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NorthHillsWx

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  1. NorthHillsWx
    Also, don’t declare this storm a bust if fringe counties (mecklenburg, wake people, looking at you!) don’t get much of any ice. This has always been a triad/Virginia border storm, north. Models trends put those on the south sides of the warning areas in play, but stopped before we were ever really in the game, minus a run or two. Overall, same areas we flagged for a major ice storm 2 days ago look to be in for a major ice storm...
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Looking forward to your pictures. Your drone pics have become a highlight of every post-storm day here!
  3. NorthHillsWx
    1) Models always underestimate a wedge to some degree 2) models always try to kick out a wedge too fast to some degree 3) when making a CAD forecast, real time dew points and temps matter more than anything. Watch that then factor in 1 and 2 4) this is not a rapidly retreating high and not an apps runner. This wedge should have lasting power. Only thing I can figure would be heavy rates able to warm it from above given the hot 850’s, but that will be difficult to forecast until game time. Light rates and I don’t think that impacts this as much
  4. NorthHillsWx
    Some people never learn
  5. NorthHillsWx
    This storm looks to be of the crippling variety, unfortunately
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Sounds like a broken record today but 18z GFS continues to trend colder and further south with freezing rain.
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Hopefully some of that comes as sleet but sheesh, an entire forecast area in the dark if that panned out
  8. NorthHillsWx
    This. Freezing rain maps are BY FAR the most unreliable maps produced by forecast models. Freezing rain is self limiting and highly dependent on both mid levels and BL temp. There is no algorithm that could possibly predict the variables that need to be accounted for in actual ice accrual that could be applied to every situation. CAD events are even more difficult because of the localized nature and remarkable number of variables that any location has for ice to accumulate. However, seeing these extreme totals on many different models suites and cutting them in half still gets us over 0.5” for many areas. IMO, this storm has a real threat to be one where some areas to see high end amounts we normally regurgitate as garbage from the models. Surface cold between 28-30, light precip for a large portion of the storm, and thermal profile that is not conducive for sleet make the Triad in an extremely high risk area for a high-end ice event. This storm, unlike the last one, has an incredibly high ceiling for ice impacts. I think anyone in the Triad should be prepared for extended outages and making preparations accordingly at this juncture. The trends across all modeling have not stopped and it is becoming clear that a significant ice storm is on the way. Do we cross into the generational category? That’s tbd but this has a real threat to do so
  9. NorthHillsWx
    1”+ totals, if realized, would destroy the energy grid. That’s enough to down wires without any trees being involved. Generational would be an understatement. Look what <0.50” just did
  10. NorthHillsWx
    This is shaping up to be a devastating ice event for someone in the Triad
  11. NorthHillsWx
    12k NAM very similar to the last run overall. No significant changes imo. Maybe a hair colder
  12. NorthHillsWx
    HR 42 and pretty much the border north is sleet. Some sleet even down into the northern triad. Definitely positive trends for those areas. Freezing line looks to line up about with the current watch package
  13. NorthHillsWx
    NAM dew points are much Lower Thursday 03z than the 12z run. Teens and low 20’s to the border. That’s going to lock in a wedge with wet bulbs
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Thanks. This SLP track is one we’ve seen many times produce the Carolina mixed bag of snow/sleet/zr. The warm 850’s in this setup create the fly in the ointment. They are anomalous for a slp track such as this
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Eric Webb (@webberweather) Tweeted: Last 4 days of 12z UKMET runs. Yea, this trend can stop now... #ncwx https://t.co/u1Kt7P0aNS
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Wasn’t he the one yesterday saying models and were trending away from an ice storm and the threat was diminishing?
  17. NorthHillsWx
    I would, personally, if the decision had to be made today.
  18. NorthHillsWx
    EURO was definitely cooler for almost all areas from 0z. One thing to note is timing of precip on Thursday means much will fall in daylight. EURO seems to notice that and nips the 32 line but brings it right back after 18z. Daylight and sun angle may help some of the marginal areas during this event
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Looking hard to avoid a damaging ice storm for the triad and SW Va at this juncture. Potentially a devastating ice storm for some areas. For points S and E it looks to be nuisance to moderate but as always it will be an extremely tight gradient between damaging and nothing.
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Friend in Columbus Ohio just had freezing rain and 17 degrees while just a day earlier they’d expected all snow. Thankfully it switched over to mostly sleet but it did rain well into the teens...
  21. NorthHillsWx
    CMC is a major ice storm. Maybe a degree or two cooler than previous run for CAD areas.
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Significantly colder than 00z for sure
  23. NorthHillsWx
    ICON keeps much of Triad in the 29-30 range for much of the event.
  24. NorthHillsWx
    If I was making a forecast for this based on WSW criteria at this juncture, I’d draw a line from Henderson to Hickory. North of that would be a WSW with a >50% confidence of verifying. Go one county south and east (watches just issued) and I would put your odds of verifying at 30-50%, decreasing from NW to SE. Next tier of counties (including Wake) just outside the current watch would be <30%. WSW gradient would likely be somewhere in the most recent watches posted (like Durham county). Thats how I see things and I think RAH has it right. GSP seems to be waiting to pull the trigger but I would expect watches with the afternoon package. To be frank, I’m surprised RAH issued watches this early in the game. They usually are more conservative
  25. NorthHillsWx
    +10 850’s would seem to be anomalous in this setup
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