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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    Yea, this is going to end up as a major bust for the warning areas. Some may reach 0.25 but nowhere near the 0.50+” predicted
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Still some icing in trees but looks like it’s above the ground. Temp up to 32.2 from a low of 31.4
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Definitely is. We’ve been just far enough East to catch this broken band all morning. I’m well over a half inch qpf since midnight. Obviously our temps are borderline here but we probably have 0.10 glaze now imby. I’d think wake forest/rolesvilla/Louisburg would have a pretty thick coating if we’re getting it just north of Raleigh. Our temps are rising now so we’re probably about done
  4. NorthHillsWx
    https://postimg.cc/WD9bxr1L Starting to get some sagginess to the trees here.
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Yep. Upstream shows that mid levels were indeed even warmer than expected. However, temps at the surface have not been the issue. If anything, we (Raleigh) are running a bit below what the models had for us. We’ve been fluctuating between 31.4-31.6 here for a while and have a solid glaze. I think if more precip was involved this would have verified. Funny we were all worried about temps busting but looks like it was precip
  6. NorthHillsWx
    I have an office job with Duke energy and only occasionally get called in for storm duty, but I’ve been on call since 5pm yesterday and know we brought crews up from Florida for this event. Over preparation beats being surprised, but yea, could be a lot of wasted man hours and time on this one
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Looking like a significant forecast bust for the triad. I’m not seeing the moisture that was supposed to be there. Good for people who like power
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Actually colder here than I thought we’d get. We’ve dropped to 31.4 with light freezing rain and a pretty good glaze now
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Might not be temps that save the triad, but a complete lack of qpf
  10. NorthHillsWx
    Nice glaze forming now. Temp has dropped and rates have lightened so we’re getting better accumulation. Not expecting much but it is pretty
  11. NorthHillsWx
    We have a light glaze on everything elevated now that I can see. Temp 31.7 DP 30.9
  12. NorthHillsWx
    We have dipped to freezing here as I wake up. Actually sounds like some sleet banging on the window. 31.9/31. Not sure if there’s a glaze yet or not
  13. NorthHillsWx
    NE wind has really picked up. Stepped outside for dinner and it had that “storms a coming” feel to it
  14. NorthHillsWx
    If we had a stronger HP this would include a lot more of us tomorrow. Those single digit readings in Pennsylvania...
  15. NorthHillsWx
    I know it’s noise at this point, but the 18z gfs was fairly significantly warmer than 12z
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Clouds have moved into the Raleigh area. Any potential for radiational cooling is gone. Temp 44, DP 25. Not looking like the immediate Raleigh area is at risk for exceeding ice expectations. Usually need that DP in the teens to around 20 to get it done here
  17. NorthHillsWx
    This has been the fly in the ointment for this forecast for DAYS. It’s inexplicably warm for a LP track such as this. The 2002 event had +5 850’s and some models, as you pointed out, are predicting nearly double that, an absolute mid level torch! My thoughts are they are overdone somehow. Will be interesting to see how the mid levels actually play out through tomorrow, I have a gut feeling it’s overdone and models are too warm based on the warm 850’s, but we will see. As you said, uncharted territory
  18. NorthHillsWx
    While an interesting note, the air this system will be working with here has absolutely no connection to the cold air that settled west of the apps. I’d be looking north of here for temp/dew point trends vs model outputs in terms of verification of our winter event
  19. NorthHillsWx
    0.5“-0.75” and “scattered” outages...
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Imo no. 850s +5-7 seems too warm for sleet. 925’s are marginally conducive for sleet and i think that’s what the NAM is catching, but south of the va border looks like a freezing rain event to me with limited sleet
  21. NorthHillsWx
    12k keeps a large area of sleet through the storm. Could be the saving grace
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Currently 45.4 and DP of 24, both down a degree since last time I checked about and hour ago.
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Flash flood watch. Now I’m positive that will verify
  24. NorthHillsWx
    I will promise you this: if precip holds off in any area until much after 12z, that area will not receive an ice storm, lol
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Biggest reason why is it keeps almost all precip west through 12-15z. Verbatim, Raleigh wouldn’t even see steady precip until around 15z. No wet bulbing east of precip
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