NorthHillsWx

It just seems unreasonable at this time to put 11 hurricanes on any forecast this year. It’s mid August and we have had 1 (barely) hurricane with no sign of any forming through late month. Getting 10 storms in September/October alone would be busy but 10 hurricanes then sounds ludicrous based on what we’ve seen to this point. Someone can save this post to remind me I said this when that happens but that’s a comical forecast to me though I guess the point is the median lies with an above average season when the dust settles

Not exactly sticking their necks out with that forecast haha. A spread in numbers from normal to way above in every category.

Dora has accumulated an impressive ACE of over 42. With a couple days left of the system maintaining MH status, this storm will cross 50 and potentially exceed a value of 60+ ACE. Absolutely an incredible storm.

I still think our best shot this season is going to be homegrown systems from decaying cold fronts. With the eastern trough being a somewhat prominent feature, this should allow fronts to make it to, and decay over the gulf/southwestern Atlantic. El Niño climo typically favors this setup for development. As we get into September, more and more fronts make it into the gulf/off the Florida coast. That is when and where I think this hurricane season picks up

This is running into a wall of shear on that model. There should be the climo uptick in waves coming off the African coast but the wall of shear from the TUTT will make life difficult even for the strongest waves moving over the central MDR. GFS shows a better shear environment in this range though it disagrees with its ensembles, which hold the TUTT strong through the period. One thing that does bode well for maybe an uptick in activity in mid-late month period is the eastern Atlantic seems to moisten up considerably. Assuming some well formed waves exit the African coast they should have a decent chance of developing right off the bat, even if they get sheared apart entering the central Atlantic.

Potential that the Most damaging storm of the year never came within 100 miles of land

Unlikely. With El Niño strengthening into the fall this was widely viewed as a front loaded season. It would have to strongly diverge strongly from ENSO to see an extended season

Going to have to be a nuclear September to have anything close to CSU’s prediction come true. This looks like a repeat of last August’s setup in the Atlantic, but worse ENSO for development. Honestly not sure we crack 100 ACE if the only windows for development are right off the east coast or sub tropics. No one’s seen any switch flipping in any modeling and any uptick in long range activity either evaporates or gets punted.

0.73” from the severe line as it ripped through. One of the few warnings that lived up to the hype imby. Lucky none of our trees came down, plenty down around the neighborhood. Tree in yard behind mine got struck by lightning

One of the worst wind storms I can remember since I moved to my current neighborhood 5 years ago. Winds definitely in the 60 mph range, frequent, close lightning, and a lot of trees/branches down. Lots of power outages around the neighborhood, we got lucky and ours came back on last night. Only 0.73” of rain but it was limited only by duration, not intensity

Dora has generated up to 31 points of ACE already. Dora might have etched its place in history as the most impressive microcane ever witnessed. Day after day of a tiny perfectly symmetrical high end system

Only picked up 0.02” last couple days

This wave is getting some ensemble support this evening. Wouldn’t shock me to see something out of this

Our 0.39” last night pushed our total to 4.84” for the month. 98.4 was our highest temp

This is very accurate as to why those disturbances failed to develop, but I guess the spirit of my post was, with El Niño forecast to strengthen through the season, these forecasts relied on a front-loaded season to verify (unlike recent La Niña years). I guess it has already been somewhat front-loaded but it is very likely westerly shear will begin to increase at some point and if we’re still middling around with waves failing to get going or tracking weak mid latitude systems, it seems very unlikely to approach the extremely active forecasts that were adjusted upward after the season began. In other words, the window was expected to be now and if we punt too far, the door May slam shut on the hurricane season earlier than normal. So either we enter a hyperactive period before that happens or the predictions will be quite far from verifying especially on the hurricane, MH front. As always, thanks for the excellent discussion @GaWx

Not to beat the dead horse, again, but something is really going to have to flip in mid august for CSU (and others’) predictions to come to pass. With a strengthening El Niño causing persistent shear issues in Caribbean and MDR I am struggling to see where tropical development will be favored outside of sub tropical spin ups and the possibility of a wave slipping through into the gulf. Seems it’s either going to be home grown systems or really slow especially in the H and MH department. Nothing seems to be breaking in the current pattern as we are now into august

Been an up and down month in the rainfall department (usual summer) but tonight’s storm is capping off a relatively good rainfall month for mid summer. Probably won’t make it, I’ll check in the morning, but won’t be far off the 5” mark for the month

96L was another swing and a miss for mid range modeling. Too much shear

Doesn’t look like either develop before the end of the day now

98.4 was as high as we got

Officially the hottest day of the year at my house, for the third day in a row

98.2 for the high. Down to 97.1 now. Scorcher

Already flirting with 91 at 10:45

Topped out at 96.7 yesterday. That was our hottest reading of the year imby

Had a fairly active afternoon for only a 20% rain chance. Got a pretty good downpour and plenty of thunder here