthHillsWx

0.37” today. Currently a spring-like 61.5 and gorgeous out 

The mid Atlantic forum has created a thread chasing a 1/2” snow on the RGEM. That’s how bad this winter is 

10 minutes ago, Grayman said:

If you weenies would have jumped early like I did you would not be in so much pain. After Dec bust I stopped listened to all the gurus about pattern change blah blah blah and I cliff dove. Winter is over and has been . 

Is it over if it never began? 

Hello darkness my old friend 

@Grayman@TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

Hows the water in here y’all? I’m back 

Euro says I’ll serve you a dish of cold rain with a side of colder rain 

What stinks even more about this setup and why we’ve had some models showing potential is that the cold air IS there we just have no mechanism to get it down in time east of the mountains. On modeling it’s showing temps as low as the -20’s in parts of the northeast the day the storm system will be impacting us. Just imagine if we had a stronger low or a HP to tap some into of that… Just makes this setup that much more frustrating but also why so many have said from the start timing is everything here. We look like we’re getting the storm track we want Just need to find some mechanism to time it with the cold, something we’ve seen in some runs. Ensembles are not on our side either, showing the chance of that happening is still an outlier, but it cannot be dismissed yet. I’ll take a weak slider vs an amped system in this pattern anyday though bc it means we’re still in the game and not dealing with another cutter which we’d certainly get if this storm consolidated further west like most modeling was hinting at a few days ago. Think it was yesterday the Canadian too some areas from ice to 70’s in 24 hours 

CMC is a real kick in the groin. Perfect track, ample moisture, not enough cold push. Mid 30’s and rain

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Yeah...the issue with the runs so far this morning is the storm has become more progressive, which doesn't allow the cold to move into place. No shocker really 

Yep. And that makes the most sense in this pattern. CMC and Euro backing the energy in the SW and holding it into a consolidated system never made sense to me. These progressive slider systems are a pain to forecast and unless you get some last minute coastal development, are usually gone before they ever really arrived. We have scored on these occasionally, I think our only snow in 2020-21 winter came from a similar mode

Well 12z GFS technically didn’t kill the threat but…

Looking like a little, dare I say, consensus forming on the models inside 7 days for a wintry event nearby? Obviously it’s trended a little north but this is as close as we’ve been this year to a teachable event so I guess we’ll take what we can get. At least it seems to be trending away from a cutter. Need TPV displacement just a little to the south for more of the forum to get in but this looks like the type of moderate event that could work in this sh*t pattern 

If the Carolina’s and southern Va luck into a widespread 4-8” snowstorm in this terrible year followed by a couple days of cold… Happy hour for both the model and myself 

I’ll cash out with the 18z GFS lol

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Starting at 144, one can see how different the 12Z JMA is vs all of the other 12Z runs with the southern lobe of the TPV further south resulting in colder air moving much further south into the S Plains. At 168 you can see how much colder it is in the SE with troughing to the Gulf coast along with an Arctic high bringing much colder air in vs the SE ridge hanging on all of the others. This is deep cold as opposed to shallow cold from CAD. I'm assuming the outlier JMA is  going to end up wrong based on it largely being an inferior model, but thought it was worth documenting this in case it were to score an upset win.

If we’re throwing the JMA out on the forum, we’ve already lost…

0.64” storm total yesterday 

The storm cutting on the CMC is a very strange evolution. The energy hangs up in the Texas/Louisiana area for a couple of days before being pulled almost due north by a vort digging from the Pac NW. It seems unlikely to me that energy stays put like that. This looks like a strung out slider orientation to me with multiple waves riding the boundary. That’s just how I interpret that. Euro and CMC frequently tend to hold energy back longer than reality too so i really don’t think the CMC solution will pan out in that manner. But it is relatively consistent, much more so than the GFS 

That Euro solution would be an epic sleet storm for many. Too much of a thread the needle solution at range to take with much more than a grain of salt. If we pull something out of this pattern that’s the only way it’ll happen though. Very, very short window 

1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Well, the OP run anyway

We all know who will win… SER is undefeated this year. Sucks having a good PAC (what I’ve blamed most of our most recent failures on) but it doesn’t matter when there’s no way to get cold south of Montreal 

18z is an absolute clinic on how to flex the SER 

18z GFS says SER wins out and no one is even close to frozen/freezing precip lol. Absolute worst pattern to be in, cold tempting us nearby but a SER just making sure we get no legitimate threats so we end up with rain after rain 

Euro gets cold but *extremely* transient. 

22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Before the threat of frozen precip can arrive, there is an increasing threat of flooding, or at least a long duration stretch of soggy weather

With the way it’s been and storms continuing to cut we end up with a lot of rain but nowhere near the modeled amounts just a lot of 0.5” - 1” rains frequently enough to keep everything soaked but no flooding, thankfully. Mountains obviously are seeing more but these giant modeled amounts east of there you can usually cut 3/4 out to get the actual rainfall totals with systems that end up west of the mountains 

This is such a sh*t show pattern it’s not even funny 

18z GFS says lights out for the piedmont with back to back ice storms 

February 1-5 is our window for wintry weather in the southeast. Models have been extremely volatile but for the most part they are showing some love during this period, though each model differs significantly on which wave/timeframe that is. My take is that there is potential and we are just now getting into the 7-day window where models should begin to hone in a bit more on the evolution of smaller scale factors that will dictate our final outcome. SER will not be denied but the PAC is finally favorable and the active pattern persists. We need an overrunning scenario to score imo. Anything too amped is going to end up west of the Apps and I just don’t think we have the cold air supply with +NAO for a Miller B with freezing/frozen precipitation to work out east of the mountains. I was hoping for a full scale flip to cold with the pattern change but unfortunately it looks like it’s just going to be a 5-6 day window then a big warmup again. We can score during this timeframe, however, and there is potential showing up on all modeling with huge variance of how it plays out. Next 2 days will be critical as we sort out a hectic wave pattern in the 7-12 day timeframe