NorthHillsWx

14 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The Euro, ICON, GEM, NAM, RGEM all show Friday. GFS is a clown show. 

GFS is warm for both systems but still brings the cold and a significant storm midweek. We’ll see if it joins the bandwagon with the Thursday/Friday system or stays on its island 

Observations from today:

1) a light to moderate icing event is becoming more likely Thursday night into Friday mainly from favored CAD regions northward

2) a more substantial storm is possible late weekend/early next week. Could be more widespread Likely to be another mixed bag event 

3) it is becoming more likely arctic air will move in for the second half of the weekend through early next week but timing differences remain 

4) several shots at precipitation next week could lead to more threats down the road, but these will be almost impossible to iron out until the arrival of the arctic air mass is determined 

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Doesn't take much, let's see if the guidance keeps the trend going 

Think over the last week we’ve wobbled back and forth talking about trends that just ended up being head fakes. This feels like an actual trend today. Not to mention this isn’t day 7 we’re talking about... let’s see where it takes us over the next few cycles. Nothing seems to point to the trend stopping as of yet, and CAD is the one aspect of winter weather here that is frequently under modeled at range 

Is there any guidance that hasn’t trended colder today? EURO, NAM, CMC, ICON, GFS have all trended colder and significantly so in most cases 

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I'd expect to see a lot of waffling over the next few days, however this is a much more traditional look for a winter storm in favored areas in the Southeast (GA/SC/NC). Especially ice. I think in the end that will win out. The most important feature on this one will be how the 50/50 low trends (see below over the N Atlantic). If this trends weaker, this will be an Apps cutter. We need this to be stout and lock in the HP over the NE. The odds are in our favor as the atlantic has been pretty good for the past month and conducive for lower heights in this area due to the -AO/NAO. To be continued....

 

Excellent post. Thanks

2 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Yeah no way that happens with that look. 

That’s a CAD locked in long duration freezing rain/sleet event. Globals are not good at CAD specifics at this range but you’d be hard pressed to come up with a more textbook look for a major ice event for large areas of the Carolinas and Georgia 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Verbatim it warms up from CLT to RAH 

It’s possible with that low track but imo unlikely. A 1040+ mb HP in Pennsylvania, dew points in single digits, and snowpack yo the north. That’s a CAD formula not going to be denied. 

Major winter storm incoming

Well 186 is as textbook a winter storm look as you could get. Perfect 1044 placement and developing gulf low. 

1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

Snow breaking out over a good chunk of Texas at 174. 

That is, umm, a cold look for the Carolinas 

EURO at 174 has a 1046 HP over the GL and a gulf low. Likely going to be a suppressed solution but I’ll take that look a week out

16 minutes ago, BigWeather said:

I'd much, much, muuuuuch rather have a cold rain at 33F to any significant amount of freezing rain. December 2002 (I think it was, the last significant ice in the Triangle) was a nightmare. I was sawing and carrying tree limbs for many a weekend thereafter and it took over a decade for nearly all the widowmakers to finally come down.

I remember sleeping 6 nights next to the fireplace with my family and having to shower at a friends house. No damage at our house but took weeks to clean up fallen trees at our farm in Franklin county. Also remember it snowing to begin that storm and sticking from the first flake. Must have been very cold leading up to it

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

You can have all the ice 

I just want to verify a winter storm warning this winter. Be it ice or snow, bring it on!

Also, if I’m getting ice in Raleigh, you’re likely getting sleet or snow in Winston Salem. Win-win

Well, some people on this board may have been a bit too quick to press the “cancel” button on this winter from today’s 12z suite so far. That’s all I’ll say. Many, many more runs to go but Friday through next week gives us some pretty awesome potential. Not saying we’ll get a flake or ice pellet but winter most definitely looks to be alive and well 

3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

If it's a mostly snow event then you may be right. I think Friday has some real zr/ip potential. 

Is it bad to say I kind of want an ice storm? It’s been so long since we had one in Raleigh that amounted to anything other than a nuisance event. Definitely helps I have a generator that’s been sitting unused for 3 years 

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

If we are to get a decent storm (NC) my hunch is it will not be this weekend but mid next week as has been hinted at back-and-forth forth for some time now on various modeling.

Friday has legs imo. Won’t be a snowstorm but potentially a disruptive winter event if modeling trends continue. Most of us had written it off but it’s trended colder and colder for a couple days now.

GFS gives Houston consecutive hits from sleet and freezing rain. Wow 

GFS trended much colder with the stronger weekend system as well 

Definitely the signal for a mixed precip event Friday. These CAD storms tend to trend colder as time goes on. Definitely getting interesting 

3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Totally agree here.  I've seen 1020 get it done before (but not by much).  

TW

For the triangle (Raleigh) area we need ever mb we can get as we’re not a favored CAD location. It was more of an imby post but agreed it’s enough to work if placement is correct 

4 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Wouldn't take much adjustment to make that map look a little better. I think this time frame will trend colder for sure so we shall see.  

22 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

You would think with what looks like a good High Pressure to the North?

1034 is just barely workable. Placement would have to be perfect 

25 degrees this morning with heavy frost once again. 

6 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The Pacific is too active and not enough ridging out west. This allows the SE ridge to flex. We have cold air spilling into the southern plains instead.

 

It has been the problem all winter. We have had the best Atlantic setup in a decade but it has basically been canceled out due to the Pacific. I think having the -NAO it has allowed us a little snow this winter. If we didn't have the -NAO/AO, we would have most likely torched

Yep. This. At least cold air is in striking distance now but that SE ridge seems to always win out when it’s established. 

GEFS is significantly better than the op but yea, not great 

Just going to leave this here.