NorthHillsWx

GFS coming in stronger and further west

Well, PTC has been designated off the Florida coast. Models have really honed in on the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras as a landfall threat. Models are also indicating this could become fully tropical before landfall, and possibly strengthen to a high-end TS. As a short notice event, folks should probably prepare for the equivalent of a hurricane landfall. The forecast track also could be nudged west, as some models are showing. Areas from the Triangle-east need to pay attention. This is likely to produce higher impacts than Idalia for the state.

Cape Fear just got NAM’d

Quite a few members of both EPS and GEFS suites get this below 990 mb before coming ashore. While it’s of non tropical origin and winds will likely be lower as compared to a tropical cyclone at equal pressure, I do not think a storm near hurricane force is off the table. For folks on the coast that’s what I’d prepare for.

I’m beginning to think this one might become quite interesting for us NC folks

Not that this will be strong enough to cause that many problems, but I do worry lack of lead up prep time will catch some people off guard especially if it comes in as a high-end TS. We have a 45 boat sitting in an in-water slip in. wanchese NC. We are going to head down tonight to secure it. Thankfully with the full moon a week away tides won’t be too severe but this seems like a 2-4 ft water rise for places in the sound, regardless of tropical classification

Everything has trended towards a stronger, more tropical system since this time yesterday. Euro has jumped into GFS camp

We have had at least 1 active storm every day since 8/20. So for a month straight, today, the Atlantic has had an active storm. That’s incredible

Im sure others saw but 12z GFS brought a borderline hurricane into cape lookout

I said in 8-10 days it will begin to become more hostile. It still looks that way but in 6-8 days now. That doesn’t apply to the current wave which may develop before modeled shear increases, which looks substantial in MDR

Very pretty satellite. Obviously not a high end storm but great symmetry, outflow, and large eye

FINALLY the MDR is showing signs or relaxing. Increasing shear values start in the next 8-10 days and models are mixed on development until then. It’s been a wild ride for an El Niño year and one of the most active MDR seasons in awhile (recency bias). Thankfully the El Niño steering was in place allowing all of the storms to recurve. I think our attention rightfully turns to the NW Caribbean/homegrown scenarios for the rest of the season.

I think “large area of gales” and term you used “disastrous” was the reason for being weenied. Large gales/mid range tropical storms are impactful, and can be damaging, but disastrous is, ehhh, overkill?

Ahhhh, the old truck tire

Lee, Franklin, Idalia, and climo have laid down a protective barrier for the east coast for anything coming from the east the rest of this season.

It’s kind of an unconventional way (looks like it sucked in dry air vs unusual formation through subsidence) but Nigel definitely appears to be showing an eye this morning. Given the eye size and dry air in northern part of the circulation, RI should be limited. I think cat 3 is the ceiling here

Getting “the look” this evening

Can’t wait to see all the videos of 45 mph wind, rough ocean and sea spray tomorrow

Exactly. Models nailed this. 80+ kts and no rain. That’s definitely the non tropical sting jet

Recon matches what we all saw on satellite: Lee is losing tropical characteristics quickly. More or less the temp profile of a front and the highest winds are well away from the center. That NW band actually has the first hurricane-force SFMR values seen in the last couple flights

Going to be our 4th major and likely another cat 4 if guidance is to be trusted. What a season

Recon is… unimpressive

Did no expect the core to completely disappear this soon.

With yet another long track storm possible next week, it’s worth noting that Atlantic ACE has exceeded 100 units this morning and with two active storms plus the future Nigel on the way, that value will continue to increase through next week. We are now running well ahead and likely to exceed normal seasonal values if early forecasts for Nigel verify. Pretty impressive for an El Niño year

Not sure any international agency would’ve prevented what happened in Libya, sadly.