NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
NorthHillsWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
This started showing up a few days ago but current storm (Philippe) looks to continue running headfirst in a wall of shear. The trailing wave (91l) actually benefits from this as the predecessor storm creates a break in the shear. The two systems go through a complex interaction, somewhat like a fujiwhara effect, before Philippe becomes a remnant low and the trailing system takes over as the dominant storm. Given the complexity of this interaction, guidance for 91L is all over the place. It seems a quicker weakening of Philippe may ultimately lead to a stronger trailing system. I expect heavy swings in model track guidance over the next couple of days as 91L seems tied to Philippe’s fate both from a track and intensity perspective. If 91L remains weak and not vertically stacked, it may take the southern route and get close to the islands. If it strengthens more, it seems to feel Philippe and get pulled north towards the break in the ridge quicker. Time will tell -
2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
NorthHillsWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Maybe. I would be a bit surprised if Idalia was retired, seemed to be more bark than bite. Agree. We will have a NW Caribbean/GOM storm. We’re reaching that time period -
Flash flooding becoming an issue. If you’ve driven around the triangle today you know what I’m talking about. Crabtree creek closing in on flood stage
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These are some crazy rain rates
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Bad surge in little Washington right now. Friends boat getting washed off lift https://youtube.com/shorts/-xa-fowIOLQ?si=w-JMrlbS813iyQmK
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I think, given another hour over water, it would have become one. That last convective burst was impressive and radar really showed a formative eyewall. NHC said it was pretty much a flip of a coin and landfall winds were somewhere between 60-65 knots. Buoy gust to 83 is impressive and gusts over 70 from Atlantic beach to cape lookout.
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Just over 1” of rain here so far. Almost no wind
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This storm made a valiant last second attempt to tighten up a core as it came onshore and has maintained that since landfall
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The center looks to be going right over you this morning
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Pressure lower
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Rain is here in Raleigh. A few good gusts before it got here but wind seems to have backed off a bit
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Buoy reports have really ramped up. From cape fear to hatteras all offshore buoys are gusting over 50 with the Onslow bay outer buoy gusting to 65 at the moment. These winds should make it to the coast is the next 3-4 hours
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Onslow bay outer buoy (shared earlier) gusting to 65
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It’s definitely not purely tropical but man what a cool evolution to watch unfold especially in radar range
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That’s enough for an upgrade. FL, SFMR, and dropsonde
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It wouldn’t surprise me to see hurricane warnings coming out shortly based on that pass. FL 75 kts, SFMR 60-62 kts
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Yes. NE NC
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Recon is finding winds near hurricane force and they just started sampling the stronger NW side. Hurricane warning incoming?
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Per recon, this might be almost at hurricane strength
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Going to be interesting to watch where that NW band sets up. Could really bring some nasty weather well inland
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And we have Ophelia. 60 mph, 991 mb. This isn’t going to be far from hurricane intensity at landfall
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Scattered outages but nothing major. What you’d expect with 40-45 mph winds
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I think triangle area should be included in the TS warning
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Cape lookout (on land) sustained 40 kts Gusting 48 kts
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You’re not looking. Cape lookout, piney island, Beaufort, then pretty much every pier from hatteras north has seen 40+ mph gusts
