NorthHillsWx

One thing about this storm is wet bulb will not help. Dew points going in are too high. It will be purely a dynamic cooling situation. Without rates, you will not approach freezing, and snow will not stick. I think the northern piedmont and triad is in the game to see snow fall but I seriously doubt if anyone gets more than a dusting in this set up. No antecedent cold air, little evaporative cooling, warm nose quickly moves in. Not being a downer but that’s just how I see it

Pretty much draw a line from dry fork to hickory north and west is where I’d expect accumulation. Rate driven snows that can add up but won’t be a large area of heavy accumulation. I’d say a C-2” for that area with some pockets of 3-4.” NAM sleet profiles should have everyone’s attention as well. The upstate relies on a quick hitting front end thump and those are notoriously hard to predict. BL temps are not your friend nor is frozen event duration. 

15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z NAM hammers central/southern VA

You’re in the sweet spot. Jealous. 

26 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I woke up and ran the 6z gfs, and my heart sank, but I was revitalized by the euro and it’s ensembles. Can’t stress enough how important it is for euro ens to be on our side. At this range Euro Ens. in terms of reliability is the current day lakers, and the gfs is the current day unranked UNC team. If that makes any sense (I need to phase out all these sports analogies)

Poor Heels... as a Clemson alum and having won 3 of the last 4 over them, I think we can declare ourselves a better basketball school

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Either the GFS is a terrible model or we’re going to end up getting 2 rain storms along the east coast with a cold high in between during a big -AO / -NAO

They aren’t even borderline rains either. GFS has us (Raleigh) near 70 on Friday. In fact, it fails to ever break containment over the mountains with the arctic air. In one frame, it’s below 0 through West Virginia and above freezing in central NC. I’m siding with terrible model 

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yep , GFS goes from BOOM to DOOM, 6z really stinks for later next week , rain after rain...

Good thing it’s on an island. 

Absolutely no run to run variability on the gfs op. Nothing to see here, move along

15 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Euro still looked fine and is a few minor tweaks from a major. Gfs sucks but is on an island compared to the euro, icon, and cmc 

Yesterday at 12z the euro had snow in savannah and today it had ice through North Carolina. Yes it trended better for a winter storm this run but it and it’s ensembles all trended faster and much more northwest and warmer. Would not take much to catch up to the GFS. It’s so early in the game it’s not panic time but another day of this is going to drive up my anxiety 

Through 18z today there is no way to sugarcoat the trends from either the ops or the ensembles: they were not in our favor 

8 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

the operational has some crazy daytime temperature solutions

If we rain and then get that kinda afterwards it’s going to be a kick in the groin 

End result of this GFS run is almost identical to the storm that just hit the MA and NE. Almost exact same footprint. Warning signals are going off 

8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Seems like that was the case fairly close to the event as well, inside of 72 hrs either the Euro or the NAM was pasting us still.....was so frustrating watching heavy sleet for hours knowing it was costing me a lot of potential snow. 

I remember the frustration. It didn’t switch over until well past dark. It was a weird storm too, temps well into the 20’s and sleeting for hours. It was almost a powdery sleet, if there was such a thing

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Not sure of this orientation relating to our up and comer next weekend.

I was living in Greenville at the time for this storm. A lot more sleet than forecast and the changeover took forever but it was a great storm regardless. That was an awesome winter. I think we had 3-4 good events and it was COLD! Snowed in March too that year 

Good luck western/Virginian folks! Hope you guys cash in. Seems to be trending positively for you all today 

8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

If we get that much ice and these temps come in afterwards it would be devastating. 

I was in NE Georgia in Cumming for an ice storm 5-6 years ago and it didn’t get above freezing for two days afterward. I was working for Sawnee EMC at the time and we kept having trees falling in lines we’d just re-hung as the ice wasn’t melting. Trees probably fell for 48 hours straight. Some places up there were in the dark for 10 days. It was bad

Just now, griteater said:

If the wave digs into Mexico like that and it stays positive tilt, with a slight SE ridge flex, then yeah it’s just a long duration overrunning event

Long duration overrunning events are my favorite tbh

Would be absurd to get a gigantic ice storm then cover everything in deep snow before we go into the freezer for a few days

2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Might have to add this to the archives of most ridiculous freezing rain maps I’ve ever seen. That’s lights out for 90% of the Carolinas 

57 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

That map is 20-25" too low for my area (Wolf Laurel). I wonder how they come up with these totals. I'm guessing radar data is part of it, which would explain why it's off by so much.

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Map is too low for NE NC. I was there 2 days after the storm and there was still more than 4 inches easy in the shade after 2 days of melting and compacting 

Honestly it can’t jinx me bc I’m out of it but someone should start a thread for this weekends storm since so much talk will be focused around next week’s threats. Statements like “Euro coming in more amped” are getting lost in translation as to which threat we’re referring to

EURO is a SW VA/foothills/mountains special

Should clarify- for this weekend’s system 

10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above.

The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying.

The more progressive solution is the game changer. If this trend continues, expect to see a less amplified system and the 850 line progressing nw. Wouldn’t call this a a NW trend, per se, but more of a weaker system and different setup 

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah this is getting interesting quick... hopefully EURO/UK will follow suit

You may be in a good spot for this weekend. Definitely trending that way

In wake county, during a period in which we were more or less guaranteed a below normal stretch with many Mets hinting at pure arctic air, our 850’s do not cool below freezing between Tuesday and and Saturday, February 13

54 minutes ago, Grayman said:

I sit just south of that snow line. It’s a tough snow life here. Lol @NorthHillsWx will enjoy this lol

You, sir, deserve a permanent front row seat in the whining (winning) thread after the last few years. Rough times down there my friend